2026年注定是全球市场的"分化与颠覆之年"： 一边是中国股市慢牛雏形显现、日本经济逆袭崛起的确定性机遇，一边是美股暴跌90%与全球金融危机 的崩盘预警； AI既引爆算力革命与万亿独角兽风口，也引发"铜电荒"与失业潮隐忧。 贵金属、加密货币酝酿史诗级反弹，科技巨头争夺市值王座，多空阵营针锋相对，机遇与风险的边界从 未如此模糊。 本文整理了市场对2026年全球主要资产的十大重磅预测，带你直击未来的关键博弈与未来走向。 他强调，本轮泡沫覆盖股票、房地产及数字资产等多个领域，根源是2008年后决策者通过货币干预阻碍 经济自然重置，债务问题未彻底出清，激进赤字支出进一步放大泡沫。Harry特别指出，2026年初尤其 是1月为关键判断期，历史上1月首周及首月股市表现常预示全年走势，若1月表现疲弱，将印证其看空 判断。 三、华尔街"预言家"喊出黄金1万美元、白银200美元 高盛多次重申A股、H股超配评级，指出当前慢牛格局更稳固，内外资持续涌入，大量存量资金尚未入 市提供动力，尤其看好中小盘及民企龙头、人工智能等投资主题。 二、美股惊天大分化：标普500直冲8100点or暴跌90%？ 华尔街对2026年美股走势呈现空前极端 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock price experienced extreme volatility in 2025, soaring 42% in a single day in September before plummeting over 40%, yet still recording a 16% increase for the year, reflecting the ongoing debate in the tech industry regarding whether AI represents a generational opportunity or a potential risk [1] Group 1: Debt and Uncertainty - In early 2023, Oracle announced a joint venture with OpenAI and SoftBank, committing $500 billion to AI infrastructure, which initially sparked market enthusiasm [3] - Following the June earnings report, optimism around AI continued to drive stock prices, but a September report revealed Oracle's remaining performance obligations surged from $138 billion to $455 billion, far exceeding market expectations, leading to a record single-day stock price increase [3] - However, concerns about the returns on significant debt incurred for AI investments have emerged, with Oracle's stock dropping over 40% from its September peak [3] - Analysts noted that as Oracle and other companies issue more bonds, their leverage increases, raising associated risks [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategic Execution - Oracle's total debt rose 40% year-over-year to $124 billion, while cash outflows increased from $2.7 billion to $10 billion [5] - The company quietly disclosed in SEC filings that it would incur an additional $248 billion in data center leasing commitments from Q3 FY2026 to FY2028, which are not reflected on the balance sheet [5] - Analysts expressed concerns about Oracle's tight margin for error in executing its strategy compared to larger cloud service providers like Microsoft and Google [5] - Oracle's ability to generate cash flow from data centers remains uncertain, particularly as companies exploring AI profitability are still in the early stages [5] Group 3: AI Demand and Project Delays - Investors are skeptical about whether AI demand will meet the expectations set by tech companies' substantial investments [6] - Oracle indicated that if clients cannot pay, it can quickly repurpose its AI infrastructure for other customers [6] - There are concerns that delays in Oracle's data center projects could extend the return period for AI investments, with reports suggesting a postponement of completion dates from 2027 to 2028 [7] - Despite these challenges, Oracle is included in a new national AI initiative backed by the U.S. government, which could potentially help the company navigate its debt and project uncertainties [7]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Bank has downgraded Oracle's debt rating to "Underweight," warning that the company may exhaust its cash reserves by November 2026 [1][5]. Financial Health of Oracle - Oracle's cash reserves, currently around $11 billion, could be depleted by November 2026, leading to refinancing needs [7]. - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is at 500%, significantly higher than competitors like Amazon (50%) and Microsoft (30%) [7]. - Oracle's capital liability ratio stands at 86.33%, again exceeding that of Amazon (49.22%) and Microsoft (42.94%) [8]. - The total interest-bearing debt has doubled over the past decade to $111.6 billion, with over $100 billion in off-balance-sheet lease commitments [8]. Industry Trends - The issuance of debt related to U.S. data centers has surged to $25.4 billion in 2025, a 112% increase from 2024, and a staggering 1854% increase since 2022 [3][11]. - Major tech companies, including Meta, Oracle, and Alphabet, have entered the credit market at unprecedented levels, raising a total of $75 billion in bonds and loans in just September and October 2025 [3][11]. - Barclays estimates that the total bond issuance by large cloud service providers could reach $160 billion in 2025 [11]. Risks in AI Infrastructure Investment - The rapid expansion of AI-driven capital investments raises concerns about whether it is building a digital foundation or creating a debt bubble [3]. - The financial structure for data center financing is becoming more complex, increasing potential financial risks [13]. - The reliance on speculative building without long-term tenant agreements poses cash flow risks, especially if AI demand slows [13]. Market Sentiment - Oracle's credit default swap (CDS) prices have surged, reflecting heightened investor concerns about potential default risks [2][14]. - Analysts draw parallels between the current AI data center investment climate and the telecom crisis of 2000, highlighting the risks of over-leveraging and optimistic demand forecasts [16].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin falling below the $100,000 mark again, indicating potential bearish trends in the market [1][3]. Market Performance - On November 4, Bitcoin dropped to a low of $98,888.8 per coin, while Ethereum fell below $3,300, currently priced at $3,239.6, reflecting a 4.73% decline over 24 hours [3]. - SOL's price decreased to $153, down 3.57%, and other cryptocurrencies like XRP, HYPE, and BNB also saw declines [5]. - The current prices and 24-hour changes for major cryptocurrencies are as follows: - BTC: $100,278, -2.61% - ETH: $3,259, -3.99% - SOL: $153, -3.57% - XRP: $2.182, -4.85% - HYPE: $38.96, -2.64% - BNB: $944.6, +1.4% [6]. Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, more than 230,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $675 million, including $460 million from long positions and $210 million from short positions [6]. - The liquidation breakdown over different time frames is as follows: - 1 hour: $76.89 million total, with $71.25 million long and $5.64 million short - 4 hours: $120 million total, with $100 million long and $19.22 million short - 12 hours: $230 million total, with $130 million long and $93.10 million short - 24 hours: $670 million total, with $460 million long and $210 million short [7]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - On November 6, the World Economic Forum Chairman warned of potential bubbles in the cryptocurrency market, AI, and debt, suggesting a bearish outlook for cryptocurrencies [8]. - Analysts indicated that if Bitcoin falls below the 50-week moving average, it would confirm a bear market, a pattern observed in previous years [8]. - Peter Schiff commented that the opportunity to sell Bitcoin above $100,000 may not last long, suggesting that Bitcoin is overpriced rather than being sold at a discount [8]. - Analysts believe that for the market to regain risk appetite, multiple favorable signals are needed, including stabilization or a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [8].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin falling below the $100,000 mark, indicating a potential shift towards a bear market [1][8]. Market Performance - As of November 7, Bitcoin was priced at $100,031.4, reflecting a 24-hour decline of 2.71% [1]. - On November 4, Bitcoin had briefly dipped below $100,000, reaching a low of $98,888.8 [3]. - Ethereum also saw a decline, dropping to $3,239.6 with a 24-hour decrease of 4.73% [3]. - Solana's price fell below $160, currently at $153, marking a 24-hour drop of 3.57% [5]. - Other cryptocurrencies such as XRP, HYPE, and BNB also experienced declines [5]. Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, more than 230,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $675 million, including $460 million from long positions and $210 million from short positions [6][7]. Economic Context - World Economic Forum Chairman Borge Brende warned of potential bubbles in cryptocurrencies, AI, and debt markets, suggesting a broader financial instability [8]. - The rise in risk-averse sentiment was attributed to issues in the U.S. credit market, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. - Bitcoin's performance has disappointed the market, with analysts indicating that a drop below the 50-week moving average could confirm a bear market [8]. - Peter Schiff commented on Bitcoin's pricing, suggesting that it is overvalued and that selling now could allow for the purchase of undervalued physical assets [8]. - Analysts noted that a return to risk appetite in the market would require multiple favorable signals, including stabilization or a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a "V-shaped reversal" as signs of a resolution to the government shutdown emerged, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average turning positive towards the end of trading [1]. Market Performance - As of the market close, the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.21%, with a weekly decline of 3.04%. The S&P 500 rose by 0.13%, with a weekly decline of 1.63%. The Dow Jones increased by 0.16%, with a weekly decline of 1.21% [2]. Individual Stock Movements - Nvidia, a leading AI trading stock, saw a nearly 5% drop during the day but managed to close slightly up. Microsoft missed the opportunity to turn positive, marking its longest losing streak since November 2011, with a total market value loss exceeding $330 billion [8]. - Tesla's stock dropped over 3%, resulting in a market value loss of $54.5 billion (approximately 388.2 billion RMB) [10]. - Major Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 0.95% and a weekly decline of 2.62%. Xpeng Motors dropped over 6%, while other companies like Tencent Music and NIO saw declines exceeding 4% [12]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since June 2022, dropping from 53.6 to 50.3, influenced by concerns over the government shutdown and high inflation [18]. - Concerns about rising unemployment have increased, with 71% of respondents expecting a rise in the unemployment rate over the next year, more than double the proportion from the previous year [19].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin falling below the $100,000 mark again, leading to over 260,000 liquidations and a total liquidation amount of $675 million [1][6]. Market Performance - As of November 7, Bitcoin was priced at $100,031.4, reflecting a 24-hour decline of 2.71% [1]. - On November 4, Bitcoin had dropped to a low of $98,888.8, while Ethereum fell below $3,300, currently priced at $3,239.6, with a 24-hour drop of 4.73% [3]. - Other cryptocurrencies such as SOL and XRP also saw declines, with SOL dropping to $153 (3.57% decrease) and XRP down by 4.85% [5][6]. Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, more than 230,000 traders were liquidated, with long positions accounting for $460 million and short positions for $210 million [6]. - The liquidation amounts over different time frames included $67.5 million in the last 24 hours, with significant amounts also recorded in shorter intervals [7]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - The Chairman of the World Economic Forum warned of potential bubbles in cryptocurrencies, AI, and debt markets, which has heightened risk-averse sentiment [8]. - Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin falls below the 50-week moving average, it could signal the onset of a bear market, a pattern observed in previous years [8]. - Peter Schiff commented that the opportunity to sell Bitcoin above $100,000 may not last long, indicating that Bitcoin is overpriced rather than discounted [8]. - Market recovery may require multiple favorable signals, including stabilization or a decline in U.S. Treasury yields to restore investor confidence [8].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin falling below the $100,000 mark again, leading to widespread liquidations among traders [2][4][10]. Market Performance - As of January 7, Bitcoin is priced at $100,031.4, reflecting a 24-hour decline of 2.71% [2]. - On November 4, Bitcoin briefly dropped to a low of $98,888.8 [4]. - Ethereum has also seen a decline, currently priced at $3,239.6, with a 24-hour drop of 4.73% [4]. - SOL has fallen below $160, now at $153, with a 24-hour decrease of 3.57% [6]. Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, more than 230,000 traders have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $675 million. This includes $460 million from long positions and $210 million from short positions [8]. - Detailed liquidation statistics show: - 1-hour liquidation: $76.89 million total, with $71.25 million long and $5.64 million short - 4-hour liquidation: $120 million total, with $100 million long and $19.22 million short - 12-hour liquidation: $230 million total, with $130 million long and $93.10 million short - 24-hour liquidation: $675 million total, with $460 million long and $210 million short [9]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - The Chairman of the World Economic Forum, Børge Brende, has warned of potential bubbles in the cryptocurrency market, AI, and debt, indicating a broader concern for global financial stability [10]. - Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin falls below the 50-week moving average, it would signal the onset of a bear market, a pattern observed in previous years [11]. - Peter Schiff has commented that the opportunity to sell Bitcoin above $100,000 may not last long, suggesting that Bitcoin is overpriced rather than discounted [11]. - A return to risk appetite in the market requires multiple favorable signals, including stabilization or a decline in U.S. Treasury yields to boost market confidence [11].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin falling below the $100,000 mark again, leading to over 260,000 liquidations across the market [1][3]. Market Performance - As of November 7, Bitcoin was priced at $100,031.4, reflecting a 24-hour decline of 2.71% [1]. - On November 4, Bitcoin had dropped to a low of $98,888.8, while Ethereum fell below $3,300, currently priced at $3,239.6, with a 24-hour drop of 4.73% [3]. - Other cryptocurrencies such as SOL and XRP also saw declines, with SOL priced at $153 (down 3.57%) and XRP at $2.182 (down 4.85%) [3]. Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, more than 230,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $675 million, including $460 million from long positions and $210 million from short positions [4]. - The liquidation breakdown over different time frames shows significant amounts, with $67 million liquidated in the last hour and $230 million in the last 12 hours [5]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - World Economic Forum Chairman Börge Brende warned of potential bubbles in cryptocurrencies, AI, and debt markets, indicating a rising risk-off sentiment in global financial markets [6]. - Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin falls below the 50-week moving average, it could signal the onset of a bear market, a pattern observed in previous years [6]. - Peter Schiff commented that the opportunity to sell Bitcoin above $100,000 may not last long, suggesting that Bitcoin is overpriced compared to undervalued physical assets [6]. - Analysts believe that a return to risk appetite in the market requires multiple favorable signals, including stabilization or a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [6].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 225.76 points (0.48%) to 47,311 points, the Nasdaq up by 151.16 points (0.65%) to 23,499.8 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 24.74 points (0.37%) to 6,796.29 points [1] - European indices also saw gains, with Germany's DAX30 up by 102.18 points (0.43%) to 24,047.82 points, the UK's FTSE 100 rising by 61.29 points (0.63%) to 9,776.25 points, and France's CAC40 increasing by 6.70 points (0.08%) to 8,074.23 points [2] Employment Data - The ADP report indicated that the U.S. added 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 22,000, while September's data was revised to a loss of 29,000 jobs [5] - The ISM reported that the non-manufacturing PMI rose from 50.0 in September to 52.4 in October, indicating a recovery in service sector activity, although employment remains weak with the employment index at 48.2 [6] Commodity Prices - Crude oil prices fell, with light crude for December delivery down by $0.96 to $59.60 per barrel (1.59% drop) and Brent crude down by $0.92 to $63.52 per barrel (1.43% drop) [2] - Gold prices increased by over 1%, reaching $3,979.05 [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin rose over 2% to $103,646.7, while Ethereum increased by over 4.7% to $3,444.2 [3] Company News - Google will assist Apple in running Siri, with Apple expected to pay approximately $1 billion annually for Google's AI technology [9] - ARM Holdings reported Q3 revenue of $1.135 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $0.22 compared to $0.10 last year [9] - Qualcomm's Q4 revenue for fiscal year 2025 was $11.27 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year, although it reported a net loss of $3.117 billion due to a one-time tax expense [10]