Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the new consumption adjustments are in place, and the valuation of the export chain is expected to rise [2] - The report emphasizes the recovery of pulp prices and the potential for price stabilization in the paper industry, suggesting a focus on companies with integrated pulp and paper operations [2][3] - The report notes robust overseas demand and anticipates a strong replenishment in Q3, particularly benefiting companies with established overseas production capabilities [2][3] - The new tobacco sector is seeing positive developments with Juul receiving FDA authorization, which may accelerate compliance processes [2][3] - The jewelry sector is expected to see a recovery in performance, with companies like Lai Shen Tong Ling forecasting a return to profitability [2][3] - The electric two-wheeler market is showing strong sales trends, with companies like Yadi maintaining good sales momentum [2][3] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is thriving, with Amazon's Prime Day achieving significant sales growth [2][3] - The IP retail sector, represented by Pop Mart, is experiencing substantial profit growth, driven by brand recognition and global sales [2][3] - The mother and baby industry is expected to benefit from policy catalysts, with companies like Ai Ying Shi showing positive growth [2][3] - The report indicates that the home furnishing sector is under pressure but may benefit from upcoming consumption stimulus policies [2][3] - The packaging industry is facing profitability challenges, but consolidation and efficiency improvements may lead to recovery [2][3] - The tools sector is entering a growth phase, with companies like Ju Xing Technology securing significant contracts [2][3] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Pulp supply disruptions continue, with price increases expected as the market stabilizes [2] - Companies like Tai Yang Paper and Xian He Co. are recommended for their profit improvement potential [2][3] Exports - Overseas demand remains strong, with expectations for Q3 replenishment [2] - Companies with overseas production capabilities are likely to see order recovery [2][3] New Tobacco - Juul's FDA authorization is a significant positive development for the sector [2] - Companies like Smoore are highlighted for their long-term confidence [2][3] Jewelry - Lai Shen Tong Ling forecasts a return to profitability, indicating a recovery in the sector [2][3] Electric Two-Wheelers - Strong sales trends reported for companies like Yadi and Ninebot [2][3] Cross-Border E-Commerce - Amazon's Prime Day achieved a GMV of $24.1 billion, a 30.3% increase year-on-year [2][3] IP Retail - Pop Mart expects significant profit growth, driven by brand recognition and global sales [2][3] Mother and Baby - Ai Ying Shi shows positive growth, with expectations for continued performance improvement [2][3] Home Furnishing - The sector is under pressure but may benefit from upcoming consumption stimulus policies [2][3] Packaging - Profitability challenges persist, but consolidation may lead to recovery [2][3] Tools - Ju Xing Technology secures significant contracts, indicating growth potential [2][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening the bottom-line asset layout and focusing on core leaders in the new consumption sector, indicating a shift in the export chain layout [2][3] - The report highlights that the pulp price is expected to stabilize in Q3 and potentially recover in Q4, suggesting a bottoming out of the pulp cycle [2][3] - The report notes that the new tobacco sector, particularly the GLO HILO product, is expected to see accelerated shipment rhythms, indicating strong market potential [2][3] - The home furnishing sector is showing stable order performance, with companies like Qu Mei actively transforming their retail strategies [2][3] - The packaging sector is experiencing robust overseas orders, with expectations for a recovery in the metal packaging segment [2][3] - The report discusses the positive growth outlook for the pet industry, particularly for companies like Petty Co., which is expected to maintain stable export growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Arauco has restarted sales of hardwood pulp at $500 per ton, indicating a firm pricing stance despite buyer negotiations for lower prices [2] - The report anticipates that the pulp price will stabilize in Q3 and may recover in Q4 due to various market indicators [2][3] Export Sector - New tariffs imposed by the U.S. on certain countries are expected to impact the export landscape, but the overall direction appears to be stabilizing [2][3] - Costco's sales in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, indicating steady demand growth [2] New Tobacco - The GLO HILO product is expected to see an increase in market share due to improved product strength and channel capabilities [2][3] Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing stable performance, with companies like Qu Mei focusing on retail transformation and expanding into shopping center channels [2][3] Packaging - The report indicates strong overseas demand for paper packaging and a potential recovery in the metal packaging sector due to reduced competition [2][3] Pet Industry - Petty Co. is expected to achieve slight growth in exports, supported by strong relationships with overseas clients and a focus on customized products [4][5] E-commerce - The report highlights the impressive performance of "Jiao Ge Peng You" in H1 2025, with a GMV of approximately 69.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.11% [5] Tools - Ju Xing Technology is expected to see strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue projections indicating resilience despite uncertain tariff policies [5]

晨会纪要（2025/07/08） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.08） 基金研究 宽基指数资金大幅流出，主动权益基金仓位上升——公募基金周报 行业研究 美越关税落地，"反内卷"下关注造纸行业修复机会——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 基金研究 宽基指数资金大幅流出，主动权益基金仓位上升——公募基金周报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 本周，市场主要指数多数上调，沪深 300 在市盈率及市净率指数估值分位数方面涨幅居前。行业方面，31 个申万一级行业中 25 个行业上涨，涨幅前五的行业为钢铁、建筑材料、银行、医药生物和综合；跌幅前五 的行业为计算机、非银金融、美容护理、交通运输和商业贸易。 2、公募基金市场概况 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/07/08） 市 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the growth certainty amidst fluctuations in the light industry manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on the export chain narrative becoming clearer [2] - The report highlights the stability in paper prices and the potential recovery in the pulp and paper sector, with specific companies recommended for investment [2][3] - The report discusses the impact of new tariffs on exports from Vietnam to the U.S. and suggests that this may lead to a recovery in order placements [3] - The report notes the challenges in the new tobacco sector due to increased compliance scrutiny in the U.S. and suggests potential beneficiaries of this trend [4] - The report outlines the performance of various sectors including e-commerce, electrical lighting, and home furnishings, indicating growth opportunities and strategic expansions [7][9][10] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Pulp prices are stabilizing with South American bleached eucalyptus pulp prices at $500-510 per ton, and domestic pulp mills are facing rising costs [2] - Companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe are recommended for their integrated pulp and paper operations and profitability improvements [2] Exports - The recent tariff agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is expected to enhance order placements and stabilize the export chain [3] - Companies with strong global layouts and those facing short-term performance pressures are highlighted for potential investment [3] New Tobacco - The U.S. FDA is increasing compliance checks, leading to a significant drop in e-cigarette shipments, which may benefit compliant companies [4] E-commerce - "Jiao Ge Peng You" reported impressive sales during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a successful technology-driven retail strategy [7] Electrical Lighting & Smart Home - Bull Group's international strategy is yielding results with significant sales in Germany, while other companies are exploring high-end markets [9] Home Furnishings - The launch of new product systems by "Bei Wo" and the anticipated restart of national subsidies are expected to boost consumer confidence in home furnishings [10] Consumer Products - The report notes a divergence in growth trends within the personal care sector, with certain brands showing strong performance [11] Gold and Jewelry - The demand for boutique gold jewelry is strengthening, with stable gold prices expected to support overall industry recovery [12][13] Two-Wheel Vehicles - Tao Tao Vehicle's strong profit forecast indicates growth potential in the electric vehicle sector [14] Cross-Border E-commerce - Companies like Xiao Shang Pin Cheng and Ji Hong are expected to perform well as tariff uncertainties diminish [15] Packaging - Yongxin and Yutong Technology are projected to maintain steady growth, with a focus on functional and differentiated materials [16]

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed an investment agreement for a new integrated bamboo pulp and high-performance paper-based materials project in Sichuan, with a total planned investment of approximately 11 billion yuan, aiming to produce 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of high-performance paper annually [2][3]. Investment and Expansion Plans - The project will be implemented in phases, with the first phase involving an investment of about 5.5 billion yuan to produce 400,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 600,000 tons of high-performance paper [3]. - The second phase will also require an investment of approximately 5.5 billion yuan, with similar production targets as the first phase [3]. - The company aims to achieve the first phase's production within three years from the start of construction, while the second phase will depend on market conditions and operational performance [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.11%, and a net profit of 1.004 billion yuan, up 51.23% [4]. - However, the fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 3.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, but a net profit decline of 33.7% [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 2.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, but a net profit decrease of 12.1% [4]. Debt and Financial Pressure - The company's debt levels have been increasing, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 65.49% as of March 2025, up from 32.46% in 2020 [7]. - Long-term borrowings rose from 3.409 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.923 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, with interest expenses increasing significantly [7]. - The company has a short-term liquidity challenge, with cash on hand of 895 million yuan against short-term borrowings of 2.037 billion yuan [7]. Strategic Rationale for Expansion - The company is expanding based on national policies promoting the use of bamboo as a substitute for plastic and aims to reduce reliance on imported raw materials [5]. - The bamboo resource is renewable and aligns with environmental trends, with the first phase expected to generate an annual output value of 5.15 billion yuan and tax revenue of 450 million yuan [5]. - The company is focusing on high-performance paper-based materials to avoid market homogenization and strengthen its competitive advantage [5]. Financing Strategies - The company plans to finance the new project through bank loans, diversified financing, and operational cash flow from existing projects [8]. - It aims to enhance its debt repayment capacity through increased cash flow from the new projects and is expected to receive preferential treatment for green financing due to alignment with national strategies [8]. - The controlling shareholder plans to increase their stake by 300 million to 500 million yuan to boost market confidence [8].

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. plans to invest 11 billion yuan to establish an integrated high-performance paper base new material project using bamboo pulp, aiming to enhance production capacity and reduce reliance on imported raw materials [1][2]. Investment Details - The investment will be executed in two phases, with each phase costing approximately 5.5 billion yuan, leading to a total investment of 11 billion yuan [1]. - Upon completion, the project is expected to add an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of high-performance paper base materials, generating an estimated annual output value of 5.15 billion yuan and tax revenue of about 450 million yuan, while creating around 2,000 jobs [1]. Strategic Rationale - The investment aims to extend the industrial chain, achieve raw material self-sufficiency, and control costs, addressing the current dependency on imported wood pulp, which poses risks to cost management and supply chain stability [2][5]. - In 2024, the daily consumer series, which includes specialty paper, is projected to account for 47.05% of total revenue, highlighting the critical need for stable raw material supply [2]. Financial Implications - The total investment of 11 billion yuan represents 136% of Xianhe's net assets for 2024, with a current debt-to-asset ratio of 65.11%, indicating potential financial strain from large-scale financing [7]. - The company plans to finance the first phase of 5.5 billion yuan in batches, adjusting based on future demand and market conditions [7]. Market Conditions - The bamboo pulp production capacity utilization rate is expected to be only 85% in 2024, raising concerns about the feasibility of absorbing the new production capacity without facing impairment risks [7]. - Xianhe Co. faces competitive pressures from peers like Qingshan Paper Industry, which is also expanding its bamboo pulp capacity, potentially leading to increased price competition in the industry [7][8].

Group 1 - On July 4, CICC Fund announced personnel changes regarding its equity fund management team, primarily involving fund manager Yan Xin [1] - Yan Xin has been appointed as a co-manager for the CICC Economic Cycle Driven Mixed Fund alongside Wang Jialie, while she has been dismissed from her position managing the CICC Consumption Upgrade Equity Fund due to business adjustments [6][4] - Yan Xin has 10 years of experience in the securities industry and 5 years in investment management, previously working as a researcher at Sunshine Asset Management before joining CICC Fund in August 2020 [3][6] Group 2 - The CICC Consumption Upgrade Equity Fund, managed by Yan Xin, has shown a return of -35.32% during her tenure, ranking 401 out of 448 in its category, with continuous losses over four years [6][10] - The CICC Economic Cycle Driven Mixed Fund, which Yan Xin is now managing, has performed better with an 11.98% increase since its inception in May 2022, and a 24.46% increase over the past year [10] - The shift in Yan Xin's management from a poorly performing fund to a stronger one reflects CICC Fund's strategy of reallocating resources to enhance overall management efficiency [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced an adjustment to the conversion price of its convertible bond "He 21 Convertible Bond" due to the implementation of the 2024 annual equity distribution, lowering the conversion price from 19.49 CNY/share to 18.99 CNY/share, effective from July 10, 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Bond Details - The bond code for "He 21 Convertible Bond" is 113632, and the bond was issued on November 17, 2021, with a total issuance of 205 million bonds, amounting to 2.05 billion CNY, and a maturity period of 6 years [1][2]. - The previous conversion price before adjustment was 19.49 CNY/share, and the new conversion price after adjustment is 18.99 CNY/share [1][5]. Group 2: Adjustment Rationale - The adjustment of the conversion price is based on the company's profit distribution plan, which includes a cash dividend of 0.50 CNY/share for shareholders [4][5]. - The adjustment formula for the conversion price is specified in the bond's prospectus, which accounts for various scenarios such as stock dividends, capital increases, and cash dividends [4][5]. Group 3: Trading Suspension - The securities will be suspended from trading from July 3, 2025, to July 9, 2025, during the equity distribution registration period, and trading will resume on July 10, 2025 [5].

| 证券代码：603733 | 证券简称：仙鹤股份 | 公告编号：2025-032 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113632 | 债券简称：鹤 21 转债 | | 仙鹤股份有限公司 关于实施 2024 年年度权益分派调整"鹤 21 转债" 转股价格的公告 重要内容提示： 因实施 2024 年年度权益分派,本公司的相关证券停复牌情况如下： 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | 停复牌类型 | 停牌起始日 | 停牌 期间 | 停牌终止日 | 复牌日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 113632 | 鹤 21 | 转债 | 可转债转股复牌 | | | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | 经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准仙鹤股份有限公司公开发行可转换公 司债券的批复》（证监许可[2021]3200 号）核准，仙鹤股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"、"本公司"）于 2021 年 ...

2024年年度权益分派实施公告 | 证券代码：603733 | 证券简称：仙鹤股份 | 公告编号：2025-031 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113632 | 债券简称：鹤 21 转债 | | 仙鹤股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.50元 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/7/9 | － | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/10 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 5 月 20 日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2 ...