Investment Rating - The investment rating for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. is Overweight [4] Core Insights - Despite reports suggesting a loss of market share in China, the statistics are misleading due to the increase in EV exports. SNE data indicates that CATL's monthly market share remains stable within historical ranges [2][7] - CATL's ePV battery market share in China has averaged approximately 42% over the past couple of years, while BYD has gained significant share in the car market [7][8] - The report highlights that CATL is gaining market share in Europe year-to-date, contrasting with its performance in China [10] Summary by Sections Market Share Analysis - Battery Alliance data shows CATL's monthly market share was below historical trough levels, but this is misleading due to expanding EV exports. SNE data based on retail sales shows CATL's share remains stable [2][7] - The competition in the ePV battery market is primarily between CATL and BYD, with smaller battery makers not gaining significant share [7] Financial Metrics - Revenue projections for CATL are as follows: Rmb 362,013 million for FY 2024, Rmb 422,167 million for FY 2025, Rmb 497,822 million for FY 2026, and Rmb 600,728 million for FY 2027 [4] - EBITDA estimates are projected at Rmb 91,863 million for FY 2024, Rmb 106,451 million for FY 2025, Rmb 117,557 million for FY 2026, and Rmb 140,292 million for FY 2027 [4] Valuation - The price target for CATL is set at Rmb 355.00, indicating a 35% upside from the closing price of Rmb 262.59 on July 3, 2025 [4] - The valuation methodology used is based on EV/EBITDA, assigning a multiple of 15x to the 2025E EBITDA [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Conant Optical (2276.HK) as it is categorized as "Not Covered" [1]. Core Insights - Conant Optical is expanding its business from traditional spectacle lenses to AI/AR glasses, anticipating sustained growth in its core business and increased demand for AI/AR glasses due to their higher dollar content and specific client requirements [1][2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing AI/AR glasses market, with expectations of a 56% CAGR in shipments in China from 2024 to 2030, reaching 7 million units by 2030 [2]. - Conant's customized lenses for AI/AR glasses are designed to be lighter and thinner, with a significant increase in average selling price (ASP) compared to traditional lenses [4]. Summary by Sections Company Profile - Conant Optical is a leading resin lenses manufacturer in China, with 44% of its revenues from standardized lenses, 37% from functional lenses, and 19% from customized lenses, which have a higher gross margin [3]. - The company operates in 90 countries and ranks among the top 10 resin lenses manufacturers globally by revenue [3]. Market Outlook - Management expresses optimism about the AI/AR glasses market's growth potential, indicating that Conant will be a key beneficiary due to its customized lens solutions for both global and local clients [8]. - The company plans to enhance its market presence by partnering with offline stores in China to facilitate the lens ordering process for consumers [8]. Production Capabilities - Conant has demonstrated strong mass production capabilities, allowing it to produce millions of customized lenses quickly, supported by its precision manufacturing skills [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with a new plant in Thailand expected to commence operations in 2026 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Pharmaceuticals is Neutral with a 12-month price target of HK$6.17, representing an upside potential of 18.8% from the current price of HK$5.19 [8][29]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing soft growth in the first half of the year, leading management to lower previous guidance of double-digit year-on-year sales growth for 2025, pending a recovery in the second half [1][2]. - The distribution business is facing challenges due to a tough industry environment, and there are no clear signals of growth recovery as the national medical reimbursement fund remains tight [2][3]. - Cash collection is under pressure, with hospitals' financial positions still strained, resulting in delayed payments for non-VBP products despite some acceleration in cash collection for VBP products [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected to be HK$271.5 billion, with a 5-year EPS CAGR of 10% for the manufacturing business and 5% for the distribution business [7]. - The company’s market cap is HK$32.6 billion, with an enterprise value of HK$133.8 billion [8]. Business Segments - The manufacturing business is valued at HK$31.4 billion, while the distribution business is valued at HK$4.1 billion [7]. - Specific challenges include slower growth for Sanjiu due to a high base, pressure on Boya from albumin VBP, and a softer growth trajectory for plasma collection [2]. Cash Management - To alleviate cash pressure, the company is managing its cash cycle actively, including de-prioritizing high-risk regions for receivables [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both JD Health and Meituan, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the healthcare sector [5][22]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical retail O2O market in China is characterized by strong competition, with Meituan being the largest player due to its delivery capabilities and early market entry in 2013. JD Health is emerging as a significant competitor with advantages in supply chain and asset-heavy business model [2][4]. - Meituan's healthcare product GMV is estimated to reach approximately Rmb45 billion in 2023, with a target growth rate of at least 30% annually. The majority of its healthcare-related GMV comes from O2O sales [2][3]. - JD Health's asset-heavy model may provide a competitive edge in the healthcare industry, as many services require offline provision and have higher logistics demands. JD Health's scale gives it stronger bargaining power with suppliers [4][5]. Summary by Sections Meituan's Position - Meituan has captured a significant share of the pharmacy market, with around 250,000 pharmacies operating on its platform. The company aims to expand its healthcare segment despite challenges in driving growth due to market saturation [2][3]. - The expert suggests potential strategies for Meituan to enhance growth, including integration with the medical beauty segment and lobbying for reimbursement of O2O drug orders in more cities [3]. JD Health's Competitive Edge - JD Health operates its own offline pharmacies, which provides it with a supply chain advantage over Meituan. This model may be more suitable for the healthcare sector, where offline services are crucial [4]. - The report highlights that JD Health could outperform revenue growth expectations due to strong drug sales and gross profit margin expansion [5]. Market Outlook - The internet healthcare space is viewed positively due to its high growth visibility and potential catalysts such as AI and consumption recovery. Both JD Health and Meituan are expected to benefit from these trends [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the report is "Overweight" [3][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights the technology and leadership position of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd (CATL) in the global electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage system (ESS) battery markets, emphasizing its ability to maintain resilient profits despite pricing pressures in the supply chain [11][16]. - The price target for CATL is set at Rmb370.00 for June 2026, based on a projected P/E ratio of 20x for 2026E-27E, which is at the lower end of the company's historical trading range due to slower industry growth compared to earlier stages [12][17]. Financial Estimates - For FY25E, net sales are projected at Rmb404,942 million with a year-over-year growth of 12% [5]. - The gross profit for FY25E is estimated at Rmb99,220 million, maintaining a gross margin of 25% [5]. - The adjusted net income for FY25E is forecasted to be Rmb61,861 million, reflecting a net profit growth of 22% year-over-year [5][20]. Performance Drivers - The report identifies various performance drivers, including market factors contributing 27%, regional factors at 23%, and macroeconomic factors at 13% [13]. - The correlation of CATL's performance with the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index is noted at 0.62 over six months and 0.53 over one year [13]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics, indicating an expected revenue growth of 19.7% for FY26E and an EBITDA margin of 25.5% for the same year [14]. - The adjusted P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.8 in FY24A to 12.4 in FY27E, reflecting a more favorable valuation over time [14][20].

Investment Ratings - Upgrade New Oriental Education (EDU) to Buy with target prices of US$77/HK$60, representing a potential upside of 54% [1][9] - Downgrade TAL Education Group (TAL) to Neutral with a target price of US$11.54, indicating a downside of 14% [1][18] Core Insights - The report highlights a pair trade strategy to capitalize on the diverging operational trajectories between EDU and TAL, with EDU expected to benefit from operating leverage in K12 education while TAL faces ongoing hardware losses [1][4] - EDU's revenue mix is shifting towards domestic segments, with K9 and Senior High expected to grow from 45% to 55% of revenue by FY26E, leading to significant margin expansion [2][12] - TAL's core Learning Services business provides a solid downside floor, but persistent losses in the Content Solutions segment limit near-term upside potential [3][18] Summary by Sections New Oriental Education (EDU) - The upgrade to Buy is based on a compelling domestic mix-shift story, with structural margin expansion expected as domestic segments grow significantly [2][54] - The report projects that each 1% revenue shift from overseas to domestic will add 8-10 basis points to consolidated margins, creating a multi-year earnings tailwind [2][13] - EDU's current valuation at ~17x NTM P/E does not reflect its intrinsic value, with a sum-of-parts analysis suggesting substantial upside potential [2][55] - Cost discipline measures, including rent cuts and controlled headcount growth, are expected to amplify operating leverage [2][14] - The anticipated dividend plan is viewed as a key near-term catalyst for re-rating [2][15] TAL Education Group (TAL) - The downgrade to Neutral reflects a balanced risk/reward profile, with limited near-term upside due to ongoing operational challenges [3][18] - TAL's core Learning Services business, combined with its net cash position, suggests a firm value floor at US$10.89 per share [3][31] - The Content Solutions segment is projected to continue incurring losses through FY27E, which significantly impacts overall profitability [3][18] - A proprietary lease-based analysis indicates that TAL's center maturity distribution is evolving, which is expected to drive margin expansion over time [20][24] - The report emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the path to profitability for the Content Solutions segment, with execution risks persisting through FY28E [3][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CATL A/H shares, with a 12-month price target of Rmb323.00 for CATL A shares and HK$343.00 for CATL H shares, indicating an upside potential of 27.8% and 5.7% respectively [1][4][20]. Core Insights - The launch of Xiaomi's YU7, equipped with CATL batteries, is expected to bolster CATL's product mix improvement and drive growth in Qilin battery penetration starting in the second half of 2025 [2][26]. - Xiaomi has become CATL's largest high-end battery customer, contributing approximately 50% of Qilin and Shenxing installations in Q1 2025, with projections indicating significant growth in battery supply to Xiaomi in the coming years [3][31]. - The report emphasizes that product mix improvement is crucial for CATL's unit profit expansion, which has been undervalued by the market [4][38]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - CATL's market capitalization is Rmb1.2 trillion (approximately $160.7 billion), with an enterprise value of Rmb881.8 billion (approximately $123.0 billion) [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb362 billion in 2024 to Rmb588 billion by 2027, with EBITDA increasing from Rmb77.5 billion to Rmb143 billion over the same period [5][18]. - EPS is expected to rise from Rmb11.58 in 2024 to Rmb22.49 in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][18]. Growth and Margins - Total revenue growth is forecasted at -9.7% in 2024, followed by a recovery with 20.4% growth in 2025 and 22.1% in 2026 [13]. - EBITDA margin is expected to improve from 21.4% in 2024 to 24.3% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [13]. Competitive Position - CATL is projected to maintain a significant market share in the EV battery sector, with Xiaomi closing the gap with top competitors like Tesla and Geely [28][30]. - The report highlights that CATL's high-end NCM battery, Qilin, is expected to see a resurgence in penetration, alleviating pressures from lower-priced LFP battery competition [2][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Zai Lab's H shares/ADS, with a 12-month DCF-based target price of HK$41.24/US$52.91, indicating an upside potential of 43.2% for the US shares and 39.8% for the HK shares [6][7]. Core Insights - Zai Lab management reiterated FY25 guidance, expecting total sales between US$560 million and US$590 million, with cash profitability anticipated in Q4 [5][6]. - The company has received FDA approval for the pivotal trial design for ZL-1310, which includes a sample size of 300-400 patients and an option for accelerated approval [6][7]. - Strong phase 3 data for bemarituzumab is expected within the next three months, with three key readouts anticipated [5][6]. Summary by Sections FY25 Guidance and Financial Outlook - Management observed a recovery in efgar sales in Q2 after a soft Q1, with confidence in achieving FY25 sales guidance [5]. - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) is expected to improve, with a target to reduce GPM by two-thirds by 2027 compared to 2024 [5]. Drug Development Updates - Positive feedback was received for SUL-DUR, with larger sales expected in 2026 [5]. - KarXT is on track for approval by the end of 2025 or early 2026, with recruitment for key commercial positions ongoing [5]. FDA and Business Development - The FDA has approved the pivotal trial design for ZL-1310, allowing for conditional approval based on interim data [6]. - Management indicated no immediate financing plans, stating sufficient resources to support the pivotal trial [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating for SF Holding Co. Ltd - A and H shares, with price targets of Rmb52.00 and HK$46.00 respectively [4][39]. Core Insights - SF Holding has shown exceptional performance in the logistics sector, with A and H shares rising 24% and 38% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the CSI300 index, which is down 2% [2][10]. - The company's growth is attributed to operational optimization, innovative pricing models, and the use of advanced technologies like AI and robotics, enhancing efficiency and profitability [2][14]. - SF's business model reveals substantial upside potential, particularly in international parcels and supply chain management, positioning it favorably against global competitors like UPS [9][11]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - SF has achieved robust parcel volume growth, with increases of 25%, 30%, and 32% year-over-year in March, April, and May respectively [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) has declined by 12-14% year-over-year due to the introduction of lower-priced parcels, but this strategy is expected to improve overall infrastructure utilization [3][10]. Market Positioning - SF's integrated business model allows it to capture market share across both high-end and low-end segments, maintaining profitability despite competitive pressures [2][3]. - The company views tariff impacts as manageable, with minimal effects on its bottom line, and anticipates growth in its logistics routes due to increased demand for comprehensive solutions [7][10]. Valuation Analysis - SF's valuation premium is justified by its unique position in China's logistics market, trading at 18x and 15x EV/EBITDA for FY26E, compared to peers at 11.5x [10][35]. - The report suggests that SF can trade at above 8-10x EV/EBITDA, reflecting its promising growth rates and significant upside potential in international and supply chain management [10][35].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 3SBio Inc. is Neutral with a 12-month price target of HK$9.37, indicating a downside potential of 58.2% from the current price of HK$22.40 [8][7]. Core Insights - The management of 3SBio Inc. highlighted the successful execution of the licensing-out deal for SSGJ-707 with Pfizer, which was negotiated in less than two months. The initiation of global clinical trials is expected to begin in the third or fourth quarter of 2025 after the deal closes [2][1]. - The company is actively seeking business development opportunities with a growing pipeline that includes assets such as TL1A, BDCA2, and multiple early-stage antibodies, as well as a pre-clinical candidate for weight loss [2][1]. - Product sales in the first half of 2024 are anticipated to be soft due to a challenging industry environment and a high sales base from key drugs, particularly TPO, which saw a growth of 23% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [3][1]. Summary by Sections Licensing and Business Development - The licensing-out deal for SSGJ-707 is a significant milestone, with the first overseas study expected to start in late 2025. The phase 3 clinical trial for SSGJ-707 as a monotherapy has already commenced in China [2][1]. - The company is focusing on sourcing late-stage assets to enhance its product portfolio, including a recently licensed oral paclitaxel expected to drive growth in 2026 [6][1]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates earnings growth to outperform revenue growth due to savings in operating expenses, despite the soft product sales outlook for the first half of 2024 [3][1]. - The financial forecasts indicate a revenue increase from RMB 9,108 million in 2024 to RMB 11,112.7 million by 2027, with an expected EBITDA growth from RMB 2,922.2 million to RMB 3,856.6 million over the same period [8][7].