原油日报 | 2025-07-11 欧佩克决定10月后暂停增产 市场要闻与重要数据 1、\t纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.81美元，收于每桶66.57美元，跌幅为2.65%；9月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.55美元，收于每桶68.64美元，跌幅为2.21%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.44%，报513元/ 桶。 2、 美国总统特朗普：美联储应迅速降息。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、\t欧佩克在周四发布的《2025年世界石油展望》中表示，今年全球石油需求平均为1.05亿桶/日，预计2026年全 球石油需求将增至1.063亿桶/日，2029年将攀升至1.116亿桶/日。对2026年至2029年需求的预测均低于去年的预期。 欧佩克仍预计2030年日均需求为1.133亿桶，与去年预测相同。欧佩克预计，到2050年，全球石油需求将达到1.229 亿桶/日，高于去年报告中预测的1.201亿桶/日。与此同时，欧佩克预计需求增长的持续时间将长于其他预测者，IEA 预计石油需求将在2020年代达到峰值。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、\t欧佩克+讨论从10月起暂停增产。（来源：Bloomberg） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is to hold long positions with short - term shock consolidation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of crude oil is shock consolidation, and long positions are recommended to be held [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI August crude oil futures closed down $1.81 per barrel, a 2.65% decline, at $66.57 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures closed down $1.55 per barrel, a 2.21% decline, at $68.64 per barrel; SC2508 crude oil futures closed down 7.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.44% decline, at 512.80 yuan per barrel [1] Industry News - Kazakhstan plans to maintain the current oil production level until the end of this year [2] - The EU Commission is expected to propose a floating price cap for Russian oil as part of the 18th round of sanctions [2] - As of the week ending July 4, the total US natural gas inventory was 3006 billion cubic feet, an increase of 53 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a 5.8% year - on - year decrease, and 6.1% higher than the 5 - year average [2] - OPEC + is discussing pausing further production increases after the next monthly increase. It has a preliminary plan to complete the last stage of restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September with a monthly increase of 550,000 barrels [2] - The UAE Energy Minister said that the country can increase oil production capacity after 2027 and achieve a capacity of 6 million barrels per day [2] - OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years but raised the long - term demand forecast. It expects global oil demand to reach 122.9 million barrels per day in 2050 [2][5] - As of the week ending July 9, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 1.328 million barrels to a 29 - week high of 24.708 million barrels [5] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5 was 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [4]

金十数据7月10日讯，欧佩克周四下调了未来四年全球石油需求预测，但由于发展中国家石油需求上 升，欧佩克上调了长期需求预测，并表示没有证据表明需求已见顶。欧佩克在周四发布的《2025年世界 石油展望》中表示，今年全球石油需求平均为1.05亿桶/日，预计2026年全球石油需求将增至1.063亿桶/ 日，2029年将攀升至1.116亿桶/日。对2026年至2029年需求的预测均低于去年的预期。欧佩克仍预计 2030年日均需求为1.133亿桶，与去年预测相同。欧佩克预计，到2050年，全球石油需求将达到1.229亿 桶/日，高于去年报告中预测的1.201亿桶/日。与此同时，欧佩克预计需求增长的持续时间将长于其他预 测者，IEA预计石油需求将在2020年代达到峰值。 欧佩克下调未来四年的全球石油需求预估 ...

IEA月报：预测2025年总需求平均为1.039亿桶/日。 ...