2025年06月24日 证券研究报告 | 从Circle上市， 探索稳定币与交易所的合作模式 行业研究 · 行业专题 互联网 · 互联网Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） • 全球稳定币市场规模已突破2500亿美元，行业呈现双寡头格局，USDT和USDC两者合计占84%的市场份额。整个加密货币市场总市值达3.35 万亿美元，稳定币占比7.48%，稳定币市场规模过去五年复合增速超80%，应用场景不断拓展。其中，Tether发行的USDT是全球最早也是 最大的稳定币，占60%的市场份额。Circle发行的USDC是全球第二大稳定币，市占率24%。USDC底层为美债与美元1:1储备，以合规性和透 明度为核心优势。 • Circle:作为USDC发行方在2025年6月5日登陆纽交所，作为"稳定币第一股"股价在十余天内累计涨幅超675%。商业模式主要为储备资产 利息收入、占总收入比例超99%。伴随着2025年6月17日美国参议院通过《GENIUS法案》，政策环境逐渐明晰，为稳定币市场发展提供土 壤。本文对稳定币未来市场空间与Circle财务数据进行拆分预测，并对比讨论Circle与其他加密市场相关标的估值情况。 • Cir ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the stablecoin industry, particularly focusing on the implications of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation [4]. Core Insights - Stablecoins are crucial infrastructure in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, designed to maintain price stability by pegging their value to stable underlying assets [8][9]. - The global trading volume of stablecoins has seen exponential growth, with daily average trading volume increasing from $432 million in 2019 to $84.143 billion in 2024, representing a CAGR of 187.1% [2][42]. - The introduction of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation is expected to create structural impacts on the non-bank financial sector, allowing qualified non-bank institutions to participate in stablecoin issuance [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. What are Stablecoins? - Stablecoins are a special type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain price stability by pegging their value to stable assets such as fiat currencies, commodities, or algorithms [8]. - They serve as a bridge between traditional finance and the volatile cryptocurrency market, facilitating transactions, payments, and hedging [9]. 2. Core Mechanism of Stablecoins - Stablecoins can be categorized into four main types based on their collateral: fiat-collateralized, commodity-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic [23][24]. 3. Core Value of Stablecoins - Stablecoins act as a payment tool, providing a low-volatility "value benchmark" for transactions in the cryptocurrency market [29]. - They serve as a value storage mechanism, allowing users to convert volatile assets into stablecoins to mitigate market risks [34]. - Stablecoins enhance transaction efficiency by reducing costs and improving speed, especially in cross-border payments [35]. 4. Global Regulatory Mechanisms for Stablecoins - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation aims to create a robust regulatory environment, requiring all stablecoin issuers to obtain licenses, thereby preventing regulatory arbitrage [15][16]. - The regulation emphasizes a "same activity, same risk, same regulation" principle, ensuring that stablecoin activities are subject to stringent oversight [13]. 5. Impact on Non-Bank Financial Institutions - The regulation is expected to lead to compliance upgrades and create new business opportunities for non-bank institutions, with a focus on major players like ZhongAn Online, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and LianLian Digital [3][22].

《华尔街日报》报道称，最新的例证是几家加密初创公司，包括Circle、BitGo、Coinbase Global （COIN）和Paxos，它们都在考虑，甚至已经计划以某种形式申请美国的银行牌照。 Coinbase的一位发言人对媒体表示，"Coinbase正在积极评估这一选项，但目前尚未做出正式决定。"与 此同时，美国银行(BAC.N)则表示，如果国会出台相关立法，该行愿意发行自己的稳定币。美国银行是 全美第二大贷款机构，该行首席执行官布莱恩·莫伊尼汉在今年2月表示，"如果他们立法允许，我们就 会进入这一业务领域。" 特朗普2.0正在金融界催生出新的融合趋势：一些加密货币公司考虑申请银行牌照，一些传统银行则在 考虑发行自己的数字资产。随着特朗普政府放松了对加密业务和传统银行巨头的监管，这种融合正在加 速推进。 "部分传统银行会接纳这一趋势，并直接提供加密相关的产品，"BitGo首席执行官迈克·贝尔希（Mike Belshe）表示。"与此同时，加密公司也在向传统金融靠拢，比如BitGo会提供更多传统金融服务。" 上周，美联储撤销了此前警告银行不要涉足加密业务的指导意见，标志着银行与加密世界之间的这道屏 障被特朗 ...

Group 1: Mastercard's Initiative - Mastercard announced plans to offer merchants the option to accept payments and settlements in "stablecoins," marking a significant milestone for stablecoins in the cryptocurrency space [1] - The company is collaborating with payment processor Nuvei and stablecoin issuers Circle and Paxos to facilitate payments using cryptocurrency protocols [1] - Mastercard is also partnering with cryptocurrency exchange OKX to launch a new electronic credit card, further expanding its support for cryptocurrency transactions [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The bipartisan "GENIUS Act" aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoin payments in the U.S., having passed a committee vote in March and moving towards full legislative action [1] - Standard Chartered forecasts that if the GENIUS Act is passed, the global stablecoin market could surge to $2 trillion within three years [1][3] Group 3: Market Growth and Impact - The market capitalization of dollar-pegged stablecoins has skyrocketed from under $30 billion to $220 billion in just five years, now exceeding 0.8% of the U.S. dollar M2 money supply [3] - Approximately 85%-90% of stablecoin reserves are directed towards short-term U.S. Treasury securities, indicating a significant demand source for the bond market [3] - Analysts predict that the growth of stablecoins could create a structural demand for short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially accounting for about 40% of the Treasury's short-term issuance in 2023 [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Mastercard is expanding its payment options for merchants by introducing support for stablecoin transactions, reflecting a growing regulatory clarity around digital assets linked to fiat currencies [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - Mastercard is collaborating with payment processors like Nuvei and stablecoin issuers such as Circle and Paxos to facilitate cryptocurrency payments [1] - The company is also partnering with cryptocurrency exchange OKX to launch a new card [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The introduction of the GENIUS Act aims to create a regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States, having passed a Senate committee vote earlier this year [1] - The act is part of a broader effort to provide clarity and guidance on the use of stablecoins in the financial system [1] Group 3: Market Potential - Standard Chartered Bank estimates that the stablecoin market could surge to $2 trillion within the next three years [1]

订阅数字货币资讯 +订阅 加密货币行业敲开了银行世界的大门 金十数据4月21日讯，两年前，在FTX和两家对加密货币友好的银行倒闭后，监管机构对加密货币进行 了打击，这促使一些传统金融机构与该行业分道扬镳。现在，特朗普承诺让美国成为"比特币超级大 国"，这为加密货币与银行体系更加紧密地交织在一起奠定了基础。据知情人士透露，包括Circle和 BitGo在内的许多加密公司计划申请银行牌照或执照。其他人说，加密货币交易所Coinbase Global和稳 定币公司Paxos也在考虑类似的举措。与此同时，特朗普政府正采取行动，将加密货币纳入主流金融， 国会也提出了两项法案，将为稳定币建立监管框架，让人们可以轻松地买卖波动性更大的加密货币。该 立法将要求稳定币发行人获得监管机构的特许状或许可证。 （华尔街日报） ...

Core Insights - Visa is set to join the Global Dollar Network (USDG) stablecoin consortium, marking it as the first traditional finance entity to participate in this initiative aimed at enhancing connectivity and liquidity among participants [1][2] - The USDG consortium includes notable members such as Paxos, Robinhood, Kraken, and others, and focuses on a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar to promote its global use [2][3] - The Global Dollar Network aims to return nearly all rewards to its participants, contrasting with existing unregulated stablecoins that retain reserve economics [4] Company Developments - Visa's involvement in the USDG consortium aligns with its recent launch of the Visa Tokenized Asset Platform (VTAP), which allows banks to issue fiat-backed tokens, including stablecoins [5][6] - The VTAP leverages Visa's expertise in smart contract technologies to facilitate the issuance and transfer of fiat-backed tokens over blockchain networks, reinforcing Visa's leadership in digital payments [6] Industry Trends - The adoption of stablecoins is increasing in mainstream financial activities such as B2B payments, capital markets, lending, cross-border payments, and treasury management [5] - Stablecoins are evolving to become integral components of real-world financial infrastructure, moving away from their previous reliance on crypto exchanges [4]