Core Insights - In May, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the United States decreased by 0.1% month-over-month, which was below the expected increase of 0.1% and a decline from the previous value of 0.2% [1] Economic Indicators - The PCE figure indicates a contraction in consumer spending, which may have implications for economic growth and inflation trends [1] - The deviation from expectations suggests potential shifts in consumer behavior and economic sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The final annualized quarter-on-quarter Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for the first quarter in the U.S. is reported at 0.5%, which is below the expected 1.2% and the initial estimate of 1.2% [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Economic Indicators** - The final PCE figure indicates a slowdown in consumer spending growth compared to expectations and initial estimates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed a significant slowdown in April, indicating increased economic uncertainty and a shift towards saving among households [1] Economic Data Summary - In April, U.S. PCE increased by 0.2% month-over-month, a decrease from 0.7% in March [1] - The PCE price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the PCE price index increased by 2.1%, and the core PCE price index rose by 2.5%, both slightly above the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2% [1] Consumer Sentiment Analysis - The latest data reflects potential anxiety among U.S. consumers regarding the economy, with the previous quarter showing the weakest consumption spending in nearly two years [1] - Despite the increase in tariffs on imported goods not yet being fully reflected in rising prices, consumer confidence has declined, and expectations for personal financial prospects have reached historical lows [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The PCE price index is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, influencing its monetary policy decisions and thus attracting significant market attention [1]

Core Insights - The annualized quarter-on-quarter revision of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the U.S. for Q1 is 1.2%, which is below the expected 1.7% and the initial value of 1.8% [1] Economic Indicators - The revised PCE figure indicates a slowdown in consumer spending growth compared to previous expectations [1] - The difference between the revised figure and the initial estimate suggests potential adjustments in economic forecasts and consumer behavior analysis [1]

我们发现，在这些PCE（个人消费支出）分类项目中，预测关税效应与超额通胀之间存在显著向上的 斜率关系，其置信水平达到99%。 值得注意的是，我们还发现证据表明截距为负值，这意味着未受关税政策显著影响的PCE分类项目， 其通胀水平低于2000-2017年期间的典型值。 美联储最新研究发现，实时关税效应刺痛消费者钱包，预计2025年核心通胀率上升0.1%。 5月9日美联储发布报告，最新研究了一种实时检测关税对消费者价格影响的方法，证实关税变化会快速直接传导 至价格水平。研究发现2018-19年的关税变化在两个月内完全传导到消费品价格，而2025年初的关税已导致核心商 品PCE价格上涨0.33个百分点，推动核心PCE整体上涨0.08个百分点。 研究中使用了事件研究法分析特定关税事件的消费者价格传导情况，以及局部投影法共同分析多个关税事件的传 导情况。数据来源包括美国经济分析局(BEA)的月度PCE价格数据、投入产出表和PCE桥接数据，这使研究能够计 算每个PCE类别中进口的直接和间接影响。 值得注意的是，研报中强调该分析方法仅涉及美国对其他国家征收关税对消费者价格的影响，并未考虑报复性关 税的影响，也未考虑关税对其 ...

美国3月个人消费支出(PCE)环比 0.7%，预期 0.6%，前值 0.4%。 ...

美国一季度个人消费支出(PCE)年化季环比初值 1.8%，预期 1.2%，前值 4%。 ...