Key Takeaways PCE Numbers for August Were Mostly In-Line with EstimatesThough Inflation Is Still Present in PCE Data, It's Not Out of ControlPre-Market Traders Love This Report, but Don't Expect Big Rate Cuts from the FedFriday, September 26, 2025Ahead of today’s open, pre-market futures are climbing higher on mostly expected results from August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) this morning. The Dow is currently up +225 points, the S&P 500 +28 and the Nasdaq +105 points. Even the small-cap Russell 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD is facing downward pressure, hovering around the 1.3470 area, amid a mild recovery in dollar buying interest, with the July PCE inflation data aligning with market expectations, opening the door for a potential Fed rate cut in September [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is slightly below 50, indicating a weakening bullish momentum as GBP/USD falls below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 1.3490 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.3460-1.3440 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 100-day and 200-day moving averages) and 1.3400-1.3390 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) [3]. - Resistance levels are seen at 1.3490-1.3500 (100-day moving average, static level), 1.3540 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), and 1.3600 (static level, round number) [3]. Economic Overview - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the Q2 GDP annualized growth rate to 3.3%, lower than the initial estimate of 3% and market expectations of 3.1% [5]. - Initial jobless claims decreased from 234,000 to 229,000, slightly better than the market expectation of 230,000 [5]. - The upcoming PCE price index data for July is anticipated to show an overall annual inflation rate stabilizing at 2.6%, with core PCE expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month [5].

美国二季度个人消费支出(PCE)年化季环比初值1.4%，预期1.5%，前值0.5%。 ...

美国二季度个人消费支出(PCE)年化季环比初值 1.4%，预期 1.5%，前值 0.5%。 ...

Core Insights - In May, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the United States decreased by 0.1% month-over-month, which was below the expected increase of 0.1% and a decline from the previous value of 0.2% [1] Economic Indicators - The PCE figure indicates a contraction in consumer spending, which may have implications for economic growth and inflation trends [1] - The deviation from expectations suggests potential shifts in consumer behavior and economic sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The final annualized quarter-on-quarter Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for the first quarter in the U.S. is reported at 0.5%, which is below the expected 1.2% and the initial estimate of 1.2% [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Economic Indicators** - The final PCE figure indicates a slowdown in consumer spending growth compared to expectations and initial estimates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed a significant slowdown in April, indicating increased economic uncertainty and a shift towards saving among households [1] Economic Data Summary - In April, U.S. PCE increased by 0.2% month-over-month, a decrease from 0.7% in March [1] - The PCE price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the PCE price index increased by 2.1%, and the core PCE price index rose by 2.5%, both slightly above the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2% [1] Consumer Sentiment Analysis - The latest data reflects potential anxiety among U.S. consumers regarding the economy, with the previous quarter showing the weakest consumption spending in nearly two years [1] - Despite the increase in tariffs on imported goods not yet being fully reflected in rising prices, consumer confidence has declined, and expectations for personal financial prospects have reached historical lows [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The PCE price index is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, influencing its monetary policy decisions and thus attracting significant market attention [1]

Core Insights - The annualized quarter-on-quarter revision of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the U.S. for Q1 is 1.2%, which is below the expected 1.7% and the initial value of 1.8% [1] Economic Indicators - The revised PCE figure indicates a slowdown in consumer spending growth compared to previous expectations [1] - The difference between the revised figure and the initial estimate suggests potential adjustments in economic forecasts and consumer behavior analysis [1]

我们发现，在这些PCE（个人消费支出）分类项目中，预测关税效应与超额通胀之间存在显著向上的 斜率关系，其置信水平达到99%。 值得注意的是，我们还发现证据表明截距为负值，这意味着未受关税政策显著影响的PCE分类项目， 其通胀水平低于2000-2017年期间的典型值。 美联储最新研究发现，实时关税效应刺痛消费者钱包，预计2025年核心通胀率上升0.1%。 5月9日美联储发布报告，最新研究了一种实时检测关税对消费者价格影响的方法，证实关税变化会快速直接传导 至价格水平。研究发现2018-19年的关税变化在两个月内完全传导到消费品价格，而2025年初的关税已导致核心商 品PCE价格上涨0.33个百分点，推动核心PCE整体上涨0.08个百分点。 研究中使用了事件研究法分析特定关税事件的消费者价格传导情况，以及局部投影法共同分析多个关税事件的传 导情况。数据来源包括美国经济分析局(BEA)的月度PCE价格数据、投入产出表和PCE桥接数据，这使研究能够计 算每个PCE类别中进口的直接和间接影响。 值得注意的是，研报中强调该分析方法仅涉及美国对其他国家征收关税对消费者价格的影响，并未考虑报复性关 税的影响，也未考虑关税对其 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for March increased by 0.7%, surpassing the expected increase of 0.6% and the previous value of 0.4% [1]