国泰海通主要观点如下： 2026年1月，津巴布韦政府已经开始检查是否存在违反津禁止原矿石出口政策、非法将矿石走私出境的 行为。推测这些连贯政策目标是要将锂的采、选和冶炼产业留在国内，这符合资源国的一贯做法。而本 次禁止出口政策，预期也将使得津巴布韦的锂矿出口更加规范。目前，我国在津巴布韦拥有锂矿的企业 已经开始建立硫酸锂产能，预期产能建成投产后将逐步消化政策影响。 国泰海通发布研报称，根据SMM数据，我国2025年从津巴布韦进口锂精矿总计119万吨，折算碳酸锂产 量14.88万吨，津巴布韦对全球碳酸锂供给的影响较大。若津巴布韦禁止出口的政策持续，锂矿供给端 将明显收紧。目前，我国在津巴布韦拥有锂矿的企业已经开始建立硫酸锂产能，预期产能建成投产后将 逐步消化政策影响。碳酸锂行业供给偏紧，库存持续去化，津巴布韦禁止出口政策将使得行业基本面更 趋紧张，预期锂价偏强震荡，维持行业"增持"评级。 津巴布韦禁止锂精矿出口，预期对供给扰动较大 根据SMM，2月25日津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口(含在途货物)，旨在加强矿产 监管与问责。未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资格，禁止代理及第三方贸易商 ...

东吴证券主要观点如下： 供给：增量供给为非矿、澳矿、国内盐湖，增量多集中于26H2 中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨，新增44万吨，若津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际 新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨；28年303万吨，新增41万吨。其中，26年增量主要来自：国内盐 湖新增8.4万吨(麻米措、察尔汗、拉果措)、国内矿山6.6万吨(枧下窝复产、新疆红柳滩、党坝、加达、 湘源矿)、海外盐湖6.9万吨(3Q、Mariana和CO)、澳矿的7.8万吨(泰利森和皮尔巴拉以及Marion等矿山达 产)、非矿11.5万吨(中企产能打满，同时Manono、Sandawana、海南矿业爬坡，以及尼日利亚等增量)， 并且新增产能多集中26Q3。 供需：26全年偏紧，Q1和Q4最紧缺，Q2-3相对缓解，28年或过剩 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨，新增44万吨，若 津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨。供需端，26Q1和Q4 最为紧缺，Q2-Q3供给紧缺阶段性略微缓解，但26Q4将出现供给短缺。价格端，锂价合理中枢15 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 需求超预期，开启26-27年向上新周期 ——碳酸锂专题 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 电动车首席证券分析师 ：阮巧燕 执业证书编号：S0600517120002 联系邮箱：ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年2月26日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 摘要 注：全文的"预计"若无特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所预测 ◆ 供给：增量供给为非矿、澳矿、国内盐湖，增量多集中于26H2。中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨， 新增44万吨，若津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨；28年 303万吨，新增41万吨。其中，26年增量主要来自：国内盐湖新增8.4万吨（麻米措、察尔汗、拉果措）、国 内矿山6.6万吨（枧下窝复产、新疆红柳滩、党坝、加达、湘源矿）、海外盐湖6.9万吨（3Q、Mariana和 CO）、澳矿的7.8万吨（泰利森和皮尔巴拉以及Marion等矿山达产）、非矿11.5万吨（中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines has announced an immediate suspension of all unprocessed mineral and lithium concentrate exports, significantly impacting the global lithium supply chain [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Impact - Following the announcement, U.S. lithium producers saw significant stock price increases, with Sigma Lithium rising nearly 30% and Livent up 8% [1]. - In the A-share market, lithium-related stocks were notably active, with companies like Keli Yuan and Jinyuan shares hitting the daily limit, and Salt Lake shares increasing over 8% [3]. - The price of lithium carbonate has surged, with recent contracts reaching 175,960 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.84% increase [8]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Zimbabwe is the fourth largest lithium producer globally and the largest in Africa, with over 90% of its lithium concentrate exported to China [7]. - The suspension of exports is part of a broader trend, as countries like Namibia and Botswana have implemented similar measures, reshaping the global lithium supply chain towards local processing [7]. - By 2025, Zimbabwe's lithium concentrate production is expected to account for 12% of global supply, with China importing 15.5% of its lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe [7]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Response - China's lithium upstream inventory is critically low, with less than 20,000 tons available, which may exacerbate supply shortages due to the export ban [10]. - The ban is expected to create a supply gap of up to 20,000 tons per month, further intensifying the existing supply-demand imbalance in the lithium market [11]. - The situation may lead to a short-term increase in lithium prices, benefiting domestic lithium companies and prompting them to accelerate overseas mining investments [13]. Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Huayou Cobalt holds a 51% stake in Zimbabwe's Arcadia lithium mine, with a lithium carbonate equivalent of 245,000 tons, and is developing a processing plant [14]. - Zhongkuang Resources fully controls Zimbabwe's Bikita lithium mine, which is the largest operational lithium mine in Africa, with a high lithium oxide grade [14]. - Tianqi Lithium has full control over the Talison lithium mine, ensuring a self-sufficient resource rate and benefiting from rising lithium prices [14]. - Ganfeng Lithium, a global leader in the lithium industry, has a diversified resource layout and is well-positioned to avoid risks from Zimbabwe's export ban [15].

2月26日，A股市场稀有金属股集体走强，其中，章源钨业、云南锗业涨停，中钨高新涨超8%，东方钽业涨 超6%，翔鹭钨业、融捷股份、天齐锂业、永兴材料涨超4%，厦门钨业、赣锋锂业、西藏矿业涨超3%。 消息面上，章源钨业发布2月26日关于调整焊接机夹刀片价格的通知函称，因钨原材料价格持续上涨，致使 公司生产成本大幅增长。为了公司的可持续发展，公司决定从2026年2月26日起，对焊接机夹刀片产品按新 价格执行。自调价之日起，产品一律按新价格执行。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 另外还值得注意的是，白宫拟利用美国防部开发的AI模型，为全球关键矿产贸易制定参考价格，将率先制 定锗、镓、锑、钨的参考价格。 | | | | | 稀有金属板块个股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | | 涨幅%↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | 1 | 002378 | 章源钨业 | 1 | 10.01 | 443亿 | 160.30 | | 2 | 002428 | 云南猪业 | 1 | 10.01 | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare metal stocks in the A-share market have collectively strengthened, with significant price increases observed in several companies, driven by rising raw material costs and strategic pricing adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry and Yunnan Zinc Industry both reached the daily limit increase of 10.01% [1][2]. - Zhongtung High-tech saw an increase of over 8.11%, while Dongfang Tantalum Industry rose by over 6.70% [1][2]. - Other notable performers include Xianglu Tungsten Industry, Rongjie Co., Tianqi Lithium, and Yongxing Materials, all increasing by over 4% [1][2]. - Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tibet Mining also experienced gains of over 3% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry announced a price adjustment for its welding machine clamp blades due to the continuous rise in tungsten raw material prices, effective from February 26, 2026 [1]. - The U.S. White House plans to utilize an AI model developed by the Department of Defense to establish reference prices for critical global mineral trades, starting with germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten [1].

2月26日，早盘锂矿概念大幅高开，金圆股份封一字涨停，江特电机、永杉锂业、国城矿业、大中矿 业、融捷股份、永兴材料等涨幅靠前。消息面上，津巴布韦宣布即日起暂停锂精矿及原矿出口，该国锂 储量达1.26亿吨，是全球主要供应国。 中信证券：锂板块有望大涨 津巴布韦暂停锂精矿和原矿出口，立即生效 相关阅读 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports, which has led to a significant increase in lithium-related stocks in the A-share market [1][2] - The suspension aims to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability, allowing only companies with valid mining rights and approved processing plants to export [1][2] - Zimbabwe is the largest lithium exporter in Africa and the second-largest source of lithium concentrate imports for China, with a reported import of approximately 7.75 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 39.4% [1] Group 2 - The ban on lithium exports is a significant shift from the previously planned full ban in 2027, causing global disruptions in the lithium supply chain and increasing the short-term supply gap [2] - The price of lithium carbonate surged nearly 12% to 187,700 yuan per ton following the announcement [1][2] - Various lithium-related stocks saw substantial gains, with companies like Jinyuan Co. and Keli Yuan nearing their daily limit up, reflecting strong market sentiment [1][3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports, which has led to a significant increase in the stock prices of lithium-related companies in the A-share market [1][2]. - The suspension aims to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability, allowing only companies with valid mining rights and approved processing plants to export [1][2]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged nearly 12% to 187,700 yuan per ton following the announcement, indicating heightened market volatility and demand for lithium [1][2]. Group 2 - Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports has been implemented much earlier than the previously planned full ban in 2027, causing disruptions in the global lithium supply chain [2]. - This action is expected to directly reduce global lithium production, exacerbating the shortage of concentrates and increasing price elasticity in the short term [2]. - As of January to December 2025, China imported approximately 7.751 million tons of lithium concentrate, a year-on-year increase of about 39.4%, primarily from Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria [1].

内容概况：近年来，我国工业链条行业持续加大硬件设备投入，推动企业实施机电一体化改造，成功推 出一系列高强度、高效率的专业化产品，使得中小规格工业链条在性能与工艺合理性方面取得显著进 步。与此同时，国内工业化与城镇化的深入推进，带动了物流、交通、食品生产等相关产业的持续发 展，为工业链条产品提供了广阔的市场空间。行业整体制造实力的提升与下游需求的扩张，共同推动了 工业链条行业的稳步增长与产业环境的优化。据统计，2015-2025年中国工业链条行业市场规模从 326.31亿元增长至863.2亿元，年复合增长率为10%。工业链条作为机械传动领域的重要组成部分，其技 术与应用持续演进，从传统的动力传递逐步扩展至现代自动化生产体系，始终发挥着不可或缺的关键作 用。未来，随着高强度材料、精密制造工艺以及智能化设计的进一步引入，工业链条的性能将不断提 升，应用范围也将进一步拓展，在高端装备、绿色制造及自动化系统中具有广阔的发展前景。 相关上市企业：征和工业（003033）、宝钢股份（600019）、中信特钢（000708）、南钢股份 （600282）、华菱钢铁（000932）、久立特材（002318）、永兴材料（00275 ...