上 市 公 司 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 02 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.33 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7946.81 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 9.58/1.08 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 355.03 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,805.28 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0863 | 公 计算机 2025 年 02 月 11 日 金山云 (03896) ——金山小米生态核心云厂，AI+智驾乘风而上 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -15% 985% 02/14 03/14 04/14 05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14 12/14 01/14 HSCEI 金山云 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) [2][4] Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in RSV of 14.2% in FY2025Q3, but the sales decline has narrowed compared to Q2. The decline in mainland RSV was 13%, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a decline of 20.4% [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with a notable increase in the sales proportion of high-margin, well-designed gold products, which rose from 6.9% to 18.7% [1] - The company is undergoing a net store closure strategy, with 261 stores closed in mainland China by the end of December 2024, emphasizing the importance of single-store operations [1] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to decline by 16.3% in FY2025, with a projected net profit decrease of approximately 5% [2] - The company’s revenue for FY2025 is estimated at 91.03 billion HKD, with a net profit of 6.15 billion HKD [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is 0.62 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 times [3][4] Sales Performance - In FY2025Q3, the mainland's same-store sales declined by 16.1% for direct stores and 12.3% for franchise stores, indicating a better performance for franchises due to faster operational efficiency improvements [1] - In Hong Kong and Macau, same-store sales for jewelry embedded products increased by 33.7%, while gold products saw a decline of 36.2% [1] Store Operations - As of December 2024, Chow Tai Fook operated a total of 6,836 stores globally, with 6,685 in mainland China, 86 in Hong Kong and Macau, and 65 in other markets [1] - The company continues to focus on rectifying underperforming stores in response to the fluctuating consumer environment [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $11.303 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit of $911 million, up 10% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, the revenue was $2.595 billion, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of $115 million, up 18% year-on-year [1][10] - The company continues to expand its store count, reaching a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, with net additions of 1,751 stores for the year [2] - Same-store sales showed improvement, with a decline of only 1% in Q4 2024 compared to the same period last year, marking a continuous quarter-on-quarter improvement since Q2 2024 [3] - The company has seen significant growth in its delivery sales, which increased by 14% year-on-year in Q4 2024, and digital order revenue reached $9.6 billion, accounting for 90% of restaurant revenue [4] - The company plans to continue its store expansion, targeting an additional 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with an increasing proportion of franchise stores [5][10] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of $11,303 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3% [11] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $11,820 million, $12,655 million, and $13,639 million, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $937 million, $1,015 million, and $1,114 million [11] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 19.2x, 17.7x, and 16.2x, respectively [10][11]

房地产/房地产开发 绿城中国（03900.HK） 2025 年 02 月 11 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/2/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 9.060 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 11.720/4.940 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 229.60 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 229.60 | | 总股本(亿股) | 25.34 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 25.34 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 19.89 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 绿城中国 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《销售拿地表现亮眼，行业排名持续 攀 升 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.1.10 《公开市场拿地稳健积极，销售均价 显著提升—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.12.9 减值影响业绩表现，拿地强度维持高位 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨光大环境（0257.HK） [Table_Title] 光大环境跟踪点评：运营业务稳定，减值对业绩 或仍有拖累 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年公司资本开支进一步下降，工程收入下行带来收入结构改善，后续业绩稳定性更强。 绿色环保发布业绩预告，预计 2024 年亏损 5.0-5.1 亿港币，预计光大环境 2024 年业绩受减值 影响拖累仍存。公司全年现金流转正预期充分， 中报每股分红维持稳定（分红比例所有提升）， 持续兑现分红逻辑。多重固废协同处置成为趋势，供热化改造也将带来业绩增量。无需过多担 心行业现金流。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490518070001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BUZ393 徐科 任楠 贾少波 李博文 盛意 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 光大环境（0257.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in adjusted net profit of approximately 52-60% year-on-year for 2024, translating to about 560-589 million RMB, driven by rapid growth in revenue from AI-driven imaging and design products [1]. - The company's AI applications are enhancing product capabilities and driving user engagement, with 41% of monthly active users utilizing generative AI features in July 2024 [3]. - The company has sold all its cryptocurrency holdings, realizing a profit of approximately 79.63 million USD (about 571 million RMB), with plans to distribute around 80% of the net proceeds as special dividends [3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,085 million RMB in 2022 to 5,572 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.2% to 21.4% over the forecast period [4]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 111 million RMB in 2022 to 1,109 million RMB by 2026, reflecting a substantial growth trajectory [4]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.02 RMB in 2022 to 0.24 RMB in 2026, indicating improved profitability [4]. AI Product Development - The company launched its MiracleVision AI model in June 2023, which has undergone continuous updates, including enhancements in video generation capabilities [2]. - The company is leveraging partnerships with third-party AI models to enhance its product offerings, indicating a strategic approach to AI development [2]. Market Position - The company ranks third in the online design sector in China with its native AI product, Meitu Design Studio, which is expected to double its revenue to over 200 million RMB in 2024 [3]. - The report highlights the company's potential to capture market share in both lifestyle and productivity application segments as the AIGC (AI Generated Content) market is still in its early stages in China [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report suggests a positive outlook on the company's growth potential and market position. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading global kitchenware brand, with strong online presence and product capabilities supporting category expansion. It has established a solid brand foundation in major markets, achieving impressive net profit growth of +242.9% in 2022, +118.0% in 2023, and +58.4% in Q1 2024 [2][3]. - The company’s brand business generated revenue of 1.38 billion (87.2% of total revenue) in 2023, with the US market contributing 740 million (46.8% of total revenue). The company has entered Walmart's offline channels, which is expected to enhance its growth trajectory and brand recognition [2][3]. - The company is adopting region-specific strategies in China, Western Europe, and Japan to create incremental growth. In China, it plans to leverage platforms like Tmall and expand into JD and Douyin. In Western Europe, a tailored approach is anticipated due to diverse consumer environments, while in Japan, partnerships with local wholesalers are being pursued [3]. - The company is focusing on its core cookware category while efficiently launching new products in other categories such as knives and thermos cups, leveraging its product development expertise [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financial performance includes revenues of 1.583 billion in 2023, expected to grow to 3.872 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 33% [6][9]. - The net profit is forecasted to increase from 237 million in 2023 to 582 million by 2026, with a corresponding P/E ratio decreasing from 9.0X in 2024 to 5.4X in 2026 [6][9]. - Key financial metrics indicate a significant improvement in profitability, with net profit margins projected to remain robust, and return on equity (ROE) expected to decline from 106.5% in 2023 to 36.25% in 2026 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company, Maogeping, is a rare high-end domestic beauty brand in China, leveraging the unique IP of national makeup master Maogeping. The brand covers both makeup and skincare categories, with a broad potential customer base and a commitment to long-term brand strength enhancement. The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.88 billion, 5.06 billion, and 6.29 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.5%, 30.3%, and 24.3% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 880 million, 1.17 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan, with growth rates of 33.3%, 32.6%, and 24.7% respectively [3][4][12]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 2.886 billion yuan in 2023, with an expected increase to 3.882 billion yuan in 2024, 5.060 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.291 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 57.78%, 34.52%, 30.33%, and 24.33% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 662 million yuan in 2023 to 882 million yuan in 2024, 1.170 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.458 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 88.00%, 33.30%, 32.57%, and 24.66% respectively [4][5][12]. Business Model and Market Position - Maogeping's business model is unique, combining personal IP, a makeup school, and offline services. The company operates two major beauty brands, Maogeping and Ziai Zhongsheng, with a strong presence in both offline department stores and online platforms. The offline channel contributes significantly to revenue, with 372 self-operated counters nationwide, ranking second among all beauty brands in China [3][19][20]. Industry Overview - The beauty and personal care market in China is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, with overall market growth slowing from a CAGR of 11% (2015-2019) to 3% (2019-2023). The skincare segment remains dominant, accounting for 51% of the market, while the makeup segment represents 11% [29][30]. The high-end beauty market is growing faster than the mass market, with a CAGR of 15% compared to 4% for mass products [22][24]. Competitive Landscape - The high-end cosmetics market is primarily dominated by international brands, which hold a significant market share. However, domestic brands like Maogeping are gradually increasing their presence, with the market share of leading domestic skincare brands rising from 6.5% in 2014 to 13.5% in 2023 [22][31]. The report highlights that brand strength and emotional connection are critical barriers to entry in this competitive landscape [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) with a target price of $61.5, representing a potential upside of 27.1% from the current price of $48.4 [2][24]. Core Insights - Same-store sales performance is identified as a key factor influencing the company's 2025 earnings and stock price. The company anticipates a slight decline in same-store sales for 2024 due to adjustments in customer pricing to maintain steady traffic. However, operational efficiency improvements are expected to offset the negative leverage impact, allowing for slight margin expansion [1][4]. - The management's cautious outlook for 2025 reflects uncertainties in same-store performance, which is expected to significantly impact restaurant profit margins. The company aims for systematic revenue growth in the mid-single digits for 2025, with a target of opening 1,600-1,800 new stores [4][6]. - The competitive landscape is observed to be stabilizing, with some industry players reducing discounts and slightly increasing menu prices. Yum China plans to maintain stable pricing for KFC while lowering prices for Pizza Hut to attract more customers [4][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Yum China are as follows: - 2023: $10,978 million - 2024: $11,303 million (3.0% growth) - 2025: $11,720 million (3.7% growth) - 2026: $12,509 million (6.7% growth) - 2027: $13,281 million (6.2% growth) [6][9]. - Net profit estimates are projected as: - 2023: $827 million - 2024: $911 million (10.2% growth) - 2025: $924 million (1.4% growth) - 2026: $996 million (7.8% growth) - 2027: $1,099 million (10.4% growth) [6][9]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Yum China is approximately $18,253 million, with an average daily trading volume of $102.9 million over the past three months [2][4]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of $28.5 to $52.0, indicating significant volatility [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $55 for US shares and HK$43 for Hong Kong shares, indicating a potential upside of 100% from the current price [5][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve product net revenues of $104 million in Q4 2024 and $394 million for the full year 2024, primarily driven by the continued growth of Aigamod [2][3]. - Aigamod is projected to generate approximately $91 million in sales for the year 2024, surpassing the previous guidance of $80 million [3]. - The company aims to achieve profitability by the end of 2025, with significant catalysts expected in 2025, including the launch of Aigamod, DLL3 ADC data readouts, and potential overseas licensing agreements [1][4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net loss of $250 million for 2024, with a Q4 net loss of $63 million, while the gross margin is expected to be around 63.6% for the year [2][14]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from $394 million in 2024 to $538 million in 2025, with a further increase to $801 million in 2026 [15][17]. - The company anticipates a decrease in R&D expenses in 2024 compared to 2023, while sales and administrative expenses are expected to rise slightly [2][14]. Product Pipeline and Catalysts - DLL3 ADC (ZL-1310) is on track for multiple Phase 1 data readouts in 2025, which could lead to potential overseas licensing agreements [4][5]. - The company plans to submit NDAs for six additional drugs in China in 2025, including KarXT and TIVDAK, with significant clinical data readouts expected [5][13]. - Aigamod's commercialization team is expected to remain stable at around 170 personnel, supporting its growth trajectory [3][5].