May 9, 2025 05:51 AM GMT Shenzhen New Industries | Asia Pacific China BEST Conference 2025 Feedback Key Takeaways Targeting single-digit China growth for 2025, with faster analyzer than reagent growth: For analyzer installations, SNIBE continues to target 2,000 units (¾ being high throughput models) and 200 TLAs in 2025. Reagent ASP should have bottomed in 2Q25 (~5% QoQ decline from 1Q25) hence the YoY price impacts will be largely digested by 4Q25. As for volume, mgmt expects sequentially improving volume ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for China Resources Microelectronics (CR Micro) with a price target of Rmb40.00 for December 2026, based on a 26x one-year forward P/E ratio [1][12][28]. Core Insights - CR Micro reported 1Q25 sales of Rmb2.4 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, while net profit surged by 151% year-over-year to Rmb83 million. However, gross margin declined due to increased depreciation from capacity release [1][12]. - The company is expected to experience a sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% and an earnings CAGR of 39% from 2025 to 2027, despite near-term profit pressures from joint venture (JV) losses in Shenzhen and Chongqing [1][12][27]. - The product segment is anticipated to outpace the service segment in long-term growth, with a projected 18% sales CAGR for products and 10% for services during 2025-2027 [7][12]. Financial Summary - For FY25, revenue is estimated at Rmb11,331 million, with a projected increase to Rmb12,983 million in FY26 and Rmb14,936 million in FY27 [11][20]. - The adjusted net income for FY25 is forecasted at Rmb858 million, increasing to Rmb1,421 million in FY26 and Rmb2,035 million in FY27 [11][20]. - The report indicates a decline in gross profit margin (GPM) from 27.2% in FY24 to 26.5% in FY25, with expectations of recovery to 28.4% by FY26 [20][31]. Market Position and Performance - CR Micro has underperformed the A-share Semiconductor Index by 5% year-to-date and is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 45x for FY26, which is 30% higher than its peers [7][12]. - The company is recognized as a leading power semiconductor supplier in China, with growth driven by an expanding product portfolio and market share gains [12][27]. Key Changes in Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY25 have been slightly revised down from Rmb11,382 million to Rmb11,331 million, while FY26 estimates have been adjusted from Rmb13,019 million to Rmb12,983 million [2][20]. - Adjusted earnings estimates for FY25 have been reduced by 40% to Rmb858 million, reflecting higher-than-expected investment losses from JV fabs [7][12]. Quarterly Forecasts - The quarterly revenue forecast for 1Q25 is Rmb2,355 million, with expectations of Rmb2,803 million in 2Q25, Rmb3,053 million in 3Q25, and Rmb3,120 million in 4Q25 [3][31]. Valuation - The price target of Rmb40.00 reflects a cautious outlook, considering sector-wide headwinds and is positioned at the trough level of historical valuation [12][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aier Eye Hospital Group is Underweight [5][68]. Core Views - The industry view is considered Attractive, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5][68]. - Aier Eye Hospital Group has experienced solid year-to-date growth in the refractory segment, with over 20% growth driven by improved average selling prices (ASP) and volume [3][8]. - The company plans to upgrade more SMILE 4.0 and Wavelight Plus equipment and launch ICL V5 to enhance its technology lead and drive ASP growth [3][8]. Summary by Sections Refractory Segment - The refractory segment has shown significant growth, with a 20%+ increase in 1Q25, attributed to ASP improvements and a recovery in end-demand [3][8]. - ICL procedures have also reversed the declining trend seen in 2024, contributing positively to year-over-year growth [3]. Cataract Segment - The cataract segment experienced single-digit percentage growth in 1Q25, with volume growth higher year-over-year, although blended prices continued to decline due to value-based pricing (VBP) expansion for intraocular lenses (IOLs) [4][8]. - Multi-focal lenses, which are fully paid out-of-pocket, have shown faster year-over-year growth compared to bifocal lenses, which are under VBP [4]. Financial Metrics - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, the estimated revenue is Rmb22,963 million, with an EPS of Rmb0.45 [5]. - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 29.1 and a return on equity (ROE) of 20.2% for the same period [5]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Aier Eye Hospital Group is Rmb122,575 million, with an average daily trading value of Rmb1,168 million [5]. - The stock price as of May 7, 2025, is Rmb13.14, with a price target set at Rmb11.50, indicating a potential downside of 12% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Huaqin Technology (603296.SS) with a 12-month price target of Rmb81.80, indicating an upside potential of 13.6% from the current price of Rmb71.99 [9]. Core Insights - Huaqin Technology's management is optimistic about the growth of its AI server business and expects continued solid growth in consumer electronics, including smartphones and PCs. The company is also exploring new business opportunities in automotive electronics and robotics [1]. - The report highlights Huaqin's diversified product lines, which have shown strong growth in data center infrastructure, smart wearables, and automotive components, contributing significantly to the company's revenue mix [6]. - Huaqin is positioned well in the smart devices market, with expectations for steady growth in smartphone shipments and leadership in smart wearables, driven by generative AI and market share gains from brand customers [6]. - The outlook for Huaqin's PC and server business remains strong, with continued market share gains in the notebook and tablet ODM markets, benefiting from the AI localization trend in China [6][7]. Summary by Sections Business Expansion - Huaqin is expanding its product lines beyond smartphones and PCs to include data center infrastructure, automotive components, and IoT products, with significant revenue growth in these areas [6]. - The data center business revenue is expected to grow at a triple-digit rate, while smart wearables and automotive components are projected to see strong double-digit growth [6]. Market Position - Huaqin has a long-standing experience in ODM for smartphones and is expected to maintain steady growth in shipments due to increasing ODM penetration rates [6]. - The company leads in the Android TWS and smartwatch segments, with generative AI driving growth and brand customers gaining market share from white box competitors [6]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts, projecting revenues of Rmb109.88 billion in 2024, increasing to Rmb209.38 billion by 2027, with corresponding EBITDA growth [9]. - Huaqin's EPS is expected to grow from Rmb2.88 in 2024 to Rmb6.31 by 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth potential [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Changdian Technology with a target price of 43.00 CNY, based on an 18x one-year forward P/E ratio [1][3][22]. Core Views - The future growth outlook for Changdian Technology is resilient, supported by improved capacity utilization, integration of Shengdie Shanghai, and strong seasonal demand for Apple modules. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 11% and a profit growth rate of 43% from 2025 to 2027 [1][6][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Changdian Technology reported sales of 9.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 36% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15%. Net profit was 203 million CNY, up 50% year-on-year but down 62% quarter-on-quarter [1][11][22]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 9% and 11%, respectively, reflecting improved capacity utilization and revenue from the integration of Shengdie Shanghai. However, net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 37% and 11% due to increased depreciation and R&D expenses [2][11][19]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for sales and profits of 11% and 43%, respectively, from 2025 to 2027. The target price remains unchanged at 43.0 CNY, reflecting a conservative approach given the early stage of overall demand recovery [2][11][22]. Investment Rationale - The long-term growth potential of Changdian Technology is supported by an expanding customer base, increased market share in advanced packaging, and improved production efficiency. The company plans to invest 8.5 billion CNY in new capacity and related technology development, particularly in automotive electronics and advanced packaging [6][11][22].

Humanoids | Asia Pacific 2025 China BEST Conference Takeaways Key Takeaways What pain points can humanoids solve? They could provide lower deployment cost for a lot of "long-tail" corner cases, for which it is not economic viable to deploy industrial robots. Humanoids could provide emotional value as well, expected to be realized in a decade. In what scenarios will humanoids be adopted first? With box picking is unlikely to be replaced by robotic arms, humanoids can help manufacturers to further reduce cost ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 6 May 2025 | 8:54AM CST Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclos ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for SMIC is Equal-weight [7]. Core Insights - SMIC's 1Q25 revenue was US$2.25 billion, reflecting a 2% quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) increase and a 28% year-over-year (Y/Y) increase, driven by a 15% Q/Q growth in shipments due to geopolitical concerns, rising demand from consumption subsidies, and restocking in industrial and automotive sectors [2][5]. - The guidance for 2Q25 indicates a revenue decline of 4-6% Q/Q and a gross margin (GM) of 18-20%, down 2.5-4.5 percentage points Q/Q, attributed to a decline in blended average selling price (ASP) due to yield issues and rising equipment depreciation [3][5]. - Management expects the pressure on blended ASP to persist until Q3, with new equipment debugging taking time [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 GM was 22.5%, up 0.1 percentage points Q/Q, exceeding market expectations by 2.1 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, driven by a utilization rate (UTR) of 89.6% [2]. - Revenue projections for the fiscal years ending in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are US$10.155 billion, US$11.620 billion, and US$12.505 billion respectively [7]. Market Dynamics - The strong demand for AI inference is expected to drive revenue growth for SMIC's advanced nodes, although GM erosion from yield decline may negatively impact earnings performance [5]. - Management noted that rush orders from US customers are being observed as they build inventory for 2025 and 2026, with limited financial impact on SMIC due to capacity constraints and logistics bottlenecks [9]. Capacity and Investment - SMIC plans to expand capacity at a rate of an additional 50 kilowatts per month (kwpm) per year, with 82-85% of the US$7.5 billion capital expenditure in 2025 allocated for equipment purchases [9]. - R&D expenses are expected to account for 8-10% of revenue in the long run, despite a temporary reduction in Q1 due to rush orders occupying capacity [9].

9 May 2025 | 9:51AM HKT SMIC (0981.HK): 1Q GM beat at 22.5%; UT rate improving with capacity in continuous expansion 1Q25 Revenue of US$2.2bn (+28% YoY/ +2% QoQ) was largely in-line with GSe/ Bloomberg consensus. 1Q25 GM of 22.5% was stronger than management's guidance and our / street's expectations, which we attribute to the increase of UT rate (89.6% in 1Q25, vs. 85.5% in 4Q24). Capex came in at US$1.4bn in 1Q25, vs. US$1.7bn in 4Q24. We expect Chinese foundries including SMIC to continue to invest meani ...

May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China – Film | Asia Pacific Reducing 2025 Industry Outlook | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT | | Idea | | China – Film Asia Pacific | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Rebecca Xu | | | | Equity Analyst | | | Reducing 2025 Industry | Rebecca.Xu@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7359 | | | Gary Yu | | | | Equity Analyst | | | Outlook | Gary.Yu@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-6918 | | | Greater China Media | | Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line | | | | Company | Ticker | Ra ...