Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 420.51 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 137.94 billion, up 11.38% year-on-year. Despite a decline in oil prices, the company managed to grow its net profit and enhance its oil and gas resource reserves, showcasing its sustainable development capabilities [4][9]. - The report highlights the company's steady growth in oil and gas production and reserves, with a target production of 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2025. The company has also made significant discoveries both domestically and internationally, reinforcing its low-cost advantage and profitability [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company's financial performance shows a robust operating cash flow of RMB 220.89 billion in 2024, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.05%, down 4.53% year-on-year. The gross profit margin and net profit margin improved to 53.63% and 32.81%, respectively [9][10]. - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be RMB 138.15 billion, RMB 138.75 billion, and RMB 142.25 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.91, RMB 2.92, and RMB 2.99 [6][12]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-book ratio (PB) is projected to be 1.5x for 2025, 1.4x for 2026, and 1.2x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its earnings growth [6][12]. - The report also notes a dividend payout ratio of 44.7% for 2024, with a commitment to maintain a payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong return to shareholders [9][10].

资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 3 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《中国石化》20240829 《中国石化》20240328 《中国石化》20230922 石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 7 日 600028.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 5.78 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (11.9) 0.7 (12.0) (11.1) 相对上证综指 (14.3) (0.1) (16.1) (20.0) 发行股数 (百万) 121,281.56 (12%) (7%) (1%) 4% 9% 14% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Apr-25 中国石化 上证综指 | 流通股 (百万) | 118,891.12 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 701,007.39 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 813.94 ...

Group 1 - The current market is in a risk-off phase due to the significant impact of "reciprocal tariffs" introduced by the Trump administration, leading to increased volatility in global markets and a potential rise in the risk of stagflation in the US economy [2][7][9] - Domestic policies aimed at boosting internal demand are becoming increasingly necessary, with expectations for accelerated fiscal measures and potential monetary easing to stabilize the market [2][7][9] - The A-share market is facing adjustment pressure from both internal and external factors, with a need to closely monitor policy responses for signs of stabilization [2][9] Group 2 - The performance of various sectors indicates a clear preference for defensive industries such as utilities, banking, and coal, while export-oriented and technology growth sectors are under significant pressure [20][36] - The overall earnings growth for A-share companies is projected to be -0.2% for 2024, with non-financial companies showing a decline of -7.4%, indicating a challenging recovery process [22][23] - There is a recommendation to focus on sectors with improving earnings, particularly in domestic demand and dividend-paying stocks, such as retail, engineering machinery, and precious metals [22][23][33] Group 3 - The recent increase in passenger traffic during the Qingming Festival indicates a recovery in offline consumption, although hotel and flight prices continue to decline [26][27][29] - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a turning point due to improved policies and the integration of AI technology, which enhances drug development efficiency and diagnostic capabilities [32][33] - The impact of tariffs on industries heavily reliant on exports, such as machinery, new energy vehicles, and electronics, is expected to be significant, with potential declines in export volumes [2][9][33]

Impact on Exports and GDP - If the 54% tariff is fully borne by Chinese exporters, it could lead to a 33.5% decrease in exports to the U.S., resulting in a 4.9 percentage point decline in total exports[10] - If the tariff burden is shared equally, the impact on exports would be approximately 2.5 percentage points[10] - The direct impact on GDP from a 4.9 percentage point decline in exports is estimated at 1.25 trillion yuan, with an indirect impact of around 800 billion yuan, totaling a 2.05 trillion yuan impact on GDP, affecting GDP growth by 1.53 percentage points[18] Consumption and Investment Projections - In 2024, actual growth in final consumption expenditure is projected at 3.9%, significantly lower than the 2012-2019 average of 5.2%[20] - If final consumption expenditure growth can return to the 2020-2023 average of 5.2%, it could contribute 2.93 percentage points to GDP growth[23] - A recovery to 2019's growth rate of 5.96% could increase the contribution to 3.36 percentage points[23] - Capital formation growth in 2024 is expected at 3.1%, slightly above the 2022 level of 2.7%[20] Policy Measures and Risks - Macro policies are being adjusted to stimulate domestic demand, with a targeted deficit rate increase to 4% and a total government debt increase of 11.86 trillion yuan[20] - The effectiveness of these policies in countering the tariff impacts will be crucial for achieving the 2025 growth target of around 5%[23] - Risks include potential inadequacies in policy measures, rising geopolitical tensions, and global recession risks[23]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 4 月 6 日 周度金融市场跟踪 受美国 " 对等关税 " 影响全球主要股市多数下 跌，债券市场利率大幅下行（ 3 月 31 日 -4 月 4 日） ◼ 股票方面，本周 A 股缩量走弱，周四面对美国超预期"对等关税"，A 股表现出一 定的韧性。由于清明假期少一个交易日，周五全球股市的大幅下跌尚未计价。本 周 A 股大盘股和小盘股跌幅差异不大，中证 2000 指数下跌 1.1%、中证 1000 指 数下跌 1.0%、沪深 300 指数下跌 1.4%、上证 50 指数下跌 0.7%，微盘股上涨 1.6%。港股本周连续第四周下跌，恒生指数下跌 2.5%，恒生科技指数下跌 3.5%。 行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业中 10 个行业收涨，行业涨跌情况与上周基本一致 （图表 9），公用事业、农林牧渔和医药生物领涨，汽车、电力设备和家用电器 领跌。周内看，本周一（3 月 31 日）延续上周跌势，尤其上午下跌较多，下午市 场有所反弹。周二、周三（4 月 1 日-2 日）市场在等待美国宣布"对等关税"政策， 缩量震荡。其中，4 月 2 日交易额不足 1 万亿元，是 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the ongoing US-China trade tensions may provide opportunities for domestic manufacturers in the semiconductor sector, as the dependence of Chinese semiconductors on the US is at a controllable level. Domestic manufacturers are expected to leverage price competitiveness to upgrade high-end products during this tariff conflict [5][6]. - The report emphasizes that the impact of tariffs on the consumer electronics supply chain is manageable, particularly for Apple, which has a significant presence in China. Apple's investment plans in the US may help mitigate tariff impacts [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the implications of the US-China trade war on the electronics industry, noting that the dependence of Chinese semiconductor imports on the US is approximately 5.9%, with specific categories like semiconductor equipment at 9.6% and integrated circuits at 3.1% for 2024 [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several companies, including Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others, as potential investment opportunities within the semiconductor and electronics sectors [3]. Trade Policy Impact - The report outlines that the US has imposed a 34% tariff on all imports from China, which may lead to a prolonged period of trade tension. However, it also notes that this situation could create a favorable environment for domestic manufacturers to enhance their product offerings [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][29] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the optimism regarding the growth of photovoltaic demand in emerging economies despite the increase in tariffs on imported cars in the U.S. and the strengthening of domestic supply chain scarcity [1] - The focus remains on cost reduction and efficiency improvement in photovoltaic manufacturing, with an emphasis on the optimization of leading companies in silicon materials and battery cells [1] - The wind power sector is expected to see steady progress in domestic offshore and onshore bidding and construction, with a positive demand outlook for 2025 [1] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors where profitability is expected to improve, particularly in complete machines and casting components benefiting from offshore wind and overseas demand [1] - In the new energy vehicle sector, the government aims to promote smart connected new energy vehicles, with annual sales expected to maintain high growth, driving demand for batteries and materials [1] - The report notes the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries, with mass production anticipated by 2027, benefiting companies involved in batteries, materials, and equipment [1] - The domestic electricity sector is pushing for reforms that will accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects, maintaining high demand for related equipment [1] - The hydrogen energy sector is being driven by policies promoting industrial development, with applications in green hydrogen and chemical sectors expected to open up [1] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that the photovoltaic sector is experiencing a price adjustment due to supply chain disruptions caused by a recent earthquake in Myanmar, affecting production in several regions [11] - The report also notes that TCL Zhonghuan has raised silicon wafer prices, with significant increases in various specifications [16] Company Dynamics - The report provides insights into the performance of specific companies, such as BYD, which delivered 377,000 vehicles in March, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.8% [16] - Other companies like TBEA and DeYuan have announced significant investment projects, indicating ongoing expansion in the sector [19][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][29] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the optimistic outlook for photovoltaic demand growth in emerging economies despite the increase in tariffs on imported cars and solar products in the U.S. [1] - The focus remains on cost reduction and efficiency improvement in photovoltaic manufacturing, with an emphasis on the optimization of leading companies in silicon materials and battery cells [1] - The wind power sector is expected to see steady progress in domestic and overseas demand, with a positive outlook for profitability recovery in the complete machine and component segments by 2025 [1] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors likely to see improved profitability, particularly in offshore wind and related components [1] - In the electric vehicle sector, the government aims to promote smart connected new energy vehicles, which is expected to drive growth in battery and material demand [1] - The report notes the ongoing development of solid-state battery technology, with mass production anticipated by 2027, benefiting companies involved in battery, materials, and equipment [1] - The electric power equipment sector is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms and high demand for ultra-high voltage and main network construction [1] - The hydrogen energy sector is also highlighted, with policies supporting its industrial development and applications in various sectors [1] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that the U.S. has officially implemented a 25% tariff on imported cars, impacting the supply chain and demand for photovoltaic products [1][16] - The report mentions that TCL Zhonghuan has raised silicon wafer prices, reflecting market adjustments due to supply chain disruptions [16] Company Dynamics - The report provides insights into various companies, including BYD's March delivery of 377,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [16] - It also notes that the net profit of companies like TBEA and Deyang Technology has seen significant changes, with TBEA planning substantial investments in coal-to-gas projects [19][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.751 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.54% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 806 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 1.41% year-on-year [3][8] - The company's RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for all hotels was 167 RMB, down 3.2% year-on-year, indicating resilience in operations compared to the overall industry decline [3][8] - The company opened 1,353 new stores in 2024, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, and plans to open 1,500 new stores in 2025, supported by a reserve of 1,743 stores as of the end of 2024 [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 77.51 billion RMB in 2024, with a slight decline of 0.54% year-on-year. The hotel business generated 72.35 billion RMB in revenue, down 0.58%, while the scenic area business saw a revenue of 5.16 billion RMB, up 0.07% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.06 billion RMB, with a growth of 1.41% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.33 billion RMB, up 1.92% [8] Operational Metrics - The company’s RevPAR, occupancy rate (OCC), and average daily rate (ADR) showed a decline of 4.7%, 1.4 percentage points, and 2.6% respectively, but these declines were less severe than the overall market, indicating operational resilience [8] - The company achieved a net increase of 739 stores, a significant growth of 163.9% year-on-year, with a focus on improving the quality of new openings [8] Future Outlook - The company aims to open 1,500 new stores in 2025, with a strong pipeline of 1,743 stores already reserved, which is expected to support its growth targets [8] - The company is also focusing on high-quality development, with 412 new mid-to-high-end hotels opened in 2024, a 45.6% increase year-on-year [8]

Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" by the Trump administration, effective from April 5, 2025, which raises concerns about short-term "stagflation" risks in the U.S. economy and potential recession fears [2] - The tariffs are expected to increase short-term cost pressures, potentially suppressing demand from both businesses and consumers, leading to heightened "stagflation" concerns and increased uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook [2] - The report emphasizes the necessity for domestic demand support policies in China to counteract short-term external pressures, with expectations of accelerated fiscal measures and potential monetary easing [2] Summary by Sections Tariff Implementation - On April 2, 2025, President Trump signed two executive orders establishing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on all trade partners, with additional personalized tariffs for countries with the largest trade deficits, effective April 9, 2025 [2] - Certain sectors, including steel, aluminum, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals, are exempt from these tariffs, while a 25% tariff on automobiles took effect on April 3, 2025 [2] Economic Impact - The tariffs are likely to exacerbate the existing "stagflation" risks in the U.S. economy, complicating the inflation reduction process and increasing the likelihood of recession [2] - The report notes that the uncertainty surrounding retaliatory measures from other countries and the U.S. economic data's deterioration will further complicate the economic landscape [2] Domestic Policy Response - In response to external pressures, there is an anticipated increase in domestic demand support policies in China, with expectations for accelerated fiscal stimulus and potential monetary easing [2] - The report highlights that the policy expectations for essential consumer goods and the real estate sector are likely to rise [2] Market Implications - Risk assets are expected to face short-term adjustment pressures, with A-shares needing to focus on domestic policy responses for stabilization [2] - The report suggests that essential consumer goods may serve as a safe haven in the A-share market, while mid-term policy responses and stabilization of economic data could boost market confidence [2]