房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 房地产行业第 3 周周报（2026 年 1 月 10 日-2026 年 1 月 16 日） 新房、二手房成交同比降幅均收窄；央行下调商业用房购房贷款 首付比例 新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；二手房成交面积环比增幅收窄，同比降 幅收窄；新房库存面积同环比均下降；去化周期同环比均上升。 核心观点 政策 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手房价 跌幅大于二、三线城市》（2025/07/17） 《2025 年将成为房地产行业"由量转质，优化结构" 的关键年》（2025/05/12） 《"城市更新"成为楼市重要的增量筹码，维稳房 地产市场是当前扩内需的重要一环（25 年 4 月政治 局会议解读）》（2025/04/27） 《房地产"止跌回稳"主基调不变，释放需求和化 解风险并行，传递积极信号（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [1][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a harvest period in its semiconductor business in 2026, driven by high-end products and new offerings. The WLP series has seen order amounts exceed 100 million RMB, indicating strong market recognition of the company's direct-write lithography technology [3][8]. - The growth of the PCB business is anticipated to be driven by high-end product development and new product launches, with the company positioned as a leader in direct-write lithography equipment [8]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 829 million RMB in 2023 to 2,529 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% from 2023 to 2025 and 22.7% from 2025 to 2027 [7]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is between 275 million RMB and 295 million RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 71% to 84% [8]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.21 RMB, 3.25 RMB, and 4.17 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 80.9, 47.3, and 28.2 [5][7].

商贸零售 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2026 年 1 月 21 日 601888.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 96.09 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 6.4 16.0 36.6 55.3 相对上证综指 4.2 10.3 30.2 28.5 发行股数 (百万) 2,068.86 (9%) 5% 18% 32% 45% 59% Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 中国中免 上证综指 | 流通股 (百万) | 2,068.86 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 198,796.67 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 4,528.30 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 中国旅游集团有限公司 | 50.3 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2026 年 1 月 20 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《中国中免》20250901 《中 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, highlighting its leadership in photovoltaic encapsulation technology and its exploration of new solutions for space photovoltaic applications, with a recommendation to "maintain buy" rating [2][4][6]. Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the photovoltaic encapsulation materials sector, holding a market share of approximately 50% in the photovoltaic film auxiliary materials field [4]. - It offers a diverse range of products including UVB films, light conversion films, high-reflective black films, ultra-high reflective white films, high barrier edge sealing adhesives, PIB films, and high-reflective back sheets, aimed at providing cost-effective encapsulation solutions for emerging technologies like TOPCon, HJT, thin-film batteries, and perovskite cells [4]. Technological Advancements - The company possesses advanced encapsulation technology that meets the requirements for space photovoltaic applications, particularly in terms of radiation resistance [5]. - It is actively developing new materials that combine various properties to meet the unique demands of space environments, leveraging its existing expertise in PI materials and PET materials [5]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share of 0.39, 0.74, and 0.99 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 38.8, 20.7, and 15.4 times [6].

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,564, down 1.0% for the day and up 3.6% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The HSCEI closed at 9,134, down 0.9% for the day and up 2.5% YTD [2] - The MSCI China index closed at 86, down 1.0% for the day and up 3.6% YTD [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude remained stable at US$64 per barrel, with a YTD increase of 5.4% [3] - Gold prices rose to US$4,671 per ounce, reflecting an 8.1% increase YTD [3] - Copper prices fell to US$12,803 per ton, down 2.3% for the day but up 3.1% YTD [3] Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth moderated to 4.5% YoY in Q4 2025, slightly above expectations, with a full-year growth of 5% for 2025 [6] - Industrial profits in China decreased by 13.1% YoY as of January 27, 2026 [4] - The 1-Year Loan Prime Rate in China remained stable at 3.0% as of January 20, 2026 [4] Sector Insights - The OTA sector is under pressure due to an antitrust probe involving Trip.com, which saw a stock price drop of over 20% [10] - Despite the probe, long-term earnings impact on Trip.com is expected to be limited, with investor confidence potentially returning by August 2026 [10] - The property market in China is showing marginal improvement, but underlying pressures persist, with expectations for stabilization by late 2026 or early 2027 [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][5] Core Views - The company is a leader in photovoltaic encapsulation materials, maintaining a market share of approximately 50% in the photovoltaic film auxiliary materials sector. It offers a range of products including UVB films, light conversion films, and high-reflective back sheets, aimed at providing cost-effective encapsulation solutions for new technologies such as TOPCon and HJT [8] - The company is actively exploring new solutions for space photovoltaic applications, leveraging its existing technology in UV cutoff and conversion, as well as its proprietary PI material technology, which has already been commercialized in electronic materials [8] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 18,622 million, with a growth rate of -2.7%. By 2026, revenue is expected to increase to RMB 23,536 million, reflecting a growth rate of 26.4% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is RMB 1,029 million, with a significant rebound expected in 2026 to RMB 1,930 million, representing a growth rate of 87.6% [7] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 0.39, with an increase to RMB 0.74 in 2026 and RMB 0.99 in 2027 [5][7] - The company maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 38.8 for 2025, which is expected to decrease to 20.7 in 2026 and further to 15.4 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [5][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown an absolute return of 9.7% year-to-date, with a relative performance of 7.4% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][5] Core Views - The company is a leader in photovoltaic encapsulation materials, maintaining a market share of approximately 50% in the photovoltaic film auxiliary materials sector. It offers a range of products including UVB films, light conversion films, and high-reflective back sheets, aimed at providing cost-effective encapsulation solutions for new technologies such as TOPCon and HJT [8] - The company is actively exploring new solutions for space photovoltaic applications, leveraging its existing technology in UV cutoff and conversion, as well as its proprietary PI material technology, which may play a significant role in future space photovoltaic projects [8] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from RMB 22,589 million in 2023 to RMB 27,672 million in 2027, with a notable increase of 26.4% in 2026 [7] - The projected net profit is expected to rise from RMB 1,850 million in 2023 to RMB 2,592 million in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 87.6% in 2026 [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 0.71 in 2023 to RMB 0.99 in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 34.3% in 2026 [7] - The company maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 38.8 for 2025, decreasing to 15.4 by 2027, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [5][10] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown an absolute return of 9.7% year-to-date and a relative return of 7.4% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - The average trading volume over the past three months is RMB 370.03 million, with a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 39,965.88 million [2]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The economic development in 2025 is expected to achieve the target of 5% GDP growth, with a 4.5% year-on-year growth in Q4 and a nominal GDP growth of 3.8% [5][7] - Industrial added value in December increased by 5.2% year-on-year, while the cumulative growth for the entire year was 5.9% [5][6] - Retail sales in December showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with a 1.7% increase in retail sales excluding automobiles [5][6] Group 2: Social Services Sector - Outsourcing and flexible employment are key growth drivers for the human resources service industry, with the company benefiting from a comprehensive business layout and digital empowerment [9][10] - The human resources service market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13.89% from 2024 to 2028, supported by government policies focusing on employment stability [10][11] - The company has a robust business structure with high-margin services in personnel management and compensation, ensuring profit resilience [11][12] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry is advised to focus on undervalued leading companies and the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries [3][29] - In January, 49% of tracked chemical products saw price increases, indicating strong demand in the downstream market [24][29] - The average price of butadiene increased by 4.04% week-on-week, while epoxy propane prices rose by 8.84% [26][27] Group 4: Transportation Sector Developments - Strategic partnerships in logistics, such as the mutual shareholding between SF Express and Jitu Express, are aimed at enhancing cross-border e-commerce logistics capabilities [32][33] - The aviation sector is set to expand with new domestic and international routes being launched for the Spring Festival in 2026 [32] - The geopolitical situation in Iran has led to increased risk premiums in shipping, affecting oil transport dynamics [32][33] Group 5: Computer Industry Trends - The commercialization of AI is accelerating, with significant partnerships like that between Ant Group and Google to enhance transaction infrastructure [36][37] - Kuaishou's AI revenue reached approximately 200 million USD in December 2025, indicating rapid growth in the video generation sector [38] - Alibaba's Qianwen App has integrated deeply with its ecosystem, enhancing its capabilities to perform real-world tasks, marking a shift in AI applications [39][40]

Group 1 - The report highlights that after approximately 12 years of restructuring local government responsibilities, the most challenging phase has been overcome, providing a foundation for proactive fiscal, industrial, monetary, and credit policies, which are expected to exceed current market expectations by mid-2026 [4][10][14] - The core of economic activation lies in guiding high-net-worth funds into investment and consumption through moderate inflation and an active capital market, focusing on high-valuation industries such as technology manufacturing, biomedicine, and cultural entertainment [5][22] - The report emphasizes the significant growth potential in China's semiconductor and biomedicine sectors, which currently have market values of less than 1/10 and 1/40 of their U.S. counterparts, respectively [6][31] Group 2 - The report indicates that the strategic easing of U.S.-China relations is fostering internal momentum, while the global potential growth rate remains low, indicating significant room for expansion [7][8] - It notes that China contributes approximately 30% to global growth, yet its weight in the MSCI All Country World Index is less than 3%, suggesting a clear logic for asset allocation and revaluation of Chinese assets [8][9] - The forecast for China's core broad-based stock index is an expected increase of over 40% in 2026, driven by nearly 20% profit growth and a 20% valuation increase, with sectors like technology manufacturing and biomedicine expected to lead the rally [9][10] Group 3 - The report outlines that the government support has played a crucial role in the technological rise of countries like the U.S. and Japan, and that China's technology sector still shows significant gaps in revenue and profitability compared to the U.S. [6][31] - It discusses the importance of strategic industries as core pillars for capital and innovation, highlighting their high growth potential and low competition, which can attract substantial social capital [24][26] - The report identifies four key directions for strategic industries: technology manufacturing, biomedicine, medical insurance, and cultural entertainment, emphasizing the need for a collaborative approach between commercial insurance and industrial investment [26][30]

Economic Growth - In 2025, the actual GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the annual growth target[3] - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was 4.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from Q3 2025[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was 3.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from Q3 2025[4] Industrial Performance - In December 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations[13] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial added value for 2025 was 5.9%[3] - The manufacturing sector showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6.4% in 2025, while the mining sector grew by 5.6%[19] Consumer Spending - In December 2025, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline[28] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of retail sales for 2025 was 3.7%, with service consumption growing by 5.5%[28] - The average disposable income per capita in 2025 was 43,377 yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%[52] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year in 2025, with private investment down by 6.4%[39] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 17.2% in 2025, with residential investment down by 16.3%[48] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector was 0.6%[43]