Retail & E-commerce Trends - Black Friday is still a very important day for retail, with the National Retail Federation predicting 1304 million Americans will shop in some form [3] - Adobe predicts US online sales will hit nearly $12 billion, up more than 8% from last year [3] - Shopify reports $24 million sales per minute and 23000 change orders per minute [3] - Since last night, Shopify has seen 17 million unique shoppers across all stores [3] - Top product categories on Shopify include skincare, vitamins, supplements, and activewear [3] - Shopify merchants are generally offering discounts ranging from 10% to 30% [4] - Shopify reports that consumers are looking for value more than discounts, preferring to buy from brands they love [4] - Last year, Shopify did $93 billion over the 4-day period, and this year they did $115 billion [4] Supply Chain & Geopolitics - Nexperia China responded to an open letter, stating there's no situation where it cannot be contacted and accusing the Dutch company of destructive measures [2] - Concerns arise over an Intel hiring a TSMC executive, with Taiwan investigating potential transfer of chip secrets [2] Amazon & Prime Video Strategy - Amazon is investing heavily in sports to add more value to Prime membership, including NFL, NBA, NASCAR, and Champions League Soccer [5] - Amazon Prime Video advertising for Black Friday is up 40% year-over-year [5] - Amazon is making all sporting events available globally for free to any Amazon customer [7]

Intel expected to begin shipping Apple’s lowest-end M processor as early as 2027There have long been market rumors that Intel could become an advanced-node foundry supplier to Apple, but visibility around this had remained low. My latest industry surveys, however, indicate that visibility on Intel becoming an advanced-node supplier to Apple has recently improved significantly.Apple previously signed an NDA with Intel and obtained the advanced-node 18AP PDK 0.9.1GA. The key simulation and research projects ( ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor and Memory Market, particularly focusing on DRAM and NAND sectors - **Key Focus**: AI investment trends and their impact on memory demand Core Insights 1. **AI Investment Concerns**: Investors are worried about a potential AI bubble, but the overall sentiment remains positive regarding AI development and demand growth [1][7] 2. **Investment Continuity**: There are no signs of delays or cancellations in AI investments, with growth driven by an increase in paid users and context generation [2][7] 3. **Demand Dynamics**: While there are downside risks in B2C demand (smartphones and PCs), demand from servers, HBM, SOCAMM2, and eSSD is expected to offset these declines [2][3] 4. **Memory Capacity Growth**: DRAM supply is projected to grow by 21% year-over-year in 2026, with a 7% increase in capacity. Korean capex is expected to rise by 19% year-over-year to KRW80 trillion in 2026 [2][4] 5. **Emerging Catalysts**: SOCAMM2 and eSSD are identified as key growth drivers, with SOCAMM2 expected to account for 10% of DRAM demand by 2027, up from less than 1% in 2025 [3][7] Company Recommendations 1. **Preferred Stocks**: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are rated as "Buy" due to their undervaluation and improving return on equity (ROE) [4][7] 2. **Target Prices**: - Samsung Electronics: Target price of KRW170,000, implying a 79.3% upside from the current price of KRW94,800 [4][72] - SK Hynix: Target price of KRW850,000, suggesting a 63.1% upside from the current price of KRW521,000 [4][72] Market Dynamics 1. **Commodity DRAM Shortage**: A shortage in commodity DRAM is anticipated, with margins expected to improve, enhancing the negotiation position of DRAM makers [3][7] 2. **HBM Market Growth**: The HBM market is projected to grow by 58% year-over-year in 2026, with HBM4 maintaining a price premium of 30-40% [3][7] 3. **Capex Trends**: Total capital expenditure (capex) for global cloud service providers (CSPs) is expected to reach USD510 billion in 2026, a 30% year-over-year increase [23][27] Risks and Considerations 1. **Downside Risks**: Potential risks include further appreciation of the KRW, global trade restrictions, and economic slowdowns affecting consumer and enterprise IT demand [72] 2. **Market Penetration**: Chinese NAND makers pose an ongoing risk, although their penetration into the eSSD market is expected to take time [2][3] Additional Insights 1. **AI Server Demand**: AI servers are projected to significantly contribute to eSSD demand growth, with a CAGR of 85% from 2025 to 2027 [49][50] 2. **Long-term Outlook**: The DRAM cycle is expected to remain strong until at least 2027, with continued investment in AI infrastructure by major players [4][7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the semiconductor and memory market dynamics, investment recommendations, and potential risks.

AI Bubble Concerns & Sustainability - The report focuses on concerns about a potential bubble in the global AI industry, fueled by multibillion-dollar circular deals [1][3] - Questions arise regarding the sustainability of AI spending by Asia's tech players [2] - Nervousness persists despite efforts to downplay criticism, particularly concerning revenue justification for the AI revolution by 2030 [3][6] - Concerns exist about suppliers funding customers, customers investing in suppliers, and murky revenue-sharing agreements [4] - Some skeptics warn of an overdue correction, while others remain confident in AI's long-term potential, suggesting a bubble has merely gotten ahead of itself [10] Key Players & Strategies - NVIDIA is central, described as selling the "troubles" in today's AI job rush, engaging in mega-deals to invest in companies that buy its products [5] - SoftBank's AI exposure is examined, including its investments in OpenAI and massive data hubs, raising investor fears of potential backfire due to rising debt [16][17] - Foxconn's chairman addresses concerns about circular deals, emphasizing the potential for AI in manufacturing and daily uses, highlighting the demands are real [11][12] - Alibaba's CEO doesn't foresee an AI bubble forming in the next 2-3 years, believing resources for AI won't meet demand [36][37] Financial Implications & Market Dynamics - SoftBank sold its entire stake in NVIDIA for $58 billion to bankroll AI ambitions, amplifying market anxiety over an industry bubble [7] - Bloomberg Economics sees demand for Korean chips surging by 35% next year, almost twice the current clip [8] - Oracle's stock performance is noted, giving up gains made since striking a $300 billion deal with OpenAI, suggesting investors are penalizing the shift to AI [23] - OpenAI is committing over $13 trillion in the next few years, raising questions about the source of funding [27]

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Global Markets Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Asian equity markets, particularly China, Korea, and India - **Outlook for 2026**: Bullish on Asian equities with expectations of moderate to exceptional gains driven by policy support and liquidity [2][41][42] Key Points 1. Market Valuations and Positioning - Equity market valuations are currently high, with positioning in regional equities above the 80th percentile since July [2][41] - Despite high valuations, the expectation is for Asian equities to deliver gains due to supportive policies and liquidity [2][41] 2. China Market Recovery - China is in the early stages of recovery from a ~4-year downcycle, with acceptable valuations and light positioning [5][42][88] - Multiple support factors for China include: - AI adoption and power generation advantages - Innovations in robotics, biotech, semiconductors, and fintech - Consumption and property support measures - Rising shareholder returns and domestic liquidity reallocation [5][42][88][89] 3. AI Sector Insights - AI-heavy stocks (~35% of MXASJ) present a mixed risk-reward scenario, with concerns about monetization and potential commoditization [5][41] - The balance of risk and reward suggests limited incentive to increase exposure to AI stocks at this time [5][41] 4. Sector and Country Allocations - **Overweight (OW)**: Korea, Hong Kong/China, India, Consumer Staples, Materials, Financials [5][41][46] - **Neutral**: Taiwan, Technology, Industrials, Real Estate [5][41][46] - **Underweight (UW)**: ASEAN, Utilities, Energy, Healthcare [5][41][46] 5. Earnings Growth and Sector Contributions - Approximately 70% of the EPS consensus growth forecast for 2026 is driven by sectors in Korea, Taiwan, China, and India [14] - A synchronized acceleration of year-on-year growth across markets is anticipated for the first time since 2021 [14] 6. Policy Environment - Global easing policies are expected to support earnings and inflate equity valuations beyond normal levels [57][60] - The US has shifted from austerity to expansionary fiscal policies, which is expected to have a positive impact on Asian markets [58][68] 7. Long-term Themes - Key long-term themes expected to gain traction in 2026 include: - Governance improvements driving re-rating - Localization of Asian equity markets - Stablecoins as a new financial frontier [5][46] 8. Market Index Targets - End-2026 index targets for MXASJ are set at 1025 (base case), 1200 (bull case), and 800 (bear case) [7][54] 9. Risk Considerations - The potential for large gains in 2026 is viewed as substantially higher than the risk of large losses, particularly in the context of China's recovery [5][42][88] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring governance reforms in Korea and the ongoing developments in China as critical factors influencing market performance [5][41][42] - The strategic case for allocation to Asia is strengthened by recent improvements in long-term headwinds such as margins and valuations [14][41] This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from J.P. Morgan's conference call, focusing on the outlook for Asian equity markets and the specific dynamics affecting China, Korea, and India.

ASML Holding NV Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS) - **Industry**: Technology - European Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: €341,480 million - **Current Share Price**: €858.80 (as of November 24, 2025) - **Price Target**: Raised from €975.00 to €1,000.00 Key Points Industry Dynamics - **DRAM Demand**: Strong demand for DRAM technology transitions, particularly the shift from 1a and 1b nodes to 1c nodes, is expected to increase EUV layer requirements, with 5-6 layers anticipated at 1c [3][8] - **Foundry Spending**: Continued solid demand from foundry spending, particularly from major players like Samsung and Hynix, is noted for FY26 [3][4] - **China Market**: Anticipated decline in demand from China, estimated at 15-20% YoY, with a conservative outlook embedded in the estimates [10][12] Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues for FY26 are €34,141 million, up from €32,624 million in FY25, indicating a growth rate of approximately 4.7% [6][21] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for FY26 is €26.31, reflecting a growth from €25.20 in FY25 [6][21] - **Margins**: Despite a slowdown in DUV sales, margins are expected to remain resilient due to higher EUV sales and improvements in Installed Base Management (IBM) [4][9] Strategic Insights - **EUV Tool Sales**: ASML anticipates selling 48 EUV tools in FY26, up from 41 in FY25, which is expected to positively impact margins [4][9] - **Installed Base Management**: Improvements in service efficiencies and a shift from upgrades to services are expected to enhance IBM margins [8][9] - **NVIDIA Impact**: Positive developments from NVIDIA, including record revenues and strong demand for AI chips, are expected to indirectly support ASML's foundry equipment supply and DRAM demand [11][12] Market Sentiment - **Shift in Sentiment**: The sentiment around ASML has improved since summer 2025, driven by significant events in the semiconductor industry, including investments in AI and memory supercycle dynamics [15][14] - **Order Book Stability**: The order book is stabilizing after a period of volatility, with indications of a recovery in demand [17][19] Risks and Considerations - **Geopolitical Uncertainty**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions, particularly concerning China, continue to pose risks to ASML's sales and market outlook [13][14] - **DUV Sales Decline**: A projected decline of approximately 6% YoY in DUV sales is expected to balance out the margin benefits from EUV sales [9][12] Conclusion ASML Holding NV is positioned to benefit from strong DRAM demand and foundry spending, with a positive outlook for FY26. The company is expected to maintain resilient margins despite challenges in the DUV segment, and the recent developments in the semiconductor industry, particularly from NVIDIA, are likely to provide additional support for ASML's growth trajectory. The raised price target reflects confidence in ASML's recovery and market position.

Group 1: Trade Deal with Taiwan - The Trump administration is negotiating a trade deal with Taiwan that may involve the island renewing its investment in semiconductors and advanced technology in the U.S. [1] - Major Taiwanese chipmakers, including TSMC, are expected to expand operations in the U.S. and train more American workers as part of the potential deal [2] - In exchange for the tech investment, the Trump administration may reduce the current 20% tariff on other Taiwanese goods [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The negotiations with Taiwan occur amid heightened tensions following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's strong defense of Taiwan's independence, suggesting military response from Japan in case of a Chinese attack [6] - Chinese officials reacted strongly to Japan's statements, summoning Japan's ambassador and warning against travel to Japan [7] - China's defense ministry asserted that any Japanese intervention would not protect Taiwan, indicating the seriousness of the geopolitical situation [7]

Let's stick with the tech trade this morning. Joining us today is Janice Henderson's head of technology research and portfolio manager, Denny Fish. Denny, it's good to have you.Thanks for the help. We definitely need it because I was just thinking all of these discussions are getting so rich. I mean, we've talked about the reliability of LLMs, debt and depreciation, circular financing, and now TPU competition.Is that changing your models or you have you has everyone been all over this. >> Yeah. know it's ac ...

Core Insights - Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) reached an all-time high of $311.37 last month, driven by a strong third-quarter report and increased revenue guidance [1] Company Summary - TSMC's stock performance reflects investor confidence following a robust financial report [1] - The company has provided an optimistic revenue outlook, contributing to the surge in share price [1]

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co said on Tuesday it had filed a lawsuit in the Intellectual Property and Commercial Court against its former Senior Vice President Wei-Jen Lo, who recently joined ... ...