交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 25 日 建议关注设备与制造业工业品出口链条，推荐中远海特、招商轮船、华 贸物流，建议关注东航物流、中国外运。 关注低空经济赛道趋势性投资机遇。建议关注中信海直。 关注邮轮及水上轮渡主题性投资机会。建议关注渤海轮渡、海峡股份。 航运方面，美国贸易代表办公室提出对中国建造船舶征费的提议，1-2 月干 散货船新船订单量降至近年低位；航空方面，韩国计划对中国团体游客实施 阶段性免签，国际航协预计中国将在 2030 年成世界最大航空客运市场；2 月份快递业务量完成 135.9 亿件，同比增长 58.8%。 核心观点： ①美国贸易代表办公室提出对中国建造船舶征费的提议，1- 2 月干散货 船新船订单量降至近年低位。对于希腊航运业而言，其船队和订单中的 中国造船舶占比不容忽视。在干散货船和杂货船领域（10000 载重吨及 以上）尤为明显，现有船队 43%的运力在中国造，而 168 艘在建船舶中 有 135 艘在中国船厂建造。油轮船队也有 26%的现有运力在中国建造， 而 288 艘在建油轮中有 216 艘在中国建造。集装箱船队现有运力 30%为 中国造，且 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 3 月 25 日 | 3 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 000680.SZ | 山推股份 | | 300073.SZ | 当升科技 | | 600600.SH | 青岛啤酒 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | 603986.SH | 兆易创新 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250325 ■重点关注 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)20328310 jun.wang_sh@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300511070001 【电力设备】氢能行业系列报告之四*武佳雄。节能降碳需求推动我国氢能 需求加速；欧盟 FEU、CBAM 逐步进入正式执行阶段，航运、化工领域已 经出现氢基燃料明确需求；随着电解槽制氢、终端用氢技术突破或补贴规模 扩大，我国氢能应用规模有望提升。 【非银金融】证券行业 2024 年年报前瞻*张天愉。21 家上市券商预披露 2024 年业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [16]. Core Viewpoints - The recent issuance of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" by the Central Committee and the State Council is expected to stimulate travel demand, benefiting the aviation transportation sector, particularly the demand for regional aviation focused on tourism resources [4][6]. - The current passenger throughput of regional airports in China is relatively low, with only 6.2% of total throughput, suggesting significant growth potential as GDP per capita increases [4][5]. - The regional aviation market is characterized by a steady passenger throughput of around 90 million over the past five years, with a projected increase in flight operations and passenger demand [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Regional airports account for over 70% of the total number of airports in China, but only 6% of passenger throughput, indicating room for growth [4]. - The number of regional airports is distributed across 28 provinces, covering over 170 cities, with a concentration in areas with unique tourism resources [6]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, Huaxia Airlines holds the largest market share in the regional aviation sector at 13.4%, with the top ten airlines accounting for 69.3% of the market [7]. - The regional aviation market is expected to benefit from the government's focus on expanding tourism consumption, leading to a diversified and increased demand for regional air travel [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market has seen significant increases in transaction volumes due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, with both new and second-hand housing transactions turning positive on a year-on-year basis [1][6] - The central bank is focused on ensuring the effectiveness of previously introduced financial policies to support the real estate market [1][6] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of February 8 to February 14, 2025, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities reached 16,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 156.5% and a year-on-year increase of 4578.0% [16] - New housing transaction area was 1.742 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 162.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3621.7% [21] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 5.966 million square meters, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.5% [34] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total planned land area sold in 100 cities was 9.694 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 456.4% and a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [12] - The total land transaction price was 13.27 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 18.2% and a year-on-year increase of 53.8% [12] - The average floor price of land was 1368.4 yuan per square meter, showing a week-on-week decrease of 78.7% but a year-on-year increase of 31.8% [12] 3. Policy Overview - Recent policies include adjustments to housing provident fund loan expiration dates and the removal of housing sales restrictions in Chongqing, aimed at improving housing security for migrant populations [6] - The central bank's monetary policy report indicates a commitment to supporting the real estate market through various financial measures, including a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing [6] 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was 2.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week, while the relative return compared to the CSI 300 was 0.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the real estate sector was 20.78X, an increase of 0.22X from the previous week [13] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, as well as smaller firms that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 5.71 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 599.9 billion for 2024, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 9.5 billion, down 48.2% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 1.04 per 10 shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 30% [4][8]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company has a robust backlog of resources to be settled, ensuring a high degree of future earnings security. The pre-sold funds amounted to RMB 874 billion, with a pre-sold funds to revenue ratio of 1.46X, indicating a solid performance in future revenue generation [4][10][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 was RMB 599.9 billion, down 16.8% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 9.5 billion, reflecting a 48.2% decline [4][14]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 14.3%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin and net profit attributable to shareholders' margin were 2.3% and 1.6%, respectively, both down from the previous year [12][14]. Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a sales amount of RMB 1,054 billion in 2024, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, and entered the top 10 in industry sales rankings for the first time [7][32]. - The average selling price was RMB 28,500 per square meter, down 9.7% year-on-year, with a total sales area of 3.7 million square meters, a decline of 7.4% [32][34]. Investment and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on key cities for land acquisition, with a total land reserve of 3.77 million square meters, down 13.2% year-on-year. The land acquisition amount for 2024 was RMB 9.5 billion, a significant decrease of 76.8% [7][34]. - The company expects revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 559 billion, RMB 544 billion, and RMB 519 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 7.7 billion, RMB 6.9 billion, and RMB 6.4 billion [5][6]. Debt and Financing - As of the end of 2024, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of RMB 1,254 billion, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, with a net debt ratio of 73.8%, up 11.2 percentage points [7][23]. - The average financing cost was 5.22%, down 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial health [7][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a significant improvement in profitability in 2024, with total revenue reaching USD 10.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, driven by strong global parcel volume growth [8] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to USD 778 million, reflecting a substantial increase of 430.5%, indicating enhanced profitability [8] - The company turned a profit with a net income of USD 114 million in 2024, compared to a loss of USD 1.156 billion in 2023 [8] - The report highlights the continued improvement in domestic business profitability and the ongoing increase in overseas market share [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 was USD 10.259 billion, with a growth rate of 15.9% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was USD 778 million, showing a significant increase of 430.5% [8] - The net profit for 2024 was USD 114 million, a turnaround from a loss of USD 1.156 billion in 2023 [8] - The operating cash flow for 2024 reached USD 807 million, a year-on-year increase of 136.1% [8] Parcel Volume and Cost Control - The global parcel volume reached 24.65 billion pieces in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% [8] - The cost per parcel in Southeast Asia decreased from USD 0.67 to USD 0.57, and in China from USD 0.34 to USD 0.30, demonstrating effective cost control [8] - Despite a slight decline in revenue per parcel due to competitive pricing adjustments, overall profitability improved due to cost reductions [8] Regional Performance - Southeast Asia remains the core market with a parcel volume of 4.56 billion pieces and a market share of 28.6% [8] - In China, the parcel volume reached 19.8 billion pieces, with a market share of 11.3%, ranking sixth in the industry [8] - New markets, including the Middle East and South America, saw revenue growth of 76.1% to USD 576 million, indicating successful market expansion efforts [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [19] Core Views - In February 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month. The number of cities with declining prices has increased [3][10] - The report indicates that the core theme of the real estate market remains "stabilizing after a decline," with the primary task being to stimulate demand. The effectiveness of policies to boost demand is diminishing, and the market's recovery will depend on further easing measures and the progress of monetized old renovations and land reserves [3][10] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In February 2025, 45 out of 70 cities saw new home prices decline, an increase of 3 cities from January. The average decline in new home prices was 0.31%, while 65 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, with an average decline of 0.38% [3][10] - First-tier cities showed a month-on-month increase in new home prices of 0.1%, maintaining positive growth for three consecutive months. However, second-hand home prices in these cities turned negative, with an average decline of 0.1% [3][10] - Second-tier cities saw new home prices stabilize, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%, widening the decline compared to January [3][10] - Third-tier cities experienced a 0.3% decline in new home prices, with second-hand home prices also decreasing by 0.4% [3][10] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [3] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate [3] 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes benefiting from local government debt relief, such as Gemdale Corporation [3] 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, including Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is set to "stronger than the market" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [54]. Core Insights - The economic data for January-February 2025 shows an overall improvement compared to 2024, with industrial added value growing by 5.9%, fixed asset investment increasing by 4.1%, and retail sales growing by 4.0%, although the latter was below expectations [45][46]. - The macroeconomic policies are expected to have a significant impact on stabilizing growth, with a focus on infrastructure investment, manufacturing fixed asset investment, and consumer spending [46]. - The report highlights the resilience of high-tech industries and the positive impact of cultural products on service consumption, indicating a structural shift in the economy [45][46]. Summary by Sections Industrial Added Value - In January-February 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, supported by manufacturing and high-tech industries [7][11]. - The mining industry saw a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, while manufacturing grew by 6.9% and high-tech industries by 9.1% [5][11]. Retail Sales - Retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year, with non-automotive consumer goods retail sales increasing by 4.8% [5][18]. - Service consumption showed strong performance, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [5][22]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 9.0% and infrastructure investment by 5.6% [30][34]. - Real estate investment saw a decline of 9.8%, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to 2024 [38][41]. Economic Outlook - The economic growth target for 2025 remains at 5%, with a need for multi-faceted efforts to stabilize growth [46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies in supporting growth, particularly in infrastructure and consumer spending [46].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - In February, China regained the top position in global new ship orders, with a market share of 93.7% [1][13] - Air China launched a direct flight from Beijing to Washington, with over 1 million inbound and outbound passengers at Beijing Daxing International Airport, marking a 36.1% year-on-year increase [1][15][16] - J&T Express integrated the DeepSeek AI model, with the Chinese express delivery index reaching 368.6 in January and February, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [1][21][23] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - In February, China secured 52 new ship orders totaling 621,000 deadweight tons, leading the global market [1][13] - China Ocean Shipping Company successfully completed a 3.5 billion yuan A-share refinancing project, enhancing its fleet capacity and financial efficiency [1][14] - Air China's direct flight to Washington enhances international travel efficiency and reflects market demand responsiveness [1][15][16] - J&T Express's integration of DeepSeek aims to improve operational efficiency and reduce training costs [1][21][22] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The air cargo capacity on routes from China to the Asia-Pacific remained stable in mid-March [2][24] - The shipping price index decreased while dry bulk freight rates increased [2][32] - In February, express delivery volume increased by 58.75% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 16.26% [2][40] - The average daily international flights in the second week of March increased by 20.27% year-on-year [2][67] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [3] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [3] - Consider investment opportunities in cruise and ferry services, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [3] - Explore e-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, J&T Express, and Yunda [3] - Look into aviation industry investment opportunities, recommending Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Focus on Key Attention" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, specifically for Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [4]. Core Viewpoints - Kunming Pharmaceutical Group is expected to achieve stable profit growth in 2024, with a strong performance in the fourth quarter. The company's channel integration is gradually completed, and quality improvement and efficiency enhancement are anticipated [4][5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 8.401 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.34% (adjusted retrospectively, a growth of 9.07% before adjustment). The net profit attributable to shareholders was 648 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.86% (adjusted retrospectively, a growth of 45.74% before adjustment) [4]. - The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of 2.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.42%, and a net profit of 261 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.51% [4]. - The company’s sales expense ratio for 2024 was 26.50%, a decrease of 4.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio was 4.42%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Kunming Pharmaceutical Group achieved a total revenue of 8.401 billion yuan, with a net profit of 648 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.86% [4]. - The fourth quarter performance was particularly strong, with a revenue of 2.944 billion yuan and a net profit of 261 million yuan, marking significant growth compared to the previous year [4]. Strategic Developments - The company completed a cash acquisition of 51% of Kunming Huaren Shenghuo Pharmaceutical, which is a key move to address competition issues with Huaren Sanjiu and further integrate resources in the health sector [5]. - The ongoing strategy of "big single product + all-channel + branding" is being implemented, with significant progress in channel integration across retail and medical systems [5]. Research and Development - In 2024, the company invested 143 million yuan in R&D, employing a model of "independent research + investment mergers + cooperative research + introduction of agency" to establish an innovative R&D pipeline covering key health and chronic disease areas [5].