Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10][7] Core Insights - The company is projected to have earnings per share of 0.84, 1.06, and 1.37 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with adjustments made to revenue and gross margin forecasts [4][10] - The target price is set at 57.74 HKD based on a 39x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [4][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted to be 362,463 in 2024, 406,553 in 2025, and 475,075 in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 34%, 12%, and 17% respectively [6] - Operating profit is expected to rise significantly from 20,009 million RMB in 2023 to 38,863 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 610%, 15%, 28%, and 32% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 17,475 million RMB in 2023 to 34,418 million RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 606%, 20%, 26%, and 30% [6] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21.0% to 22.7% from 2024 to 2026 [6] Market Position and Product Performance - The company maintained its position as the third-largest smartphone vendor globally, with a market share of 13% in Q4 2024 and an annual shipment of approximately 169 million units [9] - The company has seen significant growth in its AIoT product categories, with notable increases in sales for various smart home appliances [9] - The automotive segment has delivered over 160,000 vehicles, maintaining a monthly delivery rate of over 20,000 units [9]

此港股通报告之英文版本于 2025 年 2 月 17 日 中午 12 时 35 分由华兴证券(香港)发 布。中文版由华兴证券的王国晗（证券分析师登记编号: S1680524080001）审核。如果 您想进一步讨论本报告所述观点，请与您在华兴证券的销售代表联系。 预计本季度 IoT 和整体盈利强劲：我们预测小米 4Q24 收入首次超过 1,000 亿人民币大关 ，达到 1,050 亿元，同比提升 40%。分板块来看，我们根据 Canalys 数据（4,270 万部出 货）预测智能手机收入为 490 亿元人民币，且因高端机型贡献提升，单价同比增长 6%至 人民币 1,153 元。IoT 方面，我们预测总收入同比增长 46%至 297 亿元人民币，受益于国 内刺激政策，尤其是家电产品。我们预测互联网服务在强劲广告业务势能下收入同比提升 13%至 89 亿元人民币，并预测季度电车交付量为 7 万台、收入为 163 亿元人民币。我们 预测 4Q24 整体综合毛利率环比提升 20 个基点至 20.6%，并预计随着小米持续扩大规模， 电车毛利率将接近 20%。利润层面，我们预测小米的经调整净利润为 70 亿元人民币，涵 盖 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mao Geping [6] Core Insights - Mao Geping is a rare high-end domestic beauty brand that leverages the unique "light and shadow aesthetics" concept developed by its founder to create makeup and skincare products, establishing a competitive moat through offline experiential makeup services. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 0.893 billion, 1.172 billion, and 1.467 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.82, 2.39, and 2.99 CNY, leading to a PE ratio of 37.4, 28.5, and 22.7 times [6] Company Overview - Mao Geping is positioned as a high-end domestic beauty brand with over 20 years of industry experience, evolving through three stages: initial brand creation (2000-2007), market deepening (2008-2018), and rapid expansion (2019-present) [24] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the Mao family holding a significant portion of shares, ensuring stability and continuity in management [27][30] Financial Performance - The company has shown consistent high double-digit growth in revenue and profit, with 2022-2024H1 revenues of 1.829 billion, 2.886 billion, and 1.972 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 57.8%, and 41.0% respectively. The net profits for the same period were 0.338 billion, 0.639 billion, and 0.492 billion CNY, with growth rates of 6.4%, 88.0%, and 41.0% [32] - The gross margin has remained high, with figures of 83.4%, 83.8%, 84.8%, and 84.8% from 2021 to 2024H1, indicating strong profitability [36] Market Growth Potential - The Chinese makeup market is still developing, with a significant gap compared to overseas markets. The domestic market size was approximately 579.8 billion CNY in 2023, with makeup accounting for only about 20.1% [49] - The report highlights the high barriers and stickiness of the facial makeup segment, suggesting that it is easier to defend than to penetrate [49] Competitive Advantages - Mao Geping's unique business model combines online and offline channels, supported by a strong founder IP and a well-established aesthetic design philosophy. The brand's focus on high-end retail channels and a robust membership base enhances its competitive edge [7][8] - The company has a diversified product line, with makeup contributing 55.1% and skincare 22.8% to total revenue in 2024H1, indicating a balanced growth strategy [24][26]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the communication backup lead-acid battery market, with a diverse product range and significant market share in various downstream sectors [4][6]. - The company plans to split and list in the US, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and unlock value for both the parent and the spun-off company [2]. - The company has established strategic partnerships, including one with Amazon, to meet the growing demand for backup batteries in data centers, particularly driven by AI [9]. Company Overview - The company was founded in 1999 and operates over 80 factories and sales offices globally, employing around 14,000 people [4]. - It offers more than 3,000 battery models, with revenue composition as follows: backup batteries (42%), start-stop batteries (38%), power batteries (9%), and lead recycling (10%) as of mid-2024 [4]. - Geographically, the revenue distribution is 58% from China, 15% from EMEA, 18% from the Americas, and 8.8% from the Asia-Pacific region (excluding mainland China) [4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, with a gross profit of 1.062 billion yuan, up 29.8% [17]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 245 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.6% [17]. - The start-stop battery business saw a remarkable revenue growth of 93.4%, with an organic growth rate of 57.1% [17]. Market Position - The company holds a significant position in the lead-acid battery market, ranking first in the shipment volume of communication base station storage batteries in China as of 2022 [12]. - The company is actively expanding its lithium battery segment, which currently accounts for less than 10% of total revenue, indicating substantial growth potential [11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to enhance its market share in the aftermarket for start-stop batteries, targeting a shift from a current ratio of 3:1 in favor of OEMs to an industry average of 1:3 [11]. - It is also exploring new battery technologies, including sodium batteries, vanadium flow batteries, and lithium-sulfur batteries, to align with market trends [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6]. Core Views - Xiaomi Group's smartphone shipments reached 42.7 million units in Q4 2024, marking a 4.8% year-on-year increase, with a global market share of 12.9%, positioning it among the top three manufacturers [1]. - In the Chinese market, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments grew by 28.4% year-on-year, driven by the success of the Xiaomi 15 series and local subsidies for high-end devices [1]. - The IoT business is expected to benefit from the 2024 appliance replacement subsidy policy, leading to significant revenue growth [2]. - The automotive segment delivered 135,000 units in 2024, with a target of 300,000 units for 2025, indicating strong growth potential [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 362.9 billion, CNY 456.2 billion, and CNY 596.8 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 26%, and 31% respectively [3][11]. - Adjusted net profit for the consumer electronics segment is forecasted to be CNY 32.1 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 10% [3][11]. - The automotive segment is expected to show a turnaround with an adjusted net profit of CNY 0.9 billion by 2026 [3][11]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 54 for Xiaomi Group based on a 20x P/E ratio for the consumer electronics business and a 2x P/S ratio for the automotive segment [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" with a target price not specified [3][2]. Core Viewpoints - TCL Electronics is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of HKD 1.3 to 1.7 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% to 112%, likely exceeding the equity incentive target of 65% growth [1]. - The company leads global TV shipments with a projected total of 29 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with domestic shipments up 5.8% and overseas shipments up 17.6% [1]. - The Mini LED segment is expected to see nearly a twofold increase in global shipments in 2024, benefiting from subsidy policies and advancements in high-end product development [1]. - TCL's diverse business segments, including TV, photovoltaic, and full-category marketing, are contributing to robust performance, with a focus on digital transformation and cost control to enhance operational efficiency [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 is between HKD 1.3 billion and HKD 1.7 billion, with significant growth anticipated in the following years: HKD 1.52 billion in 2025 and HKD 1.89 billion in 2026 [2]. - The company’s revenue from TV business has reached a historical high, supported by rapid growth in innovative business segments [1]. Market Position - TCL Electronics is recognized as a leading player in the global television industry, with a steady expansion of market share driven by high-end product offerings and global operational capabilities [2]. Business Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its operational capabilities through digital transformation and efficiency measures, including strict cost control and improved material turnover [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773.HK) [3]. Core Views - Tianli International Holdings is a leading private K12 education group in China, demonstrating strong brand effects and a solid industry position. The company has successfully adjusted its business structure post-2021 regulatory changes and is expected to maintain a growth trajectory with annual expansions of 3-5 new high schools [3][31]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 6.94 billion yuan by FY2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.52% from FY2024 [3][34]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow to 1.34 billion yuan by FY2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 12 times in FY2025 to 7 times in FY2027, indicating an attractive valuation [3][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2002, Tianli International Holdings has expanded from a K9 focus to a comprehensive K12 education provider, establishing 58 schools across 18 provinces by November 2024, serving over 130,000 students [3][16]. - The company has effectively adapted its business model post-2021 regulatory changes, focusing on high school and management services, which has led to a rapid recovery in performance [3][31]. Industry Analysis - The policy environment for private education is stabilizing, with strong local demand for high-quality private high schools. The government continues to support the development of private education, which is expected to drive growth in the sector [39][41]. - The competitive landscape is stable, with high entry barriers for new players, allowing established firms like Tianli to maintain their market positions [41]. Financial Performance - For FY2024, Tianli reported total revenue of 3.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44%, and a net profit of 576 million yuan, reflecting a 72.53% growth [31][34]. - The company’s gross profit margin remained healthy at 33.7%, with significant contributions from the increase in student enrollment and the expansion of service offerings [34][36]. Growth Strategy - Tianli plans to continue its expansion by opening 3-5 new high schools annually, aiming to operate 40-50 high schools by 2027, which will provide comprehensive educational services to 60,000-80,000 high school students [3][31]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its management and operational efficiency through a light-asset model, which is expected to open new growth avenues [3][31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773.HK) for the first time [3]. Core Views - Tianli International Holdings is a leading private K12 education group in China, demonstrating strong brand effects and a solid industry position. The company has successfully adjusted its business structure post-2021 Education Promotion Law, maintaining an expansion rate of 3-5 new high schools annually, with a target of operating 40-50 high schools by 2027 [3][31]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach CNY 6.94 billion by FY2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.52% from FY2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow to CNY 1.34 billion by FY2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 12x in FY2025 to 7x in FY2027 [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tianli International Holdings was established in 2002 and has expanded from a K9 focus to a comprehensive K12 education provider, with 58 schools across 18 provinces as of November 2024, serving over 130,000 students [16][31]. - The company has shown a 30% year-on-year increase in student enrollment, particularly in high school, where the number of students has grown by 46% [3][31]. Industry Analysis - The policy environment for private education is stabilizing, with strong local demand for high-quality private high schools. The government continues to support the development of private education, emphasizing high-quality growth [39][41]. - The competition landscape is stable, with high entry barriers for new players, allowing established firms like Tianli to maintain their leading positions [41]. Financial Performance - For FY2024, Tianli reported a revenue of CNY 3.32 billion, a 44% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 576 million, reflecting a 73% growth [31][34]. - The company’s gross profit margin remained healthy at 33.7%, with gross profit increasing by 43.7% year-on-year [34]. Competitive Advantages - Tianli's strong academic performance, including high college admission rates, supports its brand reputation and facilitates its expansion into new regions [60]. - The company employs a differentiated teaching approach, including a tiered training system to cater to various student needs, enhancing its educational offerings [62].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Electronics is "Buy" with a target price not specified [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - TCL Electronics is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of 1.3 to 1.7 billion HKD in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% to 112%, likely exceeding the stock incentive target of 65% growth [1]. - The company leads global TV shipments with a projected total of 29 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with domestic shipments up 5.8% and overseas shipments up 17.6% [1]. - The Mini LED segment is expected to see nearly a twofold increase in global shipments in 2024, driven by subsidy policies and advancements in high-end and large-size product structures [1]. - TCL's diverse business segments, including TV, photovoltaic, and full-category marketing, are contributing to robust performance, with a focus on digital transformation and cost control to enhance operational efficiency [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 is between 1.3 billion and 1.7 billion HKD, with significant growth anticipated [1][2]. - Profit expectations for 2024 to 2026 are revised to 1.52 billion, 1.89 billion, and 2.26 billion HKD respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment based on the latest earnings forecast [2]. Market Position - TCL Electronics is recognized as a leading player in the global television industry, with a steady expansion of market share through high-end product offerings and global operations [2][3]. - The company is also solidifying its growth in non-core areas such as photovoltaic and internet businesses, contributing to overall performance [2]. Operational Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its operational capabilities through digital transformation and efficiency measures, including strict cost control and improved turnover rates [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Insights - Yum China is the largest restaurant company in China, with over 14,000 stores, significantly influencing the standardization of chain dining in the country over the past 30 years. The company has a highly professional organizational management and a relatively market-oriented ownership structure, with the parent company YUM granting substantial local authority [2][5] - The main brand supporting the company's performance is KFC, which has entered a mature development phase and is expanding its scale boundaries while maintaining a rapid store opening speed. Other brands like Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and Lavazza are also in the process of iterative exploration [2][5] - The company's three core competitive advantages—digitalization, middle and back office efficiency, and localization—currently dominate the industry, ensuring stable performance for mature brands [7] Industry Analysis - The restaurant industry in China is a vast market with an annual revenue of approximately 5 trillion yuan, characterized by a highly fragmented structure. The top 100 restaurant companies account for only 7.7% of the total revenue. The industry maintained an annual growth rate of about 10% from 2015 to 2019, and as of 2023, monthly cumulative revenue has recovered to the levels of the same period in 2019 [14][23] - The fast food market, where KFC operates, is estimated to be around 1 trillion yuan, while the casual dining market is about 500 billion yuan. KFC holds a leading position in the fast food sector, with a market share of approximately 4.9% [17][21] - The competitive landscape is highly dispersed, with a low chain rate of less than 20% in Chinese dining compared to overseas markets. The CR5 (concentration ratio of the top five brands) in 2019 was about 3.1%, with Yum China holding around 1.4% [14][15] Financial Perspective - The company is expected to generate over 10 billion USD in revenue in 2024, with more than 90% coming from directly operated restaurants. The revenue growth rates for KFC from 2021 to 2024 are projected to be 20.31%, 3.08%, 14.14%, and 3.26% respectively [6] - The company's cost control is considered a benchmark in the industry, with strong supply chain capabilities ensuring stable core costs. It is anticipated that in normal years, the company can achieve a net profit margin of nearly 10% [6] Core Competitiveness - The company's digitalization efforts have established a strong brand presence with 400 million members, and ongoing investments in digital capabilities are expected to yield advantages in future algorithms [7] - The middle and back office operations are characterized by a smart, efficient, and agile supply chain that supports food safety, cost stabilization, and product innovation [7] - The localization strategy and brand strength have been embedded since the early management stages, allowing the company to maintain a competitive edge over its peers [7] Relative Valuation - The company's valuation has fluctuated significantly since its listing, initially receiving a 30X valuation in 2020, which increased to 50X in 2022 due to expectations of performance recovery. By 2023, the valuation returned to normal levels, reflecting a more stable growth outlook [8]