Core Viewpoint - ServiceNow's stock experienced a significant decline of 37% over nearly three months, driven by concerns over AI disruption, cautious FY26 outlook, and aggressive acquisition strategies, overshadowing modest revenue growth and share repurchase initiatives [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock fell 37%, influenced by a modest 4.8% revenue increase and a 3.7% margin decrease [3]. - Valuation saw a sharp decline of 37%, contributing to the overall stock drop [3]. Group 2: Earnings and Guidance - Q4 2025 earnings surpassed revenue and non-GAAP EPS expectations, but diluted EPS fell short, leading to an 11% stock decrease on January 29, 2026 [8]. - FY26 guidance for revenue was below analyst expectations, raising concerns among investors [8]. Group 3: Acquisition and Market Concerns - There are worries regarding the impact of expensive acquisitions, such as Moveworks and Armis, on the company's financial health [8]. - Investors are concerned that competitors may leverage AI tools to replicate software, posing a threat to the SaaS sector [8]. Group 4: Stock Actions - A 5-for-1 stock split on December 17, 2025, and a $5 billion buyback did not alleviate negative sentiment surrounding the stock [8].

Core Insights - A significant correction of approximately 35% in a defensive tech stock raises concerns about the reliability of such investments, which are typically perceived as lower risk [1] Group 1 - The article discusses the unexpected magnitude of risk associated with defensive tech investments, contrasting them with more traditional growth or opportunistic bets [1] - The author emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks involved in defensive tech calls, especially when they lead to substantial corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and its implications for various industries, highlighting both opportunities and risks associated with AI adoption. Group 1: AI Disruption and Risks - Jon Gray, President of Blackstone, emphasizes that the greatest risk posed by AI is the rapid disruption of specific industries, citing examples such as JPMorgan using AI to replace proxy advisory services [5] - Blackstone is actively assessing the risks associated with AI disruption, while also recognizing the potential for AI to drive significant productivity gains and enhance profit margins across many sectors [5] Group 2: Power Supply Risks - A report indicates that up to 151 million Americans face a high risk of power shortages or blackouts in the next five years due to extreme weather, fragile natural gas systems, and surging electricity demand [6] - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) highlights that the threat level has significantly increased compared to the previous year, driven by aging infrastructure and the overload from expanding data centers [6] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - SpaceX is reportedly considering a merger with Tesla or xAI, reflecting Elon Musk's strategy to integrate his business ventures [7][8] - Investors are pushing for the feasibility of a merger between SpaceX and Tesla, as well as a potential integration with xAI before an initial public offering (IPO) [8] Group 4: Software Sector Concerns - Concerns over AI disrupting traditional software licenses and workflows have led to a bear market for software stocks, with ServiceNow experiencing a 10% drop [9] - The North American Technology Software Index ETF (IGV) fell by 5.4%, marking its largest single-day decline since April 2025, and has dropped approximately 22% from recent highs, indicating a formal entry into bear market territory [9] Group 5: Major Corporate Developments - Amazon is reportedly in talks to invest up to $50 billion in OpenAI, with the latter's valuation potentially reaching $830 billion [12] - Apple reported first-quarter revenue of $143.76 billion, exceeding expectations with a 16% year-over-year growth, driven by strong iPhone sales [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for ServiceNow, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - ServiceNow reported a total revenue increase of 21% YoY to US$3.57 billion in 4Q25, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates. Non-GAAP operating income grew by 26% YoY to US$1.10 billion, exceeding consensus by 3% due to AI-enhanced efficiencies and disciplined expense control [1]. - For FY26E, management guided subscription revenue to increase by 20.5%-21% YoY to US$15.53-15.57 billion, with a further 100bps expansion of both non-GAAP operating profit and free cash flow margin to 32% and 36%, respectively, driven by AI-enabled efficiency gains [1]. - The AI product momentum remains strong, with Now Assist annual contract value (ACV) surpassing US$600 million in 4Q25, ahead of the previous target of US$500 million and on track to reach US$1 billion by FY26-end [1]. - The target price for ServiceNow has been lowered to US$215.00 based on a 40x FY26E EV/EBITDA, down from US$236.00 based on a 45x FY26E EV/EBITDA, reflecting sector valuation impacts due to increased competition from AI and LLM service providers [1][12]. Financial Summary - For FY26E, total revenue is projected at US$15.973 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach US$4.518 billion, resulting in an adjusted EPS of US$4.36 [2]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately US$122.22 billion, with a current share price of US$116.73, indicating an upside potential of 84.2% to the target price [3][4]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin expanded by 1.4 percentage points YoY to 30.9% in 4Q25, attributed to improved efficiency and disciplined expense control [9]. Growth Projections - Subscription revenue is expected to grow by 20.3% in FY26E, with adjusted net profit growth projected at 23.2% [15]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 20.5%-21% for FY26E, with further growth expected in subsequent years [1][14]. Valuation - The valuation of ServiceNow is set at US$215.00 per share based on a target EV/EBITDA of 40x for FY26E, which is at a premium to the sector average of 29x, justified by the strong earnings growth outlook [12][13].

Market Overview - The global financial markets experienced significant volatility, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply after reaching historical highs, with maximum intraday declines of over 5% and 8% respectively [1][9][10] - The U.S. stock market also faced turbulence, with the Nasdaq index plunging 2.6% at one point before closing down 0.72% [2][11] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a major sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping over 5% to below $85,000, while Ethereum and other altcoins experienced declines exceeding 6% [3][6] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks also suffered, with Strategy stock falling over 9% and Coinbase Global down more than 4% [5] Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, falling from a peak of $5,600 per ounce to $5,105.83, marking a maximum drop of 5.7% before rebounding [9] - Silver prices also fell from a historical high of $121.67 per ounce to $106.80, with a maximum intraday decline of 8.5% [9] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing skepticism regarding Bitcoin's status as a macro hedge, as it has underperformed compared to gold and silver despite rising geopolitical tensions [6][7] - Recent data indicates that Bitcoin holders have entered a loss realization phase for the first time in 2023, suggesting a decline in investor confidence [6] Corporate Earnings Impact - Microsoft shares plummeted nearly 12% during trading after reporting a slowdown in cloud business growth, impacting the software sector significantly [11][12] - Other tech stocks reacted variably, with Meta seeing a 10.4% increase after announcing substantial capital expenditure plans, while other companies like ServiceNow and SAP faced declines [12][13]

It's all about the M stupid. I'm talking about the multiple or more accuracy the price to earnings multiple and what it tells you about a stock and where it's going in how to make money in any market. I spend a huge amount of time explaining how the multiple works because it's the M shorthand for price to earnings multiple that actually determines the price of a stock.This is some something that really just confounds many people. Even the young hires I taught at Goldman Sachs oh so many years ago. The M is ...

Core Viewpoint - The price-to-earnings multiple (referred to as "M") is crucial in determining stock prices and investor sentiment, particularly in the enterprise software sector, which is currently facing significant challenges due to concerns over AI replacing human employees [1][2][3]. Company Analysis - Service Now is highlighted as a strong company with a respected CEO, known for its ability to automate and digitize business processes, thereby improving efficiency [4][5]. - Despite Service Now's strong earnings and growth, its stock has declined over 50% in the past year, with a notable drop in its price-to-earnings multiple from 65 times forward earnings at the end of 2024 to just under 28 times earnings currently [6][8]. - The market is skeptical about Service Now's future profitability, believing that AI advancements will lead to reduced demand for user-based pricing, which poses an existential threat to the company [7][10]. Industry Context - The enterprise software industry, particularly companies like Service Now and Salesforce, is experiencing multiple compression, indicating that even with strong earnings, investor confidence is waning [10][12]. - The market's perception of growth potential is critical, as it currently views these companies as no longer being growth names despite their ongoing strong performance [11][12]. - There is an expectation that the price-to-earnings multiple may continue to shrink before it stabilizes, suggesting a potential buying opportunity in the future once the bottom is reached [13].

智通财经1月30日讯（编辑 赵昊）周四（1月29日），微软暴跌拖累美股早盘走低，但三大指数盘中持续缩小跌幅，最终道指收盘转涨。 截至收盘，标普500指数跌0.13%，报6969.01点；纳斯达克综合指数跌0.72%，报23685.12点。盘中，两只指数分别一度跌1.5%和2.6%。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | 0 | 49071.56 | +55.96 | 0.11% | | 标普500指数 | | 6969.01 | -9.02 | -0.13% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | | 23685.12 | -172.33 | -0.72% | 道琼斯指数涨0.11%，报49071.56点，盘中一度跌0.85%。30只成分股中，22家上涨8家下跌，IBM、霍尼韦尔涨近5%，弥补了微软跌约10%的拖累。 前一交易日，微软发布的业绩报告显示，公司云业务增速从40%放缓至39%；毛利率约为68%，降至三年来最低。微软周四收跌9.99%，盘中一度跌逾12%。 微软的暴跌重创软件板块，季度盈利和营收均好于预期的Se ...

Group 1 - Major stock indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, experienced a sharp decline after initially gaining, as Wall Street reacted to significant earnings reports [1] - Microsoft reported strong results for the December quarter but fell short of expectations for Azure growth, leading to a drop in its stock price [1] - Tesla's stock also declined as the market assessed its transition to a 'Transportation-As-A-Service' model and substantial capital expenditures [1] Group 2 - Meta Platforms saw strong gains, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighting a 'major AI acceleration' that contributed to a positive sales forecast [1] - ServiceNow's Q4 earnings results were disappointing, contributing to a sell-off in software stocks [1] - A notable oil stock surged by 24% in early 2026, indicating a positive trend in the oil sector amidst mixed market conditions [1]

Core Insights - ServiceNow (NOW) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 92 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.75% and reflecting a 26% year-over-year increase. Revenues reached $3.57 billion, surpassing the consensus mark by 1.25% and increasing by 20.7% year over year [1][8]. Revenue Performance - Subscription revenues improved by 20.9% year over year to $3.47 billion, while on a constant currency basis, revenues increased by 19.5% to $3.41 billion. Professional services and other revenues rose by 12.1% year over year to $102 million, with a constant currency increase of 11% to $101 million [2]. - The current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) stood at $12.85 billion, marking a 25% year-over-year increase on a reported basis and a 21% increase on a constant currency basis. Remaining performance obligations on a constant currency basis rose 22.5% year over year to $28.2 billion [3]. Client Growth and Product Performance - The company recorded 244 transactions exceeding $1 million in net new annual contract value (ACV) in Q4 2025, representing nearly 40% year-over-year growth. ServiceNow ended the quarter with 603 customers with over $5 million in ACV, reflecting approximately 20% year-over-year growth [4]. - AI-powered products such as Now Assist and Raptor significantly contributed to the growth in net new ACV, with RaptorDB Pro tripling its net new ACV year over year. The number of workflows and transactions grew over 33%, increasing from $60 billion to $80 billion and from $4.8 trillion to $6.4 trillion, respectively [5][6]. Operating Metrics - In Q4 2025, the non-GAAP gross margin was 80.3%, down 160 basis points year over year. The subscription gross margin was 82.7%, also contracting by 160 basis points year over year. Professional services reported a gross loss of $2 million compared to a gross income of $7 million in the previous year [7]. - Operating expenses as a percentage of revenues decreased by 180 basis points year over year to 64.2%, while the non-GAAP operating margin expanded by 140 basis points year over year to 30.9% [9]. Cash Flow and Share Repurchase - As of December 31, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities totaling $6.28 billion, up from $5.41 billion as of September 30, 2025. Cash from operations was $2.24 billion, compared to $813 million in the previous quarter, with free cash flow reaching $2.03 billion, up from $592 million in the prior quarter [10]. - The company repurchased 3.6 million shares in Q4 2025 and announced a new share repurchase authorization worth $5 billion, along with plans for a $2 billion accelerated share repurchase program [11]. Guidance for 2026 - For 2026, ServiceNow expects subscription revenues to be between $15.53 billion and $15.57 billion, indicating a rise of 20.5% to 21% from 2025. The guidance includes a 1% contribution from Moveworks. The non-GAAP subscription gross margin is anticipated to be 82%, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 32% and a free cash flow margin expected to be 36% [12]. - For Q1 2026, subscription revenues are projected to be between $3.65 billion and $3.67 billion, suggesting year-over-year growth of 21.5% on a GAAP basis [13][14].