导 语 ：视频纠正了美国群众的认知，即使是美国消费者认为的高端欧洲品牌，产品也在中国 制造。 特朗普的贸易战在TikTok上"火了"，推动中国电商平台Dhgate登上美国应用商店榜首。 在特朗普将美国对中国进口商品的关税提高145%之后，许多中国供应商和制造商开始制作TikTok视 频，向消费者解释全球奢侈品市场的真实运作方式。这些视频解释说，许多人以为是在欧洲制造的 服装、手袋和其他配饰，实际上都来自中国的工厂。 受这一趋势影响，中国批发电商平台Dhgate的排名飙升，截至周一上午，成为美国应用商店中排名 第三的免费iPhone应用。 作为对比，根据应用情报提供商Appfigures的数据，截至4月11日周五，该应用在美国的非游戏类免 费iPhone应用中排名第352位，随后在周日跃升至第6位，周一达到第3位。周一，Dhgate还在免费 iPhone应用的总排行榜（包括游戏）上攀升至第3位。 该公司向记者表示，4月12日周六，Dhgate应用在应用商店和谷歌商店的下载量达到35400次，比30 天平均值增长了56%。其中，美国占了17300次安装，比30天平均值增长了98%。 4月13日周日，iOS上的安装 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company has exceeded dividend expectations, indicating potential for sustainable growth in the future [1]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 24.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year [6]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency [6]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 3.71, 4.22, and 4.83 yuan respectively, with a target price of 66.51 yuan based on an 18x PE valuation for 2025 [2][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 20.11 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.46 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations, indicating consistent profitability [2][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 4.97 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 16% [6][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline slightly from 22.6% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2027, reflecting a stable but slightly decreasing profitability trend [10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.5 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation as earnings grow [10].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of new trade tariffs by President Trump is expected to impact various sectors of the stock market differently, particularly affecting consumer discretionary stocks due to their reliance on agricultural products and materials that influence retail prices [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Consumer Discretionary Stocks - Consumer discretionary stocks are experiencing significant declines, with market speculation suggesting that prices for everyday products may double or triple due to tariffs [2]. - Major brands like Nike, Lululemon, and Ralph Lauren are highlighted as potential investment opportunities despite the tariff challenges, as their market positions may allow them to weather the storm [3][5]. Group 2: Nike Stock Analysis - Nike's current stock price is $54.44, which is 58% of its 52-week high, with a 12-month price forecast of $86.19, indicating a potential upside of 58.34% [4]. - Institutional investment in Nike has been strong, with $94 million invested in the last quarter, reflecting confidence in the brand's ability to navigate tariff impacts [7]. - Analysts maintain a price target of $87.4 for Nike, suggesting a potential upside of 57.1% from current levels [7]. Group 3: Lululemon Stock Analysis - Lululemon's current stock price is $261.03, with a 12-month price forecast of $371.79, indicating a potential upside of 42.43% [9]. - The brand has maintained a premium valuation with a price-to-book ratio of 7.8x, compared to the discretionary sector's average of 3.9x [10][11]. - Analysts have set a price target of $378.3 for Lululemon, suggesting a potential upside of 43% [12]. Group 4: Ralph Lauren Stock Analysis - Ralph Lauren's current stock price is $197.89, with a 12-month price forecast of $277.43, indicating a potential upside of 40.20% [13]. - Despite an 18% decline in the past month, Ralph Lauren has outperformed Nike and Lululemon, showing resilience in the market [13][14]. - Goldman Sachs has set a price target of $286 for Ralph Lauren, implying a potential upside of 49% from current levels [15].

以下文章来源于正商参阅 ，作者信瀚 正商参阅 . 原《政商参阅》，做价值的传播者！连续两届获评胡润年度影响力财经自媒体、21世纪经济报道年度传 播力财经自媒体、新浪财经、经济观察报年度影响力财经自媒体、新榜年度社会关注新媒体荣誉奖等。 作者： 信瀚 来源： 正商参阅（ID：zhengshangcanyue） 昔日风雨昔日云，彼时云淡彼时殇。 特朗普的关税大棒刚挥出，尚未吓退"外敌"，却先刺痛了自己。 近日，一则重磅消息引爆全球汽车业：拥有 玛莎拉蒂、 Jeep 等 14 个品牌的全球第四大车企 —— Stellantis （斯泰兰蒂斯）突然宣布裁撤 900 名美国工人 ，关闭加拿大和墨西哥两家工 厂，北美生产线陷入瘫痪。 几乎同一时间， 捷豹路虎宣布暂停对美出口一个月，奥迪则扣押 3.7 万辆新车拒绝交付美国经 销商。 最讽刺的是，这场风暴的中心不在海外，而在美国本土消费者和工人的饭碗上。 墨西哥工厂的停工，让美国工人丢了饭碗，欧洲豪车的断供，已让经销商无货可卖，而斯泰兰蒂 斯、捷豹路虎、奥迪们 肯定不会默默承担 25% 的成本，而是将其全部转嫁到价格上。 即便福特、通用等 美国品牌在本土生产，仍有 40% ...

Company Performance - Lululemon's stock closed at $261.03, reflecting a +1.72% change from the previous trading day's close, which lagged behind the S&P 500's gain of 1.81% [1] - Over the past month, Lululemon shares have decreased by 17.13%, while the Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 have lost 7.73% and 6.14%, respectively [1] Upcoming Earnings - Lululemon is expected to report earnings of $2.61 per share, representing a year-over-year growth of 2.76%, with projected revenue of $2.35 billion, indicating a 6.58% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $14.98 per share and revenue at $11.22 billion, reflecting changes of +2.32% and +5.97% from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Lululemon are important as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism regarding the company's profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which considers these estimate changes, currently ranks Lululemon at 3 (Hold), following a 3.53% decline in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [6] Valuation Metrics - Lululemon has a Forward P/E ratio of 17.13, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 11.27 [7] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 2.15, higher than the industry average PEG ratio of 1.58, indicating a higher expected earnings growth rate relative to its price [7] Industry Context - The Textile - Apparel industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 83, placing it in the top 34% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing volatility due to the recent tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, significantly impacting apparel companies like Nike and Lululemon, with contrasting implications for their future performance [1][2]. Nike - Nike has faced a global slowdown, with a 9% year-over-year revenue decline last quarter and a drop in operating margin from 15% to 10.3% over the past few years [3][4]. - The company is heavily reliant on Asian manufacturing, particularly from China and Vietnam, which are now subject to high tariffs, potentially leading to a significant decrease in profit margins and revenue in the U.S. market [4][6]. - Nike's North American division, which generated $1.4 billion in operating income last quarter, is its most profitable segment, and any tariff-related losses could severely impact overall earnings [5]. - Revenue from China has also declined by 17% year-over-year, indicating challenges in replacing lost revenue from other markets [6]. Lululemon - Lululemon has shown stronger performance compared to Nike, with a 13% year-over-year revenue growth to $3.6 billion last quarter and a remarkable 46% increase in China revenue [7]. - The company has maintained a high operating margin of 24%, although tariffs may threaten this in the future [8]. - Lululemon's pricing power allows it to potentially increase prices without losing core customers, which may help mitigate the impact of tariffs [9]. - The brand is currently performing well and is positioned to succeed in various markets, particularly in China, despite the overall consumer slump [10]. Investment Outlook - Both Nike and Lululemon have similar trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, with Nike at 18 and Lululemon at 16.7, but Lululemon is experiencing faster growth [12]. - Lululemon is viewed as a more attractive investment opportunity due to its business momentum and potential for long-term gains, while Nike's declining revenue and profit margins suggest caution [13].

Core Insights - NIKE Inc. and lululemon athletica inc. are competing for dominance in the sportswear and apparel market, with NIKE holding a significant market share and brand recognition, while lululemon focuses on yoga-inspired lifestyle offerings and is expanding rapidly [1][2][4][9] Company Overview NIKE Inc. - NIKE is a global leader in sportswear, with a strong competitive advantage due to its iconic brands, extensive distribution network, and marketing partnerships [4] - The company is implementing strategic initiatives called "Win Now" to address operational challenges and restore growth, including rebuilding wholesale partnerships and accelerating innovation [5][6] - NIKE is focusing on product innovation and a faster development model to respond to consumer trends, with plans for new product launches in fiscal 2025 [7][8] lululemon athletica inc. - lululemon is strengthening its position in the athletic apparel market through an innovation-driven product strategy, with successful recent launches and a strong product pipeline [9][10] - The company has significant growth potential in international markets, with plans for aggressive brand activation and community engagement [10][11] - lululemon projects net sales of $11.15-$11.3 billion for fiscal 2025, indicating a year-over-year growth of 7-8% [11] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE's fiscal 2025 sales and EPS indicates declines of 10.7% and 45.6%, respectively, while lululemon's estimates suggest growth of 6.2% and 3.1% [12][13] - Year-to-date, NIKE shares have declined by 21.7%, while lululemon's stock has lost 28.4% [14] - NIKE's forward P/E multiple is 29.82X, above its three-year median, while lululemon's is 17.91X, below its median [15][18] Investment Outlook - lululemon's discounted valuation and strong growth narrative position it as a more compelling investment compared to NIKE, which is focusing on repositioning for long-term growth [18][21] - Both companies are navigating operational headwinds, but lululemon's financial strength and international growth potential provide a competitive edge [19][20]

* 注意：以下内文中涉及隐藏估值部分，公众号未完全展示，感兴趣的用户可进入长桥 App 后搜索 " 海豚投研 " ，查看同名文章，免费畅读完整内容。 上篇《 LULULEMON：一条黑裤而已，凭什么杀出血路？ 》 我们深入分析了LULU的成功是建立在极致产品力基础上独特的社群营销商业模式，那么站在当下， LULU未来的成长空间如何？是否仍然是值得投资的好标的？本篇海豚君带大家继续探讨： LULU在2022年4月公布了最新的5年增长计划， 目标在2026年实现较2021年翻倍的增长（营收达到125亿美元） 。从具体实现的路径上看，LULU计划 在男装上收 入翻倍，电商上收入翻倍，以及在国际市场上收入翻4倍 ，此外，管理层还针对品类、渠道、市场三个维度进行了更细致的展望，后文我们按照管理层的思路逐个 维度分析LULU未来的成长空间： 重要提示 欢迎用户欢迎 扫描下方二维码加入海豚交流群 ，我们所有的研报文章、调研纪要均会分享在群里，也可以和专业分析师探讨投资观点，分享投资心得。 女装 ： 高增阶段已过，持续优化&创新 。LULU的女装业务从品牌创立至今一直是LULU的核心收入来源，当前收入占比仍超60%。从LUL ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's stock has seen a significant increase of 321% over five years, but it currently trades 52% below its all-time high, raising questions about potential investment opportunities amid slowing growth and macroeconomic challenges [1]. Company Performance - In fiscal 2021, Lululemon reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 42.1%, which has since declined to 10.1% for fiscal 2024 [1]. - The company expects revenue growth of 5% to 7% for the current fiscal year, which, while lower than previous double-digit gains, is still better than the expected decline from competitors like Nike [7]. Macroeconomic Challenges - Consumer confidence has sharply declined, and the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates soon, contributing to a challenging economic environment [2]. - Lululemon sources 40% of its merchandise from Vietnam, where tariff negotiations have created uncertainty for the company [3]. Management Outlook - Lululemon's management has adopted a cautious tone, indicating that consumers are spending less due to inflation and economic concerns [4]. Brand Strength and Profitability - Lululemon has established a strong brand positioned at the premium end of the apparel market, which provides a competitive advantage [5]. - The company has maintained impressive profitability, with average gross and operating margins of 57.3% and 21.8% over the past five years [6]. Valuation Considerations - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.9, which is the lowest in the past decade, reflecting market pessimism [9]. - Despite the slower growth and tariff uncertainties, the current valuation may represent a new reality for investors [8].

| SYMBOL # | NAME + | PRICE * | CHANGE $ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GRAL | Grail Inc | 21.79 | -2.19 | | ON | ON Semiconductor Corp | 32.51 | -2.57 | | LULU | Lululemon Athletica Inc | 246.5 | -18.5 | | MSTR | MicroStrategy (Strategy) | 251.55 | -16.59 | | INTC | Intel Corp | 18.44 | -1.14 | | МСНР | Microchip Technology Inc | 35.88 | -2.21 | | PDD | PDD Holdings Inc | 94.23 | -5.79 | | NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV | 154.8 | -8.49 | | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc | 79.97 | -3.67 | | AAPL | Apple Inc ...