| [Table_ 货币单位：人民币 Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 134,598 | 133,125 | 128,962 | 136,730 | 146,565 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 9% | -1% | -3% | 6% | 7% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 60,116 | 64,218 | 42,454 | 56,182 | 60,480 | | NonGaap归母净利润 （百万元） | 28,747 | 27,002 | 18,257 | 20,985 | 24,182 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 39% | -6% | -32% | 15% | 15% | | NonGaap EPS （ 元 /ADS） | 84 | 79 | 53 | 61 | 70 | | 市 盈 率 NonGaap （P/E） | 13 | 14 | 21 | 18 | 16 | | ROE （ % ） | 8% | 9% | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (stock code: 2020.HK) [6][35]. Core Insights - Anta Sports plans to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA SE for €1.5 billion, which will make it the largest single shareholder of PUMA. This acquisition is aimed at enhancing its global footprint and brand matrix, following previous acquisitions of Amer Sports and Jack Wolfskin [6][8]. - The acquisition is expected to strengthen Anta's position in the mid-to-high-end professional sports sector and create new growth opportunities through global resource integration and synergy effects [6][8]. - PUMA is currently undergoing a strategic reset, which has led to a decline in its revenue and profits. The company reported a revenue of €5.974 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, down 8.5% year-on-year, and a net loss of €308 million [9][6]. - The report highlights that PUMA's footwear segment remains resilient, contributing approximately 53.7% of its revenue, and is expected to drive future growth despite current challenges [17][9]. Financial Projections - Anta Sports' projected total revenue for 2024 is ¥70.826 billion, with a growth rate of 13.58%. The net profit is expected to be ¥15.596 billion, reflecting a profit growth rate of 52.36% [2][36]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is adjusted to ¥4.66, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 [36][35]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in PUMA's performance post-acquisition, with long-term benefits expected from the integration of PUMA into Anta's operations [35][34].

[Table_Page] 公告点评|食品与主要用品零售Ⅱ 证券研究报告 | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 4.31 港元 | | 合理价值 | 5.18 港元 | | 前次评级 | 增持 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-30 | 核心观点： *除非特别说明，否则报告货币为人民币 ⚫ 事件：公司发布 2025 年正面盈利预告。公司预计 2025 年实现收入 77.5~78.5 亿元，同比+19.8%~+21.3%；预计实现净利润 4.43~4.63 亿 元，同比+83.7%~+92.0%；预计实现核心经营利润 4.50~4.70 亿元， 同比+44.8%~+51.2%，全年收入和利润增长亮眼。 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 6,094 | 6,470 | 7,802 | 9,424 | 11,363 | | 增长率（ % ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company [5][11] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 1.191 billion for 2QFY26, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.7%. The education business (including cultural tourism) generated USD 974 million, up 13% YoY, while other businesses (primarily EastBuy) saw revenue of USD 217 million, a 22.9% YoY increase [3][7] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 73 million, surging 68.6% YoY, with a Non-GAAP net margin of 6.1%, expanding by 2 percentage points YoY [3][7] - The overseas study business growth has bottomed out, with revenue from overseas test preparation and consulting at USD 252 million, a 1% YoY increase, indicating a slowdown of 29.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [8][11] - New business segments, including K9 non-academic subject tutoring and learning tablets, achieved a revenue growth of 21.6% YoY to USD 366 million, with the number of learning centers increasing to 1,379, up 21% YoY [4][9] - Operating margins are improving, with the Non-GAAP operating margin expanding by 4.7 percentage points YoY to 7.5% in 2QFY26, driven by margin improvements in new businesses [10][11] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been raised to USD 5.5 billion, USD 6.11 billion, and USD 6.89 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of USD 5.38 billion, USD 5.98 billion, and USD 6.73 billion [5][11] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been adjusted to USD 570 million, USD 629 million, and USD 700 million, respectively, up from previous forecasts of USD 555 million, USD 610 million, and USD 679 million [5][11] - The company is moderating its full-year learning center expansion pace to 10% to improve capacity utilization rates, indicating a strategic shift towards operational efficiency [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) [2][7] Core Insights - New Oriental's revenue for 2QFY26 reached USD 1.191 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.7%. The education business (including cultural tourism) generated USD 974 million, up 13% YoY, while other businesses (primarily EastBuy) saw revenue of USD 217 million, a 22.9% YoY increase. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 73 million, surging 68.6% YoY, with a non-GAAP net margin of 6.1%, expanding by 2 percentage points YoY [5][9] - The overseas study business growth has bottomed out, with revenue from overseas test preparation and consulting at USD 252 million, a 1% YoY increase, indicating a slowdown of 29.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [10] - New business segments, including K9 non-academic tutoring and learning tablets, showed robust growth with a 21.6% YoY increase in revenue to USD 366 million. The number of learning centers increased to 1,379, up 21% YoY [11] - Operating margins are improving, with the non-GAAP operating margin expanding by 4.7 percentage points YoY to 7.5% in 2QFY26. The education business's non-GAAP operating margin was 6.6%, up 3.5 percentage points YoY [12] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been raised to USD 5.5 billion, USD 6.11 billion, and USD 6.89 billion, respectively. Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for the same period have also been increased to USD 570 million, USD 629 million, and USD 700 million [7][13] - The financial data for FY24 to FY28 indicates a steady growth trajectory, with revenue expected to grow from USD 4.314 billion in FY24 to USD 6.887 billion in FY28, and net profit increasing from USD 464 million to USD 700 million over the same period [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 2.31 billion RMB in FY26H1, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.7%, with adjusted net profit reaching 258 million RMB, a significant improvement from a loss of 2 million RMB in FY25H1 [1][10]. - The company's self-operated products have shown strong performance, with their contribution to total GMV rising to 52.8% in FY26H1, up from 43.8% in FY25, indicating a successful shift towards brand transformation [2][10]. - The company is expanding its multi-channel strategy, with plans to open its first offline experience store in Beijing, enhancing customer engagement through a combination of shopping, leisure, and social experiences [3][10]. Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY26-28 have been raised to 514 million, 535 million, and 603 million RMB, reflecting increases of 36%, 37%, and 43% respectively compared to previous estimates [4][10]. - The gross margin improved to 36.4% in FY26H1, driven by the healthy development of self-operated products and optimization of personnel costs [10]. Market Positioning - The company has successfully diversified its product categories from fresh food to high-demand areas such as nutritional supplements, pet food, and apparel, which has effectively boosted the gross margin of self-operated products [2][10]. - The membership base has grown to 240,100 in FY26H1, up from 228,300 in FY25H1, indicating a strong and expanding user engagement [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Sunny Optical, with a new target price (TP) of HK$91.38, implying a potential upside of 45.3% from the current price of HK$62.90 [3][14]. Core Insights - Sunny Optical has announced a positive profit alert for FY25E, projecting a net profit growth of 70-75% year-over-year, driven by high-end specification upgrades, improved product mix, and investment income from a deal with Goertek Optical Tech [1][9]. - For FY26, the company expects revenue growth to be supported by trends in smart driving, AI/AR glasses, and high-end camera specifications, which will help offset weaknesses in the smartphone segment due to memory cost pressures [1][9]. - The report indicates a slight reduction in FY26-27E EPS estimates by 1-4% to account for headwinds in the smartphone industry [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 42,056 million, with a year-over-year growth of 9.8%. For FY26E, revenue is expected to decline slightly to RMB 41,582 million, followed by a recovery to RMB 45,468 million in FY27E [2][22]. - Net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 4,610 million in FY25E, a 70.8% increase year-over-year, but is expected to decrease to RMB 3,909 million in FY26E before rebounding to RMB 4,699 million in FY27E [2][22]. - The report highlights a projected EPS of RMB 4.24 for FY25E, with consensus estimates at RMB 3.25 for the same period [2][11]. Valuation - The new target price of HK$91.38 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology, applying a target P/E multiple of 23.4x FY26E EPS, reflecting the company's diversified business model and growth potential across various segments [3][14][16]. - The report assigns different P/E multiples to various business segments, with 23x for camera modules and handset lenses, and 25x for vehicle lenses, reflecting their respective market positions and growth prospects [15][16].

個股推介 中國中免(1880.HK) 2026 年 1 月 30 日星期五 第三季收入跌幅收窄，第四季旅遊旺季收入料重拾動能 公司首三季收入為 398.62 億元人民幣，按年跌 7.3%，純利為 30.52 億元人民幣，按年跌 22.1%，單計第三季收入 117.11 億元人民幣，按 年微跌 0.4%，跌幅較上半年的 10%收窄。海南離島免稅 7 至 9 月銷 售額合計 54.02 億元人民幣，按年跌 2.6%，按年降幅較 4 至 6 月收窄 1.6 個百分點，其中 9 月海南離島免稅月度銷售額按年增長 3.4%，在 同期低基數下錄得 18 個月以來首次增長 ，公司第三季收入表現優於 海南全島。海南旅遊旺季推動下，10 月至 11 月離島免稅銷售均錄雙 位數按年增長，新增城市市內免稅店下半年集中開業，加上免稅政策 利好，第四季收入料重拾增長。 海南封關首月數據強勁，春節假期數據料成潛化劑 海南自由貿易港自 2025 年 12 月 18 日正式啟動全島封關運作，免稅 優惠對象擴大至所有自海南島離境的旅客，早期「離島免稅」主要面 向從海南飛往內地其他地區的旅客，重點是境內旅客，最新安排則可 覆蓋國內外旅客。而每名 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.3, representing a potential upside of 9% from the current stock price of HKD 2.08 [1][6]. Core Insights - The domestic milk powder business continues to face pressure due to a significant decline in the birth rate, with the 2025 birth population projected at 79.2 million, a 17% year-on-year decrease [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.89 billion for the first half of 2025, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 181 million, up 21.4% year-on-year, driven by overseas goat milk powder sales [2][3]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 41.9%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, with goat milk powder and cow milk powder margins also declining [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 2.5 billion, RMB 2.6 billion, and RMB 2.9 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of HKD 0.16, HKD 0.16, and HKD 0.18 [1][4]. - The company’s financial performance shows a decline in domestic goat milk powder revenue by 8.9% and cow milk powder revenue by 14.9% in the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is estimated at 11.7x, with the company assigned a P/E of 13x due to its overseas business development [12]. Valuation Analysis - The DCF valuation method estimates a reasonable market value of HKD 2.4 based on a WACC of 7.2% and a short-term growth rate of 4% [12]. - The target price of HKD 2.3 is derived from a combination of comparable company analysis and DCF valuation, indicating a potential upside from the current market price [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 25.24 and a fair value of HKD 27.14 [8]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant internal growth, particularly in its self-operated products, which are expected to continue expanding [2]. - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 2.312 billion for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.72%, and a notable 17% growth when excluding revenue from a specific live-streaming partnership [13]. - The gross profit margin increased by 2.8 percentage points to 36.4%, driven by a rise in self-operated product revenue, which grew by 18.1% to RMB 2 billion, accounting for 52.8% of the total GMV [14]. Summary by Sections 1. FY26H1 Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 2.312 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.72%. Excluding the impact of a specific partnership, the revenue growth was 17% [13]. - The net profit reached RMB 239 million, marking a return to profitability [13]. 2. Main Business Tracking - Self-operated products have expanded significantly, with SKU numbers exceeding 800, becoming a major component of GMV [21]. - The self-operated app's revenue increased from RMB 500 million in FY25H1 to RMB 600 million in FY26H1, indicating a growing preference for self-operated products among paid members [31]. - The company is actively expanding its presence on Douyin (TikTok) with multiple specialized accounts to cover various consumer needs [37]. 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 4.978 billion and adjusted net profits of RMB 492 million for the fiscal year 2026 [43]. - The report suggests a PE valuation of 52X for the company, leading to a fair market value of RMB 255.81 billion, or HKD 27.14 per share, maintaining the "Buy" rating [43].