行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 14 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...

Core Insights - The ALPS International Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (IDOG) has reduced its exposure to Japan while increasing investments in various European markets during its annual December rebalance, indicating a shift in international dividend opportunities [1][2]. Fund Strategy and Methodology - IDOG employs a yield-ranking methodology that selects the five highest-yielding stocks in each sector, leading to a decrease in Japanese companies and an increase in European stocks in the top yield spots [2][4]. - The fund follows the "Dogs of the Dow" approach, equally weighting its 50 holdings across all 10 sectors, with each sector representing 10% of the portfolio [4][7]. Portfolio Changes - The fund eliminated four Japanese companies, including Honda Motor Co., Japan Tobacco, and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, resulting in a net reduction of three Japanese positions, while adding only Nippon Steel [3]. - New positions were added in Poland (Bank Polska), Norway (Equinor), Portugal (EDP), and Austria (OMV), with Denmark also represented through AP Moller-Maersk and Coloplast [3]. - In the financial sector, IDOG sold Northern European banks like Nordea Bank and Credit Agricole, opting for Italian institutions such as Banca Monte dei Paschi and Banco BPM [5]. - The industrials sector saw a swap from Deutsche Post to AP Moller-Maersk, while energy holdings shifted from Repsol to Equinor and OMV [6]. Rebalance Overview - The reconstitution involved 15 additions and 15 deletions, resulting in approximately 30% portfolio turnover, while maintaining equal sector weights at 10% each [7].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Geopolitical risks have eased, the US is gradually lifting sanctions on Venezuela and starting to sell Venezuelan crude oil, resulting in marginal bearishness on the supply side. Coupled with the inventory build - up pressure of nearly 3 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in Q1 2026, crude oil is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (main contract) | 58.19 | 58.62 | 59.57 | 57.46 | 1.7 | 27.71 | | Brent (main contract) | 62.6 | 63.02 | 63.92 | 61.83 | 1.66 | 45.85 | | SC (main contract, Yuan/barrel) | 431.7 | 437.5 | 440.1 | 429.8 | 2.75 | 8.66 | [6] Event - Trump met with the heads of 17 major oil companies at the White House. After the meeting, Trump said that oil companies would invest $100 billion in Venezuela to revitalize its oil industry. Oil companies have different attitudes. ExxonMobil is cautious about increasing investment, while Chevron expects to increase production by 120,000 barrels per day in 18 - 24 months, and Repsol expects to increase production by 100,000 barrels per day in two to three years [6] Group 5: Industry News - Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: In addition to Switzerland as an intermediate channel, the communication channel between Iran and the US special envoy remains open [8] - US President Trump: He is in contact with Iranian opposition leaders and is studying very tough options against Iran. The military is also studying this matter [8] - US President Trump: Cuba has relied on a large amount of oil and funds from Venezuela for years, but this will no longer happen. He strongly advises Cuba to reach an agreement quickly [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption. The data sources are Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [10][14][21][23]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump urged major oil companies to return to Venezuela to exploit its vast oil reserves, proposing a plan that could require at least $100 billion in investments to rebuild the country's oil industry [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Executives from major oil companies expressed skepticism about investing in Venezuela without significant legal and commercial reforms, with ExxonMobil's CEO stating the country is currently in an "uninvestable" state [1][5] - Chevron's executives showed a more positive stance, indicating potential for increasing production from existing joint ventures in Venezuela [6] - Other companies like Shell and Repsol expressed readiness to invest if U.S. sanctions are lifted, highlighting a willingness to explore opportunities in Venezuela [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The announcement did not lead to significant market volatility, with oil prices remaining stable, reflecting investor skepticism about the feasibility of the proposed plan [2] - Chevron's stock price fell by 1% following the news, indicating market concerns over geopolitical risks associated with increased exposure to Venezuela [2] Group 3: Investment Challenges - Analysts noted that restoring Venezuela's oil production could require hundreds of billions of dollars due to years of neglect and mismanagement, posing a significant barrier to investment [7] - Trump's proposal to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel raised concerns that such low prices could hinder profitability for oil companies investing in Venezuela [7] Group 4: Security and Legal Uncertainties - Trump's assurances of "complete security" for companies were seen as vague, with concerns that safety would depend on the Venezuelan regime rather than U.S. military support [8] - Legal experts highlighted the gap between interest in potential investments and the actual commitment to spending, emphasizing the need for clearer regulations and easier access to licenses from U.S. authorities [8]

美国能源部长克里斯・赖特本周在迈阿密举行的高盛能源会议上发言时，重申了特朗普的表态——在美 国军方于上周六抓捕尼古拉斯・马杜罗后，美国石油企业已准备好投入数十亿美元，助力这个南美国家 重建石油经济。 不过，部分能源领域投资者对此持怀疑态度，他们对在委内瑞拉开展相关投资的成本提出质疑。尽管委 内瑞拉拥有全球已探明储量最大的原油资源，投资者仍持续担忧该国的政治稳定性，以及加拉加斯临时 政府（由德尔茜・罗德里格斯执掌）是否值得信任。 "投资者希望看到长期稳定的局势，以及完善的财税条款，以此规避资产国有化风险——毕竟委内瑞拉 曾有过相关先例。"美国世纪投资公司投资组合经理兼高级投资分析师David Byrns表示。该公司是雪佛 龙与埃克森美孚的主要股东之一。 雪佛龙与康菲石油公司在迈阿密会议期间召开了闭门会议，多位与会者透露，两家企业的高管几乎未就 委内瑞拉相关事宜透露过多信息，但明确一点：不会作出草率决策。 雪佛龙与康菲石油暂未就此事回应置评请求。 知情人士称，周五的白宫会议将有能源部长克里斯・赖特、国务卿马尔科・卢比奥、内政部长道格・伯 古姆，以及17家大型企业代表出席。特朗普预计将在会上敦促石油企业高管加大投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - European energy companies Eni and Repsol are facing challenges in recovering approximately $6 billion in gas payments from Venezuela, with U.S. officials showing indifference towards the debt situation [1] Group 1: Company Challenges - Eni and Repsol are struggling to recover significant gas payments owed by Venezuela, totaling around $6 billion [1] - The lack of engagement from U.S. officials regarding the debt recovery efforts is complicating the situation for these companies [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The ongoing issues with debt recovery may impact the financial stability and operational strategies of European energy companies involved in the Venezuelan market [1]

Core Insights - Libya holds Africa's largest proved crude oil reserves at 48 billion barrels and aims to increase production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028, with over 40 companies expressing interest in its first oil field licensing round since 2011 [2][3] Group 1: Oil Production and Reserves - Libya's crude oil production was approximately 1.65 million bpd before the civil war, which has since dropped to around 20,000 bpd during the conflict but has recovered to just under 1.4 million bpd [1][2] - The National Oil Corporation (NOC) plans to enhance oil recovery techniques to increase production capacity by about 775,000 bpd at existing fields [1][2] - The Sirte basin contains around 80% of Libya's recoverable reserves and most of its production capacity [1] Group 2: Political and Economic Context - The political stability of Libya remains uncertain, with previous agreements aimed at addressing oil revenue distribution and financial stabilization not fully implemented [3][4] - The blockade from January to September 2020 resulted in a loss of at least US$9.8 billion in hydrocarbons revenues, highlighting the economic impact of political instability [3] Group 3: International Interest and Investment - Major Western firms, including Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil, are re-entering Libya, indicating potential for increased investment and production [2][4] - The NOC's collaboration with international companies aims to leverage their presence to foster political stability and enhance oil production [4][5] - BP has signed a memorandum to evaluate redevelopment options for the Sarir and Messla fields, reflecting strong interest in Libya's energy sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military action by the U.S. leading to the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has prompted a reevaluation of control over Venezuela's oil industry, presenting both opportunities and risks for foreign investors, particularly in the context of a potential pro-U.S. government [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The geopolitical shift in Venezuela may allow for a reconstruction of its energy sector, which has been in decline for years, potentially benefiting companies like Chevron if a supportive government emerges [1][3]. - Venezuela's oil production has plummeted from a peak of approximately 3.5 million barrels per day in 1997 to about 950,000 barrels per day currently, with exports around 550,000 barrels per day, indicating a significant market opportunity for international firms capable of investment and technological upgrades [3][6]. Group 2: Short-term Supply Risks - Concerns about short-term supply disruptions are primarily linked to uncertainties in the commercial payment chain, as buyers may halt transactions due to unclear authority in Venezuela [4]. - Despite these concerns, Chevron is expected to maintain an export volume of 150,000 barrels per day, which is crucial for alleviating supply pressures in the market [4]. Group 3: Long-term Recovery Challenges - The recovery of Venezuela's oil industry faces severe challenges due to decades of underinvestment and deteriorating infrastructure, requiring annual capital injections of at least $10 billion and a stable security environment for any meaningful turnaround [2][6]. - Experts warn that even with a change in government, significant investment and time will be necessary to restore the oil sector, making immediate increases in production unlikely [6].

Core Viewpoint - The arrest of Nicolás Maduro has intensified scrutiny on Venezuela's oil industry, prompting investors to reevaluate control over the country's crude resources and the potential for revival after years of decline [1] Group 1: Control and Production - Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state-owned oil company, maintains majority control over oil production and reserves in Venezuela [2] - Chevron operates in Venezuela through its own production and a joint venture with PDVSA, while Russian and Chinese firms also have partnerships, but PDVSA retains majority control [2] - Venezuela's oil output peaked at approximately 3.5 million barrels per day in 1997, but has since fallen to an estimated 950,000 barrels per day, with around 550,000 barrels per day exported [3] Group 2: Potential Changes and Impacts - A shift to a more pro-U.S. and pro-investment government could position Chevron favorably to expand its role in Venezuela's oil sector, with European companies like Repsol and Eni also likely to benefit [4] - Any regime change could disrupt the commercial chain for Venezuelan oil exports, leading to potential halts in exports as buyers may be uncertain about payment channels [5] - The shadow fleet, which includes tankers operating outside traditional systems, has been crucial for transporting oil from Venezuela amidst U.S. sanctions [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the uncertainty, Chevron is expected to continue exporting 150,000 barrels per day, which may limit immediate supply impacts, although broader uncertainty could introduce a short-term risk premium of about $3 per barrel [6] - The oil market is currently trending towards oversupply, with analysts suggesting that the immediate impact of Venezuelan developments is minimal [7] - The long-term recovery of Venezuela's oil industry faces significant challenges due to decades of neglect, requiring substantial investments estimated at $10 billion annually to rehabilitate infrastructure [9][10]

Core Insights - The article discusses expectations for European markets ahead of 2026, emphasizing the importance of focusing on European small-cap stocks with a 5-7 year investment horizon [1] - The author advocates for a diversified portfolio that includes both dividend and growth stocks to optimize returns [1] Investment Strategy - The investment group European Small Cap Ideas is highlighted, which provides exclusive research on European investment opportunities, particularly in the small-cap sector [1] - The focus is on high-quality investment ideas that aim for capital gains and dividend income, ensuring continuous cash flow for investors [1] Portfolio Features - The article mentions two model portfolios: the European Small Cap Ideas portfolio and the European REIT Portfolio, which are designed to cater to different investment strategies [1] - Weekly updates and educational content are provided to help investors understand European market opportunities better [1] - An active chat room is available for discussions on the latest developments regarding portfolio holdings [1]