Key Points **1. Market Outlook and Leadership Changes**: * The report emphasizes the importance of remaining nimble amidst changing market leadership due to potential uncertainty introduced by the recent election outcome. * The market has shifted from pricing a reflationary outcome in the spring, to a growth risk scenario in the summer, and now to a reaccelerating growth backdrop. * The report maintains a wider than normal bull versus bear case skew, with base case: 6,500; bull case 7,400; bear case 4,600. **2. Base Case Outlook**: * The base case forecasts a 21.5x P/E multiple on 12-month forward (2026) EPS of $303, equating to a 6,500 forward 12-month price target. * A healthy mix of mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion drives 2025 and 2026 EPS growth forecasts of 13% and 12%, respectively. * The report expects the recent broadening in earnings growth to continue in 2025 as the Fed cuts rates into next year and business cycle indicators continue to improve. **3. Investment Recommendations**: * The report remains long quality cyclicals, as Fed rate cuts and stabilizing macro indicators are supportive of relative outperformance of this cohort. * The report prefers Financials and quality cyclicals, as the outcome of the US election raises the likelihood of a lighter regulatory environment and a potential rebound in animal spirits. **4. Sector Analysis**: * **Financials**: The report upgrades Financials to overweight, driven by de-risked set-up into earnings season, accelerating capital markets activity, and compelling relative valuation and positioning. * **Tech**: The report prefers Software over Semis, as Software relative earnings revisions point to a catch up in relative performance. * **Consumer Discretionary**: The report remains underweight, as the combination of potential incremental tariffs and limited pricing power is likely to continue to weigh on Consumer Discretionary Goods stocks. * **Consumer Staples**: The report remains underweight, as leadership continues to skew away from defensives. **5. Risks**: * Higher rates/term premium * Stronger dollar against easy compares * Y/Y price momentum vs. earnings revision breadth * Potential growth risk scenario leading to multiple compression * Excess liquidity waning and potentially weighing on valuations **6. Bull/Bear Case Scenarios**: * **Bull Case 1**: Policy changes reduce crowding out and private economy blossoms. * **Bull Case 2**: Rebound in animal spirits drives organic growth reacceleration. * **Bear Case 1**: Hard landing/recession. * **Bear Case 2**: Higher rates pressure valuation – inflation surprises to the upside and the Fed is forced to consider hiking again or fiscal sustainability concerns drive the term premium materially higher. **7. Stock Screens**: * The report includes several stock screens for idea generation, including Quality Cyclicals, Potential M&A Targets, Potential Election Beneficiaries within Industrials, High Quality SMID Caps with Lower Interest Rate Exposure, and others. **8. Consumer Outlook**: * The report expects a little more holiday cheer this year but spending isn't likely to increase across all categories as consumers remain selective. * Higher-income consumers will likely still drive the strength, with three trends to consider: reacceleration in goods spending, bifurcation by income among consumers, and real growth in holiday spending potentially outpacing that of last year. **9. Sector Preferences Summary**: * Overweight: Utilities, Financials, Industrials, Energy, Comm. Services, Health Care, Tech * Neutral: Materials, Real Estate, Consumer Services * Underweight: Consumer Discretionary Goods, Staples

Key Points Industry and Company * **Industry**: Lithium-ion battery materials, specifically silicon-carbon composite anode materials. * **Company**: SiBo Technology, a company specializing in the research and development of silicon-carbon composite anode materials. Core Views and Arguments * **SiBo Technology's R&D and Production**: SiBo Technology has been researching and developing silicon-carbon composite anode materials since 2015. The company has developed various products, including desert silicon-carbon, ordinary silicon-oxygen, jade silicon-oxygen, and new silicon-carbon. It also holds 6 national patents and established a research and development center in 2018. * **Production Expansion**: SiBo Technology has established a 5,000-ton lithium battery silicon-carbon composite material and special adhesive project in Meishan City, Sichuan Province, with an investment of 5.6 billion yuan. The project is expected to be completed in 2024 and will have a production capacity of 5,000 tons of silicon-carbon composite materials and 10,000 tons of organic silicon sealant. * **Market Demand and Growth**: The demand for silicon-carbon composite anode materials is growing, driven by the increasing use of lithium-ion batteries in various applications, including 3C products and electric vehicles. SiBo Technology's products are gradually achieving sales, with silicon-oxygen products mainly meeting the needs of 3C battery customers and new silicon-carbon products mainly used for power battery customers. * **Cost Reduction and Technological Advancements**: The cost of silicon-carbon composite anode materials has decreased over the years, and technological advancements have improved their performance and stability. However, there are still challenges to be addressed, such as the cost of raw materials, equipment, and process optimization. Other Important Points * **Silicon-carbon composite anode materials are expected to replace traditional silicon-oxygen anode materials in the future due to their higher energy density and longer cycle life**. * **The market for silicon-carbon composite anode materials is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by the increasing demand for lithium-ion batteries**. * **SiBo Technology is well-positioned to benefit from the growing market for silicon-carbon composite anode materials due to its strong research and development capabilities and production capacity**. * **The company is actively exploring new applications for its silicon-carbon composite anode materials, including solid-state batteries**. References * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='3'] * [doc id='4'] * [doc id='7'] * [doc id='10'] * [doc id='12'] * [doc id='13'] * [doc id='14'] * [doc id='16'] * [doc id='17'] * [doc id='18'] * [doc id='19'] * [doc id='20'] * [doc id='21'] * [doc id='22'] * [doc id='23'] * [doc id='24'] * [doc id='25'] * [doc id='26'] * [doc id='27'] * [doc id='28'] * [doc id='29'] * [doc id='30'] * [doc id='31'] * [doc id='32'] * [doc id='33'] * [doc id='34'] * [doc id='35'] * [doc id='36'] * [doc id='37']

会议要点： 的货又无法使用，价格自然上涨。 1、锂矿市场现状与价格走势 当前锂矿市场的现货库存非常紧张，特别是碳酸锂的库存极低，现货市场无法满足大批量采购需求。 宁德时代等企业由于需求旺盛，不得不转向期货市场采购。这种现象反映出碳酸锂市场趋向于紧平衡 状态，一旦需求端超预期，价格可能会快速上涨。 由于锂矿价格低迷，许多上游矿企选择减产或停产，导致供给侧收缩。这种趋势在短期内难以逆转， 海外锂矿公司甚至出现合并现象以应对经营困境。高成本项目在未来1到2个季度内可能会继续减产或 关停，进一步加剧供给端的收缩。 2、需求端预期与市场机会 需求端的增长预期较为乐观，尤其是欧洲市场和美国储能订单的增长将推动需求。中国市场通过以旧 换新补贴政策，预计新能源车的需求增速可维持在20%左右。储能市场由于美国即将征收关税，预计 会有抢出口订单，这将超出市场预期。 明年一季度锂矿价格可能会稳定在8到9万元的水平，随着库存的持续下降，市场可能会在明年中期出 现供需紧张的局面。一旦政策支持或市场需求超预期，锂矿价格可能会突破当前预期，形成价格上涨 的机会。 3、投资建议与风险提示 当前锂矿板块的上涨有其合理性，供给端的持续收缩和需求 ...

各位投资者大家下午好我是太原剑芯的首席宾声明那么今天我们非常荣幸请到了五矿新能固态电池的负责人白博士白总来跟我们分享一下公司在固态电池这边的一些进展那我们其实在三季报的交流的时候也可以看到公司其实也跟这个一些头部的车企有一些 比较深入的接触而且在这个固态电池领域也是介入的比较早那么接下来我们就把时间先交给白总请白总帮我们介绍一下公司目前这块的一个最新的进展好吗谢谢白总您好各位好我这边的话自我介绍一下我是五矿新能前进材料研发负责人白立雄然后那个 我大概介绍一下我们公司的这个就两个层面去介绍一方面是我们公司的固态方向的一个进展还有就是我们对于我们公司对于固态这个行业的一些就是看法的然后我们我们公司的话就是第一个从策略上的话我们应该是有两条路在走第一条路的话是想着从我们产业链整个产业链固态电车产业链的问题上去 识别各种问题点和未来的风险那么这个的话主要是针对的是什么?针对的是我们其实现在大家每一家公司在做估算的公司可能企业都在着重去了解一些什么能量密度呀然后那个就是 一些这种是加工的成本问题其实对于我们整个产业链后端遇到的这些问题还没有完全去了解到所以我们一方面在策略上来讲第一条路就是我们会从产业链就用一些 也比较 ...

Tearful goodbye Nadal ends glittering career · · Page 44 Moflin! Wednesday My week 20 November 2024 rom £2.30 for subscribers Meet with an Alpet Fears grow over Russian hybrid warfare campaign against west Kremlin vows to respond after US allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles Andrew Roth Washington Shaun Walker Pjotr Sauer The US state department said it was "incredibly" concerned about Rus- sia's campaign of hybrid warfare against the west, amid fears it will escalate following Ukraine's first use of U ...

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Industry and Company * **Industry**: Solid-state battery and semi-solid state battery * **Company**: Changyang Technology Core Points and Arguments 1. **Product Overview**: Changyang Technology's product is a high-porosity electrolyte composite membrane, primarily used in solid-state and semi-solid state batteries. This product offers advantages such as high energy density, mechanical strength, stability, and safety compared to traditional batteries. 2. **Product Development and Customer Feedback**: Changyang Technology began to develop the separator business in 2022, with both dry and wet processes. The dry process has been stable in supply, while the wet process initially faced challenges in toughness and failed to meet the verification requirements of CATL. However, with the development of new batteries by CATL and other customers, the product has met the requirements in new application areas and is currently in small-scale supply at CATL, Beijing Weinan, and other customers. 3. **Product Parameters and Performance Advantages**: The product has special parameters, including ultra-high porosity (up to 85%, compared to 40-50% for traditional wet process separators), large pore size (up to 85-100 nm, compared to less than 60 nm for traditional wet process separators), and high compressibility (greater than 50%, compared to less than 10% for traditional wet process separators). It has passed certifications in sulfur, oxide, and polymer application directions and meets customer requirements. 4. **Market Situation**: The current monthly output is a few ten thousand square meters, mainly depending on downstream demand. The industry may see an outbreak in 2026-2027, with a small amount of products applied in office oil storage in the next year, and downstream demand may increase significantly in the second half of the next year. 5. **Economic Viability and Production Capacity**: The product has good economic viability, with the lowest customer price at 4.5 yuan per square meter, significantly higher than the value of traditional separators. The cost may be lower than traditional separators, with a monthly production capacity of 50 million square meters and a full production capacity of 40 million square meters. The equipment is 80% domestically produced and 20% imported, with low depreciation costs and no extraction process. The membrane forming process is derived from the reflective membrane product technology, using bidirectional stretching instead of extraction, resulting in lower costs and good short-term profitability. 6. **Commercial Cooperation**: The company has basically cooperated with mainstream enterprises. 7. **Future Cooperation Outlook**: The company may have deeper cooperation with some giants in the future, and specific details will be communicated later. 8. **Product Application Solutions**: The product can be applied in both solid-state and semi-solid state batteries. It has passed tests in various customer schemes, including sulfur, oxide, and polymer, and plays a different role than traditional separators, mainly acting as a supporting structure. 9. **Competition**: The company has competitors in dry double-drawing processes, but its product meets customer requirements in porosity, pore size, and rebound performance. Reflective membrane enterprises are unlikely to enter this field due to technical and economic challenges. 10. **Traditional Business**: The company's traditional businesses include reflective membranes, optical base films, and dry separators. Reflective membrane business is stable, with revenue of about 7.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year and an expected revenue of 9.6-10 billion yuan for the full year. The optical base film business is expected to incur a loss this year, but may reduce losses next year. The dry separator business is expected to reduce losses significantly next year. Other Important Information * The company's research and development team includes personnel from equipment and process, formula, and product promotion. * The company has a 50 million square meter production line, with an expansion period of 8-12 months. * The company plans to expand its production capacity based on industry demand and may become a key direction for capacity investment in the future.

Key Points Industry/Company Involved - **Company**: Jinbo Stock Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Solid-state battery technology, carbon materials, and thermal field solutions for photovoltaic and lithium battery industries. Core Views and Arguments - **Silicon Carbon Silicon-based Products**: - Company has accumulated experience in silicon oxide and silicon carbon through its participation in Jin Si Technology. - Currently, the company is focusing on the development of porous carbon and silicon alkane, with pilot production and capacity expansion underway. - The company has invested in 3600 tons of porous carbon capacity and has预留 3600 tons for future expansion. - [2] - **Silicon Oxide**: - The company is one of the largest suppliers of silicon oxide precursors to Bettery. - The company's silicon oxide products have advantages in cost and performance compared to competitors. - The company plans to double its silicon oxide capacity next year. - [3] - **Silicon Carbon**: - The company is focusing on the development of porous carbon for silicon carbon, with three major systems: petroleum coke-based, asphalt-based, and resin-based. - The company has advantages in porous carbon compared to other manufacturers. - The company plans to disclose detailed plans for capacity and customers at a later stage. - [4] - **Porous Carbon**: - The company plans to balance the development of porous carbon in petroleum coke, asphalt, and resin, with a focus on asphalt-based due to its performance and cost advantages. - The company plans to increase its porous carbon capacity to 7000-7200 tons. - [5][8] - **Carbon Ceramic Brake Discs**: - The company's carbon ceramic brake disc business has attracted interest from many car manufacturers, including BYD, Xiaomi, Xpeng, and GAC Aion. - The company is also exploring the European and American markets. - [9] - **Traditional Business**: - The company's traditional photovoltaic thermal field business will account for less than 1/3 of the group's business in the future. - The lithium battery thermal field business and carbon ceramic brake disc business are expected to account for more than 1/3. - [10] - **Research and Development**: - The company is continuously investing in research and development, including high thermal conductivity carbon, high electrical conductivity carbon, and other research. - [11] - **Silicon-based Anode and Porous Carbon in Solid-state Batteries**: - The company believes that silicon carbon anodes will experience explosive growth when the cost is reduced to a certain degree. - The company expects the application of silicon carbon anodes in solid-state batteries to be realized in the next 1-2 years. - [15] Other Important Content - The company is actively seeking partnerships with battery manufacturers for testing and verification of its products. - The company is planning to expand its market share in the European and American markets. - The company is continuously improving its products and technologies to maintain its competitive advantage in the market. - [6][7][12][16][17]

风起半导体设备，吹向何处 20241118 摘要 • 半导体设备板块近期显著上涨，主要源于整体市场上行趋势及国产化自主 可控的双重利好，2024 年行业销售额增长印证了周期复苏态势。 • 设计类公司涨幅不及设备类公司，主要因为地缘政治及产业政策导致市场 更关注国产化进程，半导体设备作为核心装备，国产化提升带来的成长性 更显著。 • 半导体行业不同环节受地缘政治、政策及经济周期等因素影响，例如 2022 年美国制裁导致短期回调，而 2023 年以来国产化预期高涨。 • 中国半导体产业发展主要逻辑为行业周期复苏和自主可控进程加速，两者 在不同时期交替或共同作用，影响各细分领域发展。 • 2024 年 9 月 24 日以来半导体板块强劲上涨，除原有周期复苏和国产化逻 辑外，美国大选等外部因素加剧了国产化影响力。 • 全球半导体行业受周期性因素和国产化进程双重影响，AI 等新兴需求推 动行业上行，而美国政策变化加速了国内国产化进程。 • 2023 年前三季度，全球半导体销售额同比环比增长，但国内指数未完全 反映复苏，AI 相关领域及半导体设备板块表现突出，后者主要受益于订 单转化和国产化进程。 Q&A 9 月 24 ...

风光板块更新：光伏下调出口退税率，海风项目密集启动 20241117 摘要 • 光伏出口退税率下调至 9%，短期内或影响企业报表，但中国光伏产业全 球竞争力强，头部企业受影响较小，市占率有望提升。 • 国内光伏组件报价有望维持在每瓦 0.68 元以上，对股价形成支撑；海外 市场需求疲软，但价格上涨可能引发补库周期，利好市场表现。 • 光伏产业链库存去化加速，电池片、硅片库存下降，预计未来一到两个月 降至合理水平，价格弹性较大，可能呈现自下而上的增长趋势。 • 光伏玻璃冷修加速，供给侧下降，支撑价格上涨；新技术升级，如隆基股 份 HPC2.0、金科突发 3.0，提升行业竞争力。 • 异质结组件盈利水平较好，是高效组件技术布局的重要方向；中电线启动 3GW 异质结组件招采计划，体现市场认可度。 • 海上风电项目进展迅速，多个项目明确开工时间，2025-2026 年建设节奏 加快，装机增速有望达到 50%。 • 福建等沿海省份加速推进海上风电建设，核准但未招标项目约 22GW，未 来几年将陆续建设，国内外市场增速均可观。 Q&A 光伏产业近期有哪些政策变化？这些政策对行业有何影响？ 11 月 15 日，财政部和税务 ...