Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Circular Economy** and the demand for **Critical Raw Materials (CRMs)** driven by industries such as **AI/Data Centers**, **Defense**, and **Energy** [1][6][10] - The geopolitical uncertainty and rising commodity prices have heightened the need for resource efficiency and circular solutions [1][6][10] Core Insights - **Rising Demand for CRMs**: The demand for CRMs is increasing due to their critical role in AI, data centers, and defense technologies. The U.S. has a high import reliance on these materials, with 12 out of 20 key materials having over 70% import reliance [9][21] - **Price Inflation**: Over the last two years, prices for key materials have surged, with copper increasing by over 50%, silver by over 300%, and aluminum by over 400% [1][10] - **Strategic Importance of Circular Solutions**: Circular solutions are becoming essential for securing raw material supply, with a focus on recycling and resource efficiency [1][10][45] - **Government Initiatives**: The U.S. has launched initiatives like **Project Vault** and a $12 billion reserve to build inventories and reduce time to market for new supplies [1][10] Key Catalysts for Circular Solutions 1. **Supply Concerns**: Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions are driving the need for supply diversification and circular economy strategies [10][56] 2. **Commodity Prices**: Rising prices are pushing companies to focus on resource efficiency and recycling [10][56] 3. **Energy Efficiency**: Circular solutions, such as recycled aluminum, are significantly more energy-efficient compared to primary production [10][67] 4. **Regulatory Support**: Growing regulatory frameworks are promoting recycling and circular economy solutions [10][45] Industry Players and Opportunities - Companies involved in the circular economy and recycling solutions include: - **North America**: Alcoa, Century Aluminum, Steel Dynamics, Nucor, Freeport McMoRan [5] - **EU**: Boliden, Glencore, Norsk Hydro, Aurubis [5] - **ROW**: BHP, Rio Tinto, Lynas Rare Earths [5] - Significant investments in recycling facilities are being made, such as Steel Dynamics' $2.5 billion facility and Novelis' $4.1 billion facility [69] Additional Insights - **Data Center Growth**: The U.S. has 1,941 active data centers and 2,779 announced, with a projected capacity increase from 91 GW in 2024 to 277 GW by 2035 [21][24] - **Defense Industry Dependence**: The defense sector relies heavily on CRMs, with specific materials required for advanced systems [28][30] - **New Energy Technologies**: The transition to renewable energy sources requires significantly more CRMs compared to traditional energy sources [35][37] Conclusion - The combination of rising demand for CRMs, geopolitical risks, and the push for sustainability is driving the adoption of circular economy practices. Companies that focus on recycling and resource efficiency are likely to benefit from these trends.

Core Viewpoint - The recent proclamation by U.S. President Donald Trump provides a two-year reprieve for coke oven facilities from stringent EPA rules, which is expected to stimulate growth in the U.S. steel supply chain and improve earnings for steel producers and coke-exposed miners [1][2]. Industry Impact - The easing of compliance pressure on metallurgical coke producers and related iron ore assets is anticipated to act as a significant growth catalyst for the U.S. steel supply chain [2]. - The proclamation is likely to reduce regulatory-driven shutdown risks for U.S. integrated steelmakers and metallurgical coke producers, providing a clearer investment landscape for ETFs focused on these sectors [3]. Trade and Tariff Context - The U.S. remains heavily reliant on steel imports, with nearly 25% of its steel supply coming from abroad, primarily from Mexico, Canada, and key allies in Asia and Europe [4]. - A 25% tariff on steel imports was previously imposed to bolster domestic production, but this has led to trade conflicts, particularly with China, resulting in a significant reduction in Chinese steel exports to the U.S. [5]. - Recent data indicates a 16.8% month-over-month decline in U.S. steel imports as of August 2025, attributed to the doubling of the Section 232 tariff from 25% to 50% [6]. Domestic Production and Costs - Trade tensions and tariffs have increased input costs for U.S. manufacturers, with domestic steel prices nearly double the global benchmark, putting pressure on downstream margins [7]. - The latest proclamation suggests that the U.S. administration is prioritizing industrial output stability, treating coke ovens and related facilities as national security infrastructure [8]. ETF Opportunities - The current environment is expected to enhance pricing power and volume predictability for companies in the steel and metallurgical coal sectors, benefiting ETFs that include U.S. steel producers and coke-linked mining companies [10]. - Notable ETFs include: - **State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME)**: AUM of $2.56 billion, up 38.6% year to date, with top holdings including Nucor Corp and Steel Dynamics [11][12][13]. - **VanEck Steel ETF (SLX)**: Net assets of $125.6 million, up 38.4% year to date, with major holdings in iron ore suppliers [14]. - **iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF (IYM)**: Net assets of $125.6 million, up 15.8% year to date, featuring significant investments in Nucor and Steel Dynamics [15].

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Steel - **Region**: North America - **Current Market View**: Prices are expected to remain relatively muted over the next six months due to soft demand, despite an anticipated fall in imports [1][2] Key Points Demand Dynamics - **Soft Demand**: Steel demand has been subdued since April 2024, with expectations of a muted six months before any significant improvement [3][4] - **Bifurcated Market**: Industrial sectors like heavy equipment, energy, and infrastructure are performing relatively well, while consumer-oriented segments are sluggish [3][4] - **Strong Segments**: Oilfield and OCTG steel volumes are strong, and solar and wind markets are benefiting from residual IRA-driven spending, although long-term visibility is limited [3][4] - **Weak Segments**: Truck and trailer demand has collapsed post-COVID, with recovery not expected until 2029. Consumer goods like garden equipment remain pressured by high interest rates and reduced discretionary spending [3][4] Import and Tariff Impact - **Declining Imports**: Import flows are expected to decline sharply due to a 50% tariff, which eliminates nearly all profit margins for foreign suppliers [4][7] - **Economic Incentive**: An Asian producer selling at $500/t would incur $250/t in duties and $35/t in freight, leading to a landed cost of approximately $785/t, making domestic prices more attractive [4][7] - **Potential "Steel Island"**: A self-contained steel market could emerge if Mexico and Canada adopt similar tariffs without exceptions [4][7] Price Stability - **Current Price Levels**: Steel prices are expected to remain stable around $800/t, with transaction levels around $750/t [7][8] - **Limited Catalysts**: There are limited near-term catalysts to break current price levels, with healthy inventory levels and excess capacity limiting upside [7][8] - **Potential Upside**: Accelerated interest rate cuts or reduced trade escalation rhetoric with China could provide a bullish case [7][8] - **Downside Risks**: An unexpected relaxing of tariffs on Mexico and Canada could trigger downside risks, with base prices potentially around $600/t without the current tariffs [7][8] Company Insights - **Nucor**: Continues to hold its weekly listed HRC price stable at $875/t for eight consecutive weeks, focusing on vertical integration [8] - **Nippon's Strategy**: Ownership of U.S. Steel has led to a strategic shift towards integrated customer solutions rather than individual product sales [8] - **Cleveland-Cliffs**: Has been quicker to offer discounts to secure sales volumes and benefit from fixed-cost dilution [8] Additional Considerations - **Cautious Outlook**: The overall tone remains cautious with near-term stagnation expected until mid-2Q26 when inventories normalize and policy clarity improves [3][4] - **Bipartisan Support for Tariffs**: U.S. tariff policy on steel continues to receive bipartisan support, which is crucial for the industry's stability in the current demand environment [4][7]

两国将设定钢铝关税的豁免配额。 美国钢铁公司（X）美股盘后涨0.018%，纽柯钢铁（NUE）和Steel Dynamics Inc盘后持平。 两国将谈判优惠的英国医药关税待遇。 文本显示，美国与英国的协议提及钢铁和铝关税豁免问题。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [5]. Core Insights - The United States and Mexico are negotiating a trade deal to remove the 50% tariff on steel imports, allowing Mexico to export tariff-free steel to the US up to a certain volume [1]. - The US was a net exporter of steel to Mexico in 2024, exporting approximately 4.78 million tons while importing around 3.51 million tons [4]. - The potential shift to a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system for Mexico could negatively impact long steel producers, as Mexico is a net exporter of rebar and wire drawn products [3]. Summary by Sections Section 232 Overview - Section 232 was enacted in 2018, imposing a 25% tariff on all steel imports and 10% on aluminum, with exemptions granted to Canada, Mexico, and Australia [2]. - In early June 2025, President Trump reinstated a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, removing all prior exemptions [2]. Trade Dynamics - In 2024, the US imported approximately 154,000 tons of rebar from Mexico but exported only about 4,000 tons, indicating a significant trade imbalance in this category [4]. - The US imported around 233,000 tons of wire rod from Mexico while exporting just 45,000 tons, further highlighting the trade dynamics [4]. Company Ratings - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF.N): Equal-weight rating as of February 15, 2024, with a price of US$8.02 [56]. - Commercial Metals Company (CMC.N): Equal-weight rating as of December 19, 2024, with a price of US$50.67 [56]. - Nucor Corp (NUE.N): Overweight rating as of August 14, 2024, with a price of US$124.68 [56]. - Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD.O): Overweight rating as of March 7, 2025, with a price of US$133.81 [56]. - US Steel (X.N): Equal-weight rating as of February 3, 2025, with a price of US$53.89 [56].

Group 1 - U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures down 0.43%, S&P 500 futures down 0.50%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.67% [1] - U.S. steel and aluminum stocks are rising ahead of market opening, following Trump's announcement to increase import tariffs on steel from 25% to 50%. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is up 25.56%, Nucor Corporation is up 8.69%, and Steel Dynamics Inc. is up 9.69% [1] - Moderna's new low-dose COVID-19 vaccine has been approved by the FDA, leading to a 4.74% increase in its stock price [1] Group 2 - Google plans to appeal a recent antitrust ruling that found it guilty of illegal monopoly in the advertising technology sector, resulting in a 0.9% drop in its stock [2] - Novartis reports strong results from clinical trials of its cancer drug Pluvicto for advanced prostate cancer patients [2] - Sanofi is set to acquire Blueprint Medicines for $9.1 billion, with Blueprint's stock rising 27.08% following the announcement [2] Group 3 - Apple has appealed against the EU's Digital Markets Act, which requires it to share user data with third-party developers, causing its stock to drop 0.76% [3] - Tesla's new car sales in Sweden fell by 53.7% year-over-year in May, with only 503 vehicles sold, leading to a 2.17% decline in its stock [3]