Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rise in Hong Kong property stocks, driven by recent policy adjustments that are expected to enhance market activity [1] - Key property stocks such as Agile Group, Shimao Group, and Ronshine China saw increases of 9%, while Greentown China rose nearly 8% and China Jinmao increased by 6.5% [2] - The latest report from CICC indicates that the Ministry of Finance announced a new policy on the value-added tax for personal housing sales, and Beijing adjusted its purchase and loan restrictions, which are seen as positive developments for the market [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent policy improvements, the fundamental trends in the real estate market remain weak, necessitating ongoing observation of the interaction between policy and market fundamentals [1] - CICC suggests a cautious approach towards the real estate development sector in the short to medium term, while prioritizing investment in core assets within the commercial real estate sector that offer absolute returns [1] - If policy measures exceed expectations, there may be a more positive outlook for the real estate development sector, particularly for companies with high profit certainty and strong operational trends [1]

这已经是张阿姨一家五口当天看的第二个项目了。 2026年1月3日上午约11时，成都下着小雨，鞋底还粘有门口工地泥土的张阿姨一家，已经在金茂晓棠样板间，拿着户型图一一对比了起来。 "主要看龙泉和成华两个区的新房，但我们只有300万元预算，各方面都满意的可选房源并不多。"张阿姨告诉《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记 者），价格和距离都是需要考虑的主要问题。 三天看了近10个项目 成都金茂晓棠 每经记者 陈利 摄 在张阿姨看来，一家人首选新房，但如果能在价格上有更合适的次新房也不排斥。"儿子、儿媳都是一般的上班族，家里还有孩子要养，不愿也不敢背负 太多房贷。" 但对于现在正居住的旧房，张阿姨一家并不急着卖掉。"一天一个价，但都低于我们的预期。"据其透露，"2025年初还能卖到150万元，现在最低120万 元。太低了，再等等吧"。 "看房也累，三天时间看了快10个楼盘了，新房、二手房都看过了。"在金茂晓棠136平方米样板间，张阿姨告诉每经记者，目前一家人在成都有一套 房，"10多年前买的，套内使用面积只有70多平方米，但随着儿子结婚又有了小孩，家里显得拥挤，所以就想换个面积大点的四房"。 金茂晓棠正好在张阿姨300 ...

精准帮扶是这套组合拳的核心招式。2025年，市、区两级专班对全市369个主要在售项目逐一上门 走访，累计召开89次企业座谈会、部门协调会，解决企业诉求594条。针对每个项目的资金、销售、配 套难题，建立"一楼一策"台账，市级督办、跟踪落实。"这种实打实的帮扶，帮我们度过了最困难的时 期。"一位参与座谈的房企负责人说。 与此同时，"一类一策"的供需对接模式覆盖多类群体。住建部门会同相关部门组织房企"进企业、 进园区、进工厂、进高校"，为人才、教师、医生等提供专属团购优惠；在城中村改造区域设立"购房便 民服务站"，现场为被征迁户匹配房源。数据显示，去年以来国企"以旧换新"已成交1093套，人才房票 购房4684套，拆迁房票购房2676套，合计撬动近20%的商品房销售。 交易平台也在重构。线上，"苏住房"平台集成在售房源展示、房贷税费导引、交易流程透明化等功 能，开设"两智一全"住宅专区；线下，全市建设运营多个"房产超市"，实现一站式选房、贷款、办证。 双线并行，打通了政策落地的"最后一公里"。 "两智一全"定义"好房子"苏州标准 2024年深秋，吴中太湖新城雅泽璟庭项目现场，一台5G塔吊精准吊装预制构件，建筑机器 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of real estate companies is expected to continue bottoming out in 2025, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance. Among typical real estate companies, 24% reported year-on-year growth, with 12 companies showing growth rates exceeding 30% [1] - The confidence and expectations of homebuyers are still in the process of recovery, prompting real estate companies to focus on improving their internal capabilities and product quality [1] - Recent meetings held by various ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, have outlined key work for 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand, promoting high-quality industrial development, and stabilizing the real estate market [1] Group 2 - Recent policy adjustments, such as the announcement from the Ministry of Finance regarding the value-added tax on personal housing sales and changes to purchase and loan restrictions in Beijing, are expected to enhance market activity [2] - The real estate market fundamentals remain weak, but there are small, positive developments in policy, necessitating ongoing observation of the interaction between policy and fundamentals. Short to medium-term patience is advised for the real estate development sector, with a focus on core assets in commercial real estate [2] - Recommendations include real estate stocks with "good credit, good city, good product," companies that manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments, local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, and property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages [2] Group 3 - Relevant companies in the real estate industry chain listed on the Hong Kong stock market include Sunac China (01918), China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (00081), Longfor Group (00960), Vanke (02202), China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), China Overseas Development (00688), and Jianfa International (01908) [3]

Group 1 - The overall performance of real estate companies is expected to continue bottoming out in 2025, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance [1] - Among typical real estate companies, 24% reported year-on-year performance growth, with 12 companies showing growth rates exceeding 30% [1] - The confidence and expectations of homebuyers are still in the process of recovery, prompting real estate companies to enhance their internal capabilities and product quality [1] Group 2 - Recent policies, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and the announcement of a new value-added tax policy on personal housing sales, are expected to boost market activity [2] - The real estate market fundamentals remain weak, but there are small, positive developments on the policy front that warrant ongoing observation of the interaction between policy and fundamentals [2] - Recommendations include focusing on real estate stocks with good credit, good cities, and good products, as well as companies that can manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments [2] Group 3 - Relevant Hong Kong-listed real estate companies include Sunac China (01918), China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (00081), Longfor Group (00960), Vanke (02202), China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), China Overseas Development (00688), and Jianfa International (01908) [3]

在销售保持稳定的基础上，房企投资端同步回暖。中指研究院数据显示，2025年TOP100房企拿地总额 为9640亿元，同比增长3.9%。 "一方面，为稳定土地市场，多地推出利好政策，推地质量也不断提升，增加了房企拿地积极性；另一 方面，近年来房企拿地力度较弱，存量可开发土地已基本开发完毕，当前抓住利好时机积极补仓，以图 可持续发展。"中指研究院相关负责人表示，当前，民企拿地主要集中在一二线核心城市，且聚焦优势 区域深耕，例如滨江集团在杭州拿地、懋源地产在北京拿地。 从区域分布看，一二线核心城市成为房企重仓区域。2025年，杭州、上海、北京三地全年土地出让金均 超1400亿元。在业界看来，一二线核心城市人口流入大、产业基础强、需求更有韧性，因此更受房企青 睐。 头部房企新增货值继续向核心城市和优质项目集中 中指研究院日前发布的数据显示，2025年销售额超千亿元的房企共10家，头部企业销售规模保持韧性， 核心城市项目仍是主要支撑。 从销售结构看，头部房企优势依然明显。保利发展（600048）控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"保利 发展"）、绿城中国控股有限公司、招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司（以下简称"招商蛇口 （ ...

从销售结构看，头部房企优势依然明显。保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"保利发展"）、绿 城中国控股有限公司、招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司（以下简称"招商蛇口"）、杭州滨江房产集 团股份有限公司（以下简称"滨江集团"）等企业的销售额均超过千亿元。 中指研究院日前发布的数据显示，2025年销售额超千亿元的房企共10家，头部企业销售规模保持韧性， 核心城市项目仍是主要支撑。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进向《证券日报》记者表示，近年来，多地在供地端持续优化出让机 制，土地供应呈现出"控量提质"的特征。一方面，地方政府不断提升供地精准度，部分城市对配建公共 服务设施的项目给予容积率奖励，另有城市通过支持土地出让金分期缴纳，缓解房企资金压力。另一方 面，围绕"好房子"建设导向，各地加大低容积率、可开发性较强地块的投放力度，优质地块供应明显增 加，房企竞拍积极性提升，高溢价成交案例增多。 展望未来，严跃进表示，2026年住宅市场有望迎来一批在区位、品质和功能上更具竞争力的"好房子"项 目，核心城市新房产品结构将进一步优化，具备持续开发能力与稳健经营能力的头部房企，有望保持竞 争优势。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the market [2][3]. - The report highlights that while the traditional real estate development model has reached its limits, the sector remains a crucial foundation for the national economy, with significant demand still to be released [4]. - The report suggests that if policies continue to address expectations effectively, it could accelerate market stabilization [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate companies, which are characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, including companies like China Overseas Development and Longfor Group [5]. - It also highlights companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments, such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Companies benefiting from the recovery of the Hong Kong market, like Sun Hung Kai Properties, are also recommended [5]. Policy Management - The report stresses the need for maintaining policy strength, effective supply management, and enhancing information and public opinion guidance to stabilize market expectations [3]. - It notes that policies should align with market expectations and be implemented decisively to avoid a situation where the market and policies are in conflict [3]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the real estate market is still adjusting, with significant declines in sales and prices, and mentions the potential for bankruptcies among some companies [2]. - It emphasizes that the real estate sector is closely linked to financial security and household wealth, underscoring its importance in the broader economic context [2]. Company Performance - The report provides detailed performance forecasts for several key companies, adjusting earnings per share (EPS) estimates for various firms based on market conditions and operational performance [12][13][14]. - For instance, Longfor Group's EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.52, 0.68, and 1.04 yuan, reflecting a downward revision due to expected profitability challenges in its development business [12]. - China Overseas Development's EPS estimates have been adjusted to 1.39, 1.48, and 1.60 yuan for the same period, indicating a more optimistic outlook based on its strong market position and project pipeline [12].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial landscape in Changsha is evolving, with new projects set to enhance the consumer experience beyond traditional shopping, creating emotional spaces for residents and visitors alike [1][14]. Group 1: New Commercial Projects - Changsha will introduce several high-profile commercial projects by 2026, moving away from uniformity to offer distinct experiences that answer the question, "What else can shopping malls provide?" [3][14]. - The Bixiang Chuxiang, the first "non-standard commercial" art street in Changsha, is expected to open in mid-2026, preserving historical sites while integrating modern architecture and cultural experiences [3][5]. - The TX Changsha Youth Power Center, set to debut in the second quarter of 2026, will focus on "curated retail" and co-creation, featuring pop-up stores and themed exhibitions to engage local youth and creators [9][14]. - The Longfor Changsha Kaifu Tianjie, a 120,000 square meter complex, will open in October 2026, serving as a regional engine for quality commercial offerings, combining shopping, dining, and social spaces [12][14]. Group 2: Upgrading Existing Spaces - Existing commercial areas are undergoing transformations, with places like Aimin Lane enhancing their appeal through thoughtful design that harmonizes traditional storefronts with modern cafes and tea shops [17][20]. - The 233 Art Community, formerly a nuclear industry factory, now hosts art exhibitions and cafes, blending nostalgia with contemporary culture to attract a diverse audience [20][26]. - The upgrades in Changsha's old commercial streets aim to balance memory with modernity, local culture with tourism, and commerce with art, creating a welcoming environment for both locals and visitors [26][27].

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 三个市场关注点和一个自然均衡点 ——房地产行业 2026 年度投资策略 周期/房地产 q 投资建议： 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 258 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2936.6 | 2.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2781.7 | 2.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.8 14.2 8.6 相对表现 -4.0 -3.4 -9.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Jan/25 Apr/25 Aug/25 Dec/25 (%) 房地产 沪深300 相关报告 房地产角度：关注（1）业绩相对稳健且股息率较高的【华润置地】【华润万 象生活】等；（2）经营动量有积极变化的公司，例如 25 年【滨江集团】【中 国金茂】【建发国际集团】【越秀地产】等曾演绎这一逻辑；（3）公开债务 偿付压力下降且估值较低的【金地集团】【龙湖集团】等；（4）业绩增长及 分红稳定的物企【保利物业】【绿城服务】等；（5）存在机会型布 ...