Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea, Hisense, and Robam, while downgrading XGimi to "Sell" and upgrading Man Wah to "Neutral" [8][9][10][27][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the domestic trade-in policy and overseas demand are critical factors influencing revenue and profit growth for durable consumer goods companies in 2025. It predicts an 8% year-on-year increase in appliance sales, driven by a subsidy scale of RMB 100-120 billion and a price demand elasticity of approximately 1.1 [11][12][43]. - The white goods sector, particularly air conditioning, is expected to benefit significantly from the trade-in policy, with increased subsidies and a higher overseas business share [2][16]. - The report highlights that while the growth rate for exports may moderate, emerging markets are expected to outperform developed markets, with a focus on companies with limited exposure to the US market [14][65]. Summary by Sections Trade-in Program Impact - The trade-in program is projected to expand in 2025, including more product categories and increased subsidy limits, which will likely enhance demand for appliances [44][45]. - The report anticipates that categories with high penetration potential, such as robotic vacuum cleaners and dishwashers, will lead growth in 2025, with expected growth rates exceeding 10% [11][45]. Company-Specific Insights - **Midea**: Expected to achieve 9% revenue growth and 13% profit growth in 2025, benefiting from its leading position in the domestic market and overseas expansion [8][23]. - **Hisense**: Anticipated to grow revenue and profits by 9% and 14% respectively, supported by improved retail demand and export resilience [9][25]. - **Robam**: Projected to see an 8% revenue increase and a 12% profit increase, driven by recovery in retail demand and government subsidies [10][26]. - **XGimi**: Downgraded to "Sell" due to challenges in its core consumer projector business and high valuation relative to fundamentals [27][28]. - **Man Wah**: Upgraded to "Neutral" as the stock shows limited downside potential and may benefit from the trade-in program [30][31]. Earnings and Target Price Revisions - The report revises earnings forecasts for covered companies down by 4% for 2024-2026, reflecting a more conservative outlook on demand and margins [32][151]. - Target prices for Midea and Hisense remain unchanged, while XGimi's target price is adjusted to reflect its downgraded rating [97][107][117]. Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The average dividend payout ratio for the coverage companies is expected to increase to 53% in 2024, with white goods companies showing the highest yields [88][89]. - The report notes that most companies are trading at or below historical medians, with potential for re-rating among those with improving fundamentals [92][93].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Gigadevice (603986 SS) with a 12-month target price of RMB 136, based on a 37x 2026E P/E ratio [10][12] Core Views - Gigadevice is expected to enter a new growth cycle driven by its expansion into niche DRAM products, with strong EPS growth anticipated as its market share in China's niche DRAM market increases [12] - The company's NOR Flash and MCU businesses are expected to remain stable and show moderate recovery in 2024-25 [12] - The current valuation of Gigadevice is below historical levels, making it attractive [12] 2024 Q4 Performance Outlook - Revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to be RMB 1 883 million, down 8% QoQ but up 38% YoY [1][4] - Gross margin is projected to decline to 39% in Q4 2024, down from 42% in Q3 2024, due to normalized product mix and continued DRAM price pressure [1][2] - Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 276 million, down 12% QoQ but a significant improvement from a loss in the same period last year [1][4] 2025 Q1 Performance Outlook - Revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to remain flat QoQ at RMB 1 866 million, reflecting the typical seasonal weakness in Q1 [2][3] - Net profit is projected to increase slightly by 6% QoQ to RMB 292 million [3][4] DRAM Business Outlook - The DRAM market is expected to remain oversupplied in H1 2025, with a recovery in supply-demand balance anticipated in H2 2025 [6] - Gigadevice's niche DRAM growth will be driven by product expansion, including the mass production of 8Gb DDR4 products in 2025, and increased order share from domestic customers [6] AI Opportunities - The growth of edge AI is expected to benefit Gigadevice's products, including increased NOR Flash chip adoption in AI PCs and AI headphones, and strong growth in AI glasses [7] - The company is exploring customized storage solutions, which could also benefit from edge AI development in areas like AI phones and robotics [7] Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024-27 have been revised downward by 0%-5%, with gross margin forecasts reduced by up to 3 percentage points, and net profit forecasts lowered by 3%-23% [7][8] - The 2026E revenue is now projected at RMB 11 628 million, with a gross margin of 39 4% and net income of RMB 2 459 million [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry, but it provides insights into market trends and performance metrics that could inform investment decisions. Core Insights - The report highlights a weakening trend in first-hand property sales, with a week-on-week decrease of 20%, while second-hand property sales have shown improvement with a 19% increase [6][19]. - The report indicates that the overall sales area for first-hand properties is down 22% compared to the previous period, while second-hand properties are up 19% [2][19]. - The report notes that the inventory level remains stable, with a month supply of 25.5 months, consistent with the end of 2024 [49]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - First-hand property sales area decreased by 20% month-on-month but increased by 8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities and the Yangtze River Delta performing better [6]. - Second-hand property transactions increased by 20% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year, indicating a shift in market sentiment [38]. - The report mentions that the average sales area for first-hand properties in January is down 21% month-on-month but up 22% year-on-year [6]. Market Indicators - The Central Government has allowed local governments to issue special bonds to recover idle land and completed inventory, with expected policy effects to gradually release in 2025 [1]. - The report tracks the Central China Real Estate Index, which shows a decrease of 1 percentage point in the agent confidence index, while the seller confidence index remains stable [12][14]. Construction and Inventory - The report predicts a year-on-year decline of approximately 30% in construction area for December 2024, with a forecasted decline of 13% for the entire year [54]. - The inventory levels across first, second, and third-tier cities show slight fluctuations but remain consistent with the end of 2024 levels [49][51]. Valuation Insights - The report indicates that the current price-to-book ratio for covered developers is at a low point in the down cycle, with an average discount of 45% for overseas-listed developers and 27% for mainland-listed developers compared to expected net asset values [61][64].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Country Garden Services has been downgraded to "Sell" due to slower-than-peer business recovery prospects [3] - Ratings for China Resources Mixc Life, Greentown Service, China Overseas Property, and Poly Property are maintained at "Buy" due to their robust and predictable free cash flow generation and attractive valuations [3] Core Insights - The property management (PM) industry is expected to face continued growth challenges until 2027 due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, but long-term structural investment themes remain intact [1][9] - The focus on efficiency gains, high-quality expansion, and risk control among PM companies is anticipated to positively impact profit margins and cash flow in the coming years [1][9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize, with government policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving liquidity benefiting community value-added services (VAS) [1][16] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The PM industry is maturing with a greater emphasis on quality growth and risk control, which is expected to enhance margins and cash flow [9][10] - The property downturn will continue to be a drag on PM growth until 2027, but improvements in consumption and government liquidity are expected to support VAS revenue [9][24] Financial Projections - Earnings forecasts for PM companies have been adjusted, with an average expected revenue growth of 6% and profit growth of 8% from 2024 to 2027 [2][29] - Free cash flow (FCF) generation is projected to improve, with net cash flow ratios expected to rise from 0.6x in 2024 to 1.2x in 2027 [2][30] Valuation Framework - A new valuation framework focusing on FCF generation has been introduced, applying a long-term multiple of 9x for 2027 FCF, with target prices adjusted by -15% to +15% [2][47] - The average target price for coverage PM companies implies a 9x 2025E P/E ratio, reflecting an 8% EPS CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sanhua and Best Precision, while upgrading the rating for Greentec Harmonics and Moons' Electric from "Sell" to "Neutral" [2][16] Core Insights - The report extends the valuation benchmark year to 2030 due to increased long-term visibility in the humanoid robotics industry, resulting in target price increases of 34% to 82% for four humanoid robotics component stocks [1][17] - The report highlights several upcoming catalysts, including Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings release and the potential launch of Optimus Gen3, as well as Nvidia's GTC conference and the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in China [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The humanoid robotics industry is expected to benefit from a long-term structural trend, with significant growth potential becoming clearer [1][17] - Tesla has ambitious shipment targets for its Optimus robot, aiming for thousands of units in 2025, increasing to 50,000-100,000 units by 2027 [3][11] Company Performance - Sanhua, Best Precision, Greentec Harmonics, and Moons' Electric are projected to achieve humanoid robotics business revenues of RMB 29.187 billion, RMB 1.769 billion, RMB 3.010 billion, and RMB 3.002 billion respectively by 2027, representing significant portions of their total revenues [6][11] - Greentec Harmonics is expected to maintain a revenue and net profit CAGR of 31% and 44% respectively from 2024 to 2030, driven by new customer penetration and improved operational leverage [16] Valuation Analysis - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, indicating substantial upside potential for stocks in the humanoid robotics supply chain, with implied valuations suggesting significant increases based on various shipment scenarios [11][13] - The target price for Sanhua is set at RMB 35.2, Best Precision at RMB 29.7, LeaderDrive at RMB 111.3, and Moons' Electric at RMB 49.4, reflecting the extended valuation horizon [11][17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to specific developers including China Overseas Development (688.HK), China Resources Land (1109.HK), Greentown China (3900.HK), and Longfor Group (960.HK) [2] Core Insights - The real estate market in China is expected to see a positive growth in the second-hand housing market in Q1 2025, despite a seasonal slowdown typically observed during this period [1][9] - The report highlights that the sales area for new homes, land sales, and construction starts are likely to continue their year-on-year decline, while the second-hand market is projected to outperform new home sales [9][21] - The anticipated policy measures aimed at stimulating the market include urban renewal projects and financial support for housing completion, which are expected to bolster market confidence [5][7] Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance - Real estate sales area exceeded expectations in Q4 2024, with a notable recovery in average housing prices in first-tier and some second-tier cities [1][21] - Shenzhen recorded the highest month-on-month price increase since November 2024 [1] Q1 2025 Outlook - The report forecasts a year-on-year increase in sales area and overall second-hand housing market performance across 75 cities, while the first-hand housing market is expected to decline [1][9] - March 2025 is identified as a critical month for monitoring developers' liquidity, coinciding with significant bond repayment pressures [1][42] Policy Measures - New policies introduced by the government focus on urban renewal and ensuring housing delivery, with plans to expand urban village redevelopment from 35 to over 300 cities [5][7] - Anticipated monetary easing measures, including a potential 50 basis point reduction in reserve requirements, may lead to lower mortgage rates [5][7] Developer Performance - The report indicates that the stock prices of covered developers are currently at the lower end of their expected range, influenced by the stabilization of housing prices and the potential for further policy support [2][4] - Contract sales for developers are projected to decline by a single-digit percentage year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting a seasonal slowdown and reduced available inventory [15][17]

CPI Forecast - Core CPI is expected to rise 0.25% MoM in December, with a YoY increase of 3.27%[1][2] - Headline CPI is projected to increase 0.40% MoM, driven by food prices rising 0.35% and energy prices surging 2.3%[1][2] - Core services CPI (excluding rent and OER) is forecasted to rise 0.21%, while core PCE is expected to increase 0.18%[1][2] Key CPI Components - Used car prices are expected to rise 1.0% MoM, reflecting auction price increases[1][3] - Airline fares are projected to increase 1.0% MoM due to seasonal factors[1][7] - Auto insurance prices are forecasted to accelerate slightly, rising 0.3% MoM[1][10] Future Inflation Outlook - Core CPI and core PCE are expected to reach 2.7% and 2.4% YoY, respectively, by December 2025[1][15] - Downward pressure on inflation is anticipated from rebalancing in auto, rent, and labor markets, offset by tariff increases[1][15] Housing and Other CPI Trends - Owners' equivalent rent is expected to rise 0.30% MoM, while rent of primary residence is forecasted to increase 0.25%[13] - Communication prices are expected to stabilize after a 1.0% decline in November[13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a 12-month target price of RMB 23.9, indicating a downside potential of 35.7% from the current price of RMB 37.16 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic gas sensing technology sector, focusing on the development of gas and particulate sensors used in various applications such as air quality control, industrial process monitoring, and automotive emissions monitoring [2]. - Despite stable orders from the automotive sector, the company faces multiple challenges, including weak demand in indoor air quality sensors due to the real estate market, a decline in the medical gas sensor business due to anti-corruption measures, and increasing costs in sales management and R&D [2][3]. - Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2023 to 2030, driven by robust growth in automotive sensors and safety monitoring sensors, while indoor air quality and medical health applications may hinder overall performance [3]. Summary by Sections Current Outlook - The company is expanding its market presence in the automotive sector while maintaining a strong foothold in air quality and medical markets [2]. - Challenges include a shift towards lower-margin automotive sensors and rising operational costs impacting net profit margins [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth is projected at a CAGR of 16% from 2023 to 2030, with specific segments like automotive sensors expected to grow at 23% CAGR [3]. - Net profit is expected to grow at a slower pace of 14% CAGR due to product mix changes and high sales and R&D expenses [3]. - The target price is based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2025, with potential upside risks related to market awareness and policy support [3].

Core Insights - The Goldman Sachs economic team forecasts China's GDP growth to slow from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, primarily due to ongoing real estate deleveraging and escalating trade tensions with developed markets impacting exports. However, strong government policy measures are expected to alleviate these challenges and facilitate a shift from trade and investment-driven growth to domestic consumption-driven growth [2][11][17] - The MSCI China Index and CSI300 Index are projected to rise approximately 20% by the end of 2025, driven by expected earnings growth of 7% and 10% respectively, alongside reasonable price-to-earnings ratios of 11x and 14x. This baseline forecast assumes a 20% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the US and effective implementation of fiscal policies [2][6][11] - Despite a challenging start to the year, the risk/reward profile for Chinese equities remains attractive, leading to an overweight recommendation for both A-shares and H-shares [6][11][32] Market Overview - Short-term returns for A-shares and H-shares are expected to stabilize, with market sentiment and liquidity conditions likely improving by the end of Q1 2025 as tariff and policy clarity emerges [6][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of government consumption proxies, emerging market exporters, and new technology/infrastructure investments as key investment themes for 2025 [11][17][23] Investment Themes - Government consumption proxies are expected to benefit from a recovery in local government spending, particularly in sectors such as construction, transportation infrastructure, and healthcare [11][12][14] - Companies that export to emerging markets and those that benefit from RMB depreciation are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, as they may gain market share in stable or improving trade relationships [17][20][62] - Investments in "Little Giants," which are emerging companies supported by government policy, are recommended due to their alignment with national strategic objectives [23][27][63] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in consumer sectors, particularly online retail, media, and healthcare, while advising caution in sectors like autos and energy due to competitive pressures and market conditions [36][39][44] - The healthcare sector is expected to recover in 2025, with a projected growth rate of around 15% as regulatory pressures ease [40][41] - The banking sector is upgraded to market weight, anticipating stronger loan growth and sustained dividend payouts due to expected government support [49] Factor and Style Preferences - The report favors a blend of value and growth stocks, particularly those that exhibit strong cash returns through dividends and buybacks, as well as select small and mid-cap stocks that may offer alpha opportunities [52][55][56] - The analysis indicates that small caps may stabilize in performance relative to large caps, with a focus on thematic investments in "Little Giants" potentially generating excess returns [55][56]

Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com 高盛集团 Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com 高盛集团 2025年1月9日 | 8:58AM EST 美国经济日评: 12月份非农就业数据前瞻 Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com 高盛集团 Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com 高盛集团 David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com 高盛集团 Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com 高盛集团 Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com 高盛集团 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/re ...