Investment Rating - The investment rating for HG Tech is "Buy" with an updated 12-month target price of Rmb56, revised from Rmb53, based on a 22x 2026E P/E [1][2][14]. Core Insights - HG Tech pre-announced its 2Q net profit range of Rmb480 million to Rmb540 million, with a mid-point of Rmb510 million, representing a 52% year-over-year increase and exceeding expectations [1]. - The strong profit performance is expected to alleviate investor concerns regarding the profitability of optical transceivers, with key catalysts anticipated in the second half of 2025, including progress in penetrating US markets and domestic demand outlook [1][14]. - The company is positioned for robust long-term growth driven by the AI infrastructure cycle, overseas expansion, and new market penetration [1]. Revenue and Profit Estimates - Revenue estimates for 2025-2026 have been revised upward by 3% to 4.6%, leading to a net profit estimate increase of 4% to 8% [2]. - New revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb15,815 million, Rmb19,233 million, and Rmb22,971 million respectively, reflecting a 4.6% increase for 2025 and 2026, and a 3.0% increase for 2027 compared to previous estimates [6]. - Net income estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb1,830 million, Rmb2,579 million, and Rmb3,130 million respectively, with increases of 8%, 6%, and 4% compared to prior estimates [6]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - HG Tech's business segments include optical transceivers, sensors, telecom equipment, and laser tools, with a focus on high-end optical transceivers (800G and 400G modules) expected to drive margin improvement and net profit growth [14]. - The revenue mix for 2024 is projected to be 34% from laser tools, 3% from networking, and 63% from sensors, with shifts expected in 2025 and 2026 [13][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing attach ratio of optical transceivers, supporting better growth sustainability [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics with a 12-month price target of HK$13.33, indicating an upside potential of 106.0% from the current price of HK$6.47 [11]. Core Insights - The management is optimistic about the growth of autonomous driving (AD) and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in China, particularly with local car OEMs pushing for urban Navigate on Autopilot features in the mainstream price segment of Rmb150,000 (approximately US$21,000) [2][3]. - Horizon Robotics is focusing on product mix upgrades from ADAS to AD, which is expected to drive an increase in average selling price (ASP) due to enhanced computing power [3]. - The company is committed to increasing its R&D investments, particularly in developing integrated software-hardware solutions, which will allow it to charge software fees based on car shipments rather than project-based fees [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Outlook - The total addressable market (TAM) for AD and ADAS is growing, with management highlighting the competitive landscape among local car OEMs as a key driver for increased demand [2]. - The Journey 6 product is identified as a significant driver for shipment increases in the AD solutions segment [2]. 2. Product Development - The transition from ADAS products (e.g., Journey 2 and 3) to more advanced AD products (e.g., Journey 6) is expected to enhance ASP due to the substantial increase in computing power from 4-5 TOPS to 560 TOPS [3]. - Future plans include the development of a higher computing power J7 platform, estimated at around 2000 TOPS, to meet the growing demand for advanced features [3]. 3. R&D Commitment - Horizon Robotics is allocating more resources to R&D, particularly in cloud computing, to develop stronger algorithms and enhance its software-hardware integration [7]. - The company aims to penetrate the majority of car OEMs in China that lack in-house algorithms for advanced ADAS/AD features [7]. 4. Strategic Partnerships - The joint venture with Volkswagen, Carizon, is expected to yield its first car model by the end of 2025, with management anticipating a significant share of Volkswagen's car models in the China market [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lingyi, with a 12-month price target of Rmb11.40, indicating an upside potential of 28.1% from the current price of Rmb8.90 [18][13]. Core Insights - Lingyi's revenues are expected to grow by 23% year-over-year in 2Q25, reaching Rmb11.5 billion, driven by new project contributions and improved seasonality in the second half of 2025 [1][3]. - The gross margin (GM) is projected to improve to 15.7% in 2Q25, up from 15.2% in 1Q25, although still below the 2022/2023 levels of 20.7% and 19.9% respectively [1][3]. - Lingyi's diversification into foldable phones, servers, and AI/AR glasses components is expected to increase revenue contributions to 14% and 18% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [1][2]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for 2025 remain unchanged at Rmb54.5 billion, with net income expected to grow by 43% year-over-year [3][9]. - Earnings revisions indicate a decrease in net income estimates by 11% for 2025, primarily due to lower GM from the automotive and server segments [3][7]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% in revenues from 2025 to 2027 [3][9]. Financial Metrics - The report projects gross margins to expand from 15.8% in 2024 to 16.6% and 18.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3][11]. - Operating profit margins (OPM) are expected to improve from 6.0% in 2025 to 8.1% in 2027 [3][11]. - The net margin is forecasted to increase to 4.6% and 5.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3][11]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Lingyi is expanding its business in foldable phones, servers, robotics, and AI/AR glasses components to reduce concentration risk and capture a larger market share [2][3]. - The company has established partnerships to provide comprehensive manufacturing solutions, which are expected to lower the bill of materials (BOM) costs for clients [2][3]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb11.4 is based on a target P/E multiple of 21.2x 2026E EPS, reflecting a positive correlation between P/E and EPS growth among peers [11][17]. - Lingyi is currently trading at a P/E of 17x for 2026E, which is considered attractive [13][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Yonyou with a 12-month target price of Rmb13.37, indicating a potential upside of 2.1% from the current price of Rmb13.09 [9][8]. Core Insights - Yonyou management anticipates a sequential recovery in client spending, particularly from mid to large-scale clients, following a challenging first quarter where revenues declined by 21% year-over-year [1][2]. - The company is focusing on AI-driven solutions to enhance internal efficiency and client decision-making, with new AI agents under development to improve productivity [1][3]. - The shift to a subscription model is expected to lower clients' total costs, which may support revenue recovery in the upcoming quarters [2][1]. Summary by Sections 1. Enterprise Clients' IT Spending Outlook - Despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges, there remains a demand for enterprise cloud platforms and new AI features among clients, who are seeking solutions with a better price-to-performance ratio [2]. - Yonyou's revenues in the first quarter of 2025 were down 21% year-over-year, but management expects improvement in the second quarter, supported by order recovery and a 25% year-over-year increase in contract liabilities to Rmb2.3 billion [2][1]. 2. Gen-AI and AI Agent Monetization - Yonyou has initiated AI monetization, charging clients Rmb100,000 or more per year for modular services, and is offering customized solutions based on in-house data for large-scale clients [3]. - The introduction of AI Copilot and AI Agent tools aims to assist management in decision-making and reduce time spent on repetitive tasks, thereby enhancing overall efficiency [3]. 3. Headcount Outlook and Efficiency Improvement - The total number of employees at Yonyou decreased from approximately 23,000 at the end of 2024 to around 21,000 by the end of the first quarter of 2025, with expectations for headcount to remain stable [4]. - Management is focused on improving revenue per employee and leveraging AI tools for specific tasks, which is anticipated to enhance profitability in the long term [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting significant liquidity improvements and potential for valuation recovery, particularly in the small and mid-cap sectors [1][5][18]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a notable increase in liquidity, primarily due to the rising proportion of new economy companies and increased participation from southbound funds and retail investors, which now account for approximately 40% of the market [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and brokerage sectors will benefit from high market activity and robust earnings support, with IPO financing expected to reach HKD 107 billion in the first half of 2025, a sevenfold increase year-on-year [1][9]. - The potential return of Chinese concept stocks to the Hong Kong market could significantly enhance trading volume and total market capitalization, with estimates suggesting an increase of 17% to 20% [12][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain active in the second half of 2025, with an increase in the number of listings and trading volume, particularly in the fourth quarter [2][9]. - The market's appeal for new economy assets has been bolstered by reforms at the HKEX and geopolitical factors [2][18]. Liquidity Improvement - The improvement in liquidity is attributed to both asset and funding sides, with a notable increase in the proportion of new economy companies enhancing tradability [3][5]. - The report emphasizes that improved liquidity has led to a revaluation of companies, particularly benefiting small and mid-cap stocks [5][18]. Impact of New Economy Companies - New economy companies have significantly influenced the market, with their market capitalization increasing from 27% in 2015 to over 51% by the end of 2024, and their trading volume now exceeding 70% [16][17]. - These companies are expected to drive higher turnover rates and valuations compared to traditional sectors [17]. Future Growth Potential - The report outlines that the future growth of the Hong Kong stock market will be supported by the influx of new assets and the revaluation of existing companies, driven by domestic enterprises seeking overseas financing and foreign companies returning to avoid geopolitical risks [18][19]. - The HKEX is projected to see substantial profit growth, with estimates suggesting a 31% year-on-year increase in Q2 earnings, reaching HKD 15.4 billion for the year [4][22]. Brokerage Sector Outlook - Key Chinese brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan are expected to benefit significantly from the development of the Hong Kong market due to their strong overseas revenue and competitive edge [4][25]. - The overall outlook for the Chinese brokerage industry is positive, with expected profit growth of nearly 20% for the year [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hyperstrong with a 12-month target price of Rmb 106 per share, indicating an upside potential of 17.9% from the current price of Rmb 89.88 [15][10][3] Core Insights - The Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) is emerging as a critical solution for managing electricity grid stability during summer heatwaves in China, with record peak loads reaching 1,465 GW, an 11% year-over-year increase [1] - Hyperstrong is identified as a key beneficiary of the growing BESS demand, with projected volume growth rates of 65% in 2025, 43% in 2026, and 36% in 2027, leading to an estimated 38% EPS CAGR from 2024 to 2027 [3][13] - The cumulative tendering volume for BESS in China reached approximately 170 GWh in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 121% year-over-year increase, surpassing previous growth expectations [2][8] Summary by Sections BESS Demand and Market Trends - The demand for BESS continues to exceed expectations, with June 2025 tendering volume in China reaching 56.7 GWh, a 292% year-over-year increase [2][9] - The report notes a significant time lag of 4-8 months between tendering and installation, alleviating concerns regarding the exit of mandatory ESS installation policies [2] Company Positioning and Financial Projections - Hyperstrong is positioned as a leading BESS supplier in China, holding approximately 12% market share in 2024, with expectations of a decline to 6% by 2030 due to increased competition [13][3] - The report forecasts a 20% EPS growth from 2024 to 2030, supported by a 33% volume growth [3][13] Catalysts for Growth - Key near-term catalysts for Hyperstrong include sizable supply contracts, the launch of differentiated products, vertical integration strategies, and supportive policy reforms for the BESS business model [3][14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to iFlytek, indicating that the valuation is fairly priced [1][9]. Core Insights - iFlytek's management is optimistic about the potential of its self-developed foundation models and generative AI applications, particularly in the education and healthcare sectors [1][4]. - The company plans to continuously enhance its Spark X1 reasoning model, with upgrades expected in July 2025, to better meet client demands across various industries [2]. - iFlytek's education business is expected to benefit from generative AI, with a focus on personalized learning and interactive courses, which will strengthen its market position [3]. - The enterprise business outlook remains positive, with customized foundation models being developed for various industries, enhancing competitiveness [4]. Summary by Sections Spark X1 Upgrades - iFlytek upgraded its Spark X1 reasoning model in April 2025 and plans further upgrades in July 2025, aiming to provide tailored AI solutions for different sectors [2]. AI Education Updates - The management is positive about the education segment, leveraging generative AI to boost AI learning machine shipments and enhance product competitiveness through personalized learning paths [3]. Enterprise Business Outlook - iFlytek is focused on providing total solutions for enterprises, including customized foundation models and application software, to facilitate the adoption of generative AI across various industries [4].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a quantitative investment approach that focuses on predicting stock profit growth rankings rather than specific numerical values, aiming for investment returns [1]. Core Insights - The idealized testing indicates that accurately predicting changes in ROE and holding stocks ranked highly can yield excess returns, validating the feasibility of this method [5]. - The introduction of the acceleration concept, which refers to changes in growth rates, can optimize models, enhance prediction accuracy, and reduce risks [1][7]. - The secondary trend extrapolation model, which considers profit growth and acceleration, outperforms linear extrapolation and analyst consensus in terms of prediction success rate (72%) and false positive rate (13%) [8]. - The "Growth Trend Resonance Stock Selection Strategy," which combines the optimized profit prediction model, analyst expectations, valuation, and cash flow factors, has shown excellent performance since 2009, consistently achieving excess returns [9]. - Incorporating machine learning methods, particularly tree models like XGBoost and LightGBM, significantly improves prediction accuracy, achieving a success rate of 85% and reducing the false positive rate to 4.7% [10][18]. Summary by Sections Traditional Economic Investment Approach - Traditional economic investment relies heavily on fundamental research, focusing on deep analysis of individual stocks to understand their business models and future profitability trends [2]. Quantitative Perspective on Economic Investment - The quantitative approach emphasizes breadth over depth, predicting relative rankings of stocks rather than specific profit growth amounts [3]. Validating Quantitative Investment Strategies - Idealized testing can validate the effectiveness of quantitative investment strategies by demonstrating that accurately predicting future ROE changes leads to superior net value performance [5]. Optimizing Profit Prediction Models - The introduction of acceleration in profit prediction models enhances accuracy and reduces risks associated with performance changes [8]. Application of Machine Learning in Profit Prediction - Machine learning models, particularly tree models, are preferred for their ability to handle multiple dimensions of data and capture non-linear relationships, leading to improved prediction accuracy [12][18]. Stock Selection Strategy - The strategy based on the difference Boots prediction factor has shown superior performance across various indices, indicating its effectiveness in stock selection [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Sell" rating on both Sangfor and Venustech, indicating a cautious outlook on the cybersecurity sector [2][17]. Core Insights - The management of Qi An Xin sees generative AI as a significant opportunity in the cybersecurity market, which could lead to increased demand for upgraded cybersecurity solutions due to the intensification of cyber attacks [4][9]. - The integration of generative AI is expected to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of cybersecurity software, particularly in risk detection and analysis, which could attract more clients [4][7]. - There is a noted trend of clients shifting their software budgets from functional tools to generative AI software, which is anticipated to drive average revenue per user (ARPU) and attract new paying customers [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Profile - Qi An Xin, founded in 2014, specializes in cybersecurity, providing software and services to government and enterprise clients. The company has advanced capabilities in endpoint security, cloud security, threat intelligence, and situation awareness [3]. Generative AI Opportunities - Management believes that generative AI will trigger an increase in cyber attacks, creating a potential for upgrading cybersecurity solutions. The company plans to launch the QAX-GPT Security Robot in 2024, which will utilize its self-developed QAX security foundation model to assist security professionals [4][7]. Integrated Cybersecurity Framework - Establishing an integrated cybersecurity framework is deemed more critical than deploying standalone security products. Management emphasizes that platform-based solutions with broad coverage and interoperability will enhance user experience [8]. 2025 Performance Outlook - The management expresses low visibility on near-term demand recovery in the cybersecurity market due to macroeconomic constraints affecting client budgets, particularly in government sectors. However, there is a positive outlook for demand from certain enterprise clients, such as financial institutions and telecom operators [9]. The company is focusing on leveraging generative AI to enhance product offerings and reduce operational costs while improving cash flow [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Kingsoft Office, Kingdee, and Empyrean [5][31]. Core Insights - The momentum of AI-native applications and software with AI features remains strong, particularly in the areas of agentic AI and multi-modal AI models [1][4]. - AI agents are expected to become the new user interface for enterprises, enhancing productivity through proactive responses to environmental changes [4][12]. - The release of upgraded multi-modal AI models focuses on generating and editing various content types with improved quality and lower costs [4][13]. - There is a solid project pipeline for enterprise application wins, particularly in AI model deployment, indicating a larger scale of AI projects compared to traditional ERP or system upgrades [21][4]. Summary by Sections AI Agents and Applications - AI agents are being adopted by enterprises to complete tasks independently, with companies like Manus launching general AI agents and Kingdee introducing multiple specialized AI agents [4][12]. - The report highlights the potential of AI agents to improve user experiences in various sectors, including finance and travel [4][12]. Multi-modal AI Models - Recent upgrades in multi-modal AI models have been made by vendors, focusing on high-quality content generation across different media types [4][13]. - Companies like Stepfun and Wondershare are developing advanced tools for image and video editing, enhancing user capabilities [4][13]. Software Project Wins - The report reviews enterprise application project wins, noting a solid momentum in AI model deployments from late April to the present [21][4]. - The scale of AI projects is generally larger due to the inclusion of integrated solutions, which often require higher computing hardware costs [21][4]. EDA and IP Software Expansion - Local EDA suppliers are accelerating product launches to capture localization opportunities, with new tools being introduced for mixed-signal SoC and digital simulation [4][21].