What happened: XD launched 'TapTap Create', an AI game creation tool, on January 30, 2026, with XD chairman Mr. Huang live-streaming about the product launch himself. XD positioned the tool as a core 'AI Game Creation Agent', and the key objective is to break down the technical barriers of game creation, enabling average users with no programming or art background to transform their creative ideas into playable games. 'TapTap Create' is not a traditional game engine but rather a platform that utilizes natur ...

Group 1 - Alibaba Group Holding Limited is recognized as one of the Top 15 Chinese Companies on US Exchanges [1] - Moonshot AI, backed by Alibaba, has upgraded its flagship model Kimi K2.5, claiming superior video-generation and agentic capabilities compared to top U.S. AI models [1] - Alibaba's generative AI model Qwen3-Max-Thinking has also been reported to outperform U.S. rivals on a benchmark test called 'Humanity's Last Exam' [2] Group 2 - China has approved three major tech companies, including Alibaba, to purchase over 400,000 Nvidia H200 AI chips, indicating a significant move in the AI sector [2] - This approval is part of China's strategy to ease trade tensions with the U.S. and supports the ongoing AI advancements by Chinese tech giants [2] - Alibaba is positioned at the forefront of China's generative AI expansion, highlighting its strategic importance in the tech landscape [2][3]

Core Insights - Jim Cramer discussed NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) in detail, highlighting its recent investment in CoreWeave and dismissing concerns about circular deals as unfounded [2] - NVIDIA's shares have increased by 48% over the past year and by 1.5% year-to-date, indicating strong market performance [2] - Analysts from Needham expressed optimism regarding the partnership with CoreWeave, suggesting it could help develop up to 5GW in capacity [2] Market Analysis - Stifel reiterated a $250 share price target and a Buy rating for NVIDIA, emphasizing potential benefits from H200 sales to China [2] - Recent media reports indicated that the Chinese government has encouraged local tech giants to prepare for purchasing NVIDIA's AI chips, although skepticism remains regarding the government's true intentions [2][3] Skepticism on China Sales - Cramer expressed skepticism about the reliability of reports claiming the Chinese government is supportive of NVIDIA's sales, citing a history of similar narratives involving companies like Bytedance, Alibaba, and Tencent [3] - He noted that while NVIDIA may be undervalued, the current market dynamics do not indicate a shortage, particularly in light of Intel's performance [3]

Group 1 - WeRide Inc. (NASDAQ:WRD) is recognized as one of the best autonomous vehicle stocks to buy, with all 13 analysts covering the stock giving it a Buy rating, and a price target of $15.3 set by Jeff Chung from Citi [1] - The company launched the WeRide Go Robotaxi service as a Mini Program within WeChat, allowing over 1 billion users to book fully driverless rides without needing a separate app [2] - The Robotaxi service is currently operational in Guangzhou's Huangpu district, Beijing's Yizhuang district, and Abu Dhabi, contributing to the company's goal of deploying tens of thousands of Robotaxis by 2030 [3] Group 2 - WeRide Inc. provides autonomous driving products and solutions across various industries, including mobility, logistics, and sanitation in China [3]

Macquarie Equity Research 26 January 2026 China Internet Entering a dramatic stage of agentic reform Key Points Chinese New Year: Navigating a volatile transition China's internet sector is in a period of sharp transition as it reshapes online traffic flows and hierarchy. While we remain confident in China's long-term AI sovereignty, the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday could mark a key point where macroeconomic weakness meets aggressive reform. In this report, we introduce a Three-Level Traffic Order (3LT ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The US semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth in cloud capital expenditures (capex), with projections for CY26 and CY27 showing increases of +36% and +15% year-over-year (YoY) respectively [1][11] - Major US hyperscalers, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, are expected to report strong earnings, with Q4 global hyperscale capex projected at $141 billion, reflecting a +9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and +59% YoY increase [1][11] - TSMC's capex guidance for CY26 is approximately $54 billion, indicating a +32% YoY increase, which serves as a leading indicator for overall industry spending [1][11] Capital Expenditure Insights - The total capex for major cloud vendors is expected to reach $641 billion in CY26 and $739 billion in CY27, marking a significant increase from previous estimates [1][12] - The free cash flow (FCF) for top hyperscalers is projected to decline to ~$100 billion in CY26 from $260 billion in CY24, but remains positive, indicating a cushion for continued spending [3][14] - AI semiconductors are anticipated to constitute 70-80% of capex by CY28, up from ~60% in CY26, highlighting the growing importance of AI in capital expenditures [4][11] Key Catalysts and Future Outlook - Companies like Amazon and Google are expected to guide their CY26 capex outlooks up by strong double digits, with estimates ranging from +20% to +40% YoY [2][11] - The introduction of new AI models, such as Blackwell-trained models, is expected to reignite spending momentum due to significant performance improvements [2][19] - The profitability concerns regarding the extended depreciation schedules for AI infrastructure assets have been raised, with cloud vendors now commonly depreciating IT hardware over 4-6 years compared to the historical 3-4 years [23][25] Additional Insights - The cash flow from operations for cloud capex is projected to reach 75-85% of total operating cash flow in CY25-28, which is elevated compared to historical levels but deemed sustainable given the potential for AI infrastructure investments [14][15] - The demand for AI-related semiconductors is expected to continue growing, with key players like NVDA, AMD, and AVGO positioned to benefit from this trend [1][4] - The overall sentiment in the semiconductor industry remains optimistic, with a focus on AI and cloud infrastructure as primary growth drivers [1][3][4]

Summary of the Conference Call on China Internet Sector Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Internet Sector - **Growth Forecast**: Overall ad growth in China is expected to remain stable at **9.5%** in 2026, slightly down from **9.6%** in 2025, outperforming underlying consumption growth projected at **4.8%** and **4.4%** for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2][3] Key Drivers of Growth - **Demand from Non-Cyclical Verticals**: Significant growth is anticipated in sectors such as gaming (both app-based and mini-games), internet services (driven by short dramas and AI tools), and education (primarily hardware) [2] - **Supply-Side Upgrades**: Improvements in ad technology, particularly through AI, are expected to enhance ad efficiency and unlock new budgets, partially offsetting macroeconomic headwinds [2][3] Impact of New Ad Tax Policy - **Policy Details**: Effective from October 1, 2025, marketing expenses exceeding **15%** of revenue (or **30%** for cosmetics, healthcare, and non-alcoholic beverages) will no longer be tax-deductible, increasing the cost of sales and marketing (S&M) for advertisers [3] - **Limited Negative Impact**: The overall impact of the new tax policy is less severe than anticipated, with factors such as variations in enforcement and reclassification of costs helping to mitigate the effects [3] AI's Role in Advertising - **Increased Ad Budgets**: Post-2025, ad agencies reported a **high single-digit to 10%** increase in ad budgets on platforms with advanced AI capabilities [4] - **Key Use Cases**: AI is improving ROI by up to **10%** through better targeting, ad material generation, and bidding strategies. Adoption of AI-powered platforms is also increasing, lowering entry barriers for SMEs [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Tencent**: Expected to maintain ad revenue growth of **+18% YoY** in Q4, supported by ad tech upgrades and improved connectivity within its ecosystem [8] - **Bilibili**: Advertiser perceptions are improving due to better collaboration with major platforms, leading to enhanced ad ROI [8] - **Kuaishou**: Noted for significant ad tech improvements, positioning it as a leader in ad efficiency [8] - **Baidu**: Continues to face revenue decline but is seeing increased contributions from AI-native products [8] Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report favors Tencent, Bilibili, and Kuaishou due to their strong growth drivers and positions in the ad tech landscape [9] Risks and Challenges - **Competitive Landscape**: The sector faces risks from evolving competition, fast-moving technology trends, and regulatory changes [13] - **Profitability Concerns**: Companies like JD.com are under scrutiny for low visibility on profitability and the impact of restructuring efforts [14] Conclusion - The China Internet sector is poised for stable growth driven by advancements in ad technology and demand from non-cyclical sectors, despite challenges posed by new tax policies and competitive pressures. Key players like Tencent, Bilibili, and Kuaishou are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while risks remain in the form of regulatory changes and market competition [2][3][9]

Summary of China Internet AI Labs Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the AI lab sector within the China Internet industry, specifically discussing the recent IPOs of Z.ai (also known as Zhipu, Knowledge Atlas) and Minimax, which have significantly influenced AI sentiment in China since January 2026 [1][11]. Key Companies - **Z.ai**: Focuses on enterprise and developer markets, primarily offering on-premise solutions. Reported significant revenue growth and has been recognized for its model development progress [2][17]. - **Minimax**: Initially focused on consumer applications, now pivoting towards enterprise solutions. It has reported substantial revenue growth and aims for international expansion [3][14]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Sentiment**: The IPOs of Z.ai and Minimax have led to a surge in AI-related investments, with Z.ai and Minimax shares increasing by 101% and 196% respectively since their listings [11]. - **Model Development**: Both companies are positioned as "model as a product" entities, with their latest models ranking highly on global benchmarks. Z.ai's GLM-4.7 and Minimax's M2.1 models are noted for their competitive performance [12][28]. - **Revenue Growth**: Z.ai reported a 325% year-on-year revenue growth for H1 2025, while Minimax reported a 175% increase for 9M 2025, indicating strong market demand despite low initial revenue bases [12][64]. - **Economic Viability**: The companies are expected to maintain solid gross margins (60-70%) and are focusing on leveraging model training costs to enhance profitability. The anticipated increase in training spend at over 30% CAGR is seen as a positive indicator for growth [4][53]. Strategic Directions - **Minimax's Shift**: The company is transitioning from consumer-focused applications to enterprise solutions, with 73% of its revenue coming from overseas markets in 9M 2025. This pivot is driven by the need to compete against larger domestic players [3][14][49]. - **Z.ai's Focus**: Z.ai continues to prioritize enterprise clients, with 85% of its revenue from on-premise deployments. The company has a strong customer base, with 8,000 enterprise clients as of H1 2025 [19][66]. Financial Metrics - **Valuation Comparisons**: The conference highlighted the valuation metrics of various companies within the China Internet sector, with Tencent and Alibaba being top picks. Z.ai and Minimax's financials suggest a path to breakeven at revenue scales between $500 million to $1 billion [8][54]. - **Cost Structures**: Both companies face significant costs related to cloud hosting and compute, with Minimax's cloud costs representing 85.1% of revenue in 2024. R&D expenses are also substantial, with Minimax and Z.ai spending $180 million and RMB 1.6 billion respectively on R&D through their recent reporting periods [67][68]. Additional Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: There is a strong market appetite for AI investments, although some investors express concerns about high valuations based on price-to-ARR multiples. The ongoing competition from established players like Tencent and Alibaba poses challenges for new entrants [5][56]. - **Future Outlook**: The ability of both companies to deliver competitive next-generation models will be crucial for their success. The anticipated launch of new models in Q1 2026 is expected to drive further growth [52][53]. Conclusion - The conference call provided valuable insights into the evolving landscape of AI labs in China, highlighting the competitive dynamics, growth strategies, and financial health of Z.ai and Minimax. The overall sentiment remains bullish, with expectations for continued innovation and market expansion in the AI sector [7][11].

Market Overview - US stocks have reached new record highs, primarily driven by the tech sector, with upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies like Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft being closely monitored [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates, shifting focus back to economic conditions, while also facing scrutiny regarding its leadership and ongoing investigations [2][37] Company-Specific Developments - Amazon has announced a reduction of 16,000 jobs, bringing total layoffs to 30,000 over three months, as part of efforts to streamline operations and reduce bureaucracy [3][4] - The CEO of Amazon indicated that AI advancements will further reduce workforce needs as the company automates more processes [4] - Starbucks reported a 4% increase in same-store sales in the US for the first time in two years, although overall earnings missed expectations [34] - GE Vernova's stock is under pressure despite solid fourth-quarter results and raised guidance, primarily due to a key metric, EBITDA, missing expectations [35] Sector Insights - The tech sector's positioning has been neutral, with expectations of growth slowing in the coming quarters, yet the current setup for mega-cap tech growth appears positive [10][11] - The labor market is showing signs of slowing, with hiring rates at pandemic lows, indicating a cautious approach from companies amid economic uncertainty [16][18] - The dollar's weakness is seen as a mixed factor for corporate earnings, providing a translation benefit but lacking in volume growth [26][28] Earnings Season and Economic Outlook - Earnings season is underway, with expectations for a broadening of growth across sectors, as evidenced by the increase in sectors reporting positive growth [25] - The market is currently in a "wait and see" mode regarding hiring, with expectations that hiring will gradually pick up as earnings improve [21][24]

Let's bring back our panel. Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler, Joel Kina of Web Bush, and Brian Gardner of Stifel. And we still have so much to get to here before the end of the hour.We just talked about dollar right before the break. So Craig, I'm going to come to you on this one because you got the dollar index falling below a key technical level, four-year low, and this decoupling again between the dollar and treasuries, which reminds me of liberation day, post liberation day market trading last year. >> Yo ...