Stocks to watch as Trump's new tariffs spell more uncertainty | ReutersSkip to main content[Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionalsLearn more aboutRefinitiv]A trader works on the floor, as a screen displays U.S. President Donald Trump during a press briefing at the White House following the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs, at the New York Stock... [Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab] Read more- Companies[Alcoa Corp]Follow[Alibaba Group Holding Ltd]Follow[Best Buy Co Inc ...

The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ:VXUS) and the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEMKT:IEMG) both aim to provide diversified international equity exposure, but their approaches and underlying indexes set them apart. This comparison examines how each fund’s costs, returns, risk, and portfolio makeup may appeal to different investor objectives. Snapshot (cost & size) Metric VXUS IEMG Issuer Vanguard iShares Expense ratio 0.05% 0.09% 1-yr return (as of Feb. ...

do want to shift gears here though and move into talking about Chinese tech stocks and some opportunities in China. Welcome in our next guest, bring Sam back into the conversation. Joining us now, Henry Green, senior investment strategist at Crane Shares.Henry, great to have you with us. So, we've seen how this AI tech theme is playing out in US markets. How is it playing out in China. Is it similar. Is it different.What are you seeing. >> Sure. Uh, thanks for having me.Yeah, I think it is different than in ...

Market Overview - US equity futures are lower as traders assess the potential market impact of war with Iran and await significant US economic data including GDP and core PCE [1] - The S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% after trading positively overnight, with the "Magnificent Seven" stocks showing mixed performance [3] - Bond yields have reversed and are lower, while the USD remains flat; commodities show mixed results with base metals declining and precious metals, particularly gold, rallying above $5000 [1][11] Company Earnings and Stock Movements - Akamai Technologies (AKAM) shares fell 11% after a weaker-than-expected earnings outlook [3] - Ardelyx (ARDX) dropped 6% due to a softer sales forecast for its Ibsrela drug [3] - Copart (CPRT) fell 8% after reporting operating income that missed analyst estimates [3] - Floor & Decor (FND) rose 4% after exceeding earnings expectations for the fourth quarter [3] - Grail (GRAL) tumbled 47% after its cancer detection test failed to meet primary endpoints [3] - Harmonic (HLIT) increased by 9% due to strong book-to-bill ratios indicating growth potential [3] - Newmont (NEM) dropped 4% as it expects lower gold production this year [3] - Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) surged 19% after reporting better-than-expected revenue [3] - RingCentral (RNG) rose 10% after beating expectations and providing a positive forecast [3] - Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) increased by 4% as it anticipates positive sales growth [3] - Workiva Inc. (WK) gained 12% after reporting strong fourth-quarter results and optimistic forecasts [3] Economic Data and Inflation - Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data is expected to show an increase, which may influence interest rate decisions and the economic outlook [4] - Bloomberg Economics anticipates core inflation to accelerate, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32% in the core PCE deflator for December, raising the annual rate to 2.9% from 2.8% [4] - Wider inflation concerns are heightened by oil prices nearing a six-month high amid geopolitical tensions [5][6] Geopolitical Impact - The US military is deploying forces in the Middle East, with President Trump warning Iran of a limited strike if negotiations do not progress [6][35] - Geopolitical tensions have led to a cautious market sentiment, impacting stock performance and investor behavior [6][39]

Paul. I don't know what's going to happen this weekend, but I think anybody does. Maybe President Trump does.Geopolitics is dominating. The oil price is climbing. How big a risk to risk assets is this.Yeah. Good morning, Guy. Well, I was joking with my manager a while back, telling him, you know, we've got the risk of a collapse of the British monarchy. We've got on the brink of a war.We've got, you know, private markets under extreme pressure, possible threat of an alien invasion. You know, Asian index giv ...

In this articleWHDISFUNEXPEHTSLAIHG-GBHLTMARBKNGCQQQCMCSAGOOGL1698-HK9988-HK1179-HKBILI9626-HK700-HKThis report is from this week's CNBC's The China Connection newsletter, which brings you insights and analysis on what's driving the world's second-largest economy. You can subscribe here.The big storyThere's nothing quite like the holiday rush in China for the Lunar New Year. The Beijing city streets start emptying out several days in advance as the majority of residents return to their hometowns or travel e ...

Core Viewpoint - The Pentagon's potential listing of Chinese companies, including Alibaba and Baidu, raises significant implications for these firms and their industries, particularly concerning national security and investor sentiment [3][6][7]. Group 1: Pentagon's Actions and Implications - The Pentagon has not provided clarity on the withdrawal of a notice related to the listing of certain Chinese companies, which has left many questions unanswered [2][4]. - The administration's decision to proceed with these listings could have major implications for China's technology sector, particularly for leading companies like Alibaba and Baidu [3][6]. - The Pentagon previously warned lawmakers about the impending designation of these companies, accusing them of providing support to China's military, which is viewed as a national security risk [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Monitoring - The designation of companies like Tencent has previously led to significant declines in their stock prices, indicating potential market volatility if similar actions are taken against Alibaba and Baidu [4][6]. - The 1260 list does not impose legal repercussions but serves as a warning to investors, suggesting that these companies are under scrutiny and may face further sanctions from other government agencies [7]. - The reaction from the Chinese government is anticipated, as they have previously condemned similar actions by the U.S., indicating a potential for heightened tensions in the market [8].

Group 1 - Baidu plans to integrate the AI tool OpenClaw into its main smartphone app, allowing users to perform tasks like scheduling and organizing files directly through the app [1] - OpenClaw has gained popularity for its task automation capabilities, previously accessible only via chat apps like WhatsApp and Telegram [2] - Baidu reports 700 million monthly active users for its search app and is expanding OpenClaw's functionalities to its e-commerce and other services [3] Group 2 - The rollout of OpenClaw's capabilities coincides with the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, as Chinese tech companies aim to attract new users and monetize their AI investments [3]

Summary of China Internet Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The China Internet sector has had a lackluster start to 2026, with KWEB remaining flat year-to-date. AI advancements continue to influence investor preferences within the sector, particularly with Alibaba outperforming due to its Qwen agentic services, while Tencent has lagged behind [1][2]. Key Companies Discussed Tencent - Tencent's share price reflects investor concerns regarding its AI model and chatbot development. The company has shown solid returns on investment (ROI) from AI in its advertising and gaming sectors, trading at a projected 14-15x PE for 2027, indicating a favorable risk-reward scenario as earnings compound [3][8]. - Recent issues with the Yuanbao Party highlight challenges in AI development within WeChat, which faces higher quality standards compared to other platforms. Despite this, Tencent's advertising business remains robust, with strong growth in Video Accounts and digital ads [3][85]. - The company is perceived to be behind in AI model development, which has negatively impacted its valuation multiples. However, the potential for recovery exists as the company continues to innovate and improve its AI capabilities [57][59]. Alibaba - Alibaba's sentiment peaked during the launch of Qwen agentic services, which positions the company favorably in the domestic market. The use of red packet promotions to stimulate online shopping behavior is seen as a more logical strategy compared to incentivizing information retrieval [4][9]. - Concerns remain regarding Alibaba's ability to demonstrate that its AI initiatives can drive significant growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) and customer retention. The combination of a top-tier AI model, strong growth in Alicloud revenues (30-40%), and a solid GPU development program makes Alibaba an attractive investment [4][9]. - The regulatory environment remains a concern, with ongoing investigations into other companies in the sector contributing to cautious sentiment among investors [4][55]. AI and Chatbot Wars - The competition among major Chinese internet platforms, including Tencent, Alibaba, Bytedance, and Baidu, has intensified with the introduction of red packet promotions aimed at boosting AI chatbot adoption. This strategy indicates that AI capabilities alone are insufficient for consumer-facing applications [2][19]. - Recent data suggests that while user acquisition for AI chatbots has increased due to promotional efforts, daily engagement metrics have not shown significant improvement, raising questions about long-term user retention and behavior change [17][24]. - The effectiveness of cash incentives in driving user engagement with AI chatbots is debated, with comparisons drawn to past successes in online payment adoption [20][21]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape for the China Internet sector has shifted, with increased scrutiny and investigations affecting investor sentiment. The potential for stricter enforcement of e-commerce taxes and other regulations has raised concerns about future growth prospects [4][55]. - Despite these challenges, recent stock pullbacks may improve the risk-reward profile for investors in the sector, particularly for Tencent and Alibaba [56]. Investment Implications - Both Tencent and Alibaba present distinct investment opportunities, with Tencent focusing on steady earnings and AI ROI, while Alibaba emphasizes faster model development and long-term AI optionality. The current market environment favors companies that can demonstrate tangible AI success and consumer engagement [7][28]. - The ongoing debate among investors regarding the costs and benefits of AI investments will likely influence stock performance in the near term, with a shift towards favoring companies that can deliver visible earnings impacts [28][100].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global I/O Hardware** industry, particularly the **memory market** and its implications for **hyperscale capital expenditures (capex)** and **hardware margins** due to rising demand from AI applications and server requirements [2][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Memory Pricing Forecasts**: - UBS forecasts a **289% increase** in DRAM pricing per Gb from 2025 to 2027, surpassing the previous cycle's 89% rise [2][13]. - NAND pricing is expected to rise **144%**, exceeding the 92% rebound seen in 2024 [2][13]. 2. **Hyperscale Capex Growth**: - Hyperscale capex is projected to reach **US$827 billion** in 2026 and **US$915 billion** in 2027, reflecting increases of **43%** and **28%** respectively [3][27]. - Memory costs are estimated to add approximately **US$100 billion** annually to hyperscale capex, increasing from **US$53 billion** in 2025 to **US$155 billion** in 2026 and **US$252 billion** in 2027 [3][25]. 3. **Impact on PC and Smartphone Markets**: - PC unit forecasts for 2026 have been revised down from **267 million** to **255 million**, indicating a **4% decline** year-over-year [4]. - Smartphone unit sell-in estimates have also been reduced from **1.28 billion** to **1.20 billion**, reflecting a **5% decline** in 2026 [4]. 4. **Brand and ODM Margin Pressures**: - The rising memory costs are squeezing margins for brands and ODMs, with DRAM now accounting for **18%** of PC BOM costs and potentially **24%** for high-end smartphones by H226 [4][9]. - ODMs are forced to pass through memory costs, which boosts sales but does not enhance gross or operating profits, leading to lower margins [4][9]. 5. **Investment Preferences**: - Analysts recommend favoring AI hardware and components over traditional PC and branded companies due to the higher memory costs impacting margins [5]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Server Demand and Memory Costs**: - The demand for AI and traditional servers is strong, with server unit forecasts for 2025-26 revised up from **+6%** to **+13%** year-over-year [2][14]. - A typical data center server's memory cost is expected to rise from **46%** to **67%** of total server costs due to increased memory pricing [15]. 2. **Long-term Memory Cycle**: - The memory pricing cycle is described as the strongest in decades, with expectations of sustained under-supply into 2027 [10][13]. 3. **Capex and Cash Flow Dynamics**: - The capital intensity for internet companies is projected to rise from **10%** of capex/sales pre-AI to approximately **35%** in 2026, with a significant portion of capex financed through operating cash flow [28]. 4. **Future Outlook**: - The aggressive push for compute resources to meet growing cloud workloads and AI demands is expected to continue, although future growth rates may slow as spending becomes increasingly financed by debt and equity [28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the significant impact of memory pricing on the hardware industry and the strategic shifts in investment focus towards AI-related technologies.