中金公司 2025 动力煤&炼焦煤观点更新 20240208 摘要 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Q&A 2025 年动力煤和焦煤市场的总体判断是什么？ 在过去四年中，动力煤和焦煤市场表现相当不错。尽管供需紧张局面逐步缓和， 平均价格也在有序下行，但优质公司的盈利仍然非常高，ROE 维持在 10%以上没 有太大问题。2024 年，煤炭板块整体表现稳健，但受市场风格切换影响，其股 票涨跌与自身关系不大。2024 年全年涨幅约为 8.6%，低于沪深 300 的 14.8%。 尽管预计 2025 年均价同比下降 10%左右，但由于这些公司的 ROE 高且杠杆率低， 其基本面仍然优于许多工业企业。在 A 股上市的二十几个板块中，煤炭板块基 • 2024 年煤炭板块涨幅低于沪深 300，但基本面仍优于多数工业企业，预计 2025 年煤价虽同比下降 10%，但高 ROE 和低杠杆使其配置价值较高，在 A 股上市板块中排名前五。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：sh ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to TCL Technology with a target price of Rmb4.00, which corresponds to 1.3 times the expected price-to-book ratio for 2025, lower than its historical average by 0.7 standard deviations [4][5]. Core Insights - The domestic demand for large panels is expected to benefit from government subsidy policies, leading to a potential improvement in profits in the short term [1]. - The company anticipates that the price of large-size LCD panels will continue to show a slight upward trend due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced supply from domestic manufacturers [2]. - Profit margins are expected to improve due to higher utilization rates, rising prices, and cost reductions from upstream supply chain maturity and local material substitution [3]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - The company reported a significant decline in TV demand in the first three quarters of 2024, but a noticeable improvement in demand is expected in the fourth quarter due to government consumption subsidy policies [1]. - Large-size panel production is nearing full capacity, while small-size LCD utilization remains above 80%, and OLED production is at full capacity [1]. Price Trends - The company believes that the price of large-size LCD panels has started to recover since December, driven by government subsidies and limited supply increases since 2022 [2]. Profitability Outlook - The anticipated improvement in profit margins is attributed to increased utilization rates, price increases, and cost reductions from upstream supply chain efficiencies [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a gradual increase from Rmb174.446 million in 2023 to Rmb212.718 million by 2028, with net profit expected to rise from Rmb2.215 million in 2023 to Rmb7.959 million in 2028 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 28.50, indicating a potential upside from the current price of RMB 18.92 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company anticipates stable IT investment from banks in 2025 compared to 2024, with a focus on "AI+" applications and potential growth opportunities in mergers, AI, and overseas expansion [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance efficiency and restore gross margins while continuing to focus on large banks with assets over RMB 1 trillion [1]. - The long-term goal is for overseas revenue to account for 20-30% of total revenue, with plans to deepen relationships with overseas clients and consider acquisitions [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5.204 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.470 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 326 million in 2023 to RMB 512 million in 2025 [7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.46 in 2023 to RMB 0.73 in 2025 [7]. Market Position - The company is a leading player in the Chinese banking IT solutions market, providing a range of services including IT consulting, software products, and system integration [10]. - The top five business segments account for nearly 75% of the company's banking IT solutions, focusing on credit operations, data intelligence, online banking, regulatory compliance, and digital credit [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for valuation, with a target price of RMB 28.50 based on the current market conditions [4][5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 13.4 billion (USD 1.83 billion) [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the real estate industry with a 12-month target price of Rmb9.80, while the current stock price is Rmb10.09 [5][22]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the profit margin for the company is expected to recover in Q4 2024 compared to the first three quarters, with a gross margin of 9.95% for the first nine months of 2024. However, the overall gross margin for the year is projected to decline year-on-year [2]. - The company anticipates that projects acquired after 2022 will start to settle, leading to a gradual increase in gross margins, with sales gross margins of approximately 20% for projects acquired in 2022 and below 20% for those acquired in 2023 [2]. - The sales activity in first-tier and core second-tier cities remains strong, but a seasonal decline is expected in January and February. There is no significant rebound in real estate sales in non-core second-tier and lower-tier cities for the last quarter of 2024 [3]. - The land market is expected to maintain high premium rates as developers focus on core cities and regions, with the company planning to accelerate turnover and increase the proportion of improvement-oriented products in 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Valuation - The company is currently trading at 0.9x the estimated price-to-book ratio for 2025, compared to the average of 0.55x for A-share real estate companies covered by UBS [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a decline from Rmb183.003 billion in 2022 to Rmb170.389 billion in 2024E, with a further drop to Rmb155.020 billion in 2025E [6]. - The EBITDA margin is expected to decrease from 11.5% in 2022 to 5.8% in 2024E, with net profit projected to fall from Rmb3.173 billion in 2022 to Rmb3.539 billion in 2024E [6]. - The report forecasts a diluted earnings per share of Rmb0.39 for 2024E, with a slight recovery to Rmb0.38 in 2025E [6]. Market Sentiment - The report reflects a cautious sentiment regarding the company's future performance, with a score of 2 indicating a potential deterioration in industry structure over the next six months, while the regulatory environment is rated at 4, suggesting improvement [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum A with a target price of RMB 12.80 per share [4][5]. Core Insights - The natural gas business is performing well, while the refining business is slightly under pressure due to weak demand for refined oil products. Overall, the upstream business is expected to remain stable in 2024, with a notable performance in natural gas [2][3]. - The company plans to maintain a capital expenditure intensity of RMB 250-300 billion in 2025 and will continue to focus on shareholder returns [2][3]. Business Segment Summary - **Upstream**: The international oil price is expected to be slightly lower than in 2023, but the upstream business is projected to perform steadily, with natural gas production expected to grow by over 3% year-on-year [3]. - **Natural Gas**: The natural gas business shows strong growth, with sales increasing rapidly and domestic prices slightly rising year-on-year. Import losses are also decreasing [3]. - **Refining**: The refining sector is facing challenges due to low domestic demand for refined oil, but the overall operational load remains high. Strict management of consumption tax and enhanced management of crude oil imports may benefit the refining business [3]. - **Chemicals**: Despite a general downturn in the domestic chemical industry, the company has maintained good profitability through optimization of oil sources, cost reduction, and leveraging ethane project advantages [3]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The target price of RMB 12.80 per share is derived using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, with a WACC set at 6%. The report indicates a 30% discount to the NAV of China Petroleum A [4][10]. - Key financial metrics include projected net profits of RMB 171.719 billion for 2024 and earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 0.94 [7]. The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of approximately 5.3% in 2024 [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to XCMG with a 12-month target price of RMB 8.40, representing a potential upside of 12.8% from the current price of RMB 7.45 [4][5][8] Core Views - XCMG is expected to achieve **high single-digit revenue growth** in 2025, with domestic revenue growing at a single-digit rate and overseas revenue maintaining double-digit growth [1] - The company anticipates **improved profitability** in 2025 due to better revenue mix and cost control, leading to a year-on-year increase in net profit margin [1] - XCMG plans to continue reducing off-balance sheet receivables in 2025, indicating a focus on financial health [1] - Overseas inventory levels are reported to be healthy, with an average of around **1 month of inventory** [1] Domestic Market Outlook - Domestic excavator sales are expected to grow at a **double-digit rate** in 2025, driven by infrastructure projects and improved operating hours [2] - Small excavator sales are projected to maintain strong growth, while medium excavator sales are expected to improve [2] - However, demand for concrete machinery, cranes, and aerial work platforms is expected to remain weak in 2025 [2] Overseas Market Outlook - Overseas revenue is forecasted to grow at a **double-digit rate** in 2025, following a similar performance in 2024 [3] - The fastest growth is expected in **Europe, America, and Australia**, primarily due to a low base effect [3] - Asia, particularly Indonesia, is also expected to contribute to strong growth, while Latin America may see a slowdown but still achieve double-digit growth [3] - Mining machinery and aerial work platforms are likely to experience robust growth, with mining machinery benefiting from increased market share due to competitive pricing [3] Financial Metrics - The company's valuation is based on a **12.0x 2025E PE ratio**, with a target price of RMB 8.40 [4] - XCMG's market capitalization is RMB 88.0 billion (USD 12.0 billion), with a P/B ratio of 1.5x and net debt/EBITDA of 0.5x as of 12/24E [5] - The company's EBIT margin is expected to improve from 7.6% in 2021 to 12.9% by 2028E, reflecting stronger profitability [7] Company Background - XCMG is a leading brand in China's construction machinery industry, specializing in products such as cranes, earthmoving machinery, and road construction equipment [9] - The company holds the **top market share** in domestic sales of truck cranes and truck-mounted cranes and is one of the largest exporters of construction machinery in China [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 23.50 per share, based on a DCF valuation method [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a recovery in the olefin price spread in Q4 2024, while the coking segment's profitability declined due to significant price drops in coking coal and coke [2][3]. - The Inner Mongolia olefin project is progressing as planned, with the second and third production lines expected to start trial runs by the end of January and March 2025, respectively [3][10]. - The Xinjiang 4 million ton olefin project is still in the preliminary stages, awaiting government approval [3][10]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 37.213 billion in 2024 to RMB 59.389 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant increase [7]. - The net profit is expected to rise from RMB 7.520 billion in 2024 to RMB 13.337 billion in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [7]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from RMB 1.03 in 2024 to RMB 1.82 in 2025 [7]. Market Data - As of January 15, 2025, the company's stock price was RMB 16.68, with a market capitalization of RMB 122 billion (approximately USD 16.7 billion) [5][24]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of RMB 17.84 to RMB 13.16 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23x for 2024 and 13x for 2025, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [4][7]. - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) is projected to improve from 15.2% in 2024 to 22.5% in 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longbai Group with a target price of RMB 24.30 per share [4][5]. Core Insights - The titanium dioxide market remains under pressure due to anti-dumping tax policies and weak seasonal demand, leading to losses in the sponge titanium and new energy materials segments [2][3]. - Longbai Group plans to achieve titanium concentrate production capacity of 2.48 million tons and iron concentrate capacity of 7.6 million tons by the end of 2025, with tight supply expected to keep titanium concentrate prices fluctuating at high levels [3][4]. - The company continues to export titanium dioxide to Europe and Brazil despite the imposition of anti-dumping duties, with some marginal producers reducing output or halting production [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In Q4, Longbai Group's titanium dioxide sales were approximately 300,000 tons, with total annual sales nearing 1.25 million tons. The market faced challenges from anti-dumping taxes and seasonal demand weakness, resulting in a slight loss during exports to the EU [2][3]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The company anticipates a titanium concentrate output of 1.3 to 1.4 million tons in 2024, with Q4 prices experiencing seasonal fluctuations. The sponge titanium segment saw a slight increase in sales to 20,000 tons, but price declines led to losses [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Longbai Group show a steady increase from RMB 26.765 billion in 2023 to RMB 36.886 billion by 2028, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 3.226 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.095 billion in 2028 [7]. - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) to be RMB 1.45 for 2024, increasing to RMB 2.14 by 2028 [7]. Valuation - The target price of RMB 24.30 per share is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, maintaining a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.4% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 24.00 per share [5][6][25]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a strong performance in Q4 due to favorable price differentials in carbon products and the contribution from the newly operational butanol plant [3][4]. - The company is progressing with its capacity expansion plans, including the construction of new production facilities for various chemical products expected to come online by 2025 [4]. - The overall pricing for the company's main products has improved compared to early 2023, which is expected to positively impact net profits [3]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company expects Q4 performance to be supported by good price differentials in carbon products and rising prices for acrylic acid due to supply tightness from maintenance of some production capacities [3]. - The second butanol production unit is set to contribute to profitability starting in Q4 [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company has initiated operations for its 80,000-ton butanol project in Q4 2024 [4]. - By 2025, the company plans to launch new capacities including 100,000 tons of acrylic acid, 150,000 tons of superabsorbent polymer (SAP), 160,000 tons of polymer emulsion, and 80,000 tons of neopentyl glycol [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects annual capital expenditures to remain between RMB 6 billion to 7 billion over the next three years [2]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 41.487 billion in 2023 to RMB 52.437 billion in 2025, with net profit increasing from RMB 4.789 billion to RMB 6.482 billion in the same period [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 56.00, indicating an expected return exceeding market expectations by more than 6% [4][5]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a single-digit revenue growth in 2025, with the excavator segment expected to achieve double-digit growth, while the non-excavator segment may face significant pressure [1][2]. - The company is establishing new production capacity in Indonesia, expected to commence operations by March 2025, primarily to supply hydraulic cylinders for excavators to Chinese OEMs [1]. - The company is considering setting up a factory in Europe, with a specific location to be determined in 2025 [1]. - The Mexican factory for pumps and valves has commenced production, with plans for hydraulic cylinders to start production in Q1 2025, contingent on U.S. tariff decisions [1]. Summary by Sections Excavator Segment - The company is optimistic about the excavator segment, projecting double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by increased overseas orders and improved market share in excavator pumps and valves, which currently stands at 50%-60% domestically [2]. Non-Excavator Segment - The non-excavator segment is expected to face revenue pressure due to declines in high-altitude and shield machines. However, revenue from agricultural machinery, marine engineering, and industrial non-excavator products may increase, partially offsetting the declines [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company show an increase from RMB 9.509 billion in 2024E to RMB 10.956 billion in 2025E, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 2.598 billion in 2024E to RMB 2.991 billion in 2025E [7].