Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Sinofert Holdings, with a target price of HKD 1.84 based on a PE of 8.5x for FY26 [3][13]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, Sinofert Holdings achieved a net profit of approximately CNY 1.364 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% despite challenges such as high raw material costs and declining synthetic ammonia market prices [1][15]. - The company is actively promoting its "Bio+" strategy, which focuses on the development and innovation of biological products, resulting in significant sales growth of high-end biological fertilizers [2][12]. - A memorandum of cooperation was renewed with the Jordanian Arab Potash Company (APC) for the period 2026-2028, enhancing the strategic partnership and ensuring stable supply of potash fertilizers in China [1][15]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The projected net profits for Sinofert Holdings from 2025 to 2027 are CNY 1.263 billion, CNY 1.384 billion, and CNY 1.547 billion, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3][4]. - The company's operating revenue is expected to grow from CNY 212.65 billion in 2024 to CNY 267.23 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.15 in 2024 to CNY 0.22 in 2027, reflecting the company's improving profitability [4][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 91.08 [1][5]. Core Insights - The Phase I clinical results of CM512, a dual antibody targeting TSLP/IL-13 for treating atopic dermatitis (AD), show promising efficacy and safety, outperforming the placebo group significantly [2][3]. - CM512 demonstrates a long half-life of 70 days, indicating potential for extended dosing intervals, and has shown rapid onset of action with a 50% EASI-75 response at 6 weeks in the 300mg dose group [2][4]. - The clinical data suggests that CM512 has competitive advantages over current standard therapies and other monoclonal antibodies, particularly in achieving deep remission [3][4]. Summary by Sections Clinical Results - The Phase I trial included 64 healthy participants and 46 moderate to severe AD patients, showing comparable rates of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAE) and serious adverse events (SAE) between the trial and control groups [2]. - The 300mg dose group achieved EASI-75/90 rates of 58.3% and 41.7% at 12 weeks, significantly better than the placebo's 21.4% and 0% [2][3]. Competitive Landscape - CM512's EASI-90 response rate of 41.7% is superior to other treatments, including IL-4Rα monoclonal antibodies and small molecule drugs, indicating its potential as a best-in-class (BIC) therapy [3][4]. - Comparatively, other therapies like dupilumab and lebrikizumab have lower EASI-90 rates, reinforcing CM512's competitive edge [3][4]. Future Development - The company is expanding CM512's indications beyond AD, with ongoing Phase II trials for asthma, COPD, and chronic spontaneous urticaria, leveraging its long-acting profile [4]. - The potential for collaboration and further development in international markets is promising, given the initial efficacy data and competitive advantages [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company have been adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 570.96 million in 2025 and RMB 1,554 million by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [5][9]. - Net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised to -679.40 million, -669.87 million, and -282.40 million respectively, indicating ongoing investment in R&D and market expansion [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in operations with a steady same-store sales growth and effective cost management, leading to a solid performance in Q3 2025 [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $3.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4%, while operating profit was $400 million, up 8% year-over-year, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1] - The operating profit margin improved to 12.5%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase year-over-year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $282 million, down 5% year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in Meituan's stock price; excluding investment losses, net profit increased by 7% year-over-year [1] Store Expansion and Brand Performance - The company added a record 536 new stores in Q3, with a total of 17,514 stores by the end of the quarter, including 12,640 KFC and 4,022 Pizza Hut locations [3] - The same-store sales growth for KFC was 2%, while Pizza Hut saw a 1% increase, with delivery sales growing by 32% year-over-year [2][3] Shareholder Returns - The company returned a total of $414 million to shareholders in Q3, with a total of $950 million returned in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] - The company plans to return approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders for the full year, maintaining guidance for $3 billion in shareholder returns for 2025-2026 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to $908 million, $986 million, and $1.049 billion, respectively, reflecting a slight downward revision [5] - The target price is adjusted to HKD 413.59, corresponding to a 2026 PE ratio of 18 times [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company leverages gene editing technology to create a comprehensive antibody drug development platform, focusing on innovative solutions [2][16]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue CAGR of over 40% from 2021 to 2024, and is expected to turn profitable in 2024 [28][30]. - The antibody development business is a key driver of growth, with a revenue CAGR of 53% from 2021 to 2024 [5][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2009, the company has developed a full human antibody library using its proprietary RenMice® platform, launching the "Thousand Mice, Ten Thousand Antibodies" initiative in 2020 [3][17]. - The company has created over 1 million full human antibody sequences targeting more than 1,000 potential drug targets [3][17]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 621 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.3%, with a gross margin of 74.4% [3][30]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 14.2 billion yuan, 19.3 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 323%, 103%, and 75% respectively [6][8]. Business Segments - The preclinical animal products and pharmacological services provide a stable foundation, with model animal sales reaching 274 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 56% increase year-on-year [4][34]. - The antibody development business has become the core driver of performance, with 163 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, a 38% increase year-on-year [5][34]. Market Position - The company has established partnerships with the top ten global pharmaceutical companies, leveraging its expertise in gene editing and model animals [4][21]. - The antibody drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with the global antibody drug market projected to reach 2.704 trillion USD in 2024, growing to 4.634 trillion USD by 2031 [47][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (09987.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5][22]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $3.206 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. Operating profit rose by 7.8% to $400 million, driven by improved restaurant operational efficiency. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.1% to $282 million due to pre-tax investment losses of approximately $10 million [1][8]. - Same-store sales showed resilience with a 1% increase overall, while KFC and Pizza Hut reported increases of 2% and 1%, respectively. KFC's transaction volume increased by 3%, while Pizza Hut's transaction volume grew by 17% despite a decline in average ticket price [2][12]. - The company opened 536 new stores in Q3 2025, maintaining its annual target of 1,600 to 1,800 new stores. The total number of stores reached 17,514, with a growing proportion of franchise stores [3][14]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company forecasts net profit of $927 million, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at $2.62. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is estimated to be 17.1x [4][21]. - The operating margin for Q3 2025 was 16.0% for KFC and 8.9% for Pizza Hut, reflecting a slight improvement year-on-year [1][8]. - The company plans to return approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, with ongoing stock buybacks and dividends [21][22]. Operational Efficiency - The company has seen continuous improvement in operational efficiency, with employee benefits accounting for 26.2% of costs, while food costs decreased to 31.3% [3][18]. - The membership program has grown to 575 million members, with member sales accounting for 57% of total sales [14][21]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on innovation with the expansion of its coffee brand and the introduction of new store formats, such as K pro, which has already reached 100 locations [21]. - The outlook for same-store sales remains positive, driven by ongoing product innovation and expansion plans [21][22].

2025 年 11 月 5 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 贝克微 (2149 HK) 贝克微 (2149 HK) - 纳入恒生半 整、四季度定价能力提升；重申 纳入恒生半导体指数、进行分销商战略性调整、四 "买入"评级 季度定价能力提升；重申"买入"评级 恒生指数正式将"恒生资讯科技业指数"更名为"恒生半导体行业主题指数"，并将 贝克微（2149 HK）纳入成份股，自 2025 年 11 月 7 日起生效。我们认为这将为 贝克微带来结构性利好，公司将有望受益于潜在被动资金流入提升市场流动性的 同时，吸引主动管理型基金的关注。重申"买入"评级；目标价维持 93 港元不变， 基于 26.6 倍 2025 年预测市盈率。 | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 464 | 579 | 672 | 841 | 1,046 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.6 | 24.8 | 16.1 | 25.1 | 24. ...

整、四季度定价能力提升；重申 纳入恒生半导体指数、进行分销商战略性调整、四 "买入"评级 季度定价能力提升；重申"买入"评级 恒生指数正式将"恒生资讯科技业指数"更名为"恒生半导体行业主题指数"，并将 贝克微（2149 HK）纳入成份股，自 2025 年 11 月 7 日起生效。我们认为这将为 贝克微带来结构性利好，公司将有望受益于潜在被动资金流入提升市场流动性的 同时，吸引主动管理型基金的关注。重申"买入"评级；目标价维持 93 港元不变， 基于 26.6 倍 2025 年预测市盈率。 | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 464 | 579 | 672 | 841 | 1,046 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.6 | 24.8 | 16.1 | 25.1 | 24.4 | | 毛利率 (%) | 55.4 | 53.0 | 52.4 | 52.4 | 52.4 | | 运营利润 (百万人民币) | 113.4 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 55.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.9% from the current price of HKD 45.88 [4][8][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that K12 education may accelerate, boosting shareholder returns and enhancing confidence in the company's growth prospects [2]. - Financial forecasts indicate a revenue growth trajectory, with expected revenues of USD 4.9 billion in 2025, growing to USD 6.875 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [3][16]. - The net profit is projected to increase from USD 372 million in 2025 to USD 792 million by 2028, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from USD 0.32 in 2025 to USD 0.45 in 2028 [3][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million USD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 4,314 - 2025: 4,900 - 2026E: 5,413 - 2027E: 6,136 - 2028E: 6,875 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 43.9% in 2024, 13.6% in 2025, and gradually declining to 12.0% by 2028 [3][16]. - Net profit (in million USD) projections are: - 2024: 310 - 2025: 372 - 2026E: 428 - 2027E: 481 - 2028E: 792 [3][16]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x for K12 business and 8x for study abroad business, reflecting expected profit growth rates of +25% and -7% respectively [7][8]. - The target price was adjusted upwards to HKD 55.00 from a previous HKD 46.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the strong demand and growth outlook for K12 education services [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) with a target price of HKD 2.24 [2][8]. Core Insights - Jiumaojiu's same-store sales have shown improvement over three consecutive quarters, with Taier's same-store daily sales declining by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 19.0% decline in the first half of the year. The other brands, Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu, also showed reduced declines of 19.1% and 14.8% respectively [2][8]. - The company is actively implementing its "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrades, with 106 locations operational by the end of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by year-end, reinforcing its strategy of fresh ingredients [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 6,074 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%. However, a decline of 9.1% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 9.4% and 7.7% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 56 million in 2024, with a dramatic increase to HKD 150 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 168.7%. This trend continues with projected profits of HKD 204 million and HKD 242 million in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from HKD 0.04 in 2024 to HKD 0.11 in 2025, and further to HKD 0.15 and HKD 0.17 in the following years [4][9]. Operational Insights - The total number of restaurants, including franchises, reached 686 by September 30, 2025, with Taier accounting for 530 locations [8]. - The average table turnover rate for Taier was 3.3, with stable average spending per customer at HKD 74 for Taier and HKD 100 for Song Hotpot [8]. - The strategic focus has shifted from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, moving away from price competition [8]. Growth Drivers - The core growth driver is the accelerated rollout of the "5.0 Fresh Model," which is expected to enhance brand positioning and customer experience [8]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting increased confidence in its operational strategy and market recovery [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [11] Core Insights - The company is positioned for a valuation re-rating in the AI era, driven by a strong new vehicle cycle and advancements in AI technology. The expectation is for multiple new models to launch in 2025, enhancing sales and profitability. The combination of scale, cost reduction from platform and technology, and expansion into software profitability and international markets provides significant earnings flexibility [3][9][16]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Valuation in the AI Era - Historically, the company's valuation primarily considered automotive business expectations, neglecting AI-related aspects such as smart driving, Robotaxi, robots, and flying cars. The price-to-sales (PS) ratio has been in the range of 1.5-2 times, while Tesla's PS exceeds 10 times, reflecting its strong AI application valuation. The company is transitioning to a global AI automotive firm, aiming to create an AI ecosystem encompassing AI cars, robots, and flying vehicles, which could significantly enhance its valuation potential [6][16]. AI Pricing Potential Compared to Tesla - Tesla's valuation is significantly higher than traditional automakers, with a dynamic PE midpoint of approximately 135.06 and an actual dynamic PE of 230.22. The valuation reflects market expectations for Tesla's AI application business. The theoretical dynamic PE for Tesla's various business segments indicates substantial valuation premiums for its AI applications, particularly Robotaxi, which accounts for 50% of its valuation [7][17][27]. Deep AI Accumulation and Ecosystem Development - The company has a strong foundation in AI applications and is fully pivoting towards an AI strategy. It aims to become a global AI automotive technology enterprise over the next decade. The core elements supporting this strategy include high-performance chips and large-scale models. The company has established a "three-in-one" intelligent ecosystem that includes AI cars, robots, and flying vehicles. Key developments include: 1. Smart Driving and Robotaxi: Plans to launch L4 autonomous vehicles and initiate Robotaxi trials in 2026 [8][9]. 2. AI Robots: The next-generation robot is expected to be unveiled soon, with mass production targeted for 2026 [8]. 3. Flying Cars: The company leads in flying car development, with a significant order backlog and production capacity set to support large-scale deliveries in 2026 [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a valuation re-rating as AI applications gain traction. The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with projections of 83.1 billion and 135.8 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PS ratios of 1.9X and 1.1X. The overall outlook is positive, supporting the "Buy" rating [9][11].