Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue growing, with a projected 20% year-on-year increase in domestic sales by 2025, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting a "de-involution" strategy in the battery industry, which is anticipated to restore profitability across the supply chain [1]. - Solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, with a focus on related materials and equipment companies [1]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the "de-involution" strategy is seen as a key investment theme, although terminal demand is currently weak, leading to price fluctuations in the supply chain [1]. - The wind power sector is expected to see sustained growth, with government support for new projects [1]. - The energy storage market remains robust, with rising prices in upstream materials affecting downstream integration [1]. - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to open up demand for green hydrogen, with a focus on downstream applications [1]. - Nuclear fusion is viewed as a long-term energy development direction, with recommendations to focus on core suppliers in this area [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The fourth quarter is a peak sales season, with a forecast of 1.72 million new energy vehicles sold in November 2025, a 20% year-on-year increase [2]. - Cumulative wholesale figures for the year show a 29% increase, totaling 13.78 million vehicles [2]. Battery Industry - The planned production for December 2025 is 148.84 GWh, reflecting a 2.27% month-on-month increase [2]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The utilization rates for wind and photovoltaic power are projected at 96.4% and 94.8% respectively for October 2025 [2]. - The announcement of new brands for polysilicon futures is expected to have limited impact on the supply landscape [1]. Energy Storage - By November 2025, 10 GW/29.7 GWh of energy storage systems have been tendered, with independent storage projects making up 90% of this [2]. - The demand for energy storage remains high, with upstream material price increases pushing up costs in downstream integration [1]. Hydrogen Energy - The National Energy Administration has announced pilot projects for hydrogen energy, indicating a growing focus on this sector [2]. Market Trends - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a slight increase of 0.22% this week, with wind power leading the gains at 3.48% [10]. - The lithium battery index experienced a decline of 3.53%, indicating market volatility [13]. Price Observations - The price of lithium carbonate remains high, with battery-grade prices around 91,000 RMB per ton, reflecting a 2.6% increase [25]. - Energy storage cell prices are stable, with square lithium iron phosphate cells priced between 0.270-0.420 RMB per watt-hour [26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][29] Core Viewpoints - The establishment of the Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration marks a new phase of high-quality development in China's commercial space industry, with a focus on space computing as a core area where AI and commercial space intersect [2][8] - The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence has significantly increased global demand for computing power, while traditional ground data centers face limitations such as energy consumption and land use, making space-based data centers a viable solution [15][16] - The successful launch of the first space computing satellite constellation by Guoxing Aerospace represents a significant milestone in the development of space computing capabilities [18][19] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform the Market," indicating expectations for the industry index to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [1][29] Key Developments - The National Space Administration has initiated the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)," aiming for significant advancements in the commercial space sector by 2027 [8][9] - Major tech companies like Google and OpenAI are entering the space computing arena, with projects aimed at enhancing satellite communication and processing capabilities [12][13] Demand Side - The demand for computing power is driven by the rapid advancement of AI, with space offering advantages such as abundant solar energy and superior cooling conditions compared to ground data centers [15][16] Technology Side - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket signifies the beginning of China's reusable rocket era, which is expected to lower launch costs and increase the frequency of satellite deployments [16][17] Industry Progress - The first space computing satellite constellation has been successfully launched, marking a significant step in establishing a space-based computing network capable of real-time data processing and analysis [18][19] - The construction of space data centers is anticipated to accelerate, creating new application scenarios and business models [22]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, predicting that the current bull market will continue to extend further and last longer, with the Hang Seng Index expected to reach 30,100 points by the end of 2026, based on a forecasted P/E ratio of 13.0 times [2][33] - Key investment opportunities are identified in areas such as strengthening the real economy, promoting technological innovation, developing new productive forces, and expanding domestic demand, which are critical directions outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][36] - The report emphasizes that sectors related to technological innovation and new productive forces are likely to be the most important investment themes in the coming years, suggesting a focus on consumer leading companies, undervalued high-yield state-owned enterprises, and domestic brands benefiting from accelerated substitution processes [2][36] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in the first 11 months of 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 28.9% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 25.3%, placing it among the top global stock markets [3][4] - All industry sectors within the Hang Seng classification experienced gains, with materials, healthcare, and information technology sectors performing particularly well, increasing by 134.3%, 74.1%, and 39.7% respectively [4][7] - The report notes that the average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 2,558 billion, a 95% increase year-on-year, and net inflows from southbound trading amounted to RMB 12,806 billion, significantly higher than the previous year's RMB 6,543 billion [3][21] Group 3 - The report indicates that liquidity in the Hong Kong financial market remains ample, with the banking system's surplus rising significantly due to interventions by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [15][16] - It highlights that southbound trading has played a crucial role in supporting the stability and recovery of the Hong Kong market amid rising geopolitical risks, with companies with mainland backgrounds accounting for 80.59% of the total market capitalization [21][22] - The report anticipates that southbound trading will achieve a net inflow of RMB 1.5 trillion in 2026, surpassing the expected net inflow of RMB 1.33 trillion in 2025 [21][22] Group 4 - The report discusses the normalcy of significant pullbacks during a bull market, noting that the Hang Seng Index experienced a 6.1% decline and the Hang Seng Tech Index a 16.6% decline from late September to late November 2025, which is considered a typical adjustment within historical bull markets [25][29] - It attributes the recent market adjustments to increased internal and external uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns, which have led to cautious investor sentiment [26][27] - Historical data shows that during past bull markets, the Hang Seng Index has experienced average pullbacks ranging from 6% to 20%, indicating that the current adjustments do not fundamentally alter the upward trend of the market [29] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the importance of economic construction as a central focus, suggesting that the recent political statements will boost confidence among entrepreneurs and investors, thereby enhancing the fundamentals of listed companies [33][36] - It outlines that the 14th Five-Year Plan prioritizes the strengthening of the real economy, technological self-reliance, and the expansion of domestic demand, which are expected to drive future market growth [35][36] - The report concludes that the increasing recognition of China's AI technology and the presence of high-quality investment targets in the Hong Kong market will attract both domestic and international capital, fostering a positive investment environment [37]

《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 12 月 5 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20251204 当前（2025 年 12 月 4 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：非银行金融 （11.9%）、银行（9.7%）、交通运输（9.3%）、通信（9.2%）、食品饮 料（7.8%）、有色金属（7.6%）、钢铁（6.9%）、石油石化（4.8%）、 基础化工（4.7%）、家电（4.5%）、农林牧渔（3.5%）、综合金融 （ 3.5% ） 、 综 合 （ 3.5% ） 、 建 材 （ 3.4% ） 、 电 力 设 备 及 新 能 源 （3.4% ）、机械（ 1.9% ）、轻工制造（ 1.9% ）、电力及公用事业 （1.2%）、建筑（1.2%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（九）：长期反 转-中期动量-低拥挤"行 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant divergence in the performance of various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry in 2025, with the CXO and innovative drug-related sectors showing substantial growth, while the medical service sector is expected to gradually recover in 2026 due to a low base effect from 2025 [2][6][58] - The overall performance of the A-share market was positive in 2025, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector ranking 10th with a growth of 34.95%, while the CXO sector led with a growth of 58.71% [6][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of "product-driven" companies, which are expected to enter a profitability cycle as they recover from the impacts of centralized procurement and increase their R&D investments [2][29] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector is projected to continue its upward trend, with business development (BD) opportunities abroad being a key focus, indicating the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs [30][34] - The medical device sector is also expected to follow a similar recovery path as innovative drugs, with increasing R&D investments and a growing number of approved innovative medical devices [43][45] - The medical service sector, despite facing short-term pressures, is anticipated to gradually recover in 2026, supported by an aging population and increasing demand for healthcare services [58] Group 3 - The report suggests specific companies to watch in various sectors, including medical devices (e.g., Sanyou Medical, Aikang Medical), innovative drugs (e.g., Innovent Biologics, Kintor Pharmaceutical), and medical services (e.g., Aier Eye Hospital, Tongce Medical) [2][29] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's overall valuation remains at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.82 times as of October 31, 2025, indicating potential for upward adjustment [19][20] - The report highlights the importance of key product advancements and performance realization in the innovative drug sector, particularly for products like PD-1/VEGF, which have shown promising clinical data and significant market interest [39][40]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 5 日 策略点评 重视人形机器人板块新的 Alpha 机会 建议关注 A 股机器人板块新的 Alpha 机会。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 2024Q3 后，人形机器人指数上涨主要可划分为四阶段：1）"924"、 "926"大盘反转驱动；2）2025Q1 的"春季躁动"阶段；3）2025 年 4 月 7 号贸易摩擦"大跌"后的产业趋势修复；以及 4）2025 年 7-9 月的科 技主升行情阶段。 今年 9 月中旬后，尽管某种程度上可视为机器人行业 Beta 的中证 2000 等指数仍保持在高位震荡区间，但人形机器人指数 Alpha 收益却不断走 低。 我们认为核心在于板块交易的高拥挤度受到多方面警惕、企业同质化加 剧、样机 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to PetroChina with a target price of HK$9.62 for H shares and RMB10.92 for A shares, indicating an expected total absolute return greater than 10% over the next twelve months [6][7][8]. Core Insights - PetroChina's recent reverse roadshow in the Sichuan-Chongqing area highlighted significant potential for increasing natural gas output and plans for downstream gas utilization, which are expected to enhance the company's earnings resilience amid potential declines in oil prices [6][8]. - The growing contribution from PetroChina's gas value-chain operations is anticipated to bolster its earnings stability, providing a buffer against fluctuations in oil prices [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - PetroChina is focusing on enhancing its natural gas production capabilities and downstream utilization strategies, which are crucial for its growth trajectory [6][8]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the increasing emphasis on natural gas operations will position PetroChina favorably in a market that may experience volatility in oil prices [6][8]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation to maintain a "BUY" rating reflects confidence in PetroChina's strategic initiatives and their potential to deliver strong returns in the near future [6][7][8].

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业深度 2025 年 12 月 5 日 强于大市 房地产底线逻辑研究系列报告一 银行直供房热度背后的真相 核心观点 投资建议 风险提示 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期；房企信用修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 证券分析师：许佳璐 (8621)20328710 jialu.xu @bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110002 《房地产行业 2023 年度策略——弩箭已离 弦，能否冰解的破？》（2022/12/18） 《中国真实住房需求还有多少？（2022 版）》 (2022/8/3) 《凡益之道，与时偕行——关于短期博弈与 长期格局的思考》(2022/6/15) 《从历史复盘中探讨本轮地产调控放松的最 佳路径与当前房企的生存法则》(2022/3/31) 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产行业 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070005 银行直供房是指银行通过处置不良贷款获得的房产，在完 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that China National Airlines is the only flag carrier in China and has entered the top tier of global air transport companies, with a comprehensive international route network and a balanced domestic and international presence [1][5][6] - The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet is showing a "step-down" trend, influenced by global supply chain disruptions, leading to a decline in major aircraft manufacturers' order fulfillment capabilities [1][8] - The continuous recovery of the tourism market is expected to boost air travel demand, with the average price of aviation kerosene decreasing compared to the same period last year, enhancing the company's profitability [1][8] Company Overview - China National Airlines was established in October 2002 through the merger of China International Airlines, China Aviation Corporation, and China Southwest Airlines, and it went public in Hong Kong and London in December 2004, followed by a listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2006 [6] - The company's main business is air passenger services, which typically accounts for nearly 90% of total revenue, projected to be 91% in 2024 [6] - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach CNY 166.699 billion, representing an 18.14% year-on-year growth, with a gross profit margin of 5.11% [6] Industry Performance - Over the past 15 years, the air passenger transport volume has increased by 172.8%, with domestic passenger transport volume expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.86%, marking a historical high [7][8] - The cargo and mail transport volume is projected to reach 8.983 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.15% [7] - The commercial aviation market in China is dominated by three major airlines: China National Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, which together accounted for 62.64% of total transport turnover in 2024 [7] Key Factors Influencing Performance - Aircraft supply is constrained due to the "step-down" growth trend of China's civil aviation fleet and disruptions in global supply chains affecting aircraft manufacturers' order fulfillment [8] - Travel demand is expected to rise as per capita flight frequency in China has room for improvement compared to developed countries, alongside a steady increase in GDP and a recovering tourism market [8] - Oil prices and exchange rates are critical factors affecting airline profitability, with the average price of aviation kerosene at USD 86.01 per barrel in the first ten months of 2025, down 10.90% year-on-year [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for China National Airlines from 2025 to 2027 are CNY 174.715 billion, CNY 188.020 billion, and CNY 205.245 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 7.6%, and 9.2% respectively [9] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is CNY 1.561 billion, CNY 6.503 billion, and CNY 10.265 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 0.09, CNY 0.37, and CNY 0.59 [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the improvement of the Black-Litterman (BL) model through the integration of nested cycle theory, which enhances the Sharpe ratio and win rate of asset portfolios, recommending an increase in A-shares and US Treasuries while gradually reducing US stock positions for 2026 [2][3][10]. Group 1: BL Model Overview - The BL model combines market implied equilibrium returns with investor subjective views weighted by confidence levels, resulting in more robust expected returns for asset allocation [8][10]. - The model addresses the high sensitivity of traditional mean-variance models to parameters and incorporates subjective investor views, making it more practical [10][11]. Group 2: Impact of Nested Cycle Theory - The improvement of the BL model is primarily based on subjective views derived from nested cycle theory, which assesses the performance of major asset classes under different cycle phases [10][11]. - The model outputs significantly enhance the Sharpe ratio of portfolios, allowing for better risk-adjusted returns [10][12]. Group 3: Asset Class Outlook for 2026 - The report forecasts a gradual shift to a de-stocking phase for major economies in 2026, suggesting an increase in allocations to A-shares and US Treasuries while reducing US stock positions [2][3][10]. - The model's asset return predictions will be based on historical average data from the transition from passive to active de-stocking phases [25][26]. Group 4: Performance of Asset Classes - Historical data indicates that during the passive de-stocking phase, equities outperform other asset classes with an average annual return of 27.74% and a win rate of 60% [17][18]. - In the active re-stocking phase, equities and commodities show strong performance, with equities achieving an average return of 40.01% and a win rate of 83% [17][18]. - Bonds perform best during the active de-stocking and passive re-stocking phases, with average returns of 10.28% and 3.61%, respectively [17][18]. Group 5: Model Implementation Steps - The BL model involves several steps: calculating prior expected returns, inputting subjective views, calculating posterior expected returns, and optimizing the asset allocation [21][22][23]. - The model's implementation requires historical return data and subjective forecasts from investment managers, with constraints on asset allocation ratios [30][31].