1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to remain volatile. The short - term may bring incremental funds to the market, but the long - term effect remains to be seen. The index is difficult to break through the central level and rise significantly, and it will not fall sharply in the short term either [1]. - The bond market will continue its oscillating pattern. With the GDP maintaining over 5% for three consecutive quarters and the economy showing characteristics of strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, slow investment, and weak real estate, the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: The A - share market generally rose yesterday. The weekend's start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River drove up the infrastructure sector. June's economic and financial data showed mixed results. The central government aims to stimulate economic recovery through investment, which may bring short - term incremental funds. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed, and the index's fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Currently, credit contraction and insufficient demand are the main contradictions, so the index is unlikely to rise sharply, nor will it fall significantly in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and there was a net withdrawal of funds. Economic data indicates that the economy has strong resilience, and the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the bond market will continue to oscillate [3]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.15%, IF rose 0.57%, IC rose 0.91%, and IM rose 0.77% from July 18th to July 21st [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.28%, the CSI 300 rose 0.67%, the CSI 500 rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.92% from July 18th to July 21st [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.03%, T fell 0.03%, and TL fell 0.41% from July 18th to July 21st [4]. 3.3 Market News - The 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was reported at 3.5%, remaining unchanged from the previous values [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts [7][8][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [22][23][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A-share market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The index fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and there is support from allocation funds, the index is difficult to break through the central level and rise significantly due to credit contraction and insufficient demand under the background of debt resolution. On the other hand, it will not experience a sharp decline in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in an environment with loose funds, stable economy, and low short-term interest rate cut expectations. With insufficient upward and downward momentum, it is expected to continue the fluctuating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On July 9, 2025, the A-share market fluctuated and closed down. The Wind All A index fell 0.18% with a trading volume of 1.53 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also declined. The media sector led the rise, while the non-ferrous metals sector corrected. The recent Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the construction of a unified national market, but the impact on related themes depends on the transfer mode and scale of central fiscal incremental policies. Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slowed down, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened. The fundamentals of the index depend on the domestic economic recovery process, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 9, 2025, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 230 billion yuan. The overall capital situation was loose, and the price index remained stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, compared with the previous day, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of -0.14%, -0.15%, -0.47%, and -0.35% respectively [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices also declined, with declines of -0.26%, -0.18%, -0.41%, and -0.27% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all rose, with increases of 0.00%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.14% respectively [3]. 3.3 Market News - From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. The average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 86.4%, and the average contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth reached 56.2%, 8.6 percentage points higher than that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trend charts of the main contracts and the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trend charts of the main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of other currency pairs [20][21][22]

Group 1: U.S. Treasury and Gold Outlook - U.S. Treasuries have lost their value storage function, with gold set to replace them as the primary global currency [1] - The report predicts that the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield will have a lower bound of 4.35%, with a target yield of 4.9%-5.2% by 2025, suggesting avoidance of Treasuries [1][39] - The target price for gold is set at $3,500 per ounce, with a potential rise to $4,400 per ounce if gold's market value matches that of U.S. Treasuries [1][70] Group 2: Long-term Bull Market in U.S. Stocks - The long-term bull market in U.S. stocks is driven by monetary factors, including a persistent capital account surplus due to the U.S. current account deficit [2] - U.S. companies have been in a long-term net buyback state since the 1980s, reducing the supply of stocks and contributing to rising prices [2] - Fiscal expansion leads to more government orders, higher inflation, and increased profit margins, benefiting U.S. stocks [2] Group 3: Short-term Economic Risks - The report highlights risks to short-term economic growth, with tariffs impacting consumer purchasing power and a decline in consumer credit indicating potential recession [3] - The target price for the S&P 500 is estimated to be between 4,300 and 5,600 points by the second half of 2025, leading to a downgrade of the investment rating for U.S. stocks to "underperform" [3][48] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Sector Selection - The report suggests focusing on quality factors and defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples during the upcoming risk-off phase [4] - For bottom-fishing opportunities, the report recommends sectors like Philadelphia Semiconductor, Nasdaq 100, and small-cap growth stocks [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market rose rapidly yesterday, with the Wind All A index up 1.56% and a trading volume of 1.45 trillion yuan. The conflict between Iran and Israel has limited direct impact on the A-share market. Given the current credit contraction and insufficient demand, the index is unlikely to break through the central level and rise significantly. However, with the improvement in corporate earnings in H1 2025 compared to 2024 and the support of allocation funds, the A-share index will not experience a sharp decline in the short term. It is expected that the index will mainly fluctuate in the future [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27%, the 10-year main contract down 0.11%, the 5-year main contract down 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02%. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2092 billion yuan. The bond market lacks the momentum to strengthen significantly and is likely to remain in a range-bound pattern [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a significant upward trend, with multiple sectors rising. The conflict between Iran and Israel had limited direct impact on the A-share market. The domestic economy faces challenges such as credit contraction and insufficient demand, but corporate earnings have improved, leading to an expected volatile trend for the index [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank's open market operations led to a slight tightening of the capital market. Given the economic resilience and the approaching half-year end, the bond market is likely to remain range-bound [1][2]. Price Changes in Futures Contracts - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 24, 2025, IH rose 1.10%, IF rose 1.45%, IC rose 1.79%, and IM rose 2.46% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.16%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.20%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.62%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.03%, TF fell 0.08%, T fell 0.12%, and TL fell 0.30% [3]. Market News - An event to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War will be held on September 3, including a military parade, and President Xi Jinping will deliver an important speech [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, providing a visual reference for the performance of stock index futures [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, helping to analyze the treasury bond futures market [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and other currency pairs, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, offering insights into the foreign exchange market [20][21][22].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to fluctuate. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, but the correlation with China's capital market is lower than in 2022. The recent weakness in the index is due to selling pressure after the rally in early June. Although the current economic situation shows credit contraction and insufficient demand, the improvement in corporate earnings in the first half of 2025 and the support of allocation funds will prevent the A-share index from falling sharply [1]. - The bond market is also expected to fluctuate. The central bank's open market operations have maintained a loose liquidity situation, which has slightly strengthened the bond market in June. However, the strong economic resilience driven by policies and the "front-loading exports" effect mean that the bond market lacks the momentum to rise significantly, and the volatile pattern is difficult to change in the short term [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index**: The index is expected to fluctuate. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have increased uncertainty, but the impact on the A-share market is limited. The recent weakness is due to short-term selling pressure, and the long - term trend is affected by economic fundamentals such as PPI decline and credit contraction, as well as the improvement in corporate earnings [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate. The central bank's open - market operations maintain loose liquidity, but the strong economic resilience restricts the upward movement of bond prices [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined, with decreases of 0.68%, 0.82%, 1.05%, and 1.21% respectively [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, with decreases of 0.54%, 0.82%, 1.20%, and 1.42% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.16%, while the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.02% and 0.01% respectively, and the 10 - year main contract remained stable [1][3]. 3. Market News - On June 19, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that it opposes any actions that violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and the use or threat of force in international relations. It called on major powers to promote cease - fires and return to dialogue [5]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The document provides trend charts of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trend charts of each index futures [7][8][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The document provides trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The document provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - exchange rates such as euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [21][22][23]