1、防守优良：在2018年、2022年、2023年的弱势行情中跌幅同类最小，尤其是2023年优势显著； 2、进攻有力：在2024年，中证军工同类收益排名第一。而2019、2020年的牛市行情中，中证军工 涨幅仍然较大，接近军工龙头和中证国防。 感兴趣的投资者可以关注军工ETF（512660），全面布局军工全产业链。 风险提示：不构成个股投资建议，指数涨跌不代表未来。观点随市场环境变化，不构成投资建议。 提及基金风险收益水平各不相同，请选择与自身风险偏好匹配的产品，谨慎投资。基金收益分配原则详 见基金法律文件。 近期，外围扰动再起，今日军工板块领涨市场，军工ETF（512660）涨超2%。 中泰证券表示，当前军工行业受地缘政治风险上升影响，关注度持续提升。俄乌冲突持续，欧洲地 缘风险加剧，带动国际军贸需求增长。 国内方面，中国可回收火箭"朱雀三号"即将首飞，长征十二号成功发射低轨卫星，航天发射能力稳 步提升。可控核聚变、3D打印航空发动机等关键技术取得突破，低空经济政策与产业共振，发展提 速。 未来，军工行业将受益于地缘风险催化、技术进步及政策支持，高端武器装备出口潜力释放，核心 资产价值有望重估。发展驱动因素 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is transitioning from scale expansion to efficiency improvement, positioned in a critical growth phase for civil aircraft production and military product deliveries [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 30.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 999.2 million yuan, up 5.15% year-on-year [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 40.301 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 7.01% year-on-year. For 2024A, the revenue is expected to be 43.216 billion yuan, growing by 7.23% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is forecasted at 860.97 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 64.41%. The projected net profit for 2024A is 1.023 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.87% growth [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 0.31 yuan per share, with projections of 0.37 yuan for 2024A and 0.41 yuan for 2025E [1][8] Cost Management and Profitability - The company has shown improved core profitability, with a decrease in sales expenses by 87.87% to 33 million yuan and a reduction in management expenses by 22.30% to 677 million yuan, effectively offsetting cost pressures [7] - The gross profit margin is reported at 6.79%, slightly down by 0.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin remains stable at 3.28% [7] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 70.58%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved leverage [7] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was -8.229 billion yuan, a significant improvement of 40.04% year-on-year, primarily due to better sales collection [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.139 billion yuan in 2025, 1.339 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.604 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 63, 53, and 45 respectively [1][8]

Group 1 - The military industry sector showed slight gains, with the aerospace ETF (159227) rising over 0.32% as of 10:09 AM, indicating strong market interest in military-related stocks [1] - The military industry is expected to see clearer development guidance in the next three to five years as the "14th Five-Year Plan" is implemented, potentially leading to a recovery in the overall industry chain [1] - Jianghai Securities maintains a long-term positive outlook on the military sector, citing three main reasons: qualitative changes in the defense industry fundamentals, ongoing regional instability driving military trade growth, and the resilience of leading stocks during potential market adjustments [1] Group 2 - The aerospace ETF (159227) closely tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, focusing on key areas of China's military industry and capturing the benefits of rapid development in defense technology [2] - The Guozheng Aerospace Index has significantly outperformed other military indices, with a return of 62.45% from August 26, 2024, to August 26, 2025, surpassing the Zhongzheng National Defense Index (53.81%), Zhongzheng Military Industry Index (56.03%), and Military Leaders Index (44.26%) [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on August 12, with sectors like telecommunications, comprehensive, and home appliances rising, while the defense and military industry led the decline [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) experienced a decline of 2.13% with a trading volume of 113 million yuan, while stocks like Great Wall Industry and Aerospace Development rose against the trend [1] - Historical data indicates that July-August is the peak window for military industry performance, with a success rate of 70%-80% relative to the entire A-share market over the past decade, driven by seasonal delivery patterns, mid-year performance confirmations, and major event expectations [1] Group 2 - Northeast Securities noted that the military industry is entering the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with disturbances largely eliminated and downstream demand showing signs of recovery [1] - The long-term goals for the military industry include achieving modernization by 2035 and building a world-class military by 2050, providing clear guidance for industry development [1] - The Aerospace ETF closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, which has a high concentration in the military industry, with a 97.86% share of the primary military industry, and an aerospace equipment weight of 66.8% [2]

Group 1 - The military industry sector is experiencing significant growth, with the China Securities Military Industry Index (399967) rising by 2.33% as of July 17, 2025, and key stocks such as Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760) increasing by 9.35% [1] - The leading military ETF (512680) has reached a new high in scale at 5.74 billion, ranking among the top two comparable funds, with a recent net inflow of 1.60 billion over three days [1][2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Military Industry Index account for 35.55% of the index, with notable companies like China Shipbuilding (600150) and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760) leading the list [2] Group 2 - Recent earnings forecasts from military companies indicate substantial profit growth, with Aerospace Science and Technology predicting a net profit of 68 million to 95 million for the first half of 2025, a significant increase from 393.33 thousand in the same period last year [2] - The military industry is expected to benefit from both external pressures and internal growth dynamics, driven by the changing global military technology competition landscape and China's strong planning in the military sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with the aerospace and defense sector index declining by 1.13% as of 11:06 AM on July 15, highlighting mixed performance among component stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The aerospace and defense ETF (159227), which tracks the CN5082 index, fell by 1.27% with a trading volume of 52.01 million yuan, marking 13 consecutive trading days of net inflow totaling 312 million yuan, bringing its latest scale to 570 million yuan, the largest among its peers [1] - The CN5082 index shows a high concentration in the military industry, with 98.2% of its components belonging to the military sector, and aerospace equipment accounting for 66.5% of its weight [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The recent public demonstration of the "Jiutian" drone mothership by the China Eastern Military team showcases its capabilities, including a wingspan of 25 meters and a payload of 6 tons, capable of carrying 300 "Xuanbird" suicide drones for saturation attacks [1] - The "Jiutian" system achieved a 92% penetration rate against the US-made "Patriot-3" defense network during simulated confrontations, indicating significant advancements in large drone platforms and potential benefits for the military supply chain [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Dongfang Securities, the military trade sector is expected to become a second growth driver as the industry continues to recover in the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with upstream components and key materials poised to benefit from increased demand [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market indices continued to rise, with significant gains in the communication, electronics, and power equipment sectors, while the defense and military industry saw a rebound after a low opening [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) turned positive with a 0.27% increase, achieving a trading volume of 56.69 million yuan, making it the top ETF in its category [1] - The Aerospace ETF has seen a net inflow of 16.43 million yuan on July 7, marking eight consecutive days of net inflows, totaling 191 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF tracks the National Aerospace Index, with a high weight of 98.2% in the defense and military sector, making it the purest military ETF in the market [2] - The National Aerospace Index has shown higher elasticity compared to other indices, supported by multiple factors driving the aerospace industry [2] - The military industry is expected to see a new wave of order releases due to the intersection of the five-year plan and enhanced global competitiveness, with China's weaponry gaining strong competitiveness in international arms trade [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in defense spending by NATO countries, particularly Germany, which has committed to allocating 5% of its GDP to defense, up from the previous 2% agreed upon in 2014. This shift is seen as a response to changing regional security dynamics and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential conflicts in the Middle East [1]. Group 1: Industry Outlook - The military trade sector is expected to become a second growth driver, with a positive outlook for the military industry as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion. The demand for upstream components and key raw materials is anticipated to increase, benefiting from the demand amplification effect across various military equipment [2]. - Global geopolitical changes are likely to open new growth avenues for the military industry, with domestic demand and foreign trade expected to drive high levels of industry prosperity. Increased defense spending is viewed as a necessary option in the current era of great power competition [2]. - China's military exports are transitioning from low-end, low-cost sales to high-end weapon exports, with significant improvements in the competitiveness of domestic military products on the international stage. This shift is expected to enhance China's global market share in military trade as its international political status rises [2][3]. Group 2: Future Trends - By 2025, military trade and the conversion of military technology into new markets are projected to offer greater elasticity. China's military enterprises are showcasing technological advantages in areas such as drones and fighter jets, positioning the aerospace sector as a core beneficiary [3]. - Future investments in the military sector should focus on gaining "air superiority," reflecting the strategic importance of this capability in modern military operations [3].

Group 1 - The three major indices collectively rose on June 30, with military stocks remaining active, as the CN5082.SZ aerospace and defense index increased by 3.88% [1] - Among the index constituents, Changcheng Military Industry hit the daily limit, Guorui Technology rose over 9%, and Zhongbing Hongjian, Guoke Military Industry, and Neimeng One Machine all increased by over 8% [1] - The Tianhong Aerospace ETF (159241) rose over 4%, leading the market in military industry ETFs, with a trading volume of 30.49 million yuan and a real-time premium rate of 0.1% [1] Group 2 - The 55th Paris Air Show opened on June 16, showcasing numerous Chinese aerospace products, highlighting China's innovative strength and significant achievements [2] - The China Aviation Industry Corporation displayed a full spectrum of military aviation equipment, including fighter jets, transport aircraft, helicopters, and drones, with the J-20 and J-35A making their international debut [2] - According to Zhonghang Securities, the military sector's valuation has reached a new stage due to strong market expectations, indicating a broad upward potential with limited structural adjustment risks [2] Group 3 - With China's increasing prominence on the global stage, the military trade is expected to see significant growth, with a potential turning point in military orders anticipated by 2025 [3] - New technologies aimed at enhancing equipment performance or reducing costs, along with new market directions from military trade and technology transfer, may offer greater flexibility for the military industry [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices on June 24, with the aerospace ETF (159227) showing strong performance, increasing by 0.2% and achieving a transaction volume of 23.31 million yuan, leading its category in both trading volume and scale [1] - The military construction plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" is entering a critical phase for capability integration and delivery, with order demand expected to accelerate as 2025 approaches [1] - The aerospace sector is becoming increasingly important in modern warfare, with high technical barriers and significant value contribution within the military industrial chain [1] Group 2 - The aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, focusing on the aerospace sector within the military industry, and includes leading stocks in combat aircraft [2] - The Guozheng Aerospace Index has a higher concentration in the aerospace sector, with military industry representation at 99.2%, and aerospace equipment accounting for 73% of the index, significantly higher than other indices [2]