OPEC+ agreed on another bumper oil production increase for September, completing its current tranche of supply revival one year early https://t.co/ZeaNCnG3pg ...

昨夜，中国光伏行业协会发布澄清公告。 中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行 据央视新闻消息，当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典斯 德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。双方就中美经贸关系、宏观经济政策等双方共同关心的经贸议题开展了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流，回顾并肯定了中美 日内瓦经贸会谈共识和伦敦框架落实情况。根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。 何立峰表示，中美双方经贸团队要以两国元首6月5日通话重要共识为指引，秉持相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，尊重各自关切，进一步巩固共 识，加深互信。中方对中美经贸关系的立场是一贯的，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢，双方在经贸领域拥有广泛共同利益和广阔合作空间，中美合则两 利、斗则俱伤。稳定、健康、可持续的中美经贸关系不仅有利于实现各自的发展目标，也有利于促进世界经济的发展与稳定。下一步，双方应继续按照两 国元首通话重要共识，充分发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作，进一步深化对话磋商，不断争取更多双赢结果。 美方表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC asserts that there is no imminent peak oil demand, emphasizing the long-term necessity of oil for the global economy and daily life [3][4] Demand Forecasts - OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecasts downward for the next four years due to lower growth in China, the rise of electric vehicles, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment in OECD countries [3] - The report projects oil demand to average 105 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, increasing to 106.3 million bpd in 2026, 111.6 million bpd in 2029, and reaching 123 million bpd by 2050 [5] Energy Mix - Oil is expected to maintain the largest share in the energy mix at just below 30% by 2050, with the combined share of oil and gas remaining above 50% from 2024 to 2050 [5] - The share of other renewables in the energy mix is projected to rise to 13.5% by 2050, an increase of 10 percentage points from 2024 [5] Regional Demand Growth - India, along with other Asian nations, the Middle East, and Africa, is anticipated to be the primary source of long-term oil demand growth, with a combined increase of 22.4 million bpd from 2024 to 2050, and India alone contributing 8.2 million bpd [6] Contrasting Views - Other organizations, such as the International Energy Agency, predict that global oil demand may peak at 105.6 million bpd in 2029 before experiencing a decline [7] - Some industry experts believe that peak oil demand could occur sooner than expected, potentially within this decade, due to the rapid growth of renewable energy [8] Economic Influences - The future trajectory of oil demand may be influenced by global economic conditions, including the impact of digital technologies and geopolitical factors [11][12] - The ongoing global economic turmoil, such as U.S. tariffs, could alter the demand and supply dynamics for oil and other commodities [12] Long-term Outlook - Despite differing opinions on peak oil demand, hydrocarbons are expected to remain a significant part of the global energy mix for the foreseeable future, although oil may not be as dominant as OPEC anticipates [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - This week, the asphalt fundamentals showed characteristics of increasing supply and weak demand. The supply side saw a week - on - week increase in weekly output and operating rate, while the demand side had a slight increase in shipment volume. The factory inventory decreased slightly, ending the two - week inventory accumulation trend, indicating an increase in traders' willingness to purchase. However, the social inventory increased, and the current asphalt social inventory remains at a high level, with demand awaiting further improvement. - The crude oil market currently lacks obvious drivers, and short - term fluctuations are dominated by news. The EU's sanctions on Russia and the reduction of the price cap on Russian oil are bullish in the short - term sentiment, but have limited impact in the medium - to - long - term. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate strongly. - Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and the futures price mainly fluctuates around crude oil. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes and pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production scheduling and the progress of terminal project construction. It is also suggested to focus on the BU2509 contract in the range of 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton [7][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Abstract - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering the demand growth forecast [6]. - Key data: As of July 16, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.8%, up 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period. As of July 18, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 572,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 761,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week; the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 1.319 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory levels; bearish factors include a cease - fire agreement between Israel and other parties and high supply levels [10]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **Tariff negotiations**: The progress of US tariff negotiations is slow and uncertain. Trump said the US is close to reaching a trade agreement with India and may reach an agreement with Europe, but it's too early to say about Canada. The US - Japan tariff negotiation has no progress, and the US may maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods. The EU - US tariff negotiation has major differences, with core issues such as automobile and agricultural tariffs remaining unresolved [11]. - **Firing Powell incident**: Trump hopes that Fed Chairman Powell will resign, which may trigger investors' doubts about the Fed's independence and lead to the selling of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [12]. - **Fed's "Beige Book"**: The overall sentiment is pessimistic. All 12 regions in the US reported price increases, and enterprises generally felt the cost pressure related to tariffs. The economic outlook is "neutral to slightly pessimistic", and it is speculated that the Fed will continue to "stand still" [12]. - **OPEC and IEA monthly reports**: OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintained the economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. IEA raised the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day and lowered the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day [13]. 3.4 Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of July 18, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 572,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 16, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous statistical period, with significant increases in South China and Shandong. The increase in refinery operating rate was due to a decrease in maintenance plans [14][22]. - **Demand**: As of July 18, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 414,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly shipment volume rebounded and was at a high level this year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 14.55%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week [25][28]. - **Import and export**: In May, domestic asphalt imports were 397,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,100 tons (41.3% increase), and a year - on - year decrease of 61,300 tons (13.37% decrease). The cumulative imports from January to April were 1.3492 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.03%. In May, domestic asphalt exports were 55,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,300 tons. The cumulative exports from January to April were 249,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.62% [37][44]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 761,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons, with a large decrease in Shandong. The social inventory was 1.319 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons. Except for the northwest region, there was a slight inventory increase in other regions [53][60]. - **Spread**: As of July 18, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 524.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46.3 yuan/ton. As of July 16, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.41, and as of July 17, the asphalt basis was 107 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread rebounded this week, mainly due to the weak operation of crude oil prices [67]. 4.后市研判 - The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the futures price mainly fluctuates around crude oil. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes, pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production scheduling and the progress of terminal project construction, and focus on the BU2509 contract in the range of 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton [69].

Saudi Arabia is asking the companies that OPEC uses for independent analysis of oil-production levels to submit a lower figure for the kingdom’s June output, sources say https://t.co/eHxmRITDj6 ...

Core Insights - OPEC's latest report indicates a downward revision in global oil demand forecasts for the years 2026 to 2029 compared to last year's predictions [1] Group 1: Oil Demand Forecasts - OPEC projects that global oil demand will average 105 million barrels per day in 2023 [1] - The forecast for global oil demand in 2026 is set at 106.3 million barrels per day, while the 2029 forecast is 111.6 million barrels per day, both lower than previous estimates [1] - OPEC maintains its 2030 daily demand forecast at 113.3 million barrels, unchanged from last year's prediction [1]

OPEC has excluded five of the world’s leading news organizations from covering its biennial oil seminar in Vienna, attended by the group’s ministers and senior industry executives https://t.co/bGhqismFGW ...

Gabon leader Brice Oligui Nguema unveiled a new political party as the OPEC member prepares for parliamentary and local government elections, Gabon 24 reported https://t.co/k8mc9i9mqW ...

Geopolitical Factors & Sanctions - President Trump's Truth Social post regarding China buying Iranian oil has baffled Treasury, state officials, and oil traders, raising questions about potential sanctions waivers [1][2] - The White House clarified that the post doesn't imply waiving sanctions, but the situation is still noteworthy [1] - The post is interpreted as leverage in talks with China over tariffs and with Iran over the ceasefire, potentially signaling a significant policy shift regarding sanctions relief [3][4] Oil Market Dynamics - Attention is shifting back to global demand and supply, with OPEC plus continuing to increase barrel production [5] - Concerns exist about future demand levels, leading to a potential market imbalance [5][6] - Many analysts anticipate a significant supply glut after the summer demand period ends, prompting a return to focusing on market fundamentals [6]

Market Reaction to Geopolitical Events - Equity markets are seemingly moving past concerns related to geopolitical events, as evidenced by Asian FX and dollar offer trends [1] - The oil market is largely discounting the recent flare-up in US-Iranian conflict, with prices falling below the June 12 level [3] - Oil traders perceive minimal risk to the market, contingent on no strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure and no disruption to the Strait of Hormuz [2] Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The oil market's focus is shifting to supply and demand fundamentals, which are currently bearish [4] - Widespread expectations suggest oil supplies will outpace demand in the second half of the year [5] - Chinese demand growth has been weak in recent months, contributing to the bearish outlook [6] - OPEC plus has been agreeing to increase output more than normal, adding barrels to the market [8] - Iran has been increasing its exports, further contributing to the supply glut [8] Price Outlook - The market sentiment has swung back to a bearish view, with discussions shifting from extreme scenarios like $100 oil to potentially lower prices [6] - The $60 range is considered a likely level for oil prices, barring disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz [9] - Shale drillers potentially taking advantage of the recent price spike could add supply, putting downward pressure on prices [9]