Core Viewpoint - The software sector is experiencing significant selling pressure, officially entering a bear market, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF down 27% from its September 2025 peak [3][7]. Market Performance - The software sector faced a 3% decline on Wednesday, following a severe sell-off on Tuesday, driven by concerns over new AI tools impacting legal software stocks [1][2]. - Major software stocks such as Oracle, Varonis, CommVault, and Circle have seen declines of over 50% from their September highs [15]. Valuation Concerns - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P software index has fallen sharply to below 60x, down from a peak of around 85x last summer, indicating a significant drop in valuations [11]. - The current market sentiment reflects fears of an AI bubble and the high valuations of tech stocks, leading to uncertainty about the future business models of software companies [4]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are grappling with whether the challenges posed by AI tools represent existential threats to software companies or if these companies can adapt to new market realities [5]. - Analysts suggest that the earnings estimates for software companies may be overly optimistic, contributing to the current market downturn [18]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that most software stocks may have further downside potential, with estimates of an additional 10%-20% decline before reaching support levels [16][17]. - The market is currently in a "guilty until proven innocent" phase, where investors are cautious and may continue to punish companies until stronger earnings growth is observed [17].

周五的金属价格暴跌行情在亚洲市场延续，金、银、铜价格均大幅下跌。Pepperstone的Michael Brown 表示，现在的问题是接下来会发生什么。该策略师表示，可以说，与之前的上涨行情一样，此轮回调已 是过度、过快。他补充说，市场很有可能会出现一波"死猫式反弹"。从长远来看，看涨理由很充分：储 备需求和散户需求均保持健康，而寻求地缘政治对冲的投资者仍将主要涌向贵金属，而非美元或美国国 债。一个关键因素将是，市场泡沫是否已被充分挤出，以及投机性头寸是否被充分洗出，从而让基本面 重新成为主导因素。 ...

·美银：澳储行通胀预测失误或将促使其加息 ·德商银行：沃勒投反对票意在角逐美联储主席之位 ·世界黄金协会：全球黄金ETF增持空间仍大 ·日美联合支撑日元概率不大且成效存疑 ·韩元即将迎来13年来最长的连续上涨 ·印度卢比再创历史新低 ·Optimal Economics：澳储行今年或将完全逆转2025年的降息举措 【机构分析】 ·德国商业银行经济学家指出，美联储理事沃勒对美联储维持利率不变的决定投下反对票，应被视为其 角逐美联储主席职位的一次行动。若拒绝特朗普强烈要求的降息，可能会大幅降低沃勒的获选概率。在 预测市场上，目前沃勒的支持率仍落后于贝莱德高管里克·里德尔及前美联储理事凯文·沃什。Principal Asset Management全球首席策略师希玛·沙阿表示，随着时间推移，沃勒关于政策需要更接近中性立场的 论点可能会获得更多支持——尤其是在劳动力市场降温迹象变得更加确凿且通胀下行趋势持续的情况 下。 ·周四，印度卢比汇率跌至历史最低点。持续疲弱的外资流动以及企业对冲汇率进一步贬值风险的急切 行为，共同压制了经济基本面的积极影响。卢比兑美元汇率跌至91.9850，打破了上周创下的91.9650的 历 ...

Core Insights - Pepperstone has achieved significant recognition in the trading industry by winning four major international awards in early 2026, reinforcing its position as a leading online broker [1][2][3] Group 1: Awards and Recognition - The Overall Best Forex Broker award highlights Pepperstone's excellence in execution, spreads, and customer service [2][5] - The Best MT4 Forex Broker award emphasizes Pepperstone's superior offering on the widely used forex trading platform [2][5] - The Best Spread Betting Broker award acknowledges Pepperstone's innovative approach to diverse trading strategies and reliable access to global markets [2][5] - The Best in Class Trading Fees award from ForexBrokers.com reflects the company's commitment to providing ultra-low costs while maintaining high quality [3][5] Group 2: Company Overview - Founded in 2010, Pepperstone serves over 830,000 clients across 150 countries and is regulated by multiple authorities including ASIC, FCA, and BaFin [4] - The company processes an average of US$12.55 billion in trades daily, positioning it among the largest CFD brokers globally [4] - Pepperstone focuses on fast execution, tight spreads, and a trader-first mentality, offering award-winning platforms and advanced trading features [3]

格隆汇1月27日｜亚洲交易时段，日元继续受益于上周金融监管部门进行汇率审查后形成的市场动能。 Pepperstone高级研究策略师迈克尔·布朗表示，市场参与者仍对潜在干预可能性保持警惕。他表示，由 于汇率审查通常是实际干预行动前的"最后警告"，当前形势已显著削弱了日元空头头寸的吸引力。布朗 认为，若日本财务省迟迟未采取干预行动，市场试探当局决心的可能性将随之增大——换言之，交易者 可能再次抛售日元，以探测政策制定者的心理承受底线。 ...

亚洲交易时段，美元走软的影响波及整个金属市场，现货 白银和 黄金价格均在早盘创下历史新高。尽 管录得这些涨幅，但Pepperstone的Michael Brown认为，贵金属的基本面看涨情景依然稳固。他列举的 理由包括稳健的储备需求，以及市场参与者对去美元化的持续追求。工业用途也给白银带来了利好。这 位高级研究策略师在一份报告中说："毫无疑问，我们在很短的时间内已经上涨了很多，这意味着一段 时间的盘整并无坏处，不过中期的'阻力最小路径'仍是继续指向上行。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The diplomatic and financial repercussions of President Trump's actions regarding NATO allies and Greenland have led to a decline in the dollar and a reassessment of U.S. asset exposure by European investors [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and European Investment - European investors hold approximately $8 trillion in U.S. stocks and bonds, with $3.6 trillion specifically in Treasury debt [2]. - Europe accounts for about one-third of U.S. government bonds held overseas, nearly doubling its holdings since 2019, which represents roughly 10% of the overall Treasury market [3]. - The significant amount of U.S. Treasuries held by Europe makes it unlikely for them to sell off these assets suddenly, as it would disrupt financial markets [3]. Group 2: Financial Implications of Selling Treasuries - If Europe were to sell its Treasuries, bond prices would drop sharply, causing negative spillover effects in the eurozone, including increased borrowing costs [7]. - The euro would likely appreciate significantly, creating challenges for eurozone exports and overall economic growth [7]. - European banks' reliance on dollar funding, which is supported by the Federal Reserve, complicates the situation further, as any retaliatory measures could have reciprocal financial costs [5].

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly silver and gold, are experiencing a record-breaking rally, with silver reaching an all-time high of $100.10 and gold nearing $5,000 at approximately $4,945.21 [1][2] - The surge in precious metal prices is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. President Donald Trump's actions and statements [3][4] Price Movements - Silver's price has increased nearly 4% to a record $100.10 [1] - Gold's price is approximately $4,945.21, slightly down from an earlier high of $4,970 [2] - Copper prices have also surged, surpassing $13,000 per ton, reaching as high as $13,173.50 [2] Market Dynamics - The rally in precious metals is driven by factors such as fear of missing out (FOMO) and a desire for safe-haven assets due to U.S.-European tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast from $4,900 to $5,400 by the end of 2026, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [2] Geopolitical Influences - Recent international events, including the U.S. capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, protests in Iran, and Trump's push to annex Greenland, have contributed to rising metals prices [4] - Trump's dropping of tariff threats against the EU has been seen as a factor that could have led to a decrease in metal prices, yet the unpredictability surrounding his presidency has led to increased gold demand as a hedge [3][4] Historical Context - In 2025, gold prices rose about 65% and silver surged as much as 150%, driven by federal interest rate cuts and increased demand for silver in technological industries [5] - A price squeeze in silver occurred due to fears of tariffs, leading to a shortage in the London trading hub [5]

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a significant rally due to geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar, with silver nearing $100 and gold approaching $5,000 [1][2] Price Movements - Silver's price increased over 3% to approximately $99.73, slightly down from a high of $99.92 earlier in the day [1] - Gold's price was around $4,941.30, down from a high of $4,970 [2] - Copper prices surged past $13,000 per ton, reaching as high as $13,173.50 [2] Market Trends - The precious metals rally has been ongoing since 2025, with Goldman Sachs raising its gold price forecast from $4,900 to $5,400 by the end of 2026 [2] - Analysts attribute the surge in precious metals prices to global uncertainty and a shift towards safe-haven assets amid U.S.-European tensions [3][4] Influencing Factors - Key events contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices include the U.S. capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, protests in Iran, and new export restrictions on silver imposed by China [4] - President Trump's actions regarding Greenland and his tariff threats have also played a role in increasing international tensions, further driving demand for precious metals [4] Historical Context - In 2025, gold prices rose by approximately 65%, while silver surged by as much as 150%, driven by federal interest rate cuts and increased demand in technological sectors [5] - A price squeeze in silver occurred due to fears of tariffs, leading to a shortage in London trading hubs [5]

摘要周一(1月19日)亚市尾盘，受特朗普宣布对八个反对其格陵兰岛计划的欧洲国家加征关税影响，市 场避险情绪骤升，黄金与白银周一双双刷新历史纪录。现货白银一度暴涨超4%，最高触及93.69美元/盎 司；现货黄金盘中涨逾2%，报4690美元/盎司，续创历史新高。 周一(1月19日)亚市尾盘，受特朗普宣布对八个反对其格陵兰岛计划的欧洲国家加征关税影响，市场避 险情绪骤升，黄金与白银周一双双刷新历史纪录。现货白银一度暴涨超4%，最高触及93.69美元/盎司； 现货黄金盘中涨逾2%，报4690美元/盎司，续创历史新高。 策略师观点分化：瑞穗称关税成"地缘武器"，ING警告欧美贸易战无赢家;Pepperstone认为威胁或 成"TACO时刻"(虎头蛇尾)，回调即买入机会。Kitco调查显示，华尔街对黄金分歧，散户看涨;OANDA 提醒技术超买或致回调，Zaye Capital则看好地缘支撑金价冲4700美元。 此外，美国最高法院本周或裁决特朗普用《国际紧急经济权力法》征关税的合法性，若败诉将削弱其关 税权力，财长贝森特则称"不太可能推翻"。 【技术分析】 当前全球局势波诡云谲，特朗普政策风向瞬息万变。技术面仅作辅助，基本 ...