美国经济分析局当地时间7月31日公布的数据显示，美国衡量通胀的指标——个人消费支出(PCE)价 格指数于6月份环比上升0.3%，排除食品和能源价格影响后，核心PCE价格指数环比上升0.3%。(央视记 者 吴汉婴) ...

智通财经7月31日电，美国6月核心PCE价格指数同比上涨2.8%，市场预期值为增长2.7%。美国6月核心 PCE价格指数环比上升0.3%，预估上升0.3%。 美国6月核心PCE价格指数同比上涨2.8% 高于市场预期 ...

报告警告，这种贸易数据的剧烈波动掩盖了更深层次的经济放缓趋势。消费增长已从2024年的强劲水平明显减弱，住宅和商业投资也表现疲软，显示家庭 和企业支出正在同时降温。 贸易波动掩盖经济实质放缓 大摩指出，二季度3.0%的GDP增长表面上看似强劲，但这一数据被贸易流动的异常波动严重扭曲。进口在第一季度因关税预期而激增37.9%后，第二季度 急剧回落30.3%，净贸易为GDP贡献了5.0个百分点的增长。 美国二季度GDP表面增长亮眼，但深入分析显示这种繁荣具有欺骗性。进口量的大幅萎缩人为地抬高了整体数据，掩盖了国内需求明显放缓的事实。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利最新报告指出，美国二季度GDP环比折年率增长3.0%，超出市场预期的2.5%，但这一数据因贸易因素被严重扭曲。实际进口 在第二季度骤降30.3%，这在很大程度上抵消了一季度37.9%的激增，人为提振了GDP整体数据。 作为反映经济内生动力的核心指标，国内私人最终采购增速已从前一年的2.7%骤降至1.2%，表明美国经济内部已经显现冷却迹象。 "关注最终国内销售数据，可以看出经济活动正在放缓，"摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen指出，"第二季度最 ...

Core Insights - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the U.S. increased by 0.1% month-over-month in May, indicating a slight rise in inflation [1] - The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-over-month, suggesting underlying inflation pressures [1] - The PCE price index is a key inflation measure closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy decisions, highlighting its significance in the economic landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed a significant slowdown in April, indicating increased economic uncertainty and a shift towards saving among households [1] Economic Data Summary - In April, U.S. PCE increased by 0.2% month-over-month, a decrease from 0.7% in March [1] - The PCE price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the PCE price index increased by 2.1%, and the core PCE price index rose by 2.5%, both slightly above the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2% [1] Consumer Sentiment Analysis - The latest data reflects potential anxiety among U.S. consumers regarding the economy, with the previous quarter showing the weakest consumption spending in nearly two years [1] - Despite the increase in tariffs on imported goods not yet being fully reflected in rising prices, consumer confidence has declined, and expectations for personal financial prospects have reached historical lows [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The PCE price index is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, influencing its monetary policy decisions and thus attracting significant market attention [1]

Core Insights - In April 2025, personal income in the U.S. increased by $210.1 billion, representing a month-over-month growth of 0.8% [1][4] - Disposable personal income (DPI) also rose by $189.4 billion, reflecting a 0.8% increase, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) saw a smaller increase of $47.8 billion, or 0.2% [1][4] - The total personal expenditures, which include PCE, personal interest payments, and current transfer payments, increased by $48.6 billion in April [1] Personal Savings and Rates - Personal savings in April amounted to $1.12 trillion, with a personal savings rate of 4.9%, indicating the percentage of DPI that is saved [3] - The increase in personal income was primarily driven by government social welfare and wage increases [3][7] Consumer Spending Trends - Service expenditures rose by $55.8 billion, partially offsetting a $8 billion decrease in goods spending [3] - The PCE price index increased by 0.1% in April, with the core PCE price index also rising by 0.1% [7] - Year-over-year, the PCE price index increased by 2.1%, while the core PCE price index rose by 2.5% [7] Economic Outlook - Economists suggest that aggressive trade policies by the U.S. government may significantly hinder economic growth and elevate inflation [7] - Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will lower the target interest rate for short-term borrowing in September, with another potential cut in December [7]