AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 对科技股投资者而言，今年开局颇为艰难。八家市值超过1万亿美元的美国科技公司中，有七家的股价 年初至今录得下跌。唯一的例外是英伟达(NVDA.O)。截至周二收盘，这家芯片制造商在2026年股价上 涨了3.4%。 周三美股盘后，英伟达将公布最新的季度财报。根据FactSet的共识预期，英伟达预计将在第四财季实现 经调整后每股收益1.54美元、营收661亿美元。 其中，1月季度的数据中心业务收入预计为607亿美元。就整个财年来看，FactSet跟踪的分析师预计公司 营收将达到2138亿美元。展望未来，分析师目前预计英伟达第一财季营收为729亿美元。 华尔街普遍看好未来的AI支出 目前看来，华尔街对这家公司的处境已有相当清晰的判断。这是因为其最大的一批客户几周前已陆续公 布业绩，并向投资者明确表示，在AI基础设施上的巨额投入只会进一步增加。 韦德布什证券的分析师在周一发布的英伟达财报前瞻报告中写道： "我们对2026年自然年超大规模云厂商资本开支的预测已超过此前预期……由于服务器和AI 基础设施构成未来支出的主体，我们预计AI投资的增长幅度将略高于整体资本开支 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is expected to report significant revenue growth and strong guidance, but its current stock valuation raises concerns for potential investors [2][3][8]. Business Performance - Nvidia's fiscal Q3 results showed a 62% year-over-year revenue increase to $57.0 billion, up from 56% growth in fiscal Q2 [5]. - The data center segment remains a key driver, with revenue rising 66% year-over-year to $51.2 billion in fiscal Q3, compared to $41.1 billion in fiscal Q2 [5]. - The company's GAAP gross margin was 73.4% in fiscal Q3, slightly down from 74.6% a year earlier [6]. Demand and Guidance - Nvidia's CFO noted that demand for AI infrastructure is exceeding expectations, with the GPU installed base fully utilized [7]. - For fiscal Q4, Nvidia guided revenue of approximately $65.0 billion, implying about 65.4% year-over-year growth compared to $39.3 billion in the same quarter last year [7]. Valuation Concerns - Nvidia's stock is currently trading at around 48 times earnings, indicating a premium valuation that reflects high growth expectations [8]. - There is a risk of valuation compression if growth rates decline or if pricing power diminishes over time, leading to ordinary returns despite continued growth [9]. - A significant margin of safety is preferred before investing in Nvidia, as current valuations do not support a forecast of a 15% annual return [9]. Market Context - Nvidia's market capitalization stands at $4.7 trillion, making it a focal point for investors and potentially impacting broader market indexes [2]. - The stock's current price range is between $187.40 and $193.77, with a 52-week range of $86.62 to $212.19 [10]. Investment Strategy - While Nvidia's business fundamentals are strong, the stock's valuation does not present an attractive entry point for investment at this time [12]. - Investors who believe in the long-term potential of AI may consider starting a small position, but should be cautious of the associated valuation risks [11].

其三是存储芯片与电源短缺的潜在瓶颈问题。摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore及其团队表示，尽管相关 产品短缺理论上可能成为发展阻碍，但当前AI计算需求强劲，尚未看到此类问题对英伟达业务产生实 际影响。 其四是毛利率的变化趋势。交易者需关注英伟达管理层将利润率压力归为暂时性因素还是结构性因素， 韦勒指出，若利润率展望不及市场预期，即便单季业绩超出预期，公司股票仍可能遭到抛售。其预计英 伟达股价反应优先级依次为业绩指引、Blackwell产能爬坡进展、毛利率轨迹变化。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 北京时间周四早间，英伟达即将公布2025财年第四财季财报，华尔街正高度关注本次财报及后续财报会 的四大核心看点。 作为美股AI赛道的核心标的，英伟达此前第三财季营收超出分析师预期，达到570.1亿美元，同比增长 62.5%，当时其给出的第四财季营收预期为650亿美元，上下浮动2%；GAAP毛利率预计为74.8%，上下 浮动0.5%。据TradingView统计，当前华尔街市场预期英伟达第四财季收入将增至636亿美元，同比增长 68.3%，不过该涨幅低于去年同期 ...

优等生成绩单已经呼之欲出？ 作为过去两年美股最炙手可热的"AI宠儿"，英伟达的财报历来都能超出华尔街的预期，三个月前也是如 此：英伟达的第三财季营收超出分析师预期，达到570.1亿美元，同比增长62.5%。在当时，英伟达预计 其第四财季营收为650亿美元，上下浮动2% ；GAAP毛利率预计为74.8%，上下浮动0.5%。 目前，据TradingView统计，华尔街市场预期英伟达第四财季的收入将继续迅猛增长至636亿美元，同比 增长68.3%——不过这一涨幅低于去年同期77.9%的增幅。 过去30天里，追踪英伟达业绩的分析师普遍重申了他们的预期，即预计英伟达将继续保持强劲的业务增 长势头。 纵观英伟达的竞争对手，部分公司已经公布了第四季度业绩，这让我们得以窥见未来的发展趋势： Qorvo第四季度的营收同比增长 8.4%，符合分析师预期；AMD的营收则同比增长了34.1%，超出预期 6%。但尽管如此，市场的反应却很冷淡：业绩公布后，Qorvo 股价下跌6.8%，AMD 股价则累计下跌了 17.3%。 2月25日，北京时间周四早间，英伟达即将公布2025财年第四财季财报。目前，对于这一份财报及之后 的财报会，共有四 ...

European stocks are seen opening a tad higher on Wednesday as investors react to U.S. President Donald Trump's State of the Union address and await earnings from Nivida for fresh signals on the durability of artificial intelligence demand.As new global tariffs take effect at 10 percent, Trump slammed last week's Supreme Court tariff decision as "very unfortunate," adding that U.S. trading partners "want to keep the deal that they already made" with his administration.In his State of the Union address, Trum ...

英伟达即将公布季度财报，市场预期普遍乐观，但分析师认为股价反应可能依然平淡，真正的催化剂或许要等到三月 的英伟达GPU技术大会（GTC）。 2月25日美股盘后，AI超级巨头英伟达将发布最新财报，财报电话会议定于太平洋时间2月25日下午2:00，即北京时间2 月26日早上6:00举行。 法国巴黎银行分析师David O'Connor预计财报基调"相当积极"，但亮眼数字未必能带动股价明显上涨。他认为，英伟 达可能将最具市场影响力的信息留到三月GTC大会再披露。 英伟达今年股价涨幅仅约2%，远落后于费城半导体指数同期16%的涨幅。AI芯片竞争格局、存储芯片成本上涨对毛利 率的压力，以及超大规模云厂商资本支出走向，是本次财报季投资者关注的几个核心问题。 根据FactSet综合预测，英伟达第四财季调整后每股收益预期为1.54美元，营收预期661亿美元，其中数据中心业务预期 607亿美元。全财年营收预期2138亿美元，第一财季营收前瞻预期729亿美元。 问题在于，过去几个季度强劲的业绩数据屡屡未能提振股价。市场对英伟达的预期已经相当充分，超预期的空间越来 越窄。O'Connor认为，投资者的注意力已提前转向三月GTC大会 ...

Ac t i o n | 23 Feb 2026 20:46:05 ET │ 31 pages China Communication Infrastructure CPO scale-up a new TAM, on top of upbeat 2027 pluggable demand CITI'S TAKE We evaluate the potential TAM for CPO optics supply chain in this report given the deployment in scale-up likely to come in late 2027. The optics supply chain will likely see stocking demand in 2H27. We assume 300/5k/209k units of CPO switches in 2025/26/27E (vs. prior 100k in 2027E) in which 169k units of CPO switch shipments are assumed for scale- up ...

AMD 12m Price Target: $240.00 Price: $196.60 Upside: 22.1% 24 February 2026 | 12:19PM EST Equity Research Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) Meta strategic partnership improves AMD's positioning and our confidence in execution to targets +1(212)357-1366 | anmol.makkar@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Lal Kablan Estimate changes What happened? We increase our non-GAAP EPS (ex SBC) estimates by ~16%/17% for CY27/28 respectively, as we factor in an incremental contribution from the Meta strategic partnership. NEU ...

Core Viewpoint - SanDisk (SNDK.US) has faced a significant challenge from Citron Research, which has established a short position against the company, arguing that the market has mispriced its stock amid a super cycle in storage chips [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Citron Research asserts that the market is pricing SanDisk similarly to Nvidia (NVDA.US), despite the latter having a competitive moat, while SanDisk's products are considered commodities [2]. - The demand and price surge for NAND flash memory is viewed as a typical cyclical phenomenon, nearing its peak, with historical precedents from 2008, 2012, and 2018 suggesting a similar outcome this time [2]. - Citron warns that the current supply shortage of NAND memory could quickly reverse, potentially disappearing after a single earnings call [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) is identified as a major threat to SanDisk, with Citron highlighting Samsung's strategy of prioritizing market share over profits for 30 years [2]. - Samsung is reportedly shifting tactics to directly compete in SanDisk's core market, indicating they will not sell products below a 50% gross margin and are moving their best chips into the high-end SSD market [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Concerns have been raised regarding the ongoing sell-off by Western Digital (WDC.US), a long-term investor and former parent company of SanDisk, which is divesting its remaining shares at prices 25% below current levels [3]. - Citron suggests that Western Digital's actions indicate a recognition that the cycle is nearing its peak, contrasting with the bullish sentiment being promoted to retail investors [3]. Group 4: Financial Performance - SanDisk recently reported a second-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, driven by strong demand for enterprise SSDs, and provided an optimistic outlook for the third quarter [4]. - The upcoming third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for May 15, is seen as a critical moment for assessing market confidence and the direction of the industry [4].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has risen approximately 7% to 8% over the past six months, underperforming compared to other AI-related stocks like TSMC (up 73%) and memory-related stocks (up 180% to 300%) [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nvidia is currently trading at a forecasted P/E ratio of 26 times for the fiscal year 2027, which is considered attractive value by the firm [1] - The firm anticipates Nvidia's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, ending January, to be $67.2 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 71%, exceeding the guidance upper limit of $66.3 billion [1] - For the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, the revenue forecast is $72.7 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 65%, with any guidance equal to or above $75 billion reinforcing the message of accelerating revenue growth [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The upcoming earnings report is seen as an opportunity to revitalize market narratives regarding Nvidia [1] - The firm maintains a "highly confident outperform" rating for Nvidia, with a target price set at $300 [1]