本报告要点 ◼ 2024 年金山办公业绩稳步增长，WPS 365 收入大幅增加，AI 技术将持续赋能，推动 公司产品升级。 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 17.5 (14.5) 8.7 (1.7) 相对上证综指 14.2 (15.2) 9.4 (13.1) (45%) (30%) (15%) 0% 15% 30% Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 金山办公 上证综指 计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 3 月 26 日 688111.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 313.42 板块评级:强于大市 | 发行股数 (百万) | | | 462.67 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | | | 462.67 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 145,011.29 | | | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | | 2,013.58 | | | 主要股东 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][6] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 50.745 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.01%, which aligns with expectations [4][9] - The company holds a strong market position, being the global leader in power battery usage for eight consecutive years, with a market share of 37.9% in 2024 [9] - The company has a comprehensive product matrix and is leading in solid-state battery technology [9] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 362.013 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.7% compared to 2023 [8][10] - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 70.219 billion RMB, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the following years [8][10] - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 15.02 RMB, reflecting a growth of 5.1% from previous estimates [6][10] Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 259.48 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,142.593 billion RMB [1][2] - The stock has shown a 40.4% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index by 27.4% [2] Shareholder Information - Major shareholders include Xiamen Ruiting Investment Co., Ltd., holding 23.27% of the shares [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a potential for recovery and stabilization in the market [3][8]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of gradual recovery, with new home transaction volumes increasing on a month-over-month basis, although year-over-year growth is slowing [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of demand-side policies to stimulate market activity, alongside the ongoing progress in urban renewal and land acquisition as key themes for 2025 [8]. - The report identifies specific companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics, including those with strong liquidity, significant market share in key cities, and robust product offerings [8]. Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of March 15-21, 2025, new home transaction volumes in 40 cities reached 27,000 units, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 25.6% and a year-over-year increase of 2.5% [16]. - The new home transaction area was 2.947 million square meters, with a month-over-month increase of 23.7% and a year-over-year increase of 5.3% [27]. - Inventory levels for new homes are decreasing, with a total of 1.436 million units across 12 cities, showing a month-over-month decline of 0.2% and a year-over-year decline of 15.5% [29]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The land market is experiencing a rise in transaction volume but a decline in prices, with total land transaction area reaching 8.014 million square meters, a month-over-month increase of 83.0% but a year-over-year decrease of 44.4% [25]. - The total land transaction value was 12.55 billion yuan, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 56.5% and a year-over-year decrease of 58.8% [25]. 3. Policy Overview - Recent policy changes include increased loan limits for housing provident funds in Shenzhen and the launch of affordable housing projects in Guangzhou, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4]. 4. Company Performance - The report highlights companies such as Greentown China, China Resources Land, and China Merchants Shekou as key players with strong fundamentals and market presence [8].

Core Insights - The report highlights a slight decline in public fiscal revenue for January-February, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, indicating a broader economic trend [6][8] - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards "people's livelihood" areas, with a notable year-on-year growth of 3.4% in public budget expenditure [7][8] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy, with a planned deficit rate of around 4% for the year, suggesting an increase in fiscal spending [8] Macroeconomic Overview - In January-February, national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year, with central government revenue decreasing by 5.8% [6][7] - Local government revenue showed a slight increase of 2.0% year-on-year, indicating a mixed fiscal performance across different levels of government [6] - The contribution of personal income tax to revenue growth was significant, with a positive contribution of 2.3 percentage points [7] Fiscal Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096 billion in January-February, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7][8] - Central government expenditure grew by 8.6%, while local government expenditure increased by 2.7%, indicating a stronger focus on central initiatives [7] - The report notes a shift in expenditure structure, with a decline in spending on infrastructure and an increase in social security and employment support, contributing 1.2 percentage points to expenditure growth [8] Industry Performance - The report provides an overview of industry performance, with coal and basic chemicals showing positive growth, while sectors like telecommunications and computers experienced declines [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,369.98, reflecting a stable market environment despite minor fluctuations in other indices [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is entering a performance verification period, with mixed feedback from the recent Spring Sugar and Wine Fair, highlighting increasing brand differentiation [3][4] - The beverage leaders have shown strong performance, while the snack food sector presents investment opportunities amid industry transformations [7] Market Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 4.0% last week, ranking 27th among the Shenwan first-level industries. Sub-sectors such as soft drinks and beer performed relatively better, with declines of -0.3% and -1.1% respectively, while other alcoholic beverages and dairy products saw larger declines of -5.2% and -6.4% [4][10] - As of March 21, the valuation (PE-TTM) for the liquor sector was 20.3X, while the overall food and beverage sector stood at 21.2X [4][17] Industry Data - In January-February, the production of liquor (65 degrees, commodity volume) totaled 663,000 kiloliters, down 11.2% year-on-year; beer production was 5.261 million kiloliters, down 4.9%; and wine production was 15,000 kiloliters, down 25.0% [7][25] - The retail sales of consumer goods totaled 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. Notably, the catering revenue grew by 4.3%, and the sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 5.5% [7] - The Spring Sugar and Wine Fair saw a subdued atmosphere, with over 6,600 exhibitors and an exhibition area of 325,000 square meters, indicating a shift in focus towards inventory management and cash flow recovery among liquor businesses [7][25] Company Performance - The leading soft drink company, Dongpeng Beverage, is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 40.6% and a net profit growth of 63.1% in 2024, benefiting from cost advantages and market share gains in the energy drink segment [7] - The snack food sector is witnessing transformations, with major players adapting to changing consumer demands and enhancing their channel strategies [7] - The beer sector is recommended for investment, particularly focusing on Qingdao Beer, which is expected to benefit from a low base effect [7]

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 3 月 25 日 600428.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 7.11 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 2.7 12.7 0.7 25.2 相对上证综指 (0.5) 12.8 1.4 14.6 发行股数 (百万) 2,743.92 流通股 (百万) 2,146.65 总市值 (人民币 百万) 19,509.27 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 241.47 (11%) 1% 12% 24% 35% 47% Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 中远海特 上证综指 主要股东 中国远洋运输有限公司（%） 40.99 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 3 月 24 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《中远海特》20241107 《中远海特》20240905 《中远海特》20240509 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业 ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 25 日 强于大市 社会服务行业双周报 全年扩消费政策预期足，有望修复消费信心 前两交易周（2025.3.10-2025.3.21）社会服务板块上涨 2.49%，在申万一级 31 个行业排名中位列第 9。社会服务板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.23pct。近日《提 振消费专项行动方案》颁布，多措并举下期待消费信心得以恢复。我们维持 行业 强于大市 评级。 市场回顾&行业动态数据 双周要闻 投资建议 《提振消费专项行动方案》出台，有望针对性的解决制约消费的突出矛 盾问题，带来较好的扩消费政策预期。我们建议关注后续业绩增长确定 性强的出行链及产业相关公司：黄山旅游、丽江股份、宋城演艺、岭南 控股、众信旅游、中青旅、海昌海洋公园、天目湖、长白山等；受益于 商旅客流复苏以及疫后市占率提高的连锁酒店品牌君亭酒店、锦江酒 店、首旅酒店等；受益于促就业政策推动的科锐国际；跨境游市场恢复 有望推动机场免税的恢复和市内免税新政加速推出，建议关注中国中 免、王府井；承接餐饮、宴会需求复苏的同庆楼；本地生活消费老字号 品牌豫园股份；受益于商务复苏的会展品牌米奥会展、兰 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 -- 总量点评 2025年3月25日 1-2 月财政数据点评 广义财政支出靠前发力 1-2 月公共财政收入同比小幅下滑;财政支出向"惠民生"领域加速倾斜; 广义财政支出靠前发力 ■ 3月24日,财政部发布数据,1-2月,全国一般公共预算收入 43856.0 亿 元,同比下降 1.6%,降幅(较 2024年 1-12月,下同)走扩 2.9 个百分 点。其中,中央一般公共预算收入 19499.0 亿元,同比下降 5.8%,降幅 走扩 6.7个百分点;地方一般公共预算本级收入 24357.0 亿元,同比增长 2.0%,增幅继续走扩 0.3个百分点。 着眼税收收入结构,1-2 月权重税种中,个人所得税对当期税收收入同 比增速的正贡献较为明显,当期实现 2.3个百分点,环比(2024年 1-12 月,下同)改善 2.4个百分点,是当期同比增速最大的正贡献项目。 1-2 月. 国内增值税对税收收入同比增速的贡献由负转正,当期实现 0.4 个百分点,环比改善 1.9个百分点;春节期间,"消费品以旧换新"等 重要政策积极推进,1-2月社会消费品零售总额同比增速实现 4.0%,环 比改善 0.3个百 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 3 月 25 日 1-2 月财政数据点评 广义财政支出靠前发力 1-2 月公共财政收入同比小幅下滑；财政支出向"惠民生"领域加速倾斜； 广义财政支出靠前发力 3 月 24 日，财政部发布数据，1-2 月，全国一般公共预算收入 43856.0 亿 元，同比下降 1.6%，降幅（较 2024 年 1-12 月，下同）走扩 2.9 个百分 点。其中，中央一般公共预算收入 19499.0 亿元，同比下降 5.8%，降幅 走扩 6.7 个百分点；地方一般公共预算本级收入 24357.0 亿元，同比增长 2.0%，增幅继续走扩 0.3 个百分点。 着眼税收收入结构，1-2 月权重税种中，个人所得税对当期税收收入同 比增速的正贡献较为明显，当期实现 2.3 个百分点，环比（2024 年 1-12 月，下同）改善 2.4 个百分点，是当期同比增速最大的正贡献项目。 1-2 月，国内增值税对税收收入同比增速的贡献由负转正，当期实现 0.4 个百分点，环比改善 1.9 个百分点；春节期间，"消费品以旧换新"等 重要政策积极推进，1-2 月社会消费品零售总额同比增速实现 4. ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 25 日 建议关注设备与制造业工业品出口链条，推荐中远海特、招商轮船、华 贸物流，建议关注东航物流、中国外运。 关注低空经济赛道趋势性投资机遇。建议关注中信海直。 关注邮轮及水上轮渡主题性投资机会。建议关注渤海轮渡、海峡股份。 航运方面，美国贸易代表办公室提出对中国建造船舶征费的提议，1-2 月干 散货船新船订单量降至近年低位；航空方面，韩国计划对中国团体游客实施 阶段性免签，国际航协预计中国将在 2030 年成世界最大航空客运市场；2 月份快递业务量完成 135.9 亿件，同比增长 58.8%。 核心观点： ①美国贸易代表办公室提出对中国建造船舶征费的提议，1- 2 月干散货 船新船订单量降至近年低位。对于希腊航运业而言，其船队和订单中的 中国造船舶占比不容忽视。在干散货船和杂货船领域（10000 载重吨及 以上）尤为明显，现有船队 43%的运力在中国造，而 168 艘在建船舶中 有 135 艘在中国船厂建造。油轮船队也有 26%的现有运力在中国建造， 而 288 艘在建油轮中有 216 艘在中国建造。集装箱船队现有运力 30%为 中国造，且 ...