纺织服饰/纺织制造 申洲国际（02313.HK） 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 申洲国际 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《2024H1 量增亮眼单价承压，毛利率 修复超预期—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.30 《全年毛利率逐季改善，期待 2024 年 盈利能力再向上—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2024.3.29 毛利率修复下核心利润亮眼，海外持续扩产提效 ——港股公司信息更新报告 2025 年 03 月 27 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 62.300 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 86.900/54.800 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 936.51 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 936.51 | | 总股本(亿股) | 15.03 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 15.03 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 23.55 | 股价走势图 | 吕明（分析师） | 周嘉乐（分析师） | 张霜凝（分析师） | | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][21] Core Insights - The company reported record high revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 28.663 billion RMB (up 14.8% YoY) and net profit at 6.241 billion RMB (up 36.9% YoY) [7][10] - Strong cash position with over 25 billion RMB in cash and cash equivalents, and a proposed total dividend of 2.53 HKD per share, yielding over 4% based on the stock price [7][10] - The company is experiencing high growth in orders from Uniqlo, particularly in leisure and Japanese markets, with expectations of a gradual return to sports categories in 2025 [7][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 31.779 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 11% [6] - Expected net profit for 2025 is 6.606 billion RMB, reflecting a 6% increase [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to stabilize around 28% in the coming years, with a net profit margin of 21.8% for 2024 [6][11] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 62.30 HKD, with a market capitalization of 936.51 billion HKD [2] - The stock has shown a performance of -13% over the past year compared to the HSCEI index, which increased by 37% [4][5] Operational Highlights - The company is expanding its production capacity with new factories in Cambodia and Vietnam, indicating strong growth potential [7][10] - The order structure is expected to improve gross margins, which have already increased to 28.1% in 2024 [7][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Pop Mart International [2][9][15] Core Views - The company achieved record revenue and profit, with revenue expected to approach RMB 100 billion [1][3] - The company is projected to continue strong growth, with revenue expected to exceed RMB 200 billion in 2025, driven by both domestic and international markets [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, revenue reached RMB 13.04 billion, a 107% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit margin of 66.8%, up 5.5 percentage points [3][14] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 3.4 billion, reflecting a 186% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit margin of 26.1% [3][14] - The company expects revenue for 2025 to be RMB 22.1 billion, a 69% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit to reach RMB 6.3 billion, an 86% increase [9][15] Domestic Business Summary - Domestic revenue was RMB 7.97 billion, up 52% year-on-year, with significant growth in both offline and online channels [4][14] - The number of retail stores increased to 401, with a net addition of 38 stores [4][14] - Online sales grew by 77%, driven by increased customer engagement across various platforms [4][14] International Business Summary - International revenue surged to RMB 5.07 billion, a 375% increase year-on-year, with overseas revenue accounting for 39% of total revenue [5][14] - The company expanded its international presence, adding 50 retail stores and entering new markets including Vietnam, Indonesia, and Italy [5][14] - The gross profit margin for international operations was 71.3%, exceeding domestic levels [5][14] IP Development and Membership Growth - The company reported strong performance from its IPs, with revenue from major IPs exceeding RMB 1 billion each [7][14] - Membership numbers reached 46.08 million, a 34% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to sales [7][14] Theme Park Business Summary - The theme park segment exceeded expectations in revenue and profitability, attracting a diverse visitor demographic [8][14] - The company plans to upgrade two-thirds of the park's area and initiate a second phase of construction by 2026 [8][14] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects adjusted net profit margins to improve to 28.6% in 2025 and 30.9% by 2027 [9][15] - The target price for the stock is set at HKD 158.2, based on a 30x PE valuation for FY25 [9][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue growth of 0.5% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 428.96 billion yuan and a net profit of 121.23 billion yuan, also up by 0.4% [1]. - The packaging water business faced a significant decline in the second half of 2024, with revenue dropping by 24.4% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing public relations issues and increased promotional spending [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to see a recovery in the packaging water sector in 2025, driven by a decrease in price competition and improved profitability [3]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company's gross margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 58.1%, primarily due to increased promotional activities and rising raw material costs [3]. - The company’s net profit margin remained stable at 28.3% in 2024, with a slight reduction in sales and administrative expense ratios [3]. - Forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.25, 1.42, and 1.59 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25x, 22x, and 20x [3]. Market Data - The target price for the stock is set at 40.72 HKD, with the current closing price at 33.70 HKD, indicating potential upside [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 379 billion HKD [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (6862.HK) with a current price of HKD 17.62 [1] Core Insights - Haidilao's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of HKD 427.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of HKD 47.1 billion, up 4.6% year-on-year. In the second half of 2024, revenue was HKD 212.6 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit was HKD 26.7 billion, up 19.1% year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Haidilao's restaurant operations, takeaway business, seasoning products, and other sales generated revenues of HKD 403.98 billion, HKD 12.54 billion, HKD 5.75 billion, and HKD 4.83 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 20.4%, -27.1%, and 39.6% [5] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, up from 3.8 times per day in 2023 [6] - The overall customer unit price for 2024 was HKD 97.5, slightly down from HKD 99.1 in 2023, but the second half of 2024 saw a recovery in unit price [6] Cost Structure - In the second half of 2024, the net profit margin improved to 12.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs, which accounted for 36.8% of revenue [6] - For the full year 2024, raw material costs accounted for 37.9% of revenue, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [7] Strategic Initiatives - Haidilao launched the "Pomegranate Plan," which includes 11 sub-brands, aiming to diversify its offerings and enhance customer engagement [8] - The company plans to increase the number of main brand stores (including franchises) in 2025, focusing on third-tier cities and below [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for Haidilao are adjusted to HKD 53.55 billion and HKD 59.71 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of HKD 65.15 billion [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a 2025 P/E ratio of 17x, indicating a mature single-store model and strong brand momentum [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 187.046 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.96 billion yuan, an increase of 4.89% year-on-year. The company declared a dividend of 0.3158 yuan per share, with a core profit payout ratio of 43% [7] - Retail gas volume continues to grow significantly, with retail gas volume increasing by 8.1% year-on-year to 32.8 billion cubic meters. The company expects an 8% growth in retail gas volume for 2025, with an addition of 600,000 to 700,000 new users [7] - The company has a solid cash flow position, with operating cash flow of 12.585 billion yuan and free cash flow of 7.044 billion yuan in 2024. The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase to 45% in 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.2% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 187.046 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 5.24% for the following years [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 6.147 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.14% [8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.71 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.16 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.75 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year. In the second half of 2024, revenue was 21.26 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 19.1% to 2.67 billion yuan [4][5] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, compared to 3.8 times in 2023, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6] - The company launched the "Pomegranate Plan," which includes 11 new restaurant brands, contributing to revenue diversification and growth [8] Revenue and Profit Structure - In 2024, the revenue breakdown was as follows: restaurant operations generated 40.398 billion yuan, delivery services 1.254 billion yuan, seasoning products and other sales 0.575 billion yuan, and other restaurant operations 0.483 billion yuan [5] - The company experienced a net decrease of 6 stores in 2024, ending the year with 1,368 locations [5] Cost Structure and Profitability - In the second half of 2024, the cost of raw materials accounted for 36.8% of revenue, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an improved net profit margin of 12.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] - The overall net profit margin for 2024 was 11.0%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to achieve a mid-single-digit growth in the number of new stores in 2025, focusing on expansion in lower-tier cities [9] - The successful operation of the "Pomegranate Plan" and the expansion of the "Flame Grilled Meat Shop" brand are expected to drive further revenue growth [9] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.355 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 13.7% [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.96 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17x based on the current stock price [9][10]

第三方稳健增长，股东回报可观 消费品/食品饮料 24 年公司营收/归母净利润分别实现 65.4/7.4 亿，同比 +6.4%/-13.3%，公司 收入端第三方业务实现反弹带动增长，但关联方业务受需求及价格影响对业绩 有所拖累。利润端受公司促销加大、关联方价格调整等因素影响下滑。H2 公司 收入/归母净利润分别实现 36.1/4.3 亿，同比+2.3%/-12.9%。25 年看，第三方 业务随着渠道精耕及新品研发等战略落地，有望保持增长势头，关联方业务仍 有压力期待改善。此外，公司加大对于 B 端及海外市场的拓展力度，寻求增量 贡献。同时，公司短期无重大资本开支，分红率有望维持高位，股东回报可观。 当前行业格局已逐步稳定，虽然复苏期竞争仍激烈，但公司品牌优势领先，产 品及渠道不断完善，未来渗透市场提升份额仍有空间。我们给予 25-27 年 EPS 预期为 0.78、0.86、0.96 元，对应 25 年估值 17X，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：14.36 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1037 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1037 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by the strong growth of its collagen stick product and the ramp-up of new products in the focus series, alongside the growth of its star product, Keli Jin [3][9]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new products in its cosmetics business, which is expected to contribute to future growth [3][9]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 55.39 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 57%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 21.51 billion RMB, up 47% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 20.62 billion RMB, a 42% increase [9]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 82.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to faster growth in the skincare segment compared to the medical device segment [9]. - The company’s sales expense ratio is expected to be 36.26%, an increase of 3.21 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of online sales [9]. - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 37.2% for 2024, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, due to changes in channel and product structure [9]. Product and Brand Performance - The company’s star product, the collagen stick, maintains strong momentum, with significant contributions from new products and brand expansion. The focus series cream has generated over 200 million RMB in revenue, indicating successful product structure optimization [9]. - The Keli Jin brand is expected to see accelerated growth in the second half of 2024, benefiting from the strong performance of its flagship products [9]. - The company has a diverse product line and brand portfolio, which is expected to sustain rapid growth through continuous new product incubation [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 6.54 billion and 739.43 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.24% and a decline of 13.28% respectively [7] - Third-party sales continue to grow, driven by products like crayfish, while the overall average price has slightly decreased due to the introduction of high-cost performance products [7] - The company is expected to maintain low double-digit growth in third-party revenue in 2025, with potential improvement in related party performance [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6.54 billion RMB in 2024 to 8.64 billion RMB in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.24%, 10.76%, 9.96%, and 8.46% respectively [1][8] - Net profit is forecasted to decline to 739.43 million RMB in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1.09 billion RMB by 2027, with growth rates of -13.28%, 19.64%, 11.74%, and 10.05% respectively [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.71 RMB in 2024, increasing to 1.05 RMB by 2027 [1][8] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 18.23x in 2024, decreasing to 12.39x by 2027 [1][8]