Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning, with a target price of HK$16.00, indicating a potential upside of 6.5% from the current price of HK$15.00 [2][12]. Core Insights - Li Ning's 1Q25 performance was in line with expectations, with a focus on product category expansion in 2025, which is designated as an investment year for the company [1][6]. - The company anticipates flat revenue growth for 2025, with a high single-digit net profit margin, as it invests heavily in brand partnerships and product development around the upcoming Olympic Games [6][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the running category, with over 20% growth, while basketball and sports lifestyle categories are experiencing declines [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1Q25, Li Ning's revenue growth was low single-digit, with direct channel sales declining due to a reduction in the number of directly managed stores [3][10]. - The company achieved a sell-through rate of approximately 5X in inventory to sales ratio, with improvements in discount rates across various channels [3][10]. Product Development - Li Ning's retail sales mix for 2024 shows running (28%), fitness (15%), basketball (21%), and casual (35%) categories, with respective growth rates of 25%, 6%, -21%, and -6% [4][11]. - New product launches are planned across all categories for 2025, including specialized running shoes and basketball models, with significant sell-out rates reported for certain lines [4][11][12]. Market Strategy - The company has secured partnerships with the Chinese Olympic Committee and plans to enhance its brand presence through sponsorships and collaborations with sports stars [6][12]. - Li Ning's channel adjustments are nearing completion, positioning the company for a potential brand upcycle post-2025 [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 40.30 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 36.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with a notable decline in mobile metal frame revenue, while automotive business revenue nearly doubled [1]. - The gross margin was reported at 6.3%, down by 0.6 percentage points, primarily due to the reduced contribution from high-margin mobile metal frame revenue [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 620 million, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 13%, 11%, and 11% respectively, leading to expected net profits of RMB 50.3 billion, RMB 60.7 billion, and RMB 69.4 billion [4][11]. - The company anticipates revenue growth driven by North American major clients and the automotive sector, with expected profit contributions of RMB 5 billion and RMB 6 billion respectively from these segments [2]. New Growth Drivers - The new intelligent product segment, particularly the "data center + robotics" business, is expected to become a significant growth driver, with projected revenue contributions of RMB 30-50 billion from the data center business in 2025 [3]. - The robotics business is positioned to enhance the company's "intelligent ecosystem," leveraging its capabilities in robotic components and assembly [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s estimated PE ratio for 2025 is 13.24, which is below the industry average of 14.9, indicating potential undervaluation [14]. - The report highlights a market capitalization of HKD 71.7 billion and a closing price of HKD 31.80 as of April 28 [7][6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 1.79 in 2023 to RMB 3.08 in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [5][18]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 14.67% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 16.04% by 2027 [5][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Ning is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][13] Core Views - In the first quarter of 2025, Li Ning's retail sales recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with improvements in discount rates compared to the previous year [2][3] - The management maintains guidance for flat revenue growth and a high single-digit net profit margin for the year 2025 [10][12] - The company achieved steady revenue growth despite a challenging operating environment and continued contraction in offline channels, while maintaining good operational quality [3][13] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Performance - As of March 31, 2025, Li Ning's retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline channels showing low single-digit growth and e-commerce virtual stores achieving a growth rate in the low double digits [2][3] - The total number of sales points in China was 6,088, a net decrease of 29 from the end of the previous year [2] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -16.8%, +12.8%, and +7.6% respectively [3][14] - The target price is set between 17.9 and 19.2 HKD, corresponding to a 2025 PE ratio of 17.2-18.5x [3][13] Inventory and Discount Rates - The inventory turnover ratio slightly increased to 5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [4][3] - Discounts in both online and offline channels improved, although the trend showed signs of weakening in April [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [10] Core Views - The target price for BYD shares is adjusted to HKD 458.8, representing a potential upside of 20% for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 444.0 for the A-share, with a potential upside of 23% [2][6] - BYD's first-quarter performance sets a growth tone for 2025, with a projected sales volume of 5.5 million vehicles for the year, driven by significant advancements in smart driving technology [10] - The report anticipates a doubling of BYD's overseas sales this year, while single-vehicle profitability is expected to remain stable [10] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for BYD from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 602,315 million - 2024: RMB 777,102 million - 2025E: RMB 892,238 million - 2026E: RMB 1,053,310 million - 2027E: RMB 1,186,221 million - Revenue growth rates are projected at 42% for 2023, 29% for 2024, and gradually decreasing to 13% by 2027 [3][11] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 30,041 million - 2024: RMB 40,254 million - 2025E: RMB 49,632 million - 2026E: RMB 60,562 million - 2027E: RMB 70,470 million - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 81% in 2023, 34% in 2024, and tapering to 16% by 2027 [3][11] Performance Analysis - In Q1 2025, BYD's revenue reached RMB 170,360 million, a 36% year-on-year increase, while net profit doubled to RMB 9,155 million [12] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 20.1%, showing a decline of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [12] - The automotive sales volume in Q1 2025 was 1,000,804 units, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth [12] Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 28.0x for the electric vehicle segment, 17.0x for mobile and electronic businesses, and 10.0x for other segments, leading to target prices of HKD 458.8 and RMB 444.0 [10][14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Chow Tai Fook, but it discusses expectations for gross profit margin and operating profit margin improvements, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1][9][11]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's overall retail sales value (RSV) declined by 11.6% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with the Mainland market and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets experiencing declines of 10.4% and 20.7% respectively, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1][10]. - Despite the decline in same-store sales volume, the company successfully increased the RSV share of high-margin products through product mix optimization and flexible pricing adjustments, leading to an increase in same-store average selling price (ASP) [1][9][11]. - The ASP for gold jewelry in Mainland China rose to HK$6,400, a 14.3% increase from the previous year, while in Hong Kong and Macau, it increased to HK$8,600, a 14.7% rise [1][9]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In FY25Q4, same-store RSV in the Mainland market decreased by 10.4%, with direct-managed and franchised stores seeing declines of 13.2% and 8.7% respectively. The Hong Kong and Macau markets recorded a 22.5% decline in same-store RSV [2][10]. - The high gold prices have suppressed consumer willingness to purchase gold jewelry, impacting sales of gram-weight products [2][10]. Product Strategy - The company accelerated the introduction of set-price products, achieving a 19% share of total RSV in FY2025, exceeding the initial target of 15%. This share is expected to rise to 20%-23% in FY2026 [3][11]. - The RSV share of set-price products in the gold jewelry category increased from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, surpassing management expectations [3][11]. Store Network Optimization - Chow Tai Fook closed 896 stores in the Mainland market during FY2025, primarily underperforming locations, with a total of 6,423 stores globally as of FY25Q4 [5][12]. - The company opened two new image stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, achieving higher productivity levels compared to closed stores, with average monthly sales of approximately HK$1 million [5][12]. Collaborative Products - In March 2025, Chow Tai Fook launched a co-branded gold jewelry collection with Chiikawa, featuring nine designs that sold out quickly, indicating strong market demand for innovative products [6][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.1 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a shareholder loss of 0.691 billion yuan, an improvement from a loss of 1.050 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The raw milk business showed strong growth, while the ruminant animal breeding solutions business faced challenges, with revenues of 15.1 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan respectively for FY24, reflecting year-on-year changes of +17.0% and -13.7% [3] - The company’s cash EBITDA for FY24 reached 5.32 billion yuan, a significant increase of 38.3% year-on-year, indicating strong operational performance despite accounting losses from biological asset impairments [4] - The raw milk price is expected to enter a reversal cycle, with the company positioned to benefit as a leading player in the industry, anticipating a recovery in demand alongside supply-side adjustments [5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for FY24 was 20.1 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 10.05 billion yuan for H2 FY24, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2] - The gross margin for FY24 was 28.8%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material prices and improved operational management [4] Business Segments - The raw milk segment achieved a revenue of 15.1 billion yuan in FY24, with a volume of 3.6695 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, while the average selling price (ASP) decreased by 6.1% to 4.12 yuan/kg [3] - The company has increased its dairy cow inventory to 622,000 heads, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, enhancing its production capacity [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 to 22.25 billion yuan and 24.49 billion yuan respectively, with an additional forecast for FY27 at 25.79 billion yuan [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for FY25 and FY26 have been revised to 0.17 yuan and 0.28 yuan respectively, with a new forecast for FY27 at 0.38 yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Ning is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The report indicates that Li Ning's Q1 performance met expectations, with low discount sales improving and strong growth in running and e-commerce segments. The company focuses on professional sports, increasing resource allocation and expanding new products to cater to niche markets and emerging sectors [6][7][9] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For the fiscal year 2023, Li Ning reported a revenue of 27,598 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 28,742 million HKD, reflecting a minimal growth of 0.2% [10] - The net profit for 2023 was 3,187 million HKD, showing a decline of 21.6% year-on-year. The estimated net profit for 2025 is 2,459 million HKD, indicating a further decline of 18.4% [10] - The gross margin for 2023 was 48.4%, with a projected gross margin of 49.8% for 2025. The net margin is expected to decrease from 11.5% in 2023 to 8.6% in 2025 [10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 14.6, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.4 [10] Operational Insights - In Q1 2025, Li Ning's total store count was 6,088, a decrease of 2% year-on-year. The company plans to close 10-20 direct stores and open 30-40 wholesale stores throughout the year [8] - The report highlights that the running category saw over 20% growth, driven by sponsorship of events and strong performance of new running shoe products [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36.88 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.10%, while gross profit decreased by 7.35% to 2.32 billion RMB, resulting in a gross margin of 6.3% [1][2]. - The decline in revenue from metal components is attributed to a decrease in high-end smartphone sales from major North American clients, despite a 1.5% increase in global smartphone shipments [2]. - The company is expected to enhance its market share with North American clients and improve efficiency through automation, while also expanding its AI-related product offerings [2]. - The growth in the electric vehicle market and advancements in intelligent driving technology are projected to drive significant revenue growth in the company's automotive business in 2025 [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 129.96 billion RMB in 2023 to 194.50 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit expected to rise from 4.04 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.30 billion RMB in 2025 [4][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.79 RMB in 2023 to 2.35 RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 24.2% [4][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 17 in 2023 to 13 in 2025, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation as earnings grow [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5][3] Core Views - Li Ning's adult revenue showed steady growth in Q1 2025, with e-commerce performance being particularly strong, while overall performance met expectations [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its children's clothing product structure and enhancing brand promotion, which is expected to drive steady growth in the children's clothing segment [2] - The company is managing inventory effectively, with an estimated inventory-to-sales ratio of around 5, indicating a healthy and controllable level [2] - For 2025, the company expects revenue to remain flat year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 17.5% [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 24.86 billion, 26.66 billion, and 28.81 billion respectively, with a PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [3] - Financial indicators for 2025 include: - Revenue: 28,919 million - Net profit: 2,486 million, a decline of 17.5% year-on-year - EPS: 0.96 - ROE: 9.1% [4][11] - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 0.8% for 2025, 6.5% for 2026, and 5.9% for 2027 [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 15.61 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 23.9 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and an operating profit of HKD 3.96 billion, up 10.8% year-on-year [1][2]. - New contract signing amounted to HKD 50.5 billion in Q1 2025, a decline of 29.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from a significant project in Q1 2024 [1][2]. - Excluding the impact of the major project, the year-on-year growth in new contracts would be 59%, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.2% from Q1 2023 to Q1 2025 [2]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, revenue from technology-driven, investment-driven, construction, and operations segments were HKD 4.8 billion, HKD 11.4 billion, HKD 6.2 billion, and HKD 0.5 billion respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 22%, 5%, -9%, and 11% [2]. - The contribution of technology-driven revenue increased to 20% of total revenue, while construction revenue accounted for 26% [2]. Market Opportunities - The construction of the Northern Metropolis in Hong Kong is expected to boost engineering expenditures, with average annual spending projected to rise from HKD 90 billion to HKD 120 billion over the next five years [3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from urban renewal initiatives in mainland China, leveraging its MiC technology for efficient and sustainable construction [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is HKD 10.31 billion, HKD 11.17 billion, and HKD 12.05 billion respectively [4][19]. - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 8x for 2025, with a target price of HKD 15.61 based on this valuation [4][19].