交银国际发布研报称，百济神州(06160)去年第四季泽布替尼销售额11亿美元(下同)，同比及按季分别升 38%及10%，美国销售额8.45亿，同比及按季分别升37%及14%。在1LCLL患者中，泽布在BTK品类中 的份额约占一半、在所有治疗药物中约占四分之一。去年第四季毛利率同比提升4.7个百分点至90.5%， 一般及行政费用费用率同比下降7.7百分点，non-GAAP净利润同比大增至2.25亿。公司指引2026年收入 62亿至64亿，GAAP经营费用47亿至49亿元，毛利率在80%区间的高位，non-GAAP净利润14亿至15亿 元，维持"买入"评级。 该行指公司聚焦四大领域：1)慢淋：索托克拉有望年内在欧美上市，BTK CDAC有望2H26提交上市申 请。泽布+索托(ZS)固定周期疗法首个同机制对照III期近期已启动。未来有望形成ZS主攻一线、CDAC 单药和索托+CDAC FDR等主攻复发难治人群的布局。2)其他血液瘤：依托泽布、索托等后期品种和 CD19/CD20靶向三抗、双抗和细胞疗法，拓展至其他淋巴瘤、MM、AML等适应症。3)实体瘤：着力在 乳腺癌、肺癌和消化道肿瘤。近期PD-1+HER2双抗+ ...

该行指公司聚焦四大领域：1)慢淋：索托克拉有望年内在欧美上市，BTK CDAC有望2H26提交上市申 请。泽布+索托(ZS)固定周期疗法首个同机制对照III期近期已启动。未来有望形成ZS主攻一线、CDAC 单药和索托+CDAC FDR等主攻复发难治人群的布局。2)其他血液瘤：依托泽布、索托等后期品种和 CD19/CD20靶向三抗、双抗和细胞疗法，拓展至其他淋巴瘤、MM、AML等适应症。3)实体瘤：着力在 乳腺癌、肺癌和消化道肿瘤。近期PD-1+HER2双抗+化疗方案在1LHER2+胃癌上取得成功，有望扩大海 外应用场景。CDK4、B7H4 ADC、GPC3/4-1BB双抗已进入或将在未来12个月内启动注册性研究。4)炎 症/免疫：2026年将读出BTK CDAC、IRAK4 CDAC 早期数据。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，百济神州(06160)去年第四季泽布替尼销售额11亿美元(下 同)，同比及按季分别升38%及10%，美国销售额8.45亿，同比及按季分别升37%及14%。在1LCLL患者 中，泽布在BTK品类中的份额约占一半、在所有治疗药物中约占四分之一。去年第四季毛利率同比提升 4.7个百分 ...

2026年3月2日，百济神州披露接待调研公告，公司于2月27日接待淡水泉、APS Asset、AJ Asset Management、BOCOM International、Boyu Capital、Capital Group等196家机构调研。 调研情况显示，公司管理层表示2025年第四季度业绩体现稳健执行：兑现年初财务承诺，实现产品收入 显著增长、美国GAAP盈利与可观现金流。百悦泽®（泽布替尼）在2025年于美国及全球BTK抑制剂市 场位居榜首，长期数据进一步巩固其在CLL治疗中的有效性与安全性标杆（6年PFS／OS分别为74％／ 84％，COVID调整后77％／87％），并强调其为目前唯一在头对头试验中展现较伊布替尼PFS优效的 BTK抑制剂；公司同时提出推动CLL创新的三项目标，并围绕"持续治疗＋固定疗程"两类需求布局，认 为泽布替尼联合索托克拉（ZS）具备进入现有固定疗程市场的机会。 研发方面公司称2025年取得多项进展：索托克拉在中国获批用于复发／难治性MCL与CLL，复发／难 治性MCL申报在美欧审评中且预计上半年获FDA批准；BTK降解剂推进至注册性试验并启动多项3期 （含与匹妥布替尼头对头 ...

合作产品中国销售：全年实现收入6.2亿美元(同比+20%)，主要得益于地舒单抗和贝林妥欧单抗的增 长。 智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，维持百济神州(06160)"优于大市"评级，维持FY26/27营收预 测64亿/71亿美元，略微调整FY26/27的归母净利润预测至6.1亿/10.4亿美元，该行使用现金流折现(DCF) 模型及FY27-FY35的现金流进行估值。基于WACC 9%，永续增长率4.0%(均不变)，对应目标价212.09港 元。 海通国际主要观点如下： 2025业绩快报 2025年百济神州实现收入53.4亿美元(同比+40%)，其中产品收入52.8亿美元，符合该行预测(52.7亿美 元)，略超此前管理层指引的50-53亿美元。归母净利润2.9亿美元，实现年度经常性业务扭亏。管理层预 计2026年公司将实现收入62-64亿美元，实现GAAP经营利润7-8亿美元。 泽布替尼放量符合预期，美国市场增长强劲 泽布替尼：全年实现收入39.3亿美元(同比+49%)。其中，美国销售28亿美元(同比+45%)，欧洲销售6.0 亿美元(同比+66%)，中国销售3.4亿美元(同比+33%)。4Q25泽布替尼 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in the development and approval of innovative drugs, with a focus on oncology and immunotherapy [5][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Latest Policy Updates - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has issued several key announcements, including guidelines to strengthen the supervision of entrusted drug production and the release of the 2025 Clinical Application Guidelines for Antitumor Drugs [10][15][18]. - New regulations aim to support the development of innovative drugs and ensure the quality and safety of pharmaceuticals through enhanced management practices [11][12][14]. 2. Domestic New Drug Approvals - In January 2026, a total of 172 new drugs were approved for clinical trials, a decrease of 55 from the previous month. Among these, 78 were chemical drugs, 88 were biological products, and 6 were traditional Chinese medicines [22][23]. - The majority of new drug approvals were in the fields of oncology and immune modulation, accounting for 53% of the total [22]. 3. Global Innovative Drug Development - The report lists several drugs that have shown positive clinical results, including Neumora Therapeutics' NMRA-511 and GSK's new hepatitis B drug, which achieved success in phase 3 studies [6][10]. - Notable approvals include the BCL-2 inhibitor from BeiGene, which received dual indications for chronic lymphocytic leukemia and mantle cell lymphoma [40][41]. 4. New Drug Listings - The report details new drug listings, including the approval of the combination drug for ADHD treatment by Aikobai, which has shown significant efficacy in clinical trials [41][43]. - The approval of Merck's drug for pulmonary arterial hypertension represents a new treatment option that addresses the underlying causes of the disease rather than just symptomatic relief [40].

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical industry in A-shares is showing a recovery trend, with some companies exceeding performance expectations for 2025 [1][14] - WuXi AppTec expects revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 15.84%, and a net profit of approximately 19.151 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 102.65% [1][15] - WuXi AppTec's performance is driven by stable growth in its main business and the sale of equity in three companies, generating nearly 5.6 billion yuan in revenue [1][15] Group 2 - WoHua Pharmaceutical anticipates a net profit between 80 million and 115 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 119.76% to 215.90% [2][16] - The growth in WoHua's performance is attributed to the price-volume trade-off trend after the entry of its product into centralized procurement and the extension to outpatient markets [3][17] Group 3 - Kangchen Pharmaceutical expects a net profit between 14.5 million and 17.5 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 243% to 315% [4][19] - The company attributes its performance to the absence of goodwill impairment provisions for 2025, following a decline in revenue from a previously acquired business [5][19] Group 4 - Baiaosaitu is projected to achieve a net profit growth of 249.5% in 2025, with expected revenue of 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.75% [6][20] - The company began to achieve commercial profitability in 2024, successfully turning around its financial performance [6][20] Group 5 - The Chinese pharmaceutical market is expected to see significant developments in 2026, with a focus on innovative drug research and business development (BD) [7][21] - China has become the second-largest market for innovative drug launches globally, with leading pharmaceutical companies showing R&D intensities close to global averages [7][21] Group 6 - The total value of innovative drug licensing transactions from China is expected to exceed 130 billion USD in 2025, indicating strong recognition of Chinese pipelines by overseas buyers [9][23] - The CXO service industry is recovering, with predictions that the market size will approach 100 billion USD in 2026, driven by increased demand from innovative drug development [9][23] Group 7 - The AI pharmaceutical sector is becoming increasingly active, with significant transactions and the listing of AI companies on stock exchanges [11][25] - The global market for AI solutions in healthcare is projected to grow from 13.7 billion USD in 2022 to 155.3 billion USD by 2030, highlighting the potential for companies in this space [13][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, specifically recommending stocks such as Micro-Invasive Brain Science, Xiangyu Medical, and Meihua Medical [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on brain-computer interfaces (BCI) as a strategic high ground in global technology, supported by national policies and significant investments [5][19]. - It highlights the approval of innovative drugs and therapies, such as the human thyroid-stimulating hormone beta and the HER2-targeted therapies, which are expected to set new standards in treatment [2][3]. - The report ranks sub-industries in terms of investment potential, with innovative drugs at the top, followed by research services, CXO, traditional Chinese medicine, medical devices, and pharmacies [3][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 7.81% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 5.03% [11]. - The report notes a significant rise in the healthcare sector, with medical services and devices showing strong performance [11]. Policy Support for Brain-Computer Interfaces - The "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies brain-computer interfaces as a key future industry, with a clear policy support from the government [18]. - The National Health Insurance Administration has established pricing standards for BCI procedures, indicating a commitment to support this emerging field [19][20]. R&D Progress and Company Dynamics - The report lists several companies with promising drug pipelines, including those focusing on PD1 PLUS, ADC, and small nucleic acids, suggesting specific stocks to watch [14]. - It provides a detailed overview of recent approvals and clinical trials, indicating a robust pipeline for innovative therapies [2][3]. Market Performance - The report highlights the significant gains in the pharmaceutical sector, with specific stocks like Innovation Medical and Sanbo Brain Science showing remarkable increases [11]. - It also notes the performance of H-shares, with companies like Jinfang Pharmaceutical-B and Shengnuo Pharmaceutical-B leading the gains [11].

Market Review - The CITIC Medical Index increased by 7.70%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.91 percentage points, ranking 5th among 30 primary industries [8] - The top ten stocks by increase this week include: Bibet-U, Innovation Medical, Sanbo Brain Science, and others, with significant gains [8] - The top ten stocks by decrease include: Baihua Medicine, Jinhao Medical, and others, with notable declines [8] Overall View and Investment Themes - The domestic innovative drug industry is transitioning from quantity logic to quality logic, focusing on differentiated and internationalized pipelines, with an emphasis on products that can generate profits by 2025 [11] - In the medical device sector, there is a noticeable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, with ongoing updates and acceleration in overseas expansion [11] - The innovative chain (CXO + life science services) is expected to see a rebound in overseas investment, with domestic investment stabilizing, indicating a potential bottoming out [11] - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, with cost improvements in specialty raw materials and a focus on patent expirations leading to new growth opportunities [11] Traditional Chinese Medicine - The basic drug directory is expected to be released, with unique basic drugs projected to grow faster than non-basic drugs, indicating a potential market rebound [12] - The reform of state-owned enterprises is expected to enhance the fundamental performance of companies, particularly after adjustments to the evaluation system [12] - The new medical insurance directory is expected to benefit certain companies, with a focus on OTC enterprises that cater to aging populations and have strong dividend characteristics [12] Medical Services - The anti-corruption and centralized procurement efforts are expected to purify the medical market environment, enhancing the competitiveness of private medical services [12] - The rapid expansion of commercial insurance and self-funded medical services is likely to provide more competitive advantages for private healthcare providers [12] Blood Products - The approval of plasma stations is expected to increase supply, with companies expanding their product offerings and production capacity, indicating a clear long-term growth path for the blood products industry [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the medical device sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in innovative drugs and medical devices [49]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a transition in the innovative drug sector from quantity to quality, suggesting a focus on differentiated products and internationalization by 2025 [11]. - In the medical device sector, there is a notable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, with a focus on companies like Mindray and United Imaging [11]. - The report identifies a significant growth potential in the orthopedic market due to aging demographics and increasing surgical penetration rates in China [43]. - The life sciences service sector is experiencing a demand recovery, driven by both domestic and international market needs, with a focus on the importance of mergers and acquisitions for growth [50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The medical index rose by 7.70%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.91 percentage points, ranking 5th among 30 sectors [7]. - The top-performing stocks included Baitai, Innovation Medical, and Sanbo Neuroscience, while the worst performers were Baihua Pharmaceutical and Jinhao Medical [7]. Overall Views and Investment Themes - Innovative drugs are expected to see a shift towards quality, with a focus on companies like BeiGene and Innovent [11]. - Medical devices are benefiting from a recovery in bidding for imaging equipment and a push for domestic substitutes in the market [11]. - The innovative chain (CXO + life sciences services) is anticipated to see a rebound in investment, with a focus on high-growth potential companies [11]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the blood products sector, with an emphasis on companies like TianTan Biological and Boya Biological [11]. Specific Company Insights - Neuralink is positioned as a leader in the invasive brain-computer interface sector, with significant advancements in its technology and clinical trials [21]. - Synchron is noted for its endovascular brain-computer interface, which offers a safer solution for severely paralyzed patients [25]. - Paradromics focuses on high-bandwidth brain-computer interfaces, aiming to decode complex human intentions [32]. - CorTec is pioneering closed-loop brain-computer interfaces, providing real-time interaction between the brain and external devices [36]. - Precision Neuroscience is innovating minimally invasive implantation techniques for brain-computer interfaces [39]. - Blackrock Neurotech is recognized for its comprehensive solutions in the brain-computer interface field, aiding patients with sensory restoration and control [42].

Group 1: Overall Industry Outlook - In 2026, the pharmaceutical industry is expected to experience a surge in innovative drugs, a recovery in the CXO sector, transformation in traditional Chinese medicine, contraction of retail pharmacies, restructuring of hospitals, and a wave of mergers and acquisitions, leading to increased industry differentiation and stronger players remaining dominant [1] Group 2: Innovative Drugs - A total of 76 innovative drugs were approved in 2025, marking a 58% increase from the previous year, with over 150 licensing transactions totaling more than $130 billion, indicating robust growth in China's innovative drug sector [3] - Approximately 20 major innovative drugs are anticipated to be approved in China in 2026, covering various therapeutic areas including oncology and rare diseases, with notable examples such as BL-B01D1 for esophageal squamous carcinoma [3][4] Group 3: CXO Sector - The CXO (Contract Research Organization) industry is experiencing a recovery driven by external factors such as U.S. interest rate cuts and increased R&D investments from multinational pharmaceutical companies, alongside domestic demand for CRO services [5][6] - The penetration rate of outsourcing in areas like ADCs and oligonucleotides is expected to rise to 65%, with companies like WuXi AppTec and Kelun Biotech showing strong growth in these segments [6] Group 4: Traditional Chinese Medicine - The Chinese medicine sector is entering an era of refined management, driven by policy upgrades and market innovations, with a focus on quality and cost balance in procurement [7][9] - By the end of 2026, China aims to establish 180 domestic and 30 international standards for traditional Chinese medicine, with the market expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024 [9] Group 5: Medical Devices - The medical device industry is shifting from price suppression to innovation-driven growth, with domestic companies rapidly advancing in high-end imaging, surgical robots, and AI medical devices [10] - Chinese medical device companies are increasingly expanding into international markets, with a notable rise in export volumes expected by 2026 [10] Group 6: Retail Pharmacies - The offline pharmacy sector is projected to contract significantly due to the growth of O2O and B2C models, with over 15,975 stores closing by September 2025, reflecting a 73% year-on-year increase in closures [12][13] Group 7: Private Hospitals - Private hospitals are facing severe challenges, with an average of 1.4 closures per day in 2024, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026 due to regulatory pressures and financial difficulties [14][15]