中银量化大类资产跟踪 A 股市场缩量反弹，贵金属涨幅居前 金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 11 月 30 日 股票市场概览 本周 A 股市场整体上涨，港股市场整体上涨，美股市场普遍上涨，其 他海外权益市场普遍上涨。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：相对拥挤度及超额净值近期处于历史较高位置，需注 意成长风格的配置风险。 小盘 vs 大盘：相对拥挤度及超额净值均未处于历史高位，小盘风格 当前具有较高的配置性价比。 微盘股 vs 中证 800：相对拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史高位，需注 意微盘股风格的配置风险。 A 股行情跟踪 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 汇率市场 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值，离岸人民币较美元升值。 商品市场 本周中国商品市场整体上涨，美国商品市场整体下跌。 风险提示 量化模型因市场剧烈变动失效。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 金融工程 证券分析师: 郭策 (8610) 66229081 ce.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080002 联系人：宋坤笛 (8610) 83949524 kundi.s ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to warm up for a bull market in early 2025, with stable funds likely to support the market amid unchanged policy attitudes. The current adjustment is seen as a healthy correction within the bull market, setting the stage for a pre-spring rally at the end of the year and the beginning of the next [4][2] - The AI industry chain is anticipated to be the main line for investment during this period, benefiting from improved liquidity expectations and risk appetite. The Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext indices are expected to lead the recovery in broad-based indices [4][2] - The AI industry chain remains optimistic, with strong downstream demand and short-term supply challenges in AI infrastructure, presenting investment opportunities in power supply and computing power, particularly in domestic computing power [4][2] December Stock Picks - The December stock picks from Zhongyin Securities include: - Poly Real Estate Group (Real Estate) - Jitu Express-W (Transportation) - China Merchants Energy (Transportation) - Wanhua Chemical (Chemicals) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Huayou Cobalt (New Energy) - Anjii Food (Food and Beverage) - Changbai Mountain (Social Services) - Feiliwa (Electronics) [6][8] Real Estate Industry: Poly Real Estate Group - The company experienced a 48.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.3% due to investment losses and increased minority shareholder losses [8][9] - The company’s gross margin improved to 17.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin decreased to 1.3% [8][9] - The company’s debt structure has improved, with total interest-bearing debt decreasing by 8.6% year-on-year, and all "three red lines" indicators turning green, indicating a healthier financial position [9][10] Transportation Industry: Jitu Express-W - The company achieved a total revenue of $5.499 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with significant growth in the Southeast Asian market [13][14] - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia increased to 32.8%, while the Chinese market saw a 20% increase in package volume [14][15] - The company is focusing on cost optimization and has implemented a flexible pricing mechanism to enhance competitiveness [15] Transportation Industry: China Merchants Energy - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue to 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, but net profit increased by 5.59% to 5.107 billion yuan, indicating resilient profitability [16][17] - The fourth quarter saw a significant increase in shipping volume, particularly in high-value routes, contributing to a strong performance [16][17] Chemical Industry: Wanhua Chemical - The company’s revenue from polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals in the first half of 2025 was 36.888 billion yuan, 34.934 billion yuan, and 15.628 billion yuan, respectively, with the petrochemical segment facing short-term pressure [19][20] - The company’s management reforms have led to improved cost control and resource allocation efficiency, which is expected to enhance future performance [19][20] Chemical Industry: Anji Technology - The company reported continuous high growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 56.61% [23][24] - The company’s polishing liquid sales increased by 38.23% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the semiconductor market [24][25] New Energy Industry: Huayou Cobalt - The company achieved a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.59%, with a revenue growth of 29.57% [26][27] - The company is advancing its integrated layout with ongoing project developments in nickel and lithium production [26][27] Food and Beverage Industry: Anjii Food - The company reported a revenue increase of 6.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by product innovation and channel expansion [28][29] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and cost control, maintaining stable profitability despite rising raw material costs [29][30] Social Services Industry: Changbai Mountain - The company experienced a 6.99% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in tourist numbers during the peak season [31][32] - External transportation upgrades and internal project developments are expected to enhance future growth prospects [32] Electronics Industry: Feiliwa - The company is investing in expanding its quartz electronic fabric production capacity to meet the growing demand for high-end PCB materials [33][34] - The demand for quartz electronic fabric is expected to increase due to advancements in Ethernet switch chip technology [34][35]

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 11 月 30 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20251127 当前（2025 年 11 月 27 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：非银行金融 （11.5%）、交通运输（9.9%）、通信（8.8%）、基础化工（8.1%）、食 品饮料（7.9%）、有色金属（6.9%）、银行（6.4%）、家电（4.4%）、 纺织服装（4.2%）、综合（4.0%）、钢铁（4.0%）、煤炭（3.9%）、农 林牧渔（3.3%）、国防军工（3.2%）、医药（3.2%）、电力设备及新能 源（3.1%）、机械（1.8%）、电子（1.8%）、石油石化（1.2%）、电力 及公用事业（1.2%）、建筑（1.2%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（九）：长期反 转-中期动量-低拥挤"行业轮动策略》20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Inflation drives the continuous rise in yields, but it should be based on the premise that real economic growth is not significantly affected. The domestic bond market is under pressure this week, and the reasons may be the unfulfilled market expectation of interest rate cuts and the inflation rebound indicated by price indicators. It is necessary to observe the feedback of real growth indicators on the price rebound [2]. - Three important Fed officials expressed a dovish attitude towards a December rate cut this week. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the key level of 4.0% again. In the early stage of the Fed's rate cut cycle, this is an important threshold for the US Treasury yield. Although the medium - term outlook for the decline in US Treasury yields is positive, due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the 10 - year US Treasury yield may rebound above 4% even if it falls below this level in the near term [2]. - The consumer season in the US has started. If US residents' consumption remains strong, it may affect the decline in inflation in November and December [2]. Summary by Directory Inflation and Bond Market Pressure - **Domestic Bond Market Pressure**: The domestic bond market is under pressure this week. The 10 - year yield of China Treasury bonds exceeded 1.85% on Thursday for the first time since October this year but fell back on Friday. The market's unfulfilled expectation of interest rate cuts and the inflation rebound indicated by price indicators may be the reasons. Widespread policy rate cuts are not an urgently needed tool at present, and the continuous rise in yields driven by inflation should be based on the premise that real economic growth is not significantly affected [2]. - **US Treasury at a Key Point**: Three Fed officials expressed a dovish attitude towards a December rate cut. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is approaching 4.0% again. In the 2007 rate cut cycle, the 10 - year US Treasury yield only remained stably below 4% after the federal funds rate dropped to a very low level. The US Treasury still faces the risk of fiscal imbalance, and changes in US tariff policies may impact the US fiscal balance in the short term. The consumer season in the US has started, and strong consumer demand may affect the decline in inflation in November and December. In the medium term, the outlook for the decline in US Treasury yields is positive, but there is a risk of rebound [2]. - **Production Material Price Index Rebound**: This week, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 23.72% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased by 1.23% week - on - week and 15.88% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.10% week - on - week and 3.92% year - on - year in the week of November 21. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.06% week - on - week; the South China Iron Ore Index increased by 0.85% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 1.57% week - on - week; the inventory index of rebar decreased by 3.77% week - on - week; the price index of rebar increased by 0.88% week - on - week; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills decreased by 1.34% week - on - week. The production material price index increased by 0.20% week - on - week and decreased by 2.72% year - on - year in the week of November 21. The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.95% and 1.38% week - on - week respectively. The average daily trading volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities from November 1 - 25 this year was about 243,000 square meters per day, compared with about 390,000 square meters per day in November 2024 [2]. High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Comparison**: Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between domestic industrial added value and PPI year - on - year, the relationship between the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the federal funds rate, etc. [8][19] - **US and European Important High - Frequency Indicators**: Charts show indicators such as the US weekly economic indicators and real economic growth rate, the number of initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate in the US, etc. [89] - **Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data**: The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, with all seasonal trend indicators being month - on - month increases and the unit being %. [103] - **High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen**: The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are shown. [151]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the increase in overseas natural gas prices and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, while methionine prices have decreased. It suggests focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials companies amid price increases [1][12][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of November 24-30, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 29 saw price increases, 33 saw decreases, and 38 remained stable. Overall, 51% of products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 37% saw a decrease [8][31]. - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 170,000 CNY/ton, marking a 1.80% increase from the previous week and a 65.85% increase from the previous month [33]. - Methionine prices fell to 18.60 CNY/kg, down 3.13% from the previous week and 9.27% from the previous month [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the effects of "anti-involution" on supply, and companies in electronic materials and new energy materials that are experiencing price increases. It also suggests a long-term investment strategy based on policy support for demand recovery and supply-side optimization [12][31]. - Specific companies recommended include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, with a focus on sectors like fluorochemicals, agricultural chemicals, and new energy materials [12][31]. Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index rose by 2.98%, while the oil and petrochemical sector fell by 0.73% during the same week [8][12]. - The report notes that the WTI crude oil price closed at $58.55/barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.84%, and the Brent crude oil price closed at $63.20/barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.02% [9][32]. Price Trends - The report details that sulfur, ammonium nitrate, and other products saw significant price increases, while methionine and epoxy propane experienced notable declines [31][35]. Key Stocks - December's "golden stocks" include Wanhua Chemical and Anji Technology, reflecting strong performance and growth potential in their respective sectors [5][12].

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive growth trend in industrial enterprise profits for the first ten months of 2025, with a total profit of CNY 59,502.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [5][6] - The report emphasizes the impact of raw material prices on the profitability of industrial enterprises, indicating that these prices remain a significant drag on earnings [5][6] - A new consumption promotion plan issued by six ministries aims to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027, creating three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [8][9] Macroeconomic Overview - Industrial enterprises maintained a year-on-year profit growth, although the growth rate slowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters [5] - In October, industrial profits saw a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, with a month-on-month drop of 27.1 percentage points [5] - The report notes that the mining sector's contribution to profits has been consistently low this year [5] Revenue and Cost Analysis - For the first ten months, industrial enterprises reported a revenue growth of 1.8%, with a slight decrease in revenue per hundred yuan of assets to CNY 74.5 [6] - Operating costs increased by 2.0%, with the profit margin remaining stable at 5.3% [6] - The report indicates that industrial production activities remain active, but pricing pressures persist, with PPI and production material PPI showing negative year-on-year growth [6][7] Consumption Promotion Plan - The plan aims for a significant optimization of the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, with a focus on new technologies and innovative business models [8][9] - It emphasizes the importance of matching supply with diverse consumer needs, including specific demographics such as children, students, and the elderly [10] - The report outlines the creation of new consumption scenarios and business formats, supported by a favorable development environment [11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies related to employment, tourism, and cultural consumption, as well as those involved in sports events and creative industries [12]

从"量"、"价"角度看，1-10 月工业生产活动维持活跃，但价格端表 现仍较弱势。一方面，1-10 月工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，增速较前三季 度微幅下滑 0.1 个百分点，生产端仍能对当期工业企业盈利形成支撑。 另一方面，1-10 月 PPI、生产资料 PPI 同比增速仍为负，分别下降 2.7% 和 3.2%，但降幅均较 9 月微幅收窄 0.1 个百分点，工业品出厂价格表现 仍对工业企业盈利有所掣肘。 原材料价格仍是当前工业企业盈利能力的主要拖累。1-10 月生产资料 PPI 同比降幅仍较明显。在此前深度报告《我们如何理解国内"低通 胀"？》中，我们指出，国内工业品价格弱势受到国际大宗商品价格震 荡、国内地产投资不振等因素的共同影响，从 10 月的状况看： 首先，10 月煤炭开采和洗选业的进口价格指数（环比）为 73.7，低于 100 的上月基线水平，环比延续负增长，煤炭进口价格持续不振，1-10 月煤炭开采及洗选业对工业企业利润总额同比增速的负贡献为 4.2 个百 分点。 其次，地产投资仍对我国固定资产投资表现有所拖累，1-10 月累计同比 下降 14.7%，拖累当期固投增速 3.0 个百分点，仍是需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - New home transaction area has seen a month-on-month increase of 6.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 31.5%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous week [7] - The second-hand housing market also shows a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%, with a similar trend of narrowing decline [7] - The report highlights the implementation of a housing inspection system in Zhengzhou, targeting residential properties aged 30 years and above [7] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area in 40 cities is 206.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.5% [18] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities is 11,343 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% [42] - The second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities is 169.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.2% [50] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities is 1,836.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 95.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 39.1% [67] - The total transaction price of land is 362.5 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 56.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 60.3% [67] - The average floor price of land is 1,973.6 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decrease of 20.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 34.8% [67] 3. Policy Overview - The report notes that the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a continuous decline in the inventory of unsold commercial housing, with a reduction of 3.22 million square meters from the previous month [106] - The report emphasizes the government's focus on controlling new supply and optimizing existing inventory to alleviate market pressure [106] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou [7] - It also highlights smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, such as Poly Real Estate Group [7] - Companies exploring new consumption scenarios and operational models in commercial real estate, like Joy City and China Resources, are also recommended [7]

中银国际固定收益研究 Fixed Income Research 中银国际固定收益研究 BOCI Fixed Income Research 2025. 11. 21 Wiley Huang (黄为一), CFA (852) 3988 6324 wileywy.huang@bocigroup.com Wu Qiong (吴琼), CFA (852) 3988 6926 qiong.wu@bocigroup.com 利率、汇率、信用 中国固定收益研究 Rates, Currencies & Credits China Fixed Income Research 美债市场近况与展望——10 月 FOMC 纪要、非农数据、 以及 K 型经济困局 图 1. 美联储官员近期政策立场 | 阵营 | 票委 | 非票委 | | --- | --- | --- | | 鹰派 | Barr, Schmid, Goolsbee, Collins | Hammack, Kashkari, Logan | | 中立 | Powell, Jefferson, Cook, Williams*, Musalem | Daly, Bostic ...

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates are rising while ocean freight rates are declining. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) reached 2325.40 points on November 20, up 4.2% from November 13. VLCC market activity remains strong, but overall market activity is expected to decline without actual cargo support [3][14] - Changlong Airlines has initiated its IPO process, and VOLANT has signed a confirmation order for the VE25-100 eVTOL aircraft with a state-owned investment group, with the order amount exceeding 100 million yuan [3][16] - The China-Europe Railway Express has surpassed 3500 trips this year, marking a historical high. A new "passenger-cargo-mail integration" model has been launched in cooperation between Rizhao Public Transport and SF Express [3][22] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates are high while ocean freight rates are declining. The Shanghai port export price to Europe was $1367/TEU, down 3.5%, and to the US West and East Coast was $1645/FEU and $2384/FEU, down 9.8% and 8.3% respectively [3][15] - Changlong Airlines is preparing for its IPO, with a focus on expanding its operational capacity and market reach [3][16] - The China-Europe Railway Express has achieved a record of over 3500 trips this year, with a focus on high-value goods transportation [3][23] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in air freight pricing [4][28] - Domestic express delivery volume increased by 7.90% year-on-year in October 2025, with total express delivery volume reaching 176 billion pieces [4][50] - The national highway freight truck traffic increased by 2.57% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in road logistics [4][18] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Attention to the low-altitude economy sector, with recommendations for CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Investment opportunities in the road and rail sectors, recommending companies such as Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5]