Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals with a target price of Rmb 22.80, indicating an expected upside from the current price of Rmb 19.88 [5][6]. Core Insights - The management of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals believes that the pharmaceutical distribution industry will experience more stable growth driven by an aging population and increased government healthcare spending, despite potential slowdowns due to cost control measures and anti-corruption policies [2]. - The company sees significant structural growth opportunities, particularly in its Contract Sales Organization (CSO) business, which has a higher gross margin compared to traditional distribution [2]. - The acquisition of Shanghai Hengrui Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance the company's revenue by Rmb 20-30 billion, focusing on traditional Chinese medicine products [3]. - The tightening of pharmacy policies is expected to have a limited impact on the company's business, as pharmacies account for just over 10% of its operations [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical distribution industry is projected to grow steadily due to demographic changes and increased healthcare funding, although policy pressures may slow growth rates [2]. Business Strategy - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals aims to capitalize on structural growth opportunities, particularly in the CSO sector, which is expected to see increased divestment from multinational pharmaceutical companies [2]. - The company plans to leverage its extensive brand portfolio and retail channels to expand its traditional Chinese medicine sales [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from Rmb 215.8 billion in 2021 to Rmb 397.4 billion by 2028, with net profit expected to increase from Rmb 5.1 billion in 2021 to Rmb 7.8 billion by 2028 [8]. - The report anticipates a diluted earnings per share of Rmb 1.28 for 2024, increasing to Rmb 2.11 by 2028 [8]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of Rmb 22.80 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.4% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5% [5]. - The report indicates a forecasted stock price increase of 14.7% and a dividend yield of 2.2%, leading to an expected total return of 16.9% [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of Rmb 76.00 based on a projected PE of 43 times for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company anticipates revenue growth in 2025, driven primarily by demand in consumer electronics and contributions from new products [1]. - The automotive and semiconductor revenue is expected to continue growing due to domestic substitution, while the outlook for lithium battery revenue is conservative, with no year-on-year decline anticipated [1]. - The company plans to control personnel costs in 2025, aiming for a decrease in expense ratio compared to the previous year [1]. - The consumer electronics business is expected to recover, focusing on the module assembly end, with an increase in the proportion of module business anticipated in 2025 [2]. - The company has a competitive advantage in rapid R&D response and cost-effectiveness compared to foreign products [2]. - The outlook for lithium battery revenue is cautious due to fragmented client bidding and selective order acceptance, with a potential dilution of machine vision investment as production capacity increases [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 934 million in 2023 to Rmb 1,043 million in 2025, with a further increase to Rmb 1,214 million by 2026 [7]. - The net profit is expected to rise from Rmb 194 million in 2023 to Rmb 216 million in 2025, reaching Rmb 290 million by 2026 [7]. Profitability Metrics - The EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 14.1% in 2024E to 18.2% in 2025E, and further to 22.0% in 2026E [7]. - The return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to increase from 5.7% in 2024E to 8.1% in 2025E, reaching 11.0% by 2026E [7]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 50.9x in 2024E to 38.6x in 2025E, and further down to 28.8x in 2026E [7]. - The target price of Rmb 76.00 reflects a significant upside potential from the current price of Rmb 68.37 [4][5]. Market Context - The company operates in the diversified industrial sector, with a market capitalization of Rmb 8.35 billion (approximately US$1.14 billion) [5]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range of Rmb 101.00 to Rmb 43.32, indicating volatility in the market [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Sell** rating for the company with a 12-month target price of RMB 11.70 [4][5] Core Views - The company's management is optimistic about the 2025 outlook, expecting strong demand before the Spring Festival and a seasonal rebound in freight rates by mid-to-late March [1] - The company anticipates higher long-term contract rates for European routes in 2025, with rates expected to be around USD 1,000 per FEU higher than 2024 levels [2] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 50% and has sufficient cash to cover capital expenditures for new vessel orders [1][3] Volume and Freight Rate Guidance - The company expects global cargo demand to grow by 2-3% in 2025, with long-term demand remaining robust despite potential risks from US tariffs [2] - The company aims to secure long-term contracts for over 50% of its European route capacity, with rates significantly higher than 2024 levels [2] Future Capital Expenditure - The company plans to invest approximately USD 7 billion in new vessel deliveries between 2025 and 2029, with a focus on green and digital transformation [3] - A total of 43 new vessels with a capacity of nearly 750,000 TEU are expected to be delivered, peaking in 2027 [3] - The company will transition to zero-carbon emissions using a dual-fuel model (traditional fuel and methanol) and implement AI-driven cost-saving measures [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's market capitalization is RMB 226 billion (USD 30.9 billion), with a price-to-book ratio of 1.0x for 2024E [5] - UBS estimates diluted EPS for 2024E at RMB 2.97, declining to RMB 1.05 in 2025E [5] - The company's net debt to EBITDA ratio is not meaningful (NM) for 2024E, indicating a strong balance sheet [7] Company Background - The company is the largest container shipping enterprise in China and ranks fourth globally in container shipping capacity, operating over 230 international routes and serving 290 ports in more than 90 countries [10]

要点如下：1）公司预期2025年出口销量近10%增长，国内市场略增；其 中2025年以旧换新政策或对公交车销量有帮助，但幅度不好判断；2）2024 年4季度以及2025年全年利润率展望佳，因为规模效应和产品结构改 善；3）公司对分红率和资本支出指引未变，现金流表现佳，因此会维持高 分红的战略。 2025年展望积极 海外市场方面，公司初步预期2025年出口1.5万台以上，较2024年1.4万台 水平同比增长约10%，其中新能源客车的出口销量或增长更快。公司预期出 口业务毛利率仍有提升空间，主要由于2025年新能源客车占比提高，以 及2024年下半年电池价格进一步下降。宇通客车估算自身可触及海外市场 容量在8-10万台，主要集中在竞争相对缓和的中高端市场。国内市场方面， 受益于以旧换新政策的加码，宇通预期国内公交车市场将增长，但旅游车增 速或放缓。 abc 2025 年 01 月 13 日 快评 近期投资者反馈 宇通客车 2025瑞银大中华研讨会 根据我们和投资者的路演反馈，宇通客车股价近期涨幅较大，投资者分歧增 加。部分投资者选择获利了结，等待逢低布局；也有部分投资者错过 了2024年11月以来的股价反弹，但看 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for the company, with a 12-month target price revised down from RMB 33.00 to RMB 29.00 [4][5] Core Views - The company's **Spring Festival sales performance** in December showed double-digit year-on-year growth but fell short of expectations due to weaker-than-expected terminal demand and cautious distributor attitudes [1][2] - **Gross margin pressure** is expected to persist due to elevated raw material costs for sunflower seeds, despite a recent pullback from peak levels [1][3] - The company targets **10% revenue growth** in 2025, with potential growth drivers including specific product lines (e.g., hand-picked sunflower seeds, peanuts, nut milk) and channels (e.g., discount stores, Sam's Club) [1] - The company does not rule out further increasing its **dividend payout ratio**, with guidance in the range of 60-80% [1] Financial Performance and Valuation - The **DCF-based target price** was revised down to RMB 29.00 (WACC: 7.7%), reflecting more conservative expectations for revenue growth and gross margins [4] - **EPS forecasts** for 2025/26/27 were revised down by 16%, 16%, and 8%, respectively [4][6] - The company's **market cap** stands at RMB 14.1 billion (USD 1.93 billion), with a P/B ratio of 2.4x for 12/24E [5] - **Revenue** is projected to grow from RMB 7.29 billion in 2024E to RMB 9.07 billion in 2028E, with EBIT margins expected to recover to 14.4% by 2027E [8] Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is refocusing on its core **sunflower seed and nut businesses** after unsuccessful diversification attempts, with seeds accounting for 63% of 2023 revenue and nuts for 26% [11] - **Channel replenishment** has started in January, potentially leading to better-than-expected year-on-year performance for the Spring Festival period [2] - The company's **product mix** and channel expansion are expected to drive growth, particularly in discount stores and membership-based retail channels [1] Market and Industry Context - The **snack food industry** in China faces intensifying competition, which could impact the company's growth trajectory [12] - **Raw material price volatility**, particularly for sunflower seeds and certain nuts, remains a key risk factor for the company's profitability [3][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guoxuan High-Tech is Neutral with a target price of Rmb 22.90 [5][24]. Core Insights - Guoxuan High-Tech aims to achieve a shipment volume of nearly 100 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% [2]. - The company expects a growth rate of over 60% in its power battery shipments, driven by orders for B-class and above models, which have a larger single vehicle battery capacity [2]. - The company has made significant progress in expanding its global production capacity, with plans for factories in the USA, Morocco, and Slovakia [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Operational Updates - In 2024, Guoxuan's shipment volume is projected to grow by about 50% to 65 GWh, with energy storage accounting for 35%-40% of this volume [1]. - The company has planned production exceeding 20 GWh for Q1 2025, showing strong performance even in the industry off-season [1]. Production Capacity Expansion - Guoxuan's production capacity is expected to reach approximately 100 GWh by the end of 2024, with a planned capacity of 150 GWh for 2025, potentially achieving 120 GWh in actual capacity [1]. - The U.S. factory's Pack production line has been completed and is expected to commence production in 2025 [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to increase from Rmb 31,605 million in 2023 to Rmb 39,926 million in 2025 [7]. - The net profit is expected to rise from Rmb 939 million in 2023 to Rmb 760 million in 2025 [7]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb 22.90 is based on the price-to-book ratio valuation method [4].

abc 2025 年 01 月 13 日 Global Research 我们邀请了新奥股份参加瑞银2025大中华研讨会，主要会议纪要包括：1） 公司预计2024年平台气板块销量或达55-60亿立方米；2）公司预计2024年 零售气量或增5%，泛能/智家业务收入或保持20%同比增长；3）近期公 司MSCI ESG评级提升至AAA级。 平台气销量或保持双位数增长 2024年前三季度公司平台气销量达40.6亿方，公司预计全年销量或达55-60 亿方，相比2023年或实现双位数同比增长，但四季度需求或受到暖冬和工 业需求疲软拖累。前三季度公司平台气价差约为0.45元/立方米，其中国内/ 国外价差或为0.22/0.86元/立方米，公司预计四季度价差或环比略有下 滑，2024年全年价差或保持在0.40元/立方米左右（符合先前指引）。 2024年经营数据整体符合先前指引 2024年前三季度公司零售气销量同比增长4.8%，公司预计2024年零售气量 或保持5%增长，舟山LNG接收站处理量或达240万吨，泛能/智家业务收入 或保持20%同比增长，整体均符合全年指引。此外公司维持2024/25年每股 分红保持1.03/1.14 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of Rmb30.50 per share, based on a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 8.9% [4][5]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a slight increase in electrolyte prices in 2025, supported by rising lithium hexafluorophosphate prices and an expected improvement in the industry landscape with limited new capacity from leading firms [2][3]. - The company is focusing on overseas capacity expansion, with plans to establish joint ventures in the U.S. and Morocco, aiming for production by 2027 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Outlook - The company expects a modest rise in electrolyte prices in 2025, driven by an increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices from Rmb56,000 per ton to Rmb63,000 per ton, which will provide cost support [2]. - The anticipated increase in production capacity utilization for lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to rise to approximately 90,000 tons, an increase of about 20,000 tons year-on-year [2]. Overseas Capacity Expansion - The company plans to build 200,000 tons of electrolyte capacity and 100,000 tons of liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate in the U.S. in partnership with Honeywell, with a 51% stake [3]. - In Morocco, the company aims to establish 150,000 tons of electrolyte capacity and 100,000 tons of liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate, with an estimated investment of $200 million to $300 million for both projects, scheduled to commence production in 2027 [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to increase from Rmb12.35 billion in 2024E to Rmb16.89 billion in 2025E, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb519 million to Rmb1.53 billion in the same period [7]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to grow from Rmb0.27 in 2024E to Rmb0.80 in 2025E, and further to Rmb1.17 in 2026E [7]. Market Position - The company is currently the largest producer of electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate globally, leveraging a highly integrated supply chain and economies of scale to maintain cost competitiveness [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from Rmb506.50 to Rmb485.50 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a revenue growth of 25% to 43.9% for 2024, with an estimated revenue of approximately Rmb297 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.5% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 32.6% to 52.6%, with an estimated net profit of Rmb55.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.6% [1][2]. - The growth in 2024 is attributed to new product developments, market share expansion, and economies of scale leading to lower unit costs [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 have been adjusted downwards by 1.3% and 3.9%, respectively, with revised estimates of Rmb29.75 billion in revenue and Rmb5.65 billion in net profit for 2024 [3][9]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and profit is projected to be 32% from 2024 to 2026 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price is based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 7.1x for 2025, down from 7.3x, and corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35x for 2025 [4][10]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately Rmb204 billion (US$27.8 billion) [5]. Financial Performance Indicators - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49% in revenue from 2020 to 2024 [2]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is Rmb10.62, with projections of Rmb14.00 for 2025 and Rmb18.58 for 2026 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from Rmb12.00 to Rmb10.80, based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company is optimistic about growth prospects for 2025, driven by industry clearing in 2024 and policies promoting vehicle replacement, which may lead to a rebound in the trailer industry [1][2]. - The North American market is expected to stabilize after a peak in 2023, with new orders anticipated to turn positive in early 2025 [3]. - The Starlink program is expected to enhance operational efficiency and improve profit margins, contributing to a market share increase from 12% in 2023 to a target of 20% in 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The trailer industry is projected to recover in 2025, with sales potentially rising to 400,000-500,000 units, aided by vehicle replacement policies [2]. - The North American market is currently in a low demand phase following a surge in 2023, but is expected to see a recovery in 2025 [3]. Financial Performance - The company experienced slow revenue and profit growth in 2024 due to a domestic economic slowdown and extended trailer replacement cycles, with sales falling below historical averages [1][2]. - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of Rmb23.1 billion and a net profit of Rmb1.23 billion, with earnings per share projected at Rmb0.66 [7]. Market Position - The company has increased its market share in China from 12% in 2023 to 16% in the first nine months of 2024, with a goal of reaching 20% [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain capabilities in North America to improve competitiveness [3].