Group 1 - Iran's internet infrastructure faced international connectivity issues, leading to widespread service disruptions among internet service providers [1] - Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei made his first public appearance since the 12-day conflict with Israel, which began on June 13 and involved significant casualties and damage [2] - A ceasefire agreement was reached between Iran and Israel on June 24, following multiple missile and drone attacks from Iran in response to Israeli airstrikes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent conflict between Iran and Israel, highlighting the significant military actions taken by both sides and the subsequent ceasefire agreement reached after 12 days of hostilities [1]. Group 1: Conflict Overview - On June 13, Israel launched a large-scale airstrike against Iran, resulting in numerous casualties, including high-ranking commanders and nuclear scientists [1]. - In retaliation, Iran conducted multiple missile and drone attacks against Israel [1]. - A ceasefire agreement was reached on June 24, concluding the 12-day conflict [1]. Group 2: Key Figures - The conflict began with Israel's airstrikes on June 13 and lasted until the ceasefire on June 24, indicating a period of heightened military engagement [1]. - The article notes the significant impact of the conflict on personnel and infrastructure, although specific figures on casualties and damages are not provided [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran dominated the rise and fall of crude oil prices. After the geopolitical conflict cooled down, the trading of polyolefins returned to the fundamental logic. The profit of oil - based and PDH - based production was restored. In June, the production capacity of polyolefins faced great pressure, but the pressure on polyethylene production capacity in the second half of the year was greatly relieved, while PP continued to be under pressure. It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the downstream operating rate fluctuated at a low level. The market was waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase, and the crude oil price fluctuated at a low level. The United States imposed a 40% tariff on Vietnamese re - exports, which might hinder China's PP exports. It was expected that the LLDPE - PP price spread would continue to fluctuate and strengthen from July [2][16]. - The recommended strategy was to buy the LLDPE - PP price spread at low levels [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: The market was waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase, and crude oil prices fluctuated at a low level. The overall profit of polyolefins decreased, with upstream inventory reduction and mid - stream trader inventory accumulation [16]. - Cost: WTI crude oil rose 6.37% this month, Brent crude oil rose 5.30%, coal price fell - 1.69%, methanol rose 7.64%, ethylene rose 14.46%, propylene rose 3.83%, and propane fell - 4.20%. The oil price rose and then fell, having a significant impact on the cost side, and the cost side's influence on the trading logic of the futures market increased this month [16]. - Supply: The PE capacity utilization rate was 78.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%, a year - on - year increase of 0.72%, and an increase of 0.42% compared with the five - year average. The PP capacity utilization rate was 77.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.05%, a year - on - year increase of 6.37%, and a decrease of - 14.75% compared with the five - year average. The production pressure in the second quarter was large, with production capacity put into operation in June and no new capacity in July [16]. - Import and Export: In May, domestic PE imports were 1.0682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 15.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.84%. PP imports were 167,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 12.60% and a year - on - year decrease of - 12.60%. Exports decreased in the off - peak season. In May, PE exports were 105,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.67% and a year - on - year increase of 40.53%. PP exports were 276,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.33% and a year - on - year increase of 35.89%. The increase of the Vietnamese re - export tariff to the United States to 40% might hinder China's PP exports [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE was 38%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.91% and a year - on - year decrease of - 7.20%. The downstream operating rate of PP was 48.80%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.42% and a year - on - year decrease of - 1.63%. It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the overall operating rate was lower than that of the previous year [16]. - Inventory: PE production enterprises' inventory was 438,400 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 15.32% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 5.46%. PE traders' inventory was 61,400 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 5.27% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 7.19%. PP production enterprises' inventory was 570,100 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 5.78% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 10.70%. PP traders' inventory was 149,700 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 1.42% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 1.12%. PP port inventory was 65,300 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 1.66% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 4.95% [16]. - Next Month's Forecast: The reference fluctuation range for polyethylene (L2509) was (7000 - 7300), and for polypropylene (PP2509) was (6900 - 7200) [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy the LLDPE - PP price spread at low levels [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts were provided to show the term structure, main contract price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, registered warehouse receipts, and price differences of LLDPE and PP, as well as the price differences between LLDPE and PP, and the import and export volume of PE and PP [32][46][66][68]. 3. Cost Side - The cost side was affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices. The prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane all changed. The profitability of different production methods of PE and PP, such as oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based, was also analyzed. Additionally, the price, supply, demand, inventory, and import and export situation of LPG were studied [16][77][103]. 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - The proportion of raw materials for PE production was presented. The production capacity, production capacity utilization rate, and production capacity expansion plan of PE were also analyzed. In 2025, 3.53 million tons of PE production capacity had been put into operation, and 1.5 million tons were yet to be put into operation [138][144]. 5. Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - The inventory situation of PE production enterprises and traders was analyzed, including month - on - month and year - on - year changes. The import and export volume of PE was also provided, along with the predicted import volume in June [16][17]. 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the downstream operating rate of PE was low, with a month - on - month and year - on - year decline. It was expected that the downstream operating rate in July would continue to decline seasonally [16][17]. 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - The production capacity utilization rate of PP was analyzed. In the second quarter, the production pressure was large, and there was no new production capacity in July [16]. 8. Polypropylene Inventory & Import and Export - The inventory situation of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports was analyzed, including month - on - month and year - on - year changes. The export volume of PP was provided, and it was predicted that the export volume in June would be about 230,000 tons. The increase of the Vietnamese re - export tariff to the United States to 40% might hinder China's PP exports [16][17]. 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the downstream operating rate of PP was low, with a month - on - month and year - on - year decline. It was expected that the downstream operating rate in July would continue to decline seasonally [16][17].

Group 1 - The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticized certain European countries for taking a "destructive stance" in the conflict between Iran and Israel, supporting Israel and the United States [1] - Araghchi expressed his protest during a phone call with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, accusing some European nations of bias in the Iran-Israel conflict, although he did not specify which countries [1] - EU representative Borrell urged Iran to quickly resume nuclear negotiations and restore cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, indicating that the EU is willing to facilitate this process [1]

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - The Israeli military issued evacuation warnings for certain areas in northern Gaza [1] - Israel claims to have arrested over 60 Hamas members in the largest operation in the West Bank [1] - According to the media office in Gaza, 580 people have died while receiving food aid at a "US-Israel" assistance center, with the ongoing conflict resulting in 56,500 deaths in Gaza [1] Group 2: Iran-Israel Conflict - Israel's oil refinery is expected to fully resume operations by October 2025 [2] - The flight suspension in northern, southern, and western Iran has been extended until June 30 at 14:00 [2] - Iranian military chief Mousavi expressed strong doubts about Israel's commitment to a ceasefire [2] - Former US President Trump stated that three Iranian nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed, and if Iran can achieve peace, sanctions will be lifted [2] Group 3: Other Developments - The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi, indicated that Iran could still produce enriched uranium within months [3] - The Saudi Defense Minister and the Iranian military chief discussed regional developments and efforts to maintain security and stability [3] - An Israeli court agreed to Prime Minister Netanyahu's request to postpone a hearing [3] - The Israeli Defense Forces reported multiple recent airstrikes in Syria [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent large-scale funeral held in Tehran for over 60 Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists who were killed in the recent Israel-Iran conflict, highlighting the significant impact of these events on regional stability and military dynamics [1][4]. Group 1 - A grand funeral was held in Tehran for over 60 high-ranking Iranian officials, including former military leaders and nuclear scientists, who died in the recent conflict with Israel [1][4]. - The funeral was attended by thousands of mourners, including government officials and family members of the deceased, demonstrating the public's emotional response and the political significance of the event [1][3]. - The funeral procession began at the "Revolution Square" and concluded at the iconic Azadi Tower, symbolizing national mourning and solidarity [1][3]. Group 2 - The conflict escalated on June 13, when Israel launched extensive airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites, resulting in the deaths of several key military figures [4]. - Among the deceased were prominent military leaders such as former Chief of Staff Bagheri and former IRGC Commander Salami, indicating a significant loss for Iran's military leadership [4]. - The article also mentions the involvement of Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to the Supreme Leader, who was reportedly injured in the attacks but later denied rumors of his death [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses the missile attack by Iran on the US military base in Qatar, which was described as a response to US actions against Iranian nuclear facilities [2] - Iran's military stated that the number of missiles used in the attack matched the number of bombs used by the US in their previous strikes on Iranian nuclear sites [2] - The US military base in Qatar, Al Udeid Air Base, is noted as the largest US military base in the Middle East [3] Group 2 - President Trump claimed that Iran warned the US before launching the missile attack, stating that all 14 missiles were intercepted successfully [1] - Trump expressed confidence that the military conflict between Israel and Iran had ended, but also acknowledged the possibility of future escalations [1] - Trump denied any movement of materials from Iranian nuclear facilities, asserting that the equipment was too heavy and dangerous to relocate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market rose rapidly yesterday, with the Wind All A index up 1.56% and a trading volume of 1.45 trillion yuan. The conflict between Iran and Israel has limited direct impact on the A-share market. Given the current credit contraction and insufficient demand, the index is unlikely to break through the central level and rise significantly. However, with the improvement in corporate earnings in H1 2025 compared to 2024 and the support of allocation funds, the A-share index will not experience a sharp decline in the short term. It is expected that the index will mainly fluctuate in the future [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27%, the 10-year main contract down 0.11%, the 5-year main contract down 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02%. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2092 billion yuan. The bond market lacks the momentum to strengthen significantly and is likely to remain in a range-bound pattern [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a significant upward trend, with multiple sectors rising. The conflict between Iran and Israel had limited direct impact on the A-share market. The domestic economy faces challenges such as credit contraction and insufficient demand, but corporate earnings have improved, leading to an expected volatile trend for the index [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank's open market operations led to a slight tightening of the capital market. Given the economic resilience and the approaching half-year end, the bond market is likely to remain range-bound [1][2]. Price Changes in Futures Contracts - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 24, 2025, IH rose 1.10%, IF rose 1.45%, IC rose 1.79%, and IM rose 2.46% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.16%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.20%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.62%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.03%, TF fell 0.08%, T fell 0.12%, and TL fell 0.30% [3]. Market News - An event to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War will be held on September 3, including a military parade, and President Xi Jinping will deliver an important speech [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, providing a visual reference for the performance of stock index futures [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, helping to analyze the treasury bond futures market [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and other currency pairs, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, offering insights into the foreign exchange market [20][21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, questioning whether the announced ceasefire has truly been effective or if hostilities continue despite the declaration [1] Group 1 - The ceasefire was officially announced, yet reports indicate that fighting has persisted in certain areas [1] - The situation remains fluid, with both sides potentially engaging in military actions despite the ceasefire agreement [1] - The implications of continued conflict could affect regional stability and international relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Israel is reopening its airspace and resuming some commercial flights to facilitate the return of citizens from abroad, following a period of closure due to ongoing conflict [1][2]. Group 1 - Israel's civil aviation authority announced the reopening of airspace starting from June 22 at 14:00 local time [1]. - The decision to reopen comes after a sustained period of closed airspace due to the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict [2].