电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 2 月 11 日 强于大市 AI 算力材料行业更新 算力市场供不应求，电子布涨价趋势确立 海外云服务厂商大幅提高资本开支，算力材料市场亦有望深度受益。传统电 子布产能向低介电电子布产能切换的过程中引发供需错配，传统电子布和低 介电电子布价格有望迎来普涨。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 ◼ 我们看好算力市场资本开支持续推动技术迭代和需求增长，算力材料市 场亦有望深度受益。在传统电子布产能向低介电电子产能切换的关键节 点，市场供给和需求错配，传统电子布和低介电电子价格均有望上涨。建 议关注中材科技、国际复材、宏和科技、菲利华。 评级面临的主要风险 ◼ AI 市场需求过热引发行业泡沫。远期供给端产能过剩引发价格下滑。技 术变革导致原有产品淘汰。 相关研究报告 《存储行业深度报告》20260123 《2026 年 CES 英伟达演讲》20260107 《存储行业点评》20260105 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子 证券分析师：苏凌瑶 lingyao.su@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080003 证券 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 2 月 11 日 2025 年四季度货币政策执 行报告学习体会 把 " 促进经济稳定增长 " 写进货币政策的 KPI 2026 年的重点之一是"十五五"开局，重点之二是做好"五篇大文章"，重点之三是经济稳定增长， 重点之四是做强国内大循环。 相关研究报告 《策略点评》20260209 《策略周报》20260208 《中银量化大类资产跟踪》20260208 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 ◼ 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告内容，较三季度变化之处主要在于： ◼ 一是在内外部环境方面，三季度的表述是"外部不稳定不确定性因素较多，国际经济贸易秩 序遇到严峻挑战"，四季度的表述更进一步，表示"外部环境变化影响加深"和"贸易壁垒增 多"，对全球经济 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The traditional residential development sector is contracting, while commercial real estate is entering a policy-driven growth phase, with a focus on new consumption scenarios starting from 2024 [1][8] - The shift from traditional commercial spaces to immersive experience-driven scenarios is essential to meet the diverse needs of modern consumers [1][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating "scene" and "consumption" to create unique consumer experiences, enhancing customer retention and engagement [1][10] Summary by Sections 1. Current State of Commercial Real Estate - The commercial real estate sector has entered a "stock era," with the number of new openings in 2025 reaching a ten-year low, with 369 new projects and a total area of approximately 27.41 million square meters, down 24% and 25% year-on-year respectively [15][19] - High vacancy rates and declining rents are significant challenges, with 2025 seeing a 20% share of new openings being stock renovation projects [14][15] - New market entrants include outlet malls and themed commercial spaces, which are becoming differentiated "new scenes" [14][15] 2. New Consumption Scenarios - The core of new scenarios lies in transitioning from merely providing sales spaces to creating emotionally resonant immersive experiences [1][10] - The rise of new consumption brands is reshaping the operational strategies of commercial real estate, focusing on customer flow and experience rather than just transactions [1][10] - Non-standard commercial projects, characterized by small-scale and open street designs, are gaining traction, with a 18.7% increase in foot traffic compared to traditional shopping centers [1][10] 3. Differentiated Commercial Spaces - The report categorizes non-standard commercial spaces into three types: fashion innovation, retro innovation, and ecological innovation, each targeting different consumer emotional needs [1][10] - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu are leading in the development of non-standard commercial projects, with a significant focus on cultural and experiential elements [1][10] 4. Recommendations for Developers and Operators - Developers and operators are encouraged to innovate by creating differentiated offerings that resonate with specific consumer segments, emphasizing cultural integration and social spaces [1][10] - The report suggests that the focus should shift from traditional metrics like rental income to new indicators such as customer dwell time and engagement in experiential activities [1][10] - The commercial real estate sector is expected to benefit from favorable policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with opportunities for high-quality assets to thrive [1][10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant year-on-year growth due to a low base from the previous year, particularly during the Spring Festival period, but there is a month-on-month decline in transactions [1][6] - The Shanghai pilot program for purchasing second-hand homes for rental housing is expected to positively influence market expectations and confidence if implemented effectively [2][6] - The new housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year growth rate [6][17] - The inventory of new homes is decreasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [6][46] Summary by Sections New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 17,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 225.1% [18][19] - The new housing transaction area was 163.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 9.6% and a year-on-year increase of 203.0% [18][27] - The transaction volume and area for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed varying month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates [20][21][22] Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 174.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 349.7% [6][19] - The month-on-month decline in transaction volume for second-hand homes is more pronounced in first-tier cities compared to second and third/fourth-tier cities [6][19] Inventory and De-stocking Cycle - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 11,235 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [46][47] - The de-stocking cycle for new homes is 17.4 months, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase [46][47] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 1,188.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 74.1% and a year-on-year increase of 582.1% [6][14] - The average land price per square meter decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a cooling in land prices [6][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, those that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [7][6]

Group 1: AI Applications and Seedance 2.0 - The launch of Seedance 2.0 by ByteDance is expected to catalyze a rebound in AI applications, as market sentiment is currently at a low point [6][7] - Seedance 2.0 significantly enhances video generation capabilities, addressing key pain points in controllability, coherence, expressiveness, and production thresholds in the AI video generation field [7][10] - The model allows users to provide multiple inputs (up to 9 images, 3 videos, and 3 audio segments) to specify video generation effects, which can maintain consistency across multiple shots and enable complete narrative segments [10][11] - The improved usability rate of videos generated by Seedance 2.0 is projected to reach 90%, a significant increase from the previous industry average of about 20%, which could drastically lower production costs [10][11] Group 2: Animation Industry Development - The advancements brought by Seedance 2.0 are anticipated to accelerate the development of the AI animation market, with production costs and technical barriers significantly reduced [9][11] - The user base for domestic animation dramas is expected to grow from approximately 120 million in 2025 to 280 million in 2026, indicating a robust market potential [11] - The release of Seedance 2.0 is likely to enhance the production quality and efficiency of animation dramas, leading to a rapid industry expansion [11] Group 3: Computer Industry Breakthroughs - Significant breakthroughs in the technology sector include the launch of the world's first brain-machine acupuncture rehabilitation equipment, marking a substantial advancement in medical applications of brain-machine interfaces [13][14] - Shanghai has prioritized brain-machine interfaces and semiconductors in its future industrial planning, providing policy support for technological commercialization [15] - The University of Science and Technology of China has achieved major breakthroughs in quantum networking, laying the groundwork for long-distance quantum communication [16] Group 4: Autonomous Driving Developments - Waymo has completed a $16 billion financing round, becoming the largest single financing in the autonomous driving sector in recent years, with plans to expand services to over 20 cities [17] - The company reported a more than twofold increase in order volume year-on-year, with cumulative orders exceeding 20 million [17] - The financing is expected to propel the autonomous driving industry from testing to large-scale commercial applications [17] Group 5: Social Services Sector Insights - The social services sector experienced a decline of 3.44% in the first two trading weeks of 2026, ranking 24th among 31 industries [20][21] - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday, lasting 9 days, is expected to boost travel demand significantly, with an estimated 9.5 billion people expected to travel, setting a historical record [22][23] - Companies in the travel and tourism sector are anticipated to benefit from the concentrated release of travel demand during the holiday period [23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Insights - The launch of the AI video generation model Seedance 2.0 by ByteDance is expected to significantly accelerate the development of the AI animation industry. The model's capabilities have been greatly enhanced, allowing for a transition from "generating a scene" to "completing a work" [2][3]. - Seedance 2.0 offers users near "director-level" precision in video generation, including features like self-storyboarding, multi-modal references, audio-visual synchronization, and multi-shot narrative capabilities. Users can specify video generation effects using up to 9 images, 3 videos, and 3 audio segments [2][3]. - The model's improved video usability rate is projected to reach 90% for generating 15-second videos, a significant increase from the previous industry average of around 20%. This enhancement is expected to lower production costs dramatically, with the cost of a 90-minute video project potentially decreasing from over 10,000 yuan to around 2,000 yuan [2][3]. - The AI technology represented by Seedance 2.0 is likely to push the animation industry into a phase of scaled development. Traditional animation often requires years of refinement and substantial financial investment, while the lightweight production of short video products can significantly reduce creation time and lower barriers to entry. The domestic animation user base is projected to grow from approximately 120 million in 2025 to 280 million in 2026 [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies to focus on include: - AI Applications: Decai Co., Zhaochi Co., Zhongwen Online, and Zhangyue Technology - AI Infrastructure: Dongyangguang, Runze Technology, and Guanghuan New Network - AI Chips: Cambricon and Haiguang Information [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [33]. Core Insights - Significant breakthroughs in brain-computer interface and quantum communication technologies are expected to accelerate the development of related industrial chains, with a focus on companies such as Jiayuan Technology, iFlytek, Wanda Information, Anheng Information, and Guodun Quantum [4][2]. - The first brain-controlled acupuncture rehabilitation equipment has been successfully implemented, marking a substantial advancement in the medical application of brain-computer interfaces [2][13]. - Shanghai has identified brain-computer interfaces and semiconductors as key future industries, providing strong policy support for their development [15][16]. - The University of Science and Technology of China has achieved major breakthroughs in quantum networking, paving the way for practical quantum communication [17][19]. - Waymo has completed a significant financing round of $16 billion, indicating a new phase of development in the autonomous driving industry [20][21]. Summary by Sections Brain-Computer Interface - The first brain-controlled acupuncture rehabilitation platform, "Shengong-Hua Tuo," has been launched, integrating advanced brain-computer interface technology with traditional acupuncture for personalized treatment [13][14]. - This technology has been validated through space experiments, enhancing its reliability and potential for widespread clinical application [14]. Quantum Communication - The University of Science and Technology of China has made two critical advancements in quantum networking, addressing long-standing challenges in the field and significantly extending the distance for quantum key distribution [17][19]. - These breakthroughs position China as a leader in quantum communication, with implications for national security and information protection [19]. Autonomous Driving - Waymo's recent financing of $16 billion has raised its post-money valuation to $126 billion, reflecting strong growth in its business operations [20]. - The company plans to expand its services to over 20 cities globally, indicating a shift from technology validation to large-scale commercial operations in the autonomous driving sector [21].

Investment Rating - Kuaishou Technology is rated as BUY with a target price of HK$80.00 [6][7][8] - WeRide Inc. is also rated as BUY with a target price of US$13.00 for ADR and HK$34.00 for its Hong Kong shares [9][10][13] Core Insights - Kuaishou Technology is expected to achieve a 10% year-on-year revenue growth in 4Q25, with an adjusted net profit of RMB5.4 billion [6][8] - Despite short-term pressures from stricter tax scrutiny and intense competition, Kuaishou's long-term monetization potential is bolstered by its AI initiatives and ecosystem integrations [6][7][8] - WeRide Inc. anticipates a significant revenue increase of over 70% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q25, driven by growth in its Robotaxi and Robobus segments [9][10][13] - The company aims to double its Robotaxi fleet to over 2,000 units by the end of 2026, with a focus on key markets in China and international expansion in the Middle East [10][11][13] Summary by Sections Kuaishou Technology - The company is projected to have a revenue increase of 10% year-on-year for 4Q25, with an adjusted net profit of RMB5.4 billion [6][8] - Long-term monetization potential is supported by AI developments and integration with core business ecosystems [6][7][8] WeRide Inc. - Expected revenue for 4Q25 is projected to be between RMB290 million and RMB300 million, with a full-year revenue forecast of RMB660 million to RMB670 million [9][10][13] - The gross margin is anticipated to remain above 30%, although increased R&D spending may impact net profits [9][10][13] - The company plans to expand its Robotaxi fleet significantly, with a strategic focus on both domestic and international markets [10][11][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [50]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday, lasting 9 days, is expected to significantly boost travel demand, leading to high market activity in the travel and tourism sector [4][43]. - The social service sector experienced a decline of 3.44% in the past two trading weeks, ranking 24th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification [13][21]. - The travel market is anticipated to reach a historical peak with an estimated 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, driven by various factors including extended holiday periods and increased domestic travel [33][38]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social service sector's performance was below the market average, with a 3.44% decline compared to a 1.71% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [13][21]. - The hotel and catering sub-sector saw a slight increase of 0.64%, while other sub-sectors like education and professional services experienced declines of 6.26% and 5.25%, respectively [17][20]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth potential in the travel chain and related industries include Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Shares, among others [4][43]. - Hotel brands such as Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share [4][43]. - The recovery of cross-border travel is likely to boost airport duty-free sales, with recommendations to focus on China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [4][43]. Company Dynamics & Announcements - Notable company announcements include China Travel Service forecasting a revenue of 11.339 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 13.88% year-on-year increase, while other companies like Zhongxin Tourism and Fengshang Culture are expecting significant declines in net profits [37][38]. - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan saw a 44.8% year-on-year increase in January 2026, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [30][31]. Travel Data Tracking - The domestic travel market shows positive trends, with a significant increase in hotel bookings and flight reservations during the Spring Festival period [30][31]. - The international flight volume has recovered to 85.59% of the 2019 levels, indicating a steady recovery in the travel sector [21][38].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the launch of the "Seedance 2.0" video model by ByteDance's Dream AI is expected to catalyze a rebound in AI applications, particularly in the video generation sector, as market sentiment has reached a low point [2][4][6] - The Seedance 2.0 model addresses key pain points in AI video generation, including controllability, coherence, expressiveness, and production barriers, by introducing multi-modal references and efficient creative capabilities [4][5][6] Summary by Sections Seedance 2.0 Features - Seedance 2.0 supports multi-modal references, allowing users to input video, images, audio, and text simultaneously, significantly enhancing the controllability of generated videos [4][5] - The model maintains consistency across multiple shots, ensuring character and scene coherence, which enhances narrative continuity and viewer immersion [5] - It achieves native audio-video synchronization, generating matching sound effects and music while ensuring lip-sync and emotional alignment, thus improving the expressiveness of virtual characters [6] - The model can automatically plan shots and camera movements based on user descriptions, simplifying the video creation process and enhancing the cinematic quality of the output [6] Market Implications - The advancements in Seedance 2.0 are expected to lower the costs and technical barriers for generating AI-driven content, particularly in the realm of AI comics, while improving production efficiency [6] - The report suggests that the AI multi-modal industry chain, including AI applications, cloud services, storage, and computing power, presents potential investment opportunities as the market sentiment is poised for a rebound following a period of negative factors [2][6]