宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 12 月 12 日 GDP 的顶梁柱 房地产之后下一个是什么？ 以"经济增长保持在合理区间"为目标，汇总"十五五"规划建议的重 点，我们概括理解未来五年支撑经济增长的四个重要方面：1.深化新技术 对现有经济基础的改造；2.自上而下建立源源不断产生新技术的体系；3. 从人的需求出发，化解生产力变化对生产关系产生的影响；4.政府主导的 公共产品供给保障、收入再分配调节和经济稳定增长秩序维护。我们认为 从科技成熟度和产业化周期规律看，未来一段时间内，需要重点关注"现 代化产业体系建设"。 相关研究报告 《需求端或决定通胀延续性》20251211 《白银新高点评》20251211 《11 月通胀点评》20251210 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The current real estate market remains sluggish, with ongoing declines in housing prices and increasing market concerns. However, there is optimism for policy optimization in the future, potentially marking the beginning of a new real estate cycle in 2026 [8] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou [8] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [8] 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios and operational models, such as China Resources and Swire Properties [8] Summary by Sections 1. New and Second-hand Housing Market Tracking - New housing transaction area decreased by 11.4% month-on-month and 45.7% year-on-year, with a total of 208.9 million square meters sold in 40 cities [7][19] - Second-hand housing transaction area also saw a decline of 5.1% month-on-month and 45.9% year-on-year, totaling 157.5 million square meters in 18 cities [7][50] - New housing inventory area decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 10.3% year-on-year, with a total inventory of 11,369 million square meters [7][43] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 2,377.1 million square meters, up 14.8% month-on-month but down 26.7% year-on-year, with a total transaction value of 865.7 billion yuan [7][64] - The average land price was 3,641.9 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 58.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [7][64] - The land premium rate was 3.8%, up 2.5 percentage points month-on-month but down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [7][64] 3. Policy Overview - Recent government policies emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, with various local governments introducing housing purchase subsidy policies to support homebuyers [3] - Notable policies include subsidies for newlywed families and families with multiple children in cities like Nanning and Changzhou [3] 4. Company Performance and Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 142.4 billion yuan, down 26.9% month-on-month and 31.0% year-on-year [7][54] - The total repayment amount was 105.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 55.7% month-on-month and 77.5% year-on-year [7][54]

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 社服视角学习中央经济工 作会议精神的体会 内需主导提振消费，民生为大谋办实事 中央经济工作会议（以下简称会议）于 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举 行，中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要 讲话。习总书记重要讲话主要总结了 2025 年我国经济工作，分析了当前经济 形势，部署了 2026 年经济工作。会议提出的五个"必须"是做好新形势下经 济工作新的认识和体会。结合会议确定的 2026 年"八大"经济工作重点任务， 从社会服务行业的视角，我们预计内需主导是提振消费的重要支撑动力，我 们维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 在学习习总书记重要讲话和会议精神后，我们对 2026 年及"十五五"期 间以社会服务为主的消费恢复及发展方向更为明确，对行业及企业的进 一步深耕与供给创新更有信心。我们建议关注三条主线：一是会议明确 的稳岗就业标的科锐国际、北京人力、上海外服；二是跨境消费需求提 振后有望进一步释放业绩增量的同程旅行、岭南控股、众信旅游、长白 山、黄山旅游；三是新消费场景与 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 2025 年中央经济工作会议 学习体会 "扩内需"的战略地位进一步提升 "扩内需"的战略地位进一步提升。 "惠民生"和"稳投资"有望共同发力。 财政、货币增量政策仍然值得期待。 着眼明年的发展任务，会议将"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"放在了 会议公报相对靠前的位置，强调"增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"，明 年宏观政策有望更加靠前发力。 会议增加了"扩大内需、优化供给"、"做优增量、盘活存量"等重要表 述，并在明年经济工作的重点任务中，将"坚持内需主导"放在了各项 发展任务之前，明年"扩内需"的战略地位进一步提升。"扩内需"是 应对当前"老问题、新挑战"的重要抓手，其能够有效对冲外部需求的 不确定性，加速消化国内"强"供给，带动企业盈利与居民收入修复， 进而进一步推动反哺有效需求。为更好的实现这一良性循环，2026 年宏 观政策有望"更加积极有为"的发力"扩内需"。 其一，为实现"十五五"良好开局，增量政策仍然值得期待。其二，盘 活"存量"资源，"因地制宜"的做好经济工作。以发展新质生产力为 例，2024 年中央经济工作会议强调要以科技创 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | 12 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 0119.HK | 保利置业集团 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 601872.SH | 招商轮船 | | 600309.SH | 万华化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 603799.SH | 华友钴业 | | 603345.SH | 安井食品 | | 603099.SH | 长白山 | | 300395.SZ | 菲利华 | | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3873.32 | (0.70) | | 深证成指 | 13147.39 | (1.27) | | 沪深 300 | 4552.18 | (0.86) | | 中小 100 | 7947.12 | (1.04) | | 创业板指 | 3163.67 | (1.41) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- ...

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 除了美国就业市场降温外，发达经济体的财政扩张倾向，可能倒逼美联储推 进降息，事实上形成一种另类的"结构性双松"。 美联储 12 月议息会议中表现出来的分歧比预期中小。从议息决议来看， 只有施密德和古尔斯比两位票委反对降息；从利率预测点阵图看，认同 本次降息或者更多降息的 FOMC 官员达到 13 位，而 9 月会议时支持今年 降息到这一水平的只有 10 位。此外，美联储还宣布了对中短期美国国债 （剩余期限不超过 3 年）的购债计划。当然，这种表面分歧的弥合可能 是妥协的结果，而促成这种妥协的压力可能来自两方面：美国就业市场 降温和发达经济体整体的财政扩张倾向。 美国就业市场降温的迹象。如此前报告提到，美国 11 月 ADP 就业数据 印证美国就业市场降温，可以推测官方的私营非农就业数据增长也应在 放缓中，10 月或 11 月不排除有减少情况（《债市测试"平衡边界"》 20251207）。 发达经济体整体的财政扩张倾向。近期美债收益率面临的上行压力主要 来自日债和欧债。日本内阁近期批准 21.3 万亿日元补充预算，占 GDP 的 比重接 ...

利率、汇率、信用 中国固定收益研究 Rates, Currencies & Credits China Fixed Income Research 不那么鹰派的降息，扩表重启初始规模超预期 中银国际固定收益研究 Fixed Income Research 中银国际固定收益研究 BOCI Fixed Income Research 2025. 12. 11 Wiley Huang (黄为一)，CFA (852) 3988 6324 wileywy.huang@bocigroup.com Wu Qiong (吴琼), CFA (852) 3988 6926 qiong.wu@bocigroup.com 随着近期鹰派官员与鸽派官员的激烈交锋，市场普遍预计 12 月会议将 是一次鹰派降息。这次会议中，美联储如期降息 25 基点，但整体基调 远不及市场的鹰派预期。 会议声明：反对票数略低于预期；措辞鹰鸽参半；早于预期和更大初始 规模启动扩表。 在政策展望中，会议声明重新引入"在考虑额外调整的程度和时机 （the extent and timing of…）"的表述。在美联储的话语体系中，这 句话表明未来决策保持灵活，但 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company, with a market price of RMB 9.55 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Longping High-Tech is a leading player in the domestic seed industry, with a well-established industrial layout and a focus on high-quality development. The company's research capabilities are industry-leading, and its asset quality is continuously improving, leading to a positive outlook for its medium to long-term development [2][5]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 85.8 billion, RMB 92.2 billion, and RMB 99.3 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +0.1%, +7.5%, and +7.7% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 2.0 billion, RMB 3.1 billion, and RMB 4.5 billion for the same years, with growth rates of +71.4%, +57.6%, and +46.8% respectively. The current market capitalization corresponds to P/E ratios of 71.9X, 45.6X, and 31.1X for the years 2025 to 2027 [6][8]. Company Overview - Longping High-Tech, established in 1999 and listed in 2000, is recognized as a modern high-tech seed enterprise. The company has a comprehensive business structure that includes seed operations and agricultural services, focusing on major crops such as rice, corn, and wheat, as well as specialized crops like cucumbers and sunflowers [16][18]. Research and Development - The company leads the industry in R&D investment, with RMB 6.9 billion allocated in 2024, representing 9.1% of its revenue. The number of dedicated R&D personnel reached 712, accounting for 17.02% of the total workforce. The company has significantly increased its plant variety applications, with 113 authorized in 2024 compared to just 12 in 2016 [31][39]. Market Position - Longping High-Tech holds a dominant position in the seed market, with a market share of 42% in corn seeds and 36% in rice seeds. The company is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in Brazil, where it ranks among the top three corn seed companies [17][44]. Strategic Acquisitions - The company has accelerated its acquisition strategy since the entry of CITIC Group as a major shareholder in 2016, enhancing its market position and operational capabilities through various acquisitions in the seed industry [28][30].

Daily Spotlight 11 December 2025 Michael MENG (852) 3988 6433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance | | Last close | % 1D | % YTD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 25,541 | 0.4 | 27.3 | | HSCEI | 8,955 | 0.2 | 22.8 | | HSCCI | 4,119 | (0.3) | 8.9 | | MSCI HK | 13,504 | (0.7) | 27.8 | | MSCI CHINA | 84 | 0.2 | 29.3 | | FTSE CHINA A50 | 15,272 | (0.6) | 13.0 | | CSI 300 | 4,592 | (0.1) | 16.7 | | TWSE | 28,401 | 0.8 | 23.3 | | SENSEX | 84,666 | (0.5) | 8.4 | | NIKKEI 225 | 50,603 | (0.1) | 26.8 | | K ...

非银金融 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 强于大市 本次风险因子调整降低了保险公司部分长期持仓股票及外贸保险业务相关的 风险因子，旨在培育壮大耐心资本，加大保险行业对外贸企业的支持力度， 有效服务国家战略，有助于提升保险公司资本运用效率，加强资产负债匹配 管理，且有助于股票市场健康稳定发展。对证券行业而言，长期资金入市将 带来增量机构服务业务需求。在行业景气度向好的背景下板块长期估值中枢 有望提升，建议布局头部券商扩大综合优势与中小券商打造差异化特色化竞 争力两条主线。 要点 投资建议 监管政策定调积极，券商板块估值存在向上空间。截至 12 月 9 日，板块 市净率 1.38 倍，位于近十年 35%~36%分位。当前监管政策定调积极，引 导资本市场生态优化与机构高质量发展，证券行业"十五五"发展路径 清晰，政策为增量"耐心资本"入市打开空间，在行业景气度上升背景 下板块长期估值中枢有望上升。建议关注头部综合券商优势扩大以及特 色中小券商错位发展两条主线。 风险提示 监管政策、宏观经济发展及市场流动性表现不及预期；证券市场及利率 大幅波动导致业绩波动加剧；资本市场开放加速带来海 ...