电子 | 证券研究报告 — 最新信息 2025 年 12 月 16 日 002938.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 47.89 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 34.5 7.4 (11.8) 33.2 相对深圳成指 4.5 8.2 (12.6) 10.8 发行股数 (百万) 2,318.05 (27%) (5%) 17% 39% 61% 83% Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 鹏鼎控股 深圳成指 | 流通股 (百万) | 2,309.38 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 111,011.46 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 1,780.60 | | 主要股东 | | | 美港实业有限公司 | 66.19 | | lingyao.su@bocichina.com | | --- | | 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080003 | 证券分析师： ...

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 16 日 投资建议 相关研究报告 《稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式——中央经济工作 会议解读》（2025/12/12） 《房地产高质量发展方向聚焦完善制度、优化供 给、提升品质；城市更新将进入加速推进阶段—— "十五五"规划建议解读》（2025/11/3） 《受低基数以及一线城市新政影响，单月销售降幅 收窄；今年以来单月投资降幅持续扩大——房地产 行业 2025 年 9 月统计局数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《70 城新房房价环比跌幅扩大，二手房持平；时 隔一年再度出现所有城市二手房房价全部下跌的情 形——房地产行业 2025 年 9 月 70 个大中城市房价 数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《资产证券化系列报告二：从"证券化"到"通证 化"，RWA 重构资产投资逻辑》（2025/09/24） 《解密上海楼市：上海楼市周期性与结构性研究》 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 11 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点评 所有 70 城二手房房价连续三个月下跌；一线城市房价 环比跌幅扩大 国家统计局发布 2025 年 11 月份 70 个大中城市 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 12 月 16 日 策略深度报告 风格与趋势共振：新消费投资图景 消费具备轮动补涨配置机会，新消费兼具产业趋势与中期景气双重共振。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师: 王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：高天然 (8610)66229064 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 2025 年 Q2 新消费行情演绎的三重逻辑：1）基本面层面：中美贸易摩 擦下，提振内需政策预期强化；2）资金面层面：全球资金再配置，港 股估值修复，A 股和港股消费共振；3）风格轮动：科技与消费呈现"跷 跷板"效应。从宏观背景与风格轮动逻辑来看，当前市场环境与 2025 年 Q2 有一定相似之处，消费风格具备轮动补涨配置机会：1）基本面层 面：CPI 回暖趋势初现，必选消费市场表现与 CPI 同比有较高相关度， 盈利-估值对比，消费风格具有明确优势；2）资金 ...

强于大市 房地产行业2025 年11 月统计局数据点评 单月投资创历史最大降幅； 1-11 月销售降幅进一步扩大 国家统计局发布 2025 年 11 月份全国房地产开发投资和销售情况。11 月销售面积 6720 万平，同 比增速-17.3%（前值：-18.8%）；开发投资金额 5028 亿元，同比增速-30.3%（前值：-23.0%）； 新开工面积 4396 万平，同比增速-27.6%（前值：-29.5%）。 统计局披露同比增速说明：根据房地产开发统计制度、统计执法检查等规定，对上年同期房地产 开发投资、新建商品房销售面积等数据进行修订，增速按可比口径计算。 核心观点 房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 16 日 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式——中央经济工 作会议解读》（2025/12/12） 《房地产高质量发展方向聚焦完善制度、优化供给、 提升品质；城市更新将进入加速推进阶段——"十 五五"规划建议解读》（2025/11/3） 《受低基数以及一线城市新政影响，单月销售降幅 收窄；今 ...

核心观点 政策 本周中央经济工作会议召开，关于房地产的表述有两部分。一部分在坚持内需主 导，建设强大国内市场中提到高质量发展城市更新。另一部分在坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险中提到着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度 改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 房地产行业第 50 周周报（2025 年 12 月 6 日-2025 年 12 月 12 日） 新房二手房成交同比降幅收窄；中央经济工作会议提出"因城 施策去库存" 新房成交面积同环比降幅均收窄；二手房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；新 房库存面积环比上升、同比下降；去化周期环比下降、同比上升。 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手 ...

Economic Performance - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than October and 1.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, and was below market expectations[12] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with private fixed asset investment down by 5.3%[21] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to November saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% and real estate investment fell by 15.9%[23] - High-tech industries maintained strong performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in industrial added value from January to November[2] - Real estate new construction area decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% and sales revenue down by 11.1%[28] Consumer Behavior - The decline in retail sales was particularly pronounced in post-real estate consumption categories such as furniture and home appliances, which saw significant drops[15] - Online retail accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1%[14] Policy Recommendations - The macroeconomic policy should consider early implementation to address potential uncertainties in the first quarter of 2026, especially given the late timing of the Spring Festival[32] - Short-term focus on monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is recommended[32] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S., and increasing international geopolitical complexities[32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [34]. Core Insights - Alibaba has established the "Qianwen C-end Business Group" to develop an AI super app, aiming to enhance its AI to consumer (AI to C) strategy and create a comprehensive AI assistant for users [10][12]. - OpenAI has released the GPT-5.2 model, which is optimized for professional applications, marking a shift towards specialized capabilities in the AI model competition [13][14]. - The U.S. government has allowed NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China, signaling a shift in export policy towards conditional release rather than outright restrictions [17][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on companies related to the Qianwen and domestic computing power supply chain, including Data Port, Qianfang Technology, Guangyun Technology, Boyan Technology, Shiji Information, Zhongke Shuguang, Haiguang Information, Inspur Information, Horizon Robotics, and Black Sesame Intelligence [3]. Industry News - Alibaba's Qianwen C-end Business Group aims to integrate various consumer-facing services into a single AI super app, enhancing user engagement and accessibility [10][12]. - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model has set new benchmarks in various professional tasks, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [14][16]. - The U.S. has permitted NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China, which are crucial for AI model training, reflecting a strategic adjustment in technology export policies [17][18]. Company Dynamics - The establishment of the Qianwen C-end Business Group by Alibaba represents a significant organizational shift aimed at enhancing its AI capabilities and market presence [12]. - OpenAI's rapid iteration of its models, including the recent release of GPT-5.2, highlights the intense competition in the AI sector and the need for continuous innovation [14][16]. - The policy change regarding the export of H200 chips is expected to alleviate some high-end computing power shortages in China, while also emphasizing the importance of domestic advancements in chip technology [18].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that during the "Black Friday" shopping season, Jitu Express achieved a record high in daily collection volume in Brazil, and the first domestically produced heavy-duty eVTOL successfully completed its maiden flight [2][3] - In shipping, crude oil freight rates have declined from high levels, while freight rates on long-distance routes have shown mixed trends [3][15] - The report notes that the domestic logistics market is experiencing significant growth, particularly in emerging markets [3][25] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) reported at 2324.92 points, a slight increase of 0.1% from December 4 [3][15] - The first domestically produced heavy-duty eVTOL, AR-E800, successfully completed its maiden flight, marking a significant milestone in China's aviation industry [3][17] - Jitu Express reported a record high in daily collection volume in Brazil during the "Black Friday" shopping season, reflecting strong growth in logistics operations [3][25] High-Frequency Dynamic Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year [29] - In October 2025, the express delivery business volume increased by 7.90% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 4.70% [56] - The shipping market has shown mixed trends, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) reported at 1506.46 points, a week-on-week increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 36.82% [43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - It also highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy sectors, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - The report emphasizes the potential in the express delivery sector, recommending companies like SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][45] Core Views - The report highlights the decline in international oil prices and methionine prices, while TDI prices have increased. It suggests focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials companies amid price increases [2][10]. Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 8-14, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 42 saw price increases, 37 saw declines, and 21 remained stable. The average price of TDI rose by 2.49% week-on-week, while methionine prices fell by 2.45% [29][31][32]. - The average cost of TDI was 11,819 CNY/ton, down 0.92% from the previous week, with an average gross profit of 2,766.71 CNY/ton, up 31.79% week-on-week [31]. - The report notes that the SW basic chemical industry P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 24.14, at the 71.18% historical percentile, while the oil and petrochemical industry P/E ratio is 12.85, at the 35.15% historical percentile [10][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued industry leaders and suggests a long-term investment strategy that includes sectors like semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials, which are expected to have significant growth potential [10][29]. - Specific stock recommendations include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, Juhua Co., New Chemical, China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical, and others [10][29].

Macroeconomic Overview - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, with expectations for fiscal spending and financing to remain strong next year [2][21][24] - The monetary policy is set to continue with moderate easing, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][21][22] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order as: equities > commodities > bonds > cash, indicating a preference for equities in the current market environment [3][4] - The focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies is highlighted for equities, suggesting an overweight position [4][38] - Bonds are recommended for underweight allocation due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4][43] - Commodities are suggested for standard allocation, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policy implementation [4][49] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.08% this week, while the CSI 300 index futures fell by 0.07% [1][12] - The futures for coking coal dropped significantly by 11.72%, and iron ore main contracts fell by 3.49% [1][12] - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84%, with active ten-year government bond futures rising by 0.10% [1][12][43] Financial Data Insights - In the first eleven months, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total by 3.99 trillion yuan [24] - The CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, while the PPI saw a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [24][25] Sector-Specific Insights - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index leading gains at 2.74%, while the Shanghai Dividend Index saw a decline of 2.63% [38] - Key sectors such as telecommunications and defense showed strong performance, while coal and oil sectors faced declines [38][39]