证券研究报告 兴业银行 (601166 CH) 沈娟 研究员 SAC No. S0570514040002 SFC No. BPN843 贺雅亭 研究员 heyating@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 蒲葭依 研究员 SAC No. S0570525090001 SFC No. BVL774 中收增速改善支撑业绩韧性 2025 年 10 月 31 日│中国内地 全国性股份制银行 目标价(人民币): 27.08 李润凌* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525100006 lirunling@htsc.com 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 10 月 30 日) | 20.03 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 423,892 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 1,686 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 17.76-25.14 | 股价走势图 (8) 5 18 31 44 Oct-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 (%) 兴业银行 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (人民币) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 27.46 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company's revenue showed a slight decline of 1.82% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, an improvement from a 2.29% decline in the first half of the year. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.12% year-on-year, continuing the positive growth trend observed in the first half [2][9]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.08% as of the end of Q3 2025, unchanged from mid-year, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 227.81% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The total operating revenue for the first three quarters was 161.23 billion CNY, with a net profit of 63.08 billion CNY. The net interest income saw a minor decline of 0.56%, but there was a positive growth of 1.38% in Q3 alone [2][9]. - **Loan Growth**: Total loans increased by 4.42% year-to-date, with corporate loans growing by 7.54%. The bank is focusing on supporting key sectors such as green loans and technology loans, which grew significantly [2]. - **Cost Management**: The bank has effectively controlled costs, with provisions for asset impairment losses decreasing by 11.30% year-on-year, supporting profit performance [2]. - **Asset Quality**: The overall asset quality remains stable, with a slight improvement in forward-looking indicators. The proportion of special mention loans decreased to 1.67% [2][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued improvement in the company's fundamentals, with expected net profit growth rates of 0.7%, 1.98%, and 3.29% for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.51X, which is below the historical average of 0.71X, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 net profit was 32.4 billion, which met expectations, while revenue reached 104.9 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. However, net profit decreased by 12.16% year-on-year [1]. - The total oil and gas production in Q3 2025 was 194 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with oil and gas production increasing by 7.1% and 10.4% respectively [2]. - The cost per barrel of oil for Q1-Q3 2025 was $27.35, a decrease of $0.79 year-on-year, but there was a slight increase of $1.31 per barrel in Q3 due to production declines caused by typhoons [3]. - The realized oil price in Q3 2025 was $66.62 per barrel, with a discount of $1.6 compared to Brent, showing a year-on-year narrowing of the discount but a slight widening compared to the previous quarter. The realized natural gas price remained stable at 1.96 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2025 was 171.7 billion, down 6% year-on-year, while capital expenditure was 86 billion, down 10% year-on-year, with a full-year capital expenditure plan of 125-135 billion [5]. Financial Data Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 128.3 billion, 133.1 billion, and 135.8 billion respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 and 6.9 times based on the stock price as of October 30, 2025. The dividend yield is projected at 4.5% and 6.6% for 2025 [5]. - The financial data for the years 2023 to 2027 shows a projected revenue of 404.9 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of -3.72%. The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 278.6 billion, with a net profit of 128.3 billion [6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.70 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 10.01 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.73 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 719.2 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 42.3 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13.7%, exceeding market expectations despite a slight increase in oil prices [1] - The upstream operating profit remained stable, with crude oil production increasing by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, while natural gas production decreased by 2.2% [2] - The refining segment saw a decrease in operating profit by 5 billion yuan, attributed to a 3% decline in crude processing volume and a 3% drop in refined oil production [3] - The marketing segment's profit increased significantly, with refined oil sales volume rising by 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, leading to an operating profit of 5.9 billion yuan, up by 51 billion yuan [4] - The natural gas sales segment experienced profit growth driven by increased sales volume and reduced costs, achieving an operating profit of 12.7 billion yuan, up by 7.5 billion yuan [5] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at 150.9 billion, 169.2 billion, and 174.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 9.8, and 9.6 for A-shares, and 8.1, 7.2, and 7.0 for H-shares [5] - The projected dividend yield for A-shares is 4.7% and for H-shares is 6.4% based on a 52% dividend payout ratio [5] Financial Data Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected at 3,011,012 million yuan, with a growth rate of -5.54% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 150,854.99 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.39% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.82 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 11.03 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 2.93 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 42.13% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.55% [6][9] - The automotive market remains robust, with the company's products covering nearly all automotive brands in China, contributing to a significant increase in sales [9] - The company is actively investing in R&D, with a 49.60% year-over-year increase in R&D expenses, focusing on robotics and liquid cooling technologies [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 796 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 43.84%, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, up 37.24% year-over-year [6][8] - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 1,108 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 34.0% [8] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 194 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 40.4% [8] Investment Analysis - The company has a solid order book with key clients like BYD, which reported a sales increase of 18.64% year-to-date [9] - The company is expected to release additional production capacity in 2026, which will likely enhance its earnings potential [9] - The report has revised profit forecasts upward, estimating net profits of 1.94 billion yuan for 2025, 2.52 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.05 billion yuan for 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth in revenue and net profit, with Q1-Q3 2025 revenue at 823 million yuan (up 8.04% year-on-year) and net profit at 157 million yuan (up 47.86% year-on-year). The Q3 revenue was 264 million yuan (down 5.39% year-on-year), while net profit was 41 million yuan (up 26.69% year-on-year). The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 205 million, 233 million, and 281 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59, 0.67, and 0.81 yuan, leading to a PE ratio of 23.3, 20.5, and 17.0 times [3][4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's revenue from biological products was 589 million yuan (up 3.88% year-on-year), with pig-related revenue at 203 million yuan (down 19.67% year-on-year) and poultry-related revenue at 369 million yuan (up 22.71% year-on-year). The pharmaceutical segment generated 188 million yuan (up 19.91% year-on-year), with pet-related revenue at 15 million yuan (up 39.73% year-on-year) [4] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 60.46% (down 2.69 percentage points year-on-year), while the net margin improved to 19.09% (up 5.14 percentage points year-on-year). The expense ratio decreased to 31.24% (down 7.16 percentage points), with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 22.39%, 8.92%, and -0.07% respectively [5] - R&D expenses for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 67 million yuan, with new veterinary drug registrations continuing to support innovation [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's total market capitalization is 4.776 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 13.80 yuan. The stock has a 52-week high of 15.79 yuan and a low of 11.28 yuan [1] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 1.216 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.7%. The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 205 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from the previous year's decline [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance decline was below expectations, but sales scale remains stable. The company reported a significant drop in net profit and a decrease in profit margins, which contributed to the overall performance shortfall [6][7] - The company has a strong presence in core first and second-tier cities, with a stable sales performance despite a slight year-on-year decline in sales amount [6] - The company is in a favorable financial position, maintaining a green status under the "three red lines" policy, indicating smooth financing and a diversified approach to capital raising [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 69,471 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 214 million, reflecting a significant decline of 77.5% [5] - The company achieved a total revenue of 51,750 million in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 63.6%, but the net profit was only 102 million, down 92.3% [5][6] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 13.5%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 1.1% [5] Sales and Market Position - In Q3 2025, the company recorded sales of 633 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, ranking 11th in the sales leaderboard [6] - The company has increased its land acquisition by 106% year-on-year, focusing on core urban areas [6] Financial Stability - As of Q3 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 346.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net debt ratio of 77% [6] - The company has successfully issued convertible bonds totaling 4.8 billion, enhancing its financing capabilities [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 30.60 CNY, based on a 20x PE for 2026 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in performance, with Q3 2025 showing a net profit of 3.1 billion CNY, a 301.0% increase quarter-on-quarter [10]. - The core business of brand operation generated revenue of 41.0 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, nearly flat year-on-year, while wholesale and retail segments experienced declines [10]. - The launch of the new product "Dijiao Sujie" is expected to drive growth, targeting middle-aged and elderly consumers with improved bioavailability [10]. - The commercialization of ZAP-X is progressing well, with the first precision radiotherapy center signed in Beijing, and a manufacturing base set to be operational by the end of 2025 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 8,256 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, while 2025 is expected to see revenue of 8,625 million CNY, reflecting a 6.6% increase [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 477 million CNY in 2025, down 31.0% from 2024 [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 33.3% in 2023 to 36.3% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to decrease from 8.6% in 2023 to 5.5% in 2025 [5][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 27.4% in 2023 to 19.8% in 2025 [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Cautious Accumulate" [2][6]. Core Views - The overall performance of the company shows steady growth, with an increase in gross margin in the third quarter. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 17.883 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.58%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.689 billion yuan, an increase of 6.22% [2][11]. - The target price is set at 22.21 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 17X for 2025, considering the stable growth of the company's main business and comparable company valuations [11][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 24.525 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.8%. For 2024, it is expected to be 25.435 billion yuan, a growth of 3.7%, followed by a slight decline to 24.920 billion yuan in 2025, representing a decrease of 2.0% [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.134 billion yuan in 2023, dropping to 1.330 billion yuan in 2024, but rebounding to 2.133 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 60.4% [5][12]. - The gross margin for the third quarter was reported at 47.46%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points compared to the previous period [11]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is 34.473 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1.632 billion shares [7]. - The stock price has fluctuated between 19.52 yuan and 25.26 yuan over the past 52 weeks [7]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 16.15, with projections of 25.92 for 2024 and 16.17 for 2025 [5][12]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is currently at 2.02, expected to decrease to 1.82 by 2025 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant performance improvement with a revenue of 1.081 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 46 million yuan, up 141.11% year-on-year, and the non-recurring net profit increased by 578.42% to 39 million yuan [1]. - The company has effectively controlled expenses, with sales and management expenses growing by 2.64% and 14.53% respectively, leading to a decrease in the expense ratio [1]. - The company’s employee stock ownership plan has high performance conditions, requiring a net profit margin of approximately 7.5% to meet the exercise conditions, indicating that the company needs to maintain strong growth in the fourth quarter to meet these targets [2]. - The company has significantly reduced its debt ratio, with total assets and liabilities decreasing by 5.68% and 9.64% respectively, resulting in a debt ratio of 86.05%, down 6.34 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3]. - The company’s cash flow requires improvement, as the cash collection ratio has decreased by 12.67 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s gross profit margin has improved to 46.10%, up 1.98 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 1.414 billion yuan, 1.697 billion yuan, and 2.002 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.24 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.42 yuan [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.081 billion yuan, a 12.03% increase year-on-year, with a quarterly revenue of 449 million yuan in Q3, marking a 12.31% year-on-year increase and a 38.93% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 46 million yuan, a 141.11% increase year-on-year, with an EPS of 0.17 yuan, up 133.29% [1]. Expense Management - The company has effectively controlled its expenses, with sales and management expenses at 205 million yuan and 216 million yuan respectively, showing modest growth rates [1]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of September 2025, the company’s total assets and liabilities were 1.551 billion yuan and 1.335 billion yuan, respectively, with a significant reduction in the debt ratio [3]. - The cash collection ratio was 98.53%, reflecting a decline in cash flow efficiency [3]. Profitability - The gross profit margin improved to 46.10%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to focus on high-quality development and profit growth, with revenue projections indicating a strong upward trend in the coming years [4].