石油石化 2026 年 2 月 1 日 石油石化周报 伊朗地缘局势严峻，油价短期震荡偏强 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/11 26/01 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 投资建议： 证 券 研 究 报 告 本周，我们建议关注石油石化、氟化工、半导体材料板块。石油石化：伊朗局势升级，美欧关系就格陵兰岛问题存在较大波折， 委内油供应能否增加尚存变数，短期内油价或呈现震荡偏强走势；中长期油价锚定基本面，随着 OPEC+增产的推进，美洲国家油 田的开发，基本面过剩格局或将继续演绎，油价仍存在中枢进一步下移的预期。面对国际油价剧烈震荡，国内油企通过上下 游一 体化布局和油气来源多元化降低了业绩对油价的敏感性，并加快在国内海上油气资源开放方面的投入，以降低能源对外依赖程 度。 建议关注增产空间大、成本有优势的中国海油、中曼石油，以及深入炼化一体化布局、降本增效成果较好、企业业绩表现出 较强 韧性的中国石油、恒力石 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sustainability of polarized valuations depends on the direction of the equity market. The report presents three scenarios for the equity market and corresponding convertible bond strategies: 1) If the spring rally continues, the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through 4,200, and the market style shifts from small - cap to large - cap, it is recommended to select convertible bonds related to the battery, automotive/robot/intelligent driving, edge - side AI, and innovative drug/CDMO sectors in the growth technology sector; 2) If the broad - based index continues the January oscillation and the small - cap style remains dominant, focus on core targets in popular tracks such as commercial space, AIDC - related gas turbines/liquid cooling, semiconductor equipment and materials, power semiconductors, and chemical industries; 3) If the equity market turns down, it is recommended to reduce positions first and then focus on defensive sectors like banks, power, and pig farming [2][20]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Focus from January 26 - January 30, 2026 - **Stock Market**: Daily trading volume remained high with rapid sector rotation. The precious metals sector led the gains but had a significant decline on Friday. The A - share oil and gas sector performed well due to the potential conflict risk between the US and Iran. Some previously popular sectors such as commercial space and space photovoltaics had significant pullbacks. Different sectors rose and fell on different days. In terms of industries, most Shenwan primary industries declined, with petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery leading the gains, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, automotive, and computer sectors performing poorly [8][9]. - **Bond Market**: The central bank's open - market operations were mainly net injections, and the money market shifted from tight to loose. Bond market sentiment was generally strong. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.81% on Friday, down 1.86bp from the previous week [9]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Most convertible bond issues declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.61% for the week, the median price dropped 2.22%, the arithmetic average parity fell 3.70%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased 1.12% compared to the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in different parity ranges changed, and they were at high percentile values since 2023 [9]. Viewpoints and Strategies from February 2 - February 6, 2026 - After the convertible bond market adjusted with the equity market last week, the sustainability of polarized valuations depends on the equity market's direction. Three scenarios and corresponding strategies are proposed as mentioned in the core viewpoints [2][20]. Valuation Overview - As of January 30, 2026, the average conversion premium rates of equity - biased convertible bonds in different parity ranges were at high percentile values since 2010 and 2021. The average YTM of debt - biased convertible bonds with a parity below 70 yuan was at a low percentile value. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds and the difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks were at high percentile values [21]. Primary Market Tracking - **Last Week (January 26 - January 30, 2026)**: No convertible bonds were announced for issuance. Lianrui Convertible Bond and Naipu Convertible Bond 02 were listed. Lianrui Convertible Bond has a scale of 695 million yuan, and Naipu Convertible Bond 02 has a scale of 450 million yuan [28][29]. - **Future Outlook**: No convertible bonds are announced for issuance or listing in the next week (February 2 - February 6, 2026). As of now, there are 100 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 155.9 billion yuan, of which 8 have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 6.16 billion yuan [30][31].

| 证券代码：688300 | 证券简称：联瑞新材 | 公告编号：2026-012 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：118064 | 转债简称：联瑞转债 | | 江苏联瑞新材料股份有限公司 关于"联瑞转债"交易异常波动的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 江苏联瑞新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）可转换公司债券（以 下简称"联瑞转债"）连续三个交易日（2026 年 1 月 28 日、2026 年 1 月 29 日、 2026 年 1 月 30 日）内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过 30%。根据《上海证券交 易所可转换公司债券交易实施细则》的有关规定，属于可转换公司债券交易异常 波动情形。 二、可转换公司债券交易异常波动的具体情况 公司可转换公司债券连续三个交易日（2026 年 1 月 28 日、2026 年 1 月 29 日、2026 年 1 月 30 日）内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过 30%。根据《上海证 券交易所可转换公司债券交易实施细则》的有关规定，属于 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Lianrui New Materials announced that its convertible bonds, "Lianrui Convertible Bonds," experienced abnormal trading fluctuations, with a cumulative price increase exceeding 30% over three consecutive trading days from January 28 to January 30, 2026 [1] - The company issued 695 million yuan worth of convertible bonds, which began trading on January 28 and will be convertible starting July 14, with an initial conversion price set at 63.55 yuan per share [1] - As of January 30, the closing price of "Lianrui Convertible Bonds" was 226.512 yuan per bond, reflecting a premium of 126.512% and a conversion premium rate of 115.52% [1]

Market Overview - The non-metal materials sector declined by 1.58% on January 30, with Bingyang Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - Lianrui New Materials (688300) with a closing price of 66.79, up 2.60% and a trading volume of 64,200 shares, totaling 422 million yuan [1] - Changjiang Materials (001296) closed at 29.29, up 2.48% with a trading volume of 80,100 shares, totaling 236 million yuan [1] - Significant decliners included: - Bingyang Technology (920675) closed at 11.55, down 4.55% with a trading volume of 94,500 shares, totaling 113 million yuan [2] - Strength Diamond (301071) closed at 39.90, down 4.52% with a trading volume of 231,400 shares, totaling 906 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The non-metal materials sector experienced a net outflow of 180 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 258 million yuan [2] - The detailed capital flow for selected stocks showed: - Lianrui New Materials had a net inflow of 19.19 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Bingyang Technology faced a net outflow of 9.72 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Quartz Shares (603688) had a net outflow of 39.90 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - Moltbot has high commercial potential and is expected to catalyze investment opportunities in the AI agent industry chain [1][4] - The core design of Moltbot transforms personal AI assistants from passive tools into proactive, convenient, and privatized "digital partners" [2][3] - Major model vendors like Tencent and Alibaba are accelerating their integration with Moltbot, indicating its significant ecological value [4] Investment Opportunities - Moltbot is anticipated to drive growth in the AI agent industry chain, focusing on key segments such as AI agents, cloud services, computing power, storage, and major model vendors [5] - The use of Moltbot will lead to increased API calls to large models, generating revenue growth for model vendors [5] - Cloud service providers will benefit from the demand for infrastructure support required for the increased usage of large model APIs [5] Market Performance - The report includes a stock pool focusing on AI agents, cloud services, and storage, highlighting companies with significant price changes and P/E ratios [6][7] - Specific companies such as 彩讯股份 (23.90% increase), 浙文互联 (76.21% increase), and 值得买 (64.74% increase) are noted for their performance since 2026 [6]

Market Overview - The non-metal materials sector experienced a decline of 2.95% compared to the previous trading day, with Lianrui New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the non-metal materials sector showed varied performance, with Lianrui New Materials closing at 65.10, down 8.05%, and other notable declines including Tianma New Materials down 3.06% and Longgao Co. down 2.67% [2] - The trading volume and turnover for major stocks included: - Quartz Co. with a closing price of 40.88 and a turnover of 750 million [1] - Strength Diamond with a closing price of 41.79 and a turnover of 1.08 billion [2] Capital Flow - The non-metal materials sector saw a net outflow of 264 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 137 million [2] - Detailed capital flow for specific stocks indicated that: - Quartz Co. had a net inflow of 12.1 million from retail investors, despite a net outflow of 8.29 million from institutional investors [3] - Lianrui New Materials experienced a significant net outflow of 15.05 million from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The non-metal materials sector increased by 0.87% on January 27, with LiLi Diamond leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the non-metal materials sector showed varied performance, with LiLi Diamond closing at 42.79, up 6.10%, and other notable stocks like Bingyang Technology and Lianrui New Materials also showing gains [1] Group 2 - The non-metal materials sector experienced a net outflow of 68.94 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 49.87 million yuan [2] - The stock performance of individual companies showed mixed results, with Lianrui New Materials having a main fund net inflow of 18.46 million yuan, while other companies like Tianma New Materials and Longgao Co. faced net outflows [3] - The overall trading volume and transaction amounts varied significantly among the stocks, with Lianrui New Materials achieving a transaction amount of 4.30 billion yuan [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and investment opportunities in the advanced packaging materials sector, highlighting the potential for domestic companies to replace foreign imports in critical areas [7][8]. Market Overview - The global market for advanced packaging materials is projected to reach $2.032 billion by 2028, with the Chinese market expected to grow to 9.67 billion yuan by 2025 [8]. - Specific materials such as PSPI, epoxy resin, and conductive adhesives are identified as key growth areas, with significant market size and growth forecasts [8]. Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic companies in the advanced packaging materials sector, listing several key players such as 鼎龙股份, 国风新材, and 三月科 [8]. - It outlines various investment stages in the new materials industry, from seed rounds to pre-IPO, detailing the associated risks and investment strategies at each stage [10]. Key Material Categories - The article categorizes advanced packaging materials into several types, including: - PSPI: Expected to grow from $528 million in 2023 to $2.032 billion by 2028 [8]. - Conductive adhesives: Projected to reach $3 billion by 2026 [8]. - Chip bonding materials: Estimated to grow from approximately $485 million in 2023 to $684 million by 2029 [8]. Domestic vs. Foreign Competition - The article highlights the competitive landscape, noting that foreign companies like Fujifilm, Toray, and Dow currently dominate the market, but domestic firms are rapidly advancing [8]. - It stresses the urgency for domestic companies to innovate and capture market share in light of increasing demand for advanced materials [7][8].

Market Overview - The non-metal materials sector experienced a decline of 1.57% on January 26, with Quartz Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Longgao Co. with a closing price of 45.70, up 3.79%, and Bingyang Technology at 11.30, up 3.48% [1] - Significant decliners included Quartz Co. at 39.75, down 5.54%, and Tianma New Materials at 35.55, down 3.84% [2] Trading Volume and Value - Longgao Co. had a trading volume of 65,100 shares, with a transaction value of 297 million yuan [1] - Quartz Co. recorded a trading volume of 217,200 shares, with a transaction value of 872 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The non-metal materials sector saw a net outflow of 114 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 59.76 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for key stocks showed that Strength Diamond had a net inflow of 22.26 million yuan from institutional investors [3] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Strength Diamond had a net outflow of 43.56 million yuan from retail investors, despite a net inflow from institutional and speculative investors [3] - Longgao Co. also experienced a net outflow of 471,400 yuan from retail investors, while institutional investors had a net inflow of 7.68 million yuan [3]