Core Insights - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 100,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [1] - The forecast for total oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers, including the U.S., has been revised down to approximately 630,000 barrels per day, down from 730,000 barrels per day, indicating a tighter market supply [1] - OPEC and OPEC+ countries may find it easier to implement production increases to regain market share if oil demand rises and supply growth slows [1] - OPEC maintains its oil demand forecast for 2025, citing resilient global economic data despite uncertainties related to trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1] - In July, OPEC and OPEC+ countries increased crude oil production by 335,000 barrels per day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price lacks obvious driving force and moves towards the path of least resistance. The market is waiting for the meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump. The overall oil price shows an oscillatory trend [1] - For fuel oil, the supply is sufficient, and the subsequent upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [3] - The asphalt market in August is expected to gradually show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [3] - The polyester market is expected to have short - term oscillatory prices for PTA and strong low - level support for ethylene glycol, and attention should be paid to device changes [4] - The short - term rubber price is expected to be strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention to factors such as production during the peak season and anti - dumping investigations [6] - Methanol is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price oscillation [6] - Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited upward space and narrow - range price oscillation [8] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly, with supply remaining high and demand gradually recovering [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. However, OPEC+ production increased in July. The EIA report shows that US oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but may decline in 2026. API data shows changes in US oil inventories. The oil price is oscillatory [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, and the upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic, with an oscillatory trend [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover with the improvement of weather. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, polyester contracts showed different trends. The supply of PTA and ethylene glycol is recovering, and the prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to device changes [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber contracts rose. The short - term rubber price is strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol showed certain price characteristics. The Iranian device load has recovered, and the port inventory has increased, but the downward space is limited, with a near - weak and far - strong structure and narrow - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, polyolefin showed certain price and profit characteristics. The supply will remain high after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price showed different trends in different regions. The supply is high, the demand is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 12 and 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. In July, OPEC+ production increased, and Saudi Arabia's market supply and reported production showed different trends [11] - The EIA report shows that due to the improvement of well productivity, US oil production will reach a record high in 2025, but oil price decline will lead to a decrease in production in 2026 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][33][36] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [47][48][52] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, etc. [62][63][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude oil and other analysts Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil demand will average 104.4 million barrels per day by 2026 [1] Industry Summary - The IEA's monthly report indicates a significant increase in oil demand, suggesting a robust recovery and growth in the global energy sector [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range. - Medium - term: Bearish allocation [4] 2. Core View - OPEC's decision to suspend production increases in October is more of a statement of attitude, indicating that it lacks confidence in off - season demand. The market has recognized that the relaxation of production quotas does not equal an increase in actual production. OPEC is currently ineffective, and most member countries lack the ability to actively adjust production. Saudi Arabia aims to support oil prices rather than seize market share, which is why it has been increasing production slowly [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's light crude oil futures for August delivery fell $1.81 to $66.57 per barrel, a 2.65% decline; Brent crude oil futures for September delivery on the London market dropped $1.55 to $68.64 per barrel, a 2.21% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.44% at 513 yuan per barrel [1] - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates quickly [2] - OPEC stated in its World Oil Outlook 2025 that global oil demand averages 105 million barrels per day this year, is expected to increase to 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and climb to 111.6 million barrels per day in 2029. Forecasts for 2026 - 2029 are lower than last year's. OPEC still predicts 113.3 million barrels per day in 2030, the same as last year. It expects global oil demand to reach 122.9 million barrels per day by 2050, higher than last year's forecast. OPEC expects demand growth to last longer than other forecasters, while the IEA predicts oil demand will peak in the 2020s [2] - OPEC+ discussed suspending production increases from October [2] - Israel's Defense Minister said that if Iran threatens Israel, Israel will strike Iran again [2] - The European Commission will propose a floating price cap mechanism for Russian oil this week as part of a new sanctions package. In June, it proposed lowering the G7's $60 - per - barrel price cap on Russian oil to $45 in the 18th round of sanctions. The G7 reached the price - cap agreement in December 2022 to weaken Russia's ability to finance the Ukraine conflict. The move to lower the cap is due to falling global oil prices, making the current cap ineffective. The Commission is drafting a mechanism to adjust the cap based on global oil price fluctuations, and the plan is still being revised [2] Investment Logic - OPEC decided to suspend production increases in October, and the previous production quota limit of 2.2 million barrels per day will be fully lifted before October. However, oil prices fell instead of rising. The market has recognized that the relaxation of production quotas does not equal an increase in actual production. OPEC's suspension of production increases is more of an attitude, indicating that it lacks confidence in October's demand [3] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [4] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Iranian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [4] - Upside risks: The US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is to hold long positions with short - term shock consolidation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of crude oil is shock consolidation, and long positions are recommended to be held [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI August crude oil futures closed down $1.81 per barrel, a 2.65% decline, at $66.57 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures closed down $1.55 per barrel, a 2.21% decline, at $68.64 per barrel; SC2508 crude oil futures closed down 7.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.44% decline, at 512.80 yuan per barrel [1] Industry News - Kazakhstan plans to maintain the current oil production level until the end of this year [2] - The EU Commission is expected to propose a floating price cap for Russian oil as part of the 18th round of sanctions [2] - As of the week ending July 4, the total US natural gas inventory was 3006 billion cubic feet, an increase of 53 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a 5.8% year - on - year decrease, and 6.1% higher than the 5 - year average [2] - OPEC + is discussing pausing further production increases after the next monthly increase. It has a preliminary plan to complete the last stage of restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September with a monthly increase of 550,000 barrels [2] - The UAE Energy Minister said that the country can increase oil production capacity after 2027 and achieve a capacity of 6 million barrels per day [2] - OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years but raised the long - term demand forecast. It expects global oil demand to reach 122.9 million barrels per day in 2050 [2][5] - As of the week ending July 9, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 1.328 million barrels to a 29 - week high of 24.708 million barrels [5] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5 was 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [4]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC has revised down its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, but has increased its long-term demand outlook due to rising demand from developing countries, indicating no evidence that demand has peaked [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Short-term Demand Forecast - OPEC projects global oil demand to average 105 million barrels per day in 2023, increasing to 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and reaching 111.6 million barrels per day by 2029. The forecasts for demand from 2026 to 2029 are lower than last year's expectations [1] Long-term Demand Forecast - OPEC maintains its forecast of 113.3 million barrels per day for 2030, unchanged from last year. Additionally, the long-term forecast for global oil demand in 2050 has been raised to 122.9 million barrels per day, compared to the previous estimate of 120.1 million barrels per day [1] Comparison with Other Forecasts - OPEC anticipates that the duration of demand growth will exceed that of other forecasters, such as the IEA, which predicts that oil demand will peak in the 2020s [1]

Core Insights - OPEC's latest report indicates a downward revision in global oil demand forecasts for the years 2026 to 2029 compared to last year's predictions [1] Group 1: Oil Demand Forecasts - OPEC projects that global oil demand will average 105 million barrels per day in 2023 [1] - The forecast for global oil demand in 2026 is set at 106.3 million barrels per day, while the 2029 forecast is 111.6 million barrels per day, both lower than previous estimates [1] - OPEC maintains its 2030 daily demand forecast at 113.3 million barrels, unchanged from last year's prediction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the average total demand for oil will reach 103.9 million barrels per day by 2025 [1] Group 1 - The IEA's report indicates a significant increase in global oil demand, reflecting ongoing economic recovery and growth [1] - The projected demand of 103.9 million barrels per day represents a notable rise compared to previous years, highlighting the resilience of the oil market [1] - This forecast may influence investment strategies within the energy sector, as companies adjust to anticipated demand shifts [1]