M Idea Municipal Strategy | North America October 7, 2024 10:49 AM GMT Tactics This Week: Hardly a Hard Landing It's shaping up to be a glass-half-full October. Better-thanexpected credit data, moderating forward supply, and a continued pickup in flows all point to tighter spreads this month. That's why the '90s playbook stays front and center. Key Takeaways We forecast $28 billion of supply over the next 3 weeks ($24-32 billion range). Net odd lot demand has risen to $300mm+ per day, which should support s ...

October 7, 2024 09:53 AM GMT M Update Semiconductor Production Equipment | Japan | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

M Idea China Industrials | Asia Pacific October 7, 2024 08:00 PM GMT 3Q24 Preview - Construction Machinery We see 3Q sales in line with consensus and improved GPM for most companies, on solid overseas growth and narrower domestic declines, but remain cautious on the domestic cycle and see continued overseas destocking in 4Q. Individual company operations are key differentiators; OW Hengli and Dingli. 3Q24 preview - see revenue and NP largely in line with consensus : 3Q24 industry demand was led mainly by co ...

October 7, 2024 10:00 PM GMT M Foundation | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

North America Equity Research 07 October 2024 J P M O R G A N JPM Natural Gas Reservoir Examining 2025-26 Corporate Natural Gas Price FCF Break-Evens Excluding Hedge Impacts | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | ...

Investment Rating - The report provides an "In-Line" investment rating for the AI semiconductor industry, indicating a balanced outlook on the sector's performance. Core Insights - NVIDIA's Blackwell production revenue in 1Q25 is expected to surpass that of Hopper, driven by strong demand for its next-generation AI chip, with production volume projected to reach 750k-800k units, nearly tripling from 4Q24 [1][2] - The AI semiconductor supply chain is experiencing significant growth, with NVIDIA's revenue from Blackwell chips anticipated to contribute between US$5-10 billion in 4Q24 [1][2] - The introduction of new GPU dies and server racks, such as the B112 and GB300A, is set to enhance performance and meet increasing demand in the AI sector [3][4] Summary by Sections AI Supply Chain - The GPU testing supply chain is expected to see capacity utilization below 50% in October and November, increasing to over 60% in December [2] - NVIDIA's upcoming GPU die, B112, will enter production in 1H25, offering improved performance while utilizing TSMC's 4nm technology [3] AI Downstream Supply Chain - NVIDIA is likely to adopt sockets for its data center GPUs starting with Blackwell, which may positively impact suppliers like Lotes in the mid to long term [6] - Hon Hai reported a 34% month-over-month increase in September sales, driven by AI-related server shipments [6] AI Semiconductor Demand - The report forecasts nearly US$380 billion in cloud capex across 2024-2025, indicating strong investment capabilities among major cloud service providers [20] - Hyperscalers are expected to increase their AI server procurement, with a notable shift in capex allocation among key players like Microsoft and Amazon [21][23] AI Chip Vendor Insights - NVIDIA's AI chip consumption is projected to generate significant revenue, with the company expected to be the largest customer for HBM in 2024 [24][26] - The report highlights the competitive landscape among AI chip vendors, with NVIDIA's H100 and H200 chips leading in market share and performance metrics [35][36]

M Update Guangzhou Automobile Group | Asia Pacific October 7, 2024 10:06 AM GMT Thoughts on the share outperformance GAC-H rose 19% today (Oct 7), significantly outperforming the market (Hang Seng Index +1.6%) and H-share peers (DFM +6.8% and BAIC +11.8%). We believe this was driven mainly by: 1) potential short position coverage; and 2) expanded A/H share premium of 220% from previous trough of ~50% in 2018. Although we have not heard of any material fundamental changes at this point during the Chinese Nat ...

M Update Global Macro Strategy | Global October 7, 2024 04:00 AM GMT Global FX Positioning: Positioning Turns Long USD In the week ending Friday, October 4, options pricing data indicate that investors added long USD (DXY) and NOK (versus EUR) positions, and increased short NZD and EUR positions. In the futures market, investors reduced short AUD and increased long NZD positions, while they added short CHF and decreased long EUR positions in the week ending Tuesday, October 1. Overall, options data suggest ...

October 7, 2024 08:00 PM GMT China Industrials | Asia Pacific What's Changed Shenzhen Inovance Technology (300124.SZ) From To Price Target Rmb54.00 Rmb64.00 M Idea Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Sheng Zhong Equity Analyst Sheng.Zhong@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7821 Chelsea Wang Equity Analyst Jinlin.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1118 Serena Chen Research Associate Serena.Chen@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7107 3Q24 Preview - Automation and general equipment We expect most automation companies' 3Q earnings t ...

China Property Golden Week - What are property agents saying? Over the past few days, we noted there are various versions of "Golden Week sales" data being circulated online (which we cannot verify). As we wait for official data to come out (sales data which reflects the Golden Week should be published over the next few weeks), we consulted >10 property agents/sales managers across various cities. Undeniably, sentiment improved, and many projects in tier-1 cities noted a 50-100% improvement in enquiries/tra ...