Summary of Ascentage Pharma's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ascentage Pharma - **Key Products**: Lisatoclax (2,575) and Olverembatinib (Aurebatinib) Industry Insights - **Market Focus**: Hematological malignancies, specifically targeting CLL (Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia), MDS (Myelodysplastic Syndromes), and MM (Multiple Myeloma) [2][6] - **Competitive Landscape**: The market for BCL-2 inhibitors is competitive, with Lisatoclax being the second BCL-2 inhibitor globally approved, following Venetoclax [19] Core Points and Arguments - **Lisatoclax Development**: - Submitted for CLL indication in China and plans to expand into MDS and MM, which have less competition [2][6] - Expected to leverage safety advantages to capture market share [2] - Clinical trial data presented at ASCO 2025 showed an ORR of 83.3% in AML patients and 43% in difficult-to-treat AML patients [23] - **Olverembatinib Performance**: - Achieved sales of 241 million RMB in 2024, with expectations to double in 2025 [3] - Positioned as a third-generation TKI targeting T315I resistant patients, showing significant safety advantages over competitors [11][15] - **Collaboration with Takeda**: - A $1.3 billion licensing agreement was reached, with Takeda expected to exercise options post-2026 [5] - This partnership indicates recognition of Chinese-developed drugs by international firms [5] - **Research and Development Focus**: - Future R&D investments will prioritize overseas registration and domestic indication expansions for Lisatoclax [4] - Cash flow is projected to support these initiatives [4] Additional Important Insights - **Market Potential**: - Lisatoclax's peak sales potential is estimated between $3 billion to $4 billion globally [19] - Olverembatinib's peak sales in overseas markets could reach $2 billion to $3 billion, with domestic sales expected to approach 2 billion RMB [18] - **Competitive Advantages**: - Lisatoclax offers better safety and faster dose escalation compared to Venetoclax, enhancing patient compliance [19] - The strategic approach of entering the market with a cautious clinical trial design allows for quicker market capture [22] - **Management and Shareholder Structure**: - Led by Dr. Yang Dajun, with a strong management team experienced in drug development [7] - Takeda is a significant shareholder, reflecting confidence in Ascentage's capabilities [8] - **Future Outlook**: - Plans to expand into ALL (Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia) with Philadelphia chromosome-positive patients, which could significantly boost sales [14] - The company is also exploring new product pipelines targeting solid tumors and hematological malignancies [9] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Ascentage Pharma's conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, product performance, and market opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector is experiencing active performance, with significant increases in various stocks and a notable inflow into the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:40, the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index rose by 0.6%, with notable stock increases: Lepu Biotech-B up 5.1%, Innovent Biologics up 3.3%, Ascentage Pharma-B up 2.8%, and CStone Pharmaceuticals up 2.7% [1] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) recorded a trading volume exceeding 250 million yuan, with a net subscription of 35 million units [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, major academic conferences such as the World Conference on Lung Cancer (WCLC), European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO), American College of Rheumatology (ACR), and American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) are expected to continuously catalyze the innovative drug sector [1] Group 3: Index Revision - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index has announced a revision to its compilation scheme, explicitly excluding CXO companies, with the new rules set to take effect on August 11 [1] - This index will become one of the first "pure" innovative drug indices with 100% purity among ETF-tracked indices, enhancing its appeal to investors [1]

8月5日，港股早盘高开，创新药"新势力"港股通创新药ETF（520880）场内价格一度涨近2%，现涨 1.16%，再现宽幅溢价，实时溢价率达0.5%，显示买盘资金信心颇足。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 6852 | 亚盛医药 - B | 1005 | 76.800 | 3:450 | 4.70% | | 2 | 6966 | 诺诚健华 | 110000 | 18.540 | 0.690 | 3.87% | | 3 | 1801 | 信达生物 | per | 95.800 | 2.900 | 3.12% | | 4 | 6160 | 百济神州 | 5 | 187.800 | 5.200 | 2.85% | | 5 | 9926 | 康方生物 | mr | 156.300 | 4.200 | 2.76% | | 6 | 2162 | 康诺亚 - B | SA | 63.400 | 1.550 | 2.51% | | 7 | 9688 | 再鼎医药 | 800 | 3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing bullish trend in the innovative drug sector, driven by significant business development (BD) projects and active trading in related ETFs [1][2][3][4] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight increase in major indices, with a notable rise in biopharmaceutical stocks, indicating strong market interest in this sector [1] - Key innovative drug companies such as Hengrui Medicine, CSPC Pharmaceutical, and Lepu Biopharma have secured substantial overseas licensing agreements, which are expected to generate significant revenue [2][3] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to maintain momentum through 2025, supported by major academic conferences that will catalyze market interest [3] - There is a focus on emerging technologies and unmet clinical needs, with specific attention to areas such as dual-target and multi-target therapies, small nucleic acids, and next-generation immuno-oncology drugs [3] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug Select ETF (520690) tracks a pure innovative drug index, which has shown impressive growth, making it a focal point for investors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing strong performance in the innovative drug sector, with significant price increases in related ETFs and stocks, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on August 5, with the innovative drug ETF (520880) rising nearly 2% at one point and currently up 1.16%, indicating strong buying confidence [1]. - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index has increased by 101.58% year-to-date as of July 31, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index (23.50%) and the Hang Seng Tech Index (22.05%) by 78.08 and 79.53 percentage points, respectively [6]. - Individual stocks in the innovative drug sector have also shown strong gains, with notable increases such as Ascentage Pharma-B up nearly 5% and several others like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene rising over 3% [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking the smallest increase since October of the previous year, which has led to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin a series of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September, with the possibility of a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to benefit significantly from the anticipated interest rate cuts, as these stocks are sensitive to interest rate changes, prompting market participants to position themselves ahead of potential valuation increases for drug companies [3]. - CITIC Securities highlights that China's innovative drug development has made significant progress, and recent measures to support high-quality development in this sector will further enhance growth prospects [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the AH premium rates for A/H listed pharmaceutical companies remain at a high level, with significant premiums observed for various innovative drug companies and CXO firms as of August 1, 2025 [2][6] - The report indicates a trend of narrowing AH premium rates, suggesting that leading companies like Heng Rui Medicine and WuXi AppTec have begun to achieve valuation recovery, with Heng Rui's H shares experiencing a reversal in AH premium [7][28] - The report anticipates that as Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies continue to advance their R&D pipelines and internationalization efforts, the Hong Kong stock market may enter a value reassessment phase, revealing structural investment opportunities [2][28] Summary by Sections AH Premium Rates - As of August 1, 2025, the AH premium rates for several innovative drug companies are as follows: BeiGene at 47.56%, Junshi Biosciences at 70.30%, Innovent Biologics at 83.37%, Fudan-Zhangjiang at 185.15%, and Rongchang Biologics at 17.36% [6][17] - For CXO companies, the AH premium rates are: Zhaoyan New Drug at 52.67%, Tigermed at 36.50%, Kanglong Chemical at 51.60%, and Kelaiying at 20.21% [6][17] Trends in AH Premium Rates - The report notes a significant decrease in AH premium rates since early 2025, with leading companies like Heng Rui Medicine and WuXi AppTec achieving notable valuation adjustments [7][23] - The AH premium rates for these companies have shown a marked decline from earlier levels, indicating a shift in market dynamics [23][28] Investment Perspectives - The report emphasizes that the ongoing "tenglong huan niao" (transformation) in medical insurance will continue to unfold, with innovative drugs being a primary investment focus [30] - It suggests that companies with healthy cash flows, strong innovation capabilities, and established R&D platforms are well-positioned for growth [30] - The report also highlights the importance of breakthrough therapies and technological advancements, particularly in areas such as cytokine immunotherapy and PD1-based therapies [30]

Group 1 - Non-farm payroll numbers fell short of expectations, leading to a significant decline in US stocks last Friday [1] - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower again, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.31%, the National Index down 0.35%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.66% [1] - Major technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Kuaishou and Alibaba dropping over 1%, while Tencent and NetEase saw slight gains [1] Group 2 - Pharmaceutical stocks in the US experienced a sharp decline following Trump's call to lower drug prices, impacting Hong Kong's biotech sector, where companies like WuXi AppTec and Innovent Biologics saw declines [1] - Automotive stocks continued to decline, with BYD shares dropping nearly 3% [1] - Defensive sentiment increased, leading to a collective rise in gold stocks, with Lingbao Gold and Zhaojin Mining both rising over 3% [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is experiencing significant growth, with a record-breaking $60.5 billion licensing agreement between 3SBio and Pfizer, marking a milestone in China's innovative drug transactions [1] - In the first half of 2025, over 50 global collaborations were established in the Chinese innovative drug sector, totaling $48.448 billion, alongside 154 new drug clinical approvals and 16 innovative drugs successfully launched [2][3] - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF has seen a remarkable year-to-date increase of 58.95%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index and technology index [1] Industry Developments - The number of new drug clinical approvals reached 154 in June 2025, a 9% increase from the previous month, with bispecific antibodies and ADC drugs becoming the core areas of technological breakthroughs [2] - The Chinese innovative drug sector is transitioning from a "pharmaceutical giant" to a "pharmaceutical powerhouse," with the number of original innovative drugs in development now ranking first globally [2][3] - The introduction of a "commercial health insurance innovative drug directory" by the National Healthcare Security Administration is expected to create new payment channels for high-priced innovative drugs [3][4] Market Trends - The proportion of oncology pipeline transactions has decreased from 72% in 2023 to 61% in 2024, while the share of metabolic endocrine and autoimmune fields has increased to 25% [3] - The domestic innovative drug self-pay market is projected to grow from 320 billion yuan in 2024 to 1 trillion yuan by 2030, providing ample space for high-priced innovative drugs [3][4] Financial Performance - The proportion of R&D expenditure relative to revenue for innovative drug companies has decreased from 157% in 2023 to 89% currently, with some companies achieving net profit margins of 15% to 20% [5][6] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hong Kong innovative drug selection index account for 75.85% of the index, indicating a concentration of market power among leading firms [5] Internationalization Strategies - Leading companies are shifting from "product export" to "platform export," while smaller firms are adopting the NewCo model to reduce reliance on single markets [6] - Recommendations include establishing cross-border platforms to provide comprehensive support for international expansion and fostering patient capital to better integrate financial resources with technological innovation [6]

Group 1 - Recent domestic equity markets have shown signs of recovery, leading to several high-performing active equity funds implementing purchase limits to manage inflows and maintain stability [1][2] - The Yongying Ruixin Mixed Fund, managed by Gao Nan, has achieved a return rate of 43.62% year-to-date, ranking in the top 5 of its category, while its assets have surged to over 5 billion yuan [2] - The Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selected Mixed Fund (QDII) has reported an impressive return of 136.89% year-to-date, making it the top performer in the public fund market [2] Group 2 - Several quantitative funds have also announced purchase limits, including the Nuon Fund and CITIC Prudential Multi-Strategy Mixed Fund, to ensure smooth operations and protect investors' interests [3] - The performance of quantitative funds has been strong, with several achieving historical net asset value highs recently, indicating robust management and investment strategies [3][4] - The small-cap style has outperformed the large-cap style this year, with significant excess returns, driven by high turnover stocks amid prevailing risk aversion [4] Group 3 - Market liquidity remains abundant, with expectations of continued policy support and a favorable economic outlook, contributing to a positive investment environment [5] - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a structural uplift, supported by potential catalysts and a favorable monetary policy environment [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Insights - The innovative drug sector has seen a significant increase in institutional interest, with the total heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs reaching 80.371 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 39% [7][18] - The proportion of heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs relative to the overall market has increased to 2.39%, up by 0.49 percentage points, indicating sustained enthusiasm from institutions towards the innovative drug sector [19][25] - The heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs account for 24.93% of the total heavy positions in the pharmaceutical industry, reflecting a rise of 5.49 percentage points [19][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Review of New Drug Market - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (29.53%), WuXi AppTec (17.72%), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (14.60%), Maiwei Biotech (12.08%), and Haizhi Pharmaceutical (11.76%) [14][15] - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: Kintor Pharmaceutical (-19.09%), Hualing Pharmaceutical (-16.19%), Junsheng Pharmaceutical (-13.24%), Kintor Pharma (-12.70%), and Yunding New Drug (-11.29%) [14][15] Key Analysis of New Drug Industry - The report analyzed the latest heavy positions of all funds in the innovative drug sector as of June 30, 2025, focusing on A-share and Hong Kong Biotech companies [18] - The heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs accounted for 7.05% of the total market capitalization, an increase of 0.93 percentage points [23][28] New Drug Approval and Acceptance - This week, 13 new drug or new indication applications were approved, including drugs such as Risperidone orally disintegrating film and Nivolumab injection [33][34] - Additionally, 6 new drug or new indication applications were accepted, including drugs like Eptinezumab injection and Edaravone tablets [35][36] Clinical Application Approval and Acceptance - A total of 50 new drug clinical applications were approved this week, while 44 new drug clinical applications were accepted [37]