Core Insights - The report from CitriniResearch outlines a hypothetical scenario where the rapid advancement of AI leads to a "Global Intelligence Crisis," characterized by a significant economic downturn despite technological progress [1][8] - The central thesis posits that if AI continues to exceed expectations but fails to generate income for the majority, it could result in a severe "intelligent deflation crisis" [1][4] Market Conditions - By October 2026, the S&P 500 reached nearly 8000 points, and the Nasdaq surpassed 30,000 points, driven by companies replacing human labor with AI, leading to soaring profits and stock prices [6][13] - The initial layoffs due to AI obsolescence were perceived as a normal adjustment, with widespread belief that AI would create new job opportunities despite the destruction of old ones [6][12] Economic Disruption - The report highlights a significant decline in "human intelligence premium," as AI made human intellect a surplus resource, undermining traditional economic structures like home loans and tax revenues [4][18] - The consumer economy, heavily reliant on white-collar workers, began to falter as these workers were displaced by AI, leading to a structural decline in spending and a spike in unemployment rates, which reached over 10% [11][18] Financial System Breakdown - The mortgage market, valued at $13 trillion, faced instability as high-income white-collar jobs were replaced, leading to a reassessment of prime mortgages and a decline in housing prices in major cities [18][19] - The interconnected nature of financial systems revealed vulnerabilities, as defaults began to emerge in sectors heavily reliant on white-collar productivity, challenging the assumptions of recurring revenue models [19][20] Consumer Behavior Changes - AI agents began to dominate consumer decision-making, leading to the collapse of traditional business models that relied on consumer inertia and friction, such as travel booking platforms and subscription services [32][55] - The average customer lifetime value in subscription economies declined as AI agents negotiated better deals, fundamentally altering the dynamics of consumer transactions [54][55] Implications for Investment - The report suggests that business models dependent on intermediaries and transaction fees may face permanent valuation adjustments as AI continues to optimize processes and eliminate costs [6][44] - Companies that were once resistant to technological disruption became aggressive adopters of AI, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of job cuts and increased investment in AI capabilities [27][28] Societal Considerations - The report raises critical questions about the future of wealth distribution in a scenario where AI generates significant economic output without human involvement, leading to potential societal challenges [6][8] - It emphasizes the need for a rethinking of economic systems to address the implications of "ghost GDP," where wealth generated by machines does not circulate through the human economy [18][19]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：君实财经） Circle (CRCL) 2025 年第四季度财报电话会议记录 日期 2026年2月25日星期三上午8点（美国东部时间）电话参与者 首席财务官 — 杰里米·福克斯-吉恩 投资者关系副总裁——约翰·安德鲁斯要点 USDC 流通量——截至期末为 753 亿美元，同比增长 72%，其中平台内 USDC 增长 5.6 倍至 125 亿美 元，占总流通量的 17%。 链上交易量——本季度接近 12 万亿美元，同比增长 247%，表明数字美元的实用性和普及程度不断提 高。 总收入和储备金收入——7.7亿美元，同比增长77%，主要得益于美国存款账户增长和其他收入组成部 分。 调整后 EBITDA为 1.67 亿美元，同比增长 412%，调整后 EBITDA 利润率为 54%。 扣除分销成本后的收入利润率 (RLDC)为 40.1%，本季度环比增长 0.6 个百分点，主要原因是其他收入 增加。 分销、交易和其他成本——4.61亿美元，同比增长52%，其中包括上一年向一家大型合作伙伴支付的 6000万美元一次性款项。 其他收入——3700万美元，其中包括来自区块链网络合作的2470万美元和 ...

Company Overview - LawFairy has announced a strategic focus on immigration, enhancing its technology-delivered legal services based on deterministic, explainable legal logic [1] - The company aims to address the complexities and risks associated with immigration law through its innovative platform [2] Immigration Law Challenges - Immigration law is characterized as one of the most complex and high-risk regulatory domains, often relying on fragmented guidance and outdated tools [2] - LawFairy's platform is designed to overcome these challenges by providing Trusted Legal Intelligence rather than probabilistic AI [2] Technology and Approach - The platform utilizes a deterministic, rule-based system that applies verified immigration rules, ensuring transparent and defensible decision pathways [3] - LawFairy emphasizes the importance of accountability in immigration decisions, stating that outcomes must be provable [3] Adaptability to Legal Changes - The announcement comes amid significant changes in UK immigration law, highlighting the limitations of generic AI systems in rule-dense areas [4] - LawFairy's platform is built to be updated deterministically as laws change, maintaining compliance and explainability [4] Integrated Immigration Infrastructure - LawFairy's immigration offering is an integrated platform that covers various stages of the immigration process [5] - The platform is powered by FairyLogic™, a proprietary legal intelligence engine that applies codified legal rules [5] Company Mission - LawFairy aims to support complex legal and compliance decision-making through structured, explainable systems [6] - The technology is designed to embed legal expertise into clear workflows, enhancing access to justice and delivering defensible outcomes at scale [6] Recent Changes in Immigration Law - Significant changes include the doubling of baseline settlement periods from 5 to 10 years, a 32% increase in salary thresholds, and structural changes to SOC codes affecting Skilled Worker eligibility [7]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源|New Economist微信公众号 《2028年全球智力危机》 编者按：研究机构Citrini Research近期发布了一份关于人工智能经济风险的假设性报告，引发了市场广 泛关注和讨论。报告原标题为《2028全球智能危机——来自未来的金融史思想实验》（THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS： A Thought Exercise in Financial History， from the Future），该报告 明确声明其唯一目的是模拟一个相对未被充分研究的情景，是一个"思想实验"而非预测。 报告设定了一个假想的时间点——2028年6月，并描绘了人工智能（AI）快速发展可能引发的连锁经济 危机。报告提出了几个核心概念： "AI效率悖论"：AI的成功可能导致经济不稳定。其推演的核心风险链条包括：白领大规模失业：AI替 代复杂白领劳动，导致"智能溢价"消失，中产阶层收入结构受损。 "幽灵GDP"与消费萎缩：即企业利润因AI增效而增长，但被替代的劳动力消费能力下降，货币流通速度 放缓，形成"产出增长 ...

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard. Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences. At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000 ...

分享 reface 前⾔ at if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish? 果我们的对 AI 的乐观持续正确……而这反而成了利空，会怎样？ at follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn't bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. e sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that's been relatively underexplored. Our nd Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer. We wrote this t, and he's written two others you can find here. 下情景为设想，而非预测。这并非唱空轰动或人工智能末日主义同人文。本文唯一 的，是对一个相对较少被探讨的情景进行建模。我 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of Citrini Research's post is that AI agents could potentially disrupt traditional payment networks by rerouting transactions to stablecoin systems, which may eliminate interchange fees [2] - Following the release of this scenario, major companies in the payment processing sector, including Mastercard, Visa, and American Express, experienced stock declines ranging from 4% to 6% [3] - The analysis emphasizes that issuers, rather than payment networks, are the more vulnerable entities in this scenario, as the majority of interchange fees are collected by issuers and intermediaries [4] Group 2 - The economic rationale behind the shift towards stablecoins is that AI agents will prioritize cost efficiency, leading to a preference for cheaper transaction methods, which could significantly impact traditional interchange fees [5] - The transition towards software-controlled transactions is expected to reshape transaction economics, as companies explore stablecoins and alternative payment rails to achieve cost savings, particularly in low-margin sectors [6]

Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) is consolidating or trading sideways on Wednesday. But it may soon go into a new uptrend.As you can see on the chart, Visa is at a very well-defined support level. Some stocks head higher after they stop falling at support levels. This is why it is our Stock of the Day.Support is a price, or price range, in a market where there is a large amount of buy interest. It could be from institutional traders and investors or retail traders and investors. It is impossible to know, but the good thi ...

Key Takeaways Visa runs a massive global network, with cross-border volume up 11% in Q1 FY26.Affirm posted 36.6% GMV growth and 30% revenue rise in Q2 FY26, boosting engagement.AFRM's price target implies 67.8% upside, topping V's 25.4% upside.Digital payments are on the rise around the world as both consumers and businesses are embracing card-based, real-time and embedded finance solutions. In this changing landscape, factors like scale, network reach, credit exposure and monetization models play a bigger ...

2028 年全球情报危机 --- THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS substack.com/home/post/p-188821754 Substack Preface 序言 What if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish? 倘若我们对人工智能的乐观情绪持续正确 …… 而这种 " 正确 " 本身反而预示着悲观前景，又当如 何？ What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn't bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that's been relatively underexplored. Our friend Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer ...