Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The report discusses the "Triffin Dilemma" and the decline of the global circulation of the US dollar, highlighting that the US is the primary trade deficit country, contributing significantly to global imbalances [2][6] - It notes that the dollar's global circulation has led to a situation where the US faces a contradiction between its hegemony and the dollar's dominance, potentially threatening its long-term power [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for China to focus on domestic demand and consumption transformation to reduce reliance on external factors [7] Group 2: Currency and Foreign Exchange Market - In 2025, the US dollar index experienced its largest decline in eight years, dropping over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the biggest drop since 1974 [3][8] - The report indicates that the RMB appreciated against the dollar in 2025, contrasting with previous years of depreciation, and highlights a reversal in the domestic foreign exchange supply-demand relationship [8][9] - It suggests that the RMB's exchange rate may remain stable with potential for fluctuations, influenced by various factors [9] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Policy - The report identifies a decline in consumer spending willingness, with the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) dropping to 0.61 by the end of 2025, indicating a decrease in consumer confidence [9][10] - It highlights that traditional industries and small to medium enterprises are facing challenges in job absorption, which could further impact consumer spending [10][11] - The "Promoting Consumption" initiative is emphasized as a key strategy for 2026, focusing on increasing residents' income and enhancing consumption capacity [11] Group 4: Industry Performance and Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that the storage industry is entering a new cycle driven by AI and data expansion, with prices expected to continue rising due to tight supply and high demand for new technologies [34][35] - It highlights the high growth potential in the space photovoltaic sector, driven by significant expansions in solar capacity by US companies and increasing satellite deployments [37][41] - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the storage supply chain and those engaged in space photovoltaic technology, suggesting a strong investment outlook in these areas [36][41]

Group 1 - The report highlights a "spring excitement" market entering a phase of high volatility and structural differentiation, focusing on the dual main lines of metals and technology (AI applications and commercial aerospace) [2][12] - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to benefit from both industrial trends and financial attributes in 2026, driven by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions, particularly in rare earths and strategic metals [12][21] - The report notes a significant decline in the allocation of active equity funds to Hong Kong stocks, dropping to 15.9% in Q4 2025 from an average of 19.3% in the previous three quarters, indicating a weakening of overall pricing power [22][28] Group 2 - The AI application market is not finished but is expected to become more differentiated and focused, particularly on clear business models and rapid implementation in AI marketing, healthcare, and programming [33][34] - Major companies are accelerating their entry into the AI healthcare sector, which shows strong commercial potential due to its essential consumption characteristics and high payment willingness from both consumers and enterprises [36] - The report indicates that the global satellite launch and low-orbit constellation construction are accelerating, leading to an upward expectation for space photovoltaics, with potential for customized development in the materials sector [12][38]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of rising international oil and natural gas prices, leading to price increases in disperse dyes and refrigerant R125 [1] - Key investment suggestions for January include focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the effects of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials companies amid strong downstream demand [1][11] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in demand supported by policy, ongoing supply-side optimization, and the growth prospects in emerging sectors such as semiconductor materials and OLED materials [11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of January 19-25, 43 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 24 experienced declines, and 33 remained stable [10][32] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas rose by 62.90% to $5.05 per mmbtu, and WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.74% to $61.07 per barrel [10][33] Investment Recommendations - As of January 23, the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the SW basic chemical sector is 29.45, placing it in the 84.71 percentile historically, while the P/E for the SW oil and petrochemical sector is 14.08, in the 42.32 percentile historically [11] - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Yike Technology, among others, with a focus on companies benefiting from strong demand and favorable pricing conditions [11] Price Changes and Market Trends - The price of disperse dyes increased, with disperse black ECT300% averaging 18 yuan/kg, a rise of 5.88% [34] - Refrigerant R125 prices rose to 50,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.09% increase from the previous week and a 16.38% increase year-on-year [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue rapid growth through 2026, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices have been on the rise, recently surpassing 180,000 RMB per ton, which will impact the pricing of cathode materials and batteries [1]. - The solid-state battery technology is entering a critical phase of engineering validation, with a focus on related materials and equipment companies [1]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the report emphasizes a "de-involution" strategy, with Tesla's CEO announcing plans to enhance solar manufacturing capacity, which is expected to boost the output of core equipment and materials in China [1]. - The demand for wind power is projected to remain strong, with government initiatives supporting significant new projects [1]. - The energy storage sector is expected to maintain high demand, with a recommendation to focus on energy cell and large-scale integration manufacturers [1]. - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to see increased demand, particularly in green hydrogen applications, with a focus on equipment and operational segments [1]. - The report highlights the long-term potential of nuclear fusion as a future energy direction, suggesting attention to core suppliers in this area [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The power equipment and new energy sector saw a 3.57% increase this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][10]. - The wind power sector experienced the highest growth at 7.78%, followed by power generation equipment at 6.54% and nuclear power at 4.16% [2][13]. New Energy Vehicles - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in January is estimated at around 1.8 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for approximately 800,000 units and a penetration rate of 44.4% [2]. Battery Materials - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with battery-grade prices reaching approximately 171,500 RMB per ton, reflecting a 12.46% increase [14]. - The report notes that the price of NCM523 and NCM811 cathode materials has also risen, indicating a trend of increasing costs across battery materials [14]. Photovoltaic Sector - The report indicates that silicon material prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with current prices for dense materials around 50-60 RMB per kg [15]. - The price of battery cells has increased, with N-type battery cells reaching approximately 0.42 RMB per watt [17]. Energy Storage - The price of lithium concentrate has risen significantly, with CIF prices reaching approximately 1,955 USD per ton, marking a 28.2% increase [24]. - Energy cell prices for square lithium iron phosphate have also increased, with a range of 0.395-0.465 RMB per watt-hour [25]. Hydrogen Energy - The report highlights the potential for green hydrogen demand to grow, particularly in applications related to coal chemical processes and green methanol [1]. Nuclear Fusion - The report suggests that nuclear fusion could catalyze future energy developments, recommending attention to core suppliers in this field [1].

美国政府仍将贸易摩擦视为重要筹码，对金融市场的扰动可能重复上演。但 外部政策扰动背景客观上有利于国内保持流动性充裕。 相关研究报告 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《美国经济：失速还是滞胀？》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 《贸易摩擦将迎关键数据》20250427 《美国财政前景的变数》20250609 《财政、司法、货币、贸易纠缠中的关税摩擦》 20250701 固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2026 年 1 月 25 日 外部政策扰动与国内流动性 高频数据扫描 固定收益 《从通胀形势看美联储"换帅"可能性》20250720 《美国就业数据爆冷、财政变数增加》20250908 《如何看长期收益率后续走势》20251013 《美联储的暗示与基本面的趋势》20251103 《关税辩论、就业降温、美债震荡》20251110 《AI 效益与美债》20 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market performance, valuation metrics, style indices, and fund flows without detailing quantitative model construction or factor definitions[1][2][3] - No formulas or detailed construction processes for models or factors are provided in the report[1][2][3]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 24 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62% 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.10%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 3.38%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 2.82%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率与上周持平，收于 1.00%；十年国债收益率下行 1BP 至 1.83%，活跃十 年国债期货本周上涨 0.12%。 资产配置建议 2025 年经济增长目标圆满实现，2026 年稳增长需要财政政策和货币政策 协同发力。2025 年我国经济经历了美国关税政策给全球贸易带来的不确 定性冲击，出现了名义 GDP 和实际 GDP 同比增速倒挂的情况，内需对经 济增长前景预期偏弱导致需求疲弱，工业企业利润同比增速整体偏低等情 况，为稳定经济，我国实施了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，推 出"两重""两新"政策支持经济转型升级和内需有效释放，落实"反内卷"政 策引导实体经济持续向好发展，最终实现了全年经济增长 5%的目标。2026 年全球经济 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 24 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62% 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 相关研究报告 《中银量化多策略行业轮动周报 – 20260122》20260123 《"根本特里芬难题"与美元全球大循环的兴 衰》20260123 《2025 年外汇市场分析报告》20260122 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：陈琦 qi.chen@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110003 证券分析师：朱启兵 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 0.10%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 3.38%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 2.82%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率与上周持平，收于 1.00%；十年国债收益率下行 1BP 至 1.83%，活跃十 年国债期货本周上涨 0.12%。 资产配置建议 2025 年经济增长目标圆满实现，2026 年稳增长需要财政政策和货币政策 协同发力。2025 年我国经济经历了 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, supported by net exports contributing 1.6 percentage points to the growth[10] - Domestic demand remains insufficient, with fixed asset investment declining by 3.8% year-on-year, significantly down from 2024[12] Consumer Behavior - The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) decreased to 0.61 by the end of 2025, down 0.08 from 2024[21] - Per capita consumer spending reached 29,000 yuan in 2025, a growth of 4.4% compared to 2024, marking the lowest growth rate since 2023[21] Employment and Income Trends - The average number of employees in industrial enterprises fell by 1.5% year-on-year as of November 2025, indicating a decline in employment absorption capacity[37] - The average disposable income per capita was 43,000 yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.0% increase from 2024, but the growth rate is slowing[32] Policy Implications - The "惠民生" (benefit people's livelihood) policy is emphasized as a key strategy to boost consumption in 2026, focusing on income growth and consumer support[46] - The government plans to implement measures to enhance consumer capacity, including support for small and medium enterprises and expanding investment channels[46][47] Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical uncertainties and persistent inflation in the U.S. pose risks to economic stability and consumer confidence[52][53] - The slow recovery of market expectations among domestic entities may hinder the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies in 2026[54]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with the highest weights in basic chemicals (22.4%), non-bank financials (11.0%), and building materials (10.9%) [1] - The report tracks the performance of various strategies, indicating that the long-term reversal strategy has achieved a monthly excess return of 2.2%, while the implied sentiment momentum strategy has a weekly excess return of 0.9% [2][3] - The report identifies the top three industries based on profitability expectations as coal, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials, while the worst performers include media, computers, and pharmaceuticals [10][15] Industry Performance Review - The average weekly return for the CITIC first-level industries is 0.9%, with a one-month average return of 6.0% [10] - The best-performing industries for the week are building materials (7.4%), oil and petrochemicals (6.2%), and basic chemicals (3.8%), while the worst are media (-5.5%), computers (-3.6%), and pharmaceuticals (-3.0%) [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying industries with a PB ratio above the 95th percentile as overvalued [12] - Current industries triggering high valuation warnings include retail, computers, non-ferrous metals, defense, oil and petrochemicals, electronics, media, and machinery [13] Strategy Performance - The report details the performance of various strategies, with the highest weight currently in the traditional multi-factor scoring strategy (21.3%) and the lowest in the macro style industry rotation strategy (17.5%) [3] - The composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 4.7% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC first-level industry equal-weight benchmark by 0.4% [3] Sector Rankings and Sentiment Indicators - The top three sectors based on implied sentiment indicators are basic chemicals, light industry manufacturing, and electric power equipment and new energy [19] - The macro indicators favoring the top six industries include banking, oil and petrochemicals, coal, home appliances, non-ferrous metals, and construction [22]