中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，血液肿瘤分类复杂，多种细分亚型治疗领域仍存在较多投资机 会。近年来在靶向、免疫以及细胞治疗等新兴治疗手段的推广应用下，血液瘤治疗已呈现与高血压、糖 尿病类似的慢病管理趋势。血液瘤的长生存周期带来大量存量患者，且药物治疗费用高，导致重磅产品 频出，潜在市场机会巨大。建议关注百济神州(06160)、诺诚健华(09969)、亚盛医药-B(06855)、迪哲医 药-U(688192.SH)。 AML、ALL等急性白血病目前主要采用化疗或靶向联合化疗模式，并通过靶向治疗和多药联合提升生 存率。在慢性白血病治疗中，CML主要采用BCR-ABLTKI治疗，尝试通过技术迭代及新靶点克服耐 药;CLL治疗包括BTK、BCL-2、CD20等药物，正探索BTK+BCL-2固定疗程给药及开发非共价BTK、双 靶BTK、BTKPROTAC等布局BTK耐药后市场。淋巴瘤亚型较多，大多数采用利妥昔联合化疗，而多发 性骨髓瘤仍以CD38单抗治疗为核心;淋巴瘤中侵袭性较强的DLBCL和多发性骨髓瘤均面临复发概率高且 复发后难治的问题，目前CAR-T疗法缓解率较高，为后线患者提供更多治疗选择。 靶向药竞争 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the blood cancer drug industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The blood cancer market is expanding due to innovative therapies, with significant advancements in precision diagnosis, prognosis stratification, and targeted therapies such as CAR-T and TCE, leading to improved patient survival and quality of life [5][8]. - The number of patients with blood cancer who have survived for five years or more is approximately 4 million globally, which is three times the number of new patients, indicating a growing market for long-term treatments [5][13]. - The high cost of blood cancer drugs and the emergence of blockbuster products are driving market growth, with several drugs expected to exceed $10 billion in sales by 2024 [5][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Blood Cancer Market Expansion - The proportion of new blood cancer patients is less than 10% of all new cancer cases, with a steady increase in incidence rates [8]. - Blood cancer patients have a long survival period, resulting in a large population of existing patients [13]. - The high cost of blood cancer treatments contributes to the frequent emergence of blockbuster drugs [17]. 2. Clinical Diagnosis and Treatment of Blood Cancer - Blood cancers are classified based on cell origin, differentiation, and affected sites, including leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma [19][20]. - Treatment for acute leukemia primarily involves chemotherapy or targeted combination therapies to improve survival rates [24]. - Lymphoma treatment varies by subtype, with Rituximab being a cornerstone therapy [23]. - Multiple myeloma treatment focuses on CD38 monoclonal antibodies, with ongoing exploration of solutions for relapsed and refractory cases [23]. 3. Analysis of Popular Targets and Therapies - The BTK field is seeing intense competition, with new products emerging to address resistance issues [5]. - The BCL-2 area is advancing with differentiated designs and optimized dosing strategies [5]. - The BCR-ABL TKI domain is witnessing the introduction of third-generation inhibitors that show superior efficacy [5]. 4. Company Profiles - BeiGene is focusing on a comprehensive product matrix to cover CLL/SLL indications [5]. - Innovent Biologics is building a diversified product portfolio centered around Oubreti [5]. - Ascentage Pharma is developing third-generation BCR-ABL inhibitors and BCL-2 inhibitors to create competitive advantages [5]. - Diligent Pharma is innovating with a globally first high-selectivity JAK1 inhibitor and a dual-target LYN/BTK inhibitor [5]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The blood cancer sector presents numerous investment opportunities due to its complexity and the variety of treatment subfields [5]. - The long survival cycle of blood cancer patients and the high costs of drug treatments indicate a significant market potential [5].

Summary of Ascentage Pharma's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ascentage Pharma - **Key Products**: Lisatoclax (2,575) and Olverembatinib (Aurebatinib) Industry Insights - **Market Focus**: Hematological malignancies, specifically targeting CLL (Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia), MDS (Myelodysplastic Syndromes), and MM (Multiple Myeloma) [2][6] - **Competitive Landscape**: The market for BCL-2 inhibitors is competitive, with Lisatoclax being the second BCL-2 inhibitor globally approved, following Venetoclax [19] Core Points and Arguments - **Lisatoclax Development**: - Submitted for CLL indication in China and plans to expand into MDS and MM, which have less competition [2][6] - Expected to leverage safety advantages to capture market share [2] - Clinical trial data presented at ASCO 2025 showed an ORR of 83.3% in AML patients and 43% in difficult-to-treat AML patients [23] - **Olverembatinib Performance**: - Achieved sales of 241 million RMB in 2024, with expectations to double in 2025 [3] - Positioned as a third-generation TKI targeting T315I resistant patients, showing significant safety advantages over competitors [11][15] - **Collaboration with Takeda**: - A $1.3 billion licensing agreement was reached, with Takeda expected to exercise options post-2026 [5] - This partnership indicates recognition of Chinese-developed drugs by international firms [5] - **Research and Development Focus**: - Future R&D investments will prioritize overseas registration and domestic indication expansions for Lisatoclax [4] - Cash flow is projected to support these initiatives [4] Additional Important Insights - **Market Potential**: - Lisatoclax's peak sales potential is estimated between $3 billion to $4 billion globally [19] - Olverembatinib's peak sales in overseas markets could reach $2 billion to $3 billion, with domestic sales expected to approach 2 billion RMB [18] - **Competitive Advantages**: - Lisatoclax offers better safety and faster dose escalation compared to Venetoclax, enhancing patient compliance [19] - The strategic approach of entering the market with a cautious clinical trial design allows for quicker market capture [22] - **Management and Shareholder Structure**: - Led by Dr. Yang Dajun, with a strong management team experienced in drug development [7] - Takeda is a significant shareholder, reflecting confidence in Ascentage's capabilities [8] - **Future Outlook**: - Plans to expand into ALL (Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia) with Philadelphia chromosome-positive patients, which could significantly boost sales [14] - The company is also exploring new product pipelines targeting solid tumors and hematological malignancies [9] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Ascentage Pharma's conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, product performance, and market opportunities.

Group 1 - As of recent announcements, the company has completed a fundraising of approximately HKD 14.93 billion (around CNY 1.368 billion), bringing total fundraising to over CNY 2.2 billion within six months [1][3] - The core purpose of the fundraising is to commercialize the newly approved core product, APG-2575, a selective Bcl-2 inhibitor, which is the first domestically developed Bcl-2 inhibitor approved for market [1][4] - The company plans to establish its own commercialization team for APG-2575, with expectations to achieve breakeven by 2027 [1][6] Group 2 - The recent fundraising was completed through the sale of 22 million shares at HKD 68.60 each, with all preconditions for the placement being met [2][3] - The net proceeds from the recent fundraising are expected to be allocated as follows: 40% for expanding coverage and improving patient access (approximately CNY 5.47 billion), 35% for global clinical development of core pipeline products (approximately CNY 4.76 billion), and 25% for infrastructure and operational funding (approximately CNY 3.42 billion) [3] - The company has signed cooperation agreements with major pharmaceutical distributors to advance the commercialization of APG-2575 [6] Group 3 - The company reported a revenue of CNY 981 million in 2024, with a loss of CNY 405 million, marking the lowest loss level in recent years [6] - The company is currently conducting four global Phase III clinical trials for APG-2575, targeting multiple indications including acute myeloid leukemia and multiple myeloma [7] - The global sales of the first Bcl-2 inhibitor, Venclexta, are projected to exceed USD 3 billion in 2024, indicating a strong market potential for Bcl-2 inhibitors [7]

Core Insights - The successful launch of the drug Lisatoclax (also known as Lishengtuo) by Ascentage Pharma marks a significant milestone in the development of Bcl-2 inhibitors, breaking a nine-year monopoly held by AbbVie in this field [3][10] - The research on the Bcl-2 target has spanned over three decades, highlighting the challenges and complexities involved in drug development [3][5] - Ascentage Pharma aims to differentiate its products from existing therapies, focusing on innovative solutions to address unmet clinical needs [4][6] Company Overview - Ascentage Pharma's Lisatoclax is the first domestically developed Bcl-2 inhibitor in China and the second globally, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation [3][10] - The company has also developed another product, Olverembatinib (brand name: Nairike), which took 13 years to develop, further emphasizing its long-term investment in research [3] - The CEO of Ascentage Pharma, Yang Dajun, emphasizes the importance of targeting difficult drug targets and conducting rigorous clinical designs to achieve superior drug efficacy [4][6] Clinical Development - The Bcl-2 target is likened to PD-1 in blood cancer treatment, with the potential to treat various B-cell tumors effectively [5][6] - Lisatoclax has a unique dosing regimen that allows for a rapid escalation to the target dose, which is crucial for minimizing severe side effects like Tumor Lysis Syndrome (TLS) [6][7] - Clinical data suggest that Lisatoclax has a lower incidence of TLS compared to its competitors, enhancing its safety profile and making it a more convenient treatment option [6][7] Market Position and Strategy - Ascentage Pharma's stock has seen significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of over 70% in Hong Kong and more than 120% in the US market, indicating strong investor confidence [12] - The company aims to navigate the competitive landscape of innovative drugs by focusing on unique therapeutic targets rather than following trends in the market [12][13] - Yang Dajun believes that the current wave of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry is a result of accumulated experience, technological breakthroughs, and supportive policies [10][11] Future Outlook - Ascentage Pharma is optimistic about achieving profitability by 2027, reflecting its strategic focus on developing proprietary products that can generate revenue [13] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the evolving landscape of the biopharmaceutical industry, where the distinction between biotech and large pharmaceutical companies is increasingly defined by the ability to generate profits from self-developed products [13]

Core Insights - A Chinese original drug, APG-2575 (brand name: Lisatoclax), has broken the nearly decade-long monopoly of multinational pharmaceutical companies in the global anti-cancer drug market, marking a significant shift in the competitive landscape [2][9] - The drug has received conditional approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in China for adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) who have undergone at least one systemic treatment including a BTK inhibitor [2][5] Drug Development Challenges - The Bcl-2 target, discovered in 1985, has only two approved drugs: AbbVie's venetoclax and APG-2575, due to the high difficulty of drug development associated with protein-protein interactions and the need for drugs to penetrate cell membranes and mitochondrial membranes [3][4] - Major pharmaceutical companies have attempted to develop Bcl-2 inhibitors over the past 20 years without success, highlighting the complexity of this target [4] Market Potential - The global targeted apoptosis therapy market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% from 2023 to 2030, reaching a market size of $22 billion by 2030 [6] - The approval of Lisatoclax is expected to change treatment paradigms and expand the market for Bcl-2 inhibitors, especially in combination therapies [6] Commercialization Strategy - The company plans to independently drive the commercialization of Lisatoclax in China, aiming to explore additional indications beyond CLL/SLL [7][8] - The CEO emphasizes the importance of generating profits from product sales to support ongoing research and development, aiming for the company to achieve overall profitability by 2027 [8] Industry Trends - Following the success of APG-2575, other Chinese companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics are also developing Bcl-2 inhibitors, indicating a shift towards a new ecosystem of anti-cancer drugs led by Chinese enterprises [9]

Company Update - The company announced that its self-developed Bcl-2 selective inhibitor, APG-2575 (also known as Lisangtuo), received conditional approval from the National Medical Products Administration of China for the treatment of adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) who have previously undergone at least one systemic therapy including a Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor [1] - Lisangtuo is the first Bcl-2 inhibitor approved in China for the treatment of CLL/SLL and the second globally, following AbbVie's venetoclax [1] Clinical Value and Research - The approval of Lisangtuo is based on a pivotal Phase II clinical study (APG2575CC201) that demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) meeting the predefined endpoint for patients who failed BTK inhibitors and/or immunochemotherapy, with a favorable safety profile [2] - The drug has been included in the "CSCO Lymphoma Diagnosis and Treatment Guidelines 2025" as of April 2025 [2] - The company is conducting four global Phase III clinical studies to further explore Lisangtuo's indications, including studies for treated CLL/SLL patients and newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 at a loss of 1.09 billion yuan and 320 million yuan, respectively [2] - Given the approval of Lisangtuo and the potential for global indication expansion, the company maintains an outperform rating and raises the target price by 27.5% to 88 HKD, indicating a 15.3% upside from the current stock price [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has received conditional approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for its self-developed Bcl-2 selective inhibitor APG-2575, marking it as the first domestically produced Bcl-2 inhibitor to be launched in China [7] - APG-2575 is positioned as a new treatment option for adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) who have previously undergone at least one systemic therapy, including BTK inhibitors [7] - The company expects rapid revenue growth driven by the sales of its drug Aolebatin and potential payments from Takeda, with projected revenues of 5.19 billion, 32.15 billion, and 20.95 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 980.65 million yuan in 2024, followed by 519 million yuan in 2025, and then a significant increase to 3,215 million yuan in 2026, before declining to 2,095 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be (405.43) million yuan in 2024, (726.53) million yuan in 2025, 1,097.79 million yuan in 2026, and (841.66) million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be (1.16) yuan in 2024, (2.08) yuan in 2025, 3.15 yuan in 2026, and (2.42) yuan in 2027 [1][8]

Core Insights - The clinical data for Aosheng Pharmaceutical's core product, Orebatinib, presented at the EHA annual meeting indicates its potential to improve long-term outcomes for patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph+ ALL) through various combination therapies [1] - Aosheng Pharmaceutical's APG-2575 showed promising results in treating myeloid malignancies, enhancing its commercial prospects against competitors like Venetoclax [2] - The company is expected to experience rapid revenue growth due to the sales ramp-up of Orebatinib and potential payments from Takeda, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating significant increases [3] Group 1: Orebatinib Clinical Data - Orebatinib combined with Belinostat in a single-arm clinical trial for Ph+ or Ph-like ALL showed a median follow-up of 17 months, with a complete response (CR) rate of 100% after one treatment cycle and an overall survival (OS) rate of 100% at 18 months [1] - In the Orebatinib combined with VP regimen for adult Ph+ ALL, the overall response rate (ORR) was 100%, with a CR rate of 97.3% and a 2-year OS rate of 96.3% [1] Group 2: APG-2575 Clinical Data - The ASCO annual meeting revealed that APG-2575 combined with Azacitidine in a clinical study for previously treated or untreated myeloid malignancies had an ORR of 31.8%, with 4.6% of patients achieving a partial response (PR) [2] - The data suggests that APG-2575 may have a competitive edge over Venetoclax, particularly in differentiated indications, and the company is also exploring potential markets in MDS and MM [2] Group 3: Revenue Forecast and Investment Outlook - The company anticipates rapid revenue growth, maintaining revenue forecasts of 519 million yuan and 3.215 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with an additional forecast of 2.095 billion yuan for 2027 [3] - The strong growth outlook is supported by the overseas market potential and the expected sales increase of Orebatinib, leading to a "buy" rating for the stock [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Ascentage Pharma Company Overview - **Company**: Ascentage Pharma - **Focus**: Development of innovative anti-cancer therapies, particularly BCL-2 selective inhibitors and MDM2-P53 pathway inhibitors Key Points Industry and Product Highlights - **APG2,575**: A selective BCL-2 inhibitor showing significant efficacy in patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) - Overall Response Rate (ORR) in treatment-naive patients is 83% and 43% in relapsed/refractory patients - ORR of 31% in patients previously treated with Venetoclax, indicating potential for hard-to-treat cases [2][4] - Faster onset of action (Tmax of 3-8 hours vs. 25-30 hours for Venetoclax) and shorter half-life (3-5 hours vs. 25-30 hours) [2][6] - Lower incidence of tumor lysis syndrome compared to Venetoclax [6] - **APG115**: An MDM2-P53 pathway inhibitor with potential applications across various cancer types - Clinical data presented at ASCO showed promising results, particularly in neuroendocrine tumors (ACC) [2][7][11] - In a Phase II trial, 2 complete responses and significant disease stabilization were observed [11] Clinical Development Plans - Ascentage Pharma plans to continue advancing APG2,575 and APG115 through global clinical trials, including registration studies for high-risk MDS and treatment-naive AML patients [4][12] - Ongoing discussions with regulatory bodies regarding the next steps for APG115 registration studies [12] Competitive Landscape - Venetoclax has shown lower infection rates and better tolerability in nearly 100 AML and MDS patients, establishing it as a standard treatment [10] - Ascentage Pharma is positioned as the second company globally to enter BCL-2 inhibitor clinical trials, with IND approval obtained [16] Future Directions - The company aims to strengthen collaborations with leading research institutions and companies to accelerate the development of new anti-cancer therapies [9][25] - Focus on expanding clinical trials and exploring combination therapies to address unmet medical needs in oncology [25] Market Potential - The market for multiple myeloma is substantial, with sales exceeding $30 billion in 2024, and Ascentage's BCL-2 inhibitors are expected to play a significant role [23][24] - The company is exploring registration clinical plans for multiple myeloma based on promising safety and efficacy data [24] Additional Insights - The company is actively pursuing global registration studies and expanding patient enrollment in ongoing trials [15][21] - Emphasis on the importance of safety and tolerability in the development of BCL-2 inhibitors, especially in comparison to existing therapies [18][24] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting Ascentage Pharma's commitment to advancing innovative cancer therapies and addressing significant market opportunities.