好 究 所 行业轮动 [F策略周报 (20250922-20250928) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn 2025年9月29日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF 名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159227 | 航空航天ETF | 13.51 | 继续持有 | 航空装备 (58.23%) | 1 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy based on industry rotation and thematic ETFs, recommending sectors such as agriculture, film and cinema, and aerospace equipment for the upcoming week [2][3]. - The strategy has shown a cumulative net return of approximately -0.21% for the period from September 15 to September 19, 2025, with an excess return of about 0.16% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3][11]. - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 24.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 6.36% [3]. Strategy Update - For the week of September 22, 2025, the model recommends increasing positions in the following ETFs: Grain ETF, Film ETF, Industrial Mother Machine ETF, and Oil & Gas ETF, while continuing to hold Aerospace ETF and Green Electricity ETF [2][10]. - The report includes specific ETFs and their respective weights, indicating a focus on sectors like agriculture (46.77% in Grain ETF) and film (45.35% in Film ETF) [10]. Performance Tracking - The report details the performance of various ETFs over the past week, highlighting that the average return of the ETF portfolio was -0.37%, while the CSI 300 ETF had a return of -0.21% [11]. - The report also notes that certain ETFs, such as the Green Electricity ETF and Aerospace ETF, continue to be held despite recent performance fluctuations [11].

消息面上，《IT时报》记者获悉，相关部门近期将会发放卫星互联网牌照。自7月底以来，我国GW星座发射频率显著提升，从01-05组星的一到两 个月发射间隔缩短到05-07组星的3-5天发射间隔，组网速度明显加快，或表明我国卫星互联网开始进入快速组网期。 中泰证券（600918）认为，2025年是国产星座规模化部署关键年份，需求前景广阔。2025年我国预计发射卫星约2100颗，2035年将达到38410颗。 2025年下半年将迎来可回收火箭密集首飞，有望突破发射成本以及发射频率瓶颈。 8月25日午后，在消息面催化下，卫星互联网概念强势拉升，航天宏图、中国卫星（600118）、和而泰（002402）等概念股涨停，截至14:19，航 空航天ETF(159227)涨幅1.94%，成交额达1.92亿元，稳居同类第一，近期航空航天ETF持续获资金关注，8月以来合计"吸金"1.95亿元，最新规模 达10.21亿元，为全市场规模最大的航空类ETF。 航空航天ETF(159227)紧密跟踪国证航天指数，申万一级军工行业占比高达98.2%，堪称全市场"军工纯度"最高的指数，覆盖航空装备、航天装 备、卫星导航、新材料等关键产业链环节， ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming military parade on September 3, 2025, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, is expected to significantly boost the military industry sector in the short term, but investors should be cautious of potential overexuberance and subsequent corrections [3][19]. Summary by Sections Military Parade Impact - Historical data indicates that military parades have a notable short-term positive effect on military stocks, with significant price increases observed in the months leading up to such events [4][7]. - For instance, the military industry index saw a maximum increase of 47% in July and August 2015 before the 70th anniversary parade, and a 16% increase before the 70th National Day parade in 2019 [4]. Performance of Military ETFs - As of mid-August 2025, military ETFs have shown strong performance, with returns exceeding 19% for several funds since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [16][17]. - The largest military ETF, the military leader ETF (512710.SH), reported a return of 14.8% year-to-date, while other military ETFs also demonstrated robust gains [17]. Valuation Trends - The military industry index has experienced a downward adjustment in valuation since 2017, with a mismatch between industry growth expectations and actual corporate earnings leading to a more rational valuation environment [9][12]. - Although military events can temporarily elevate valuations, the lack of sustained earnings support suggests that the overall downward trend in military sector valuations remains intact [12]. Cautionary Notes - The current rally in military stocks is primarily driven by the anticipation of the September 3 parade, and historical trends indicate that stocks often retreat after such events [19]. - As 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, there may be a reduction in demand for military orders in the latter half of the year, which could further impact stock performance [19].

Group 1 - Aerospace and defense stocks have declined, with Zhongbing Hongjian down over 4%, Aerospace Electronics down over 3%, and China Satellite down over 2% [1] - The ETFs tracking the national aerospace and defense industry index have also dropped approximately 1.5% [1] Group 2 - Specific ETFs related to aerospace and defense show the following price changes: Aerospace ETF (159267) at 1.022, down 1.73%; Aerospace ETF (159227) at 1.194, down 1.57%; Aerospace ETF (159208) at 1.217, down 1.54%; Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) at 1.209, down 1.47% [2] - Analysts suggest that by 2025, new markets from military trade and military technology conversion may offer greater flexibility, with Chinese military enterprises showing technological advantages in drones and fighter jets, making the aerospace sector a core beneficiary [2] - Future investments in the military sector should focus more on seizing "air supremacy" [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting its resilience and cyclical nature, as well as the psychological and technical significance of the 3600-point level in the context of market trends and investor sentiment [2][5][12]. Market Performance - The equity mixed fund index has gained over 16% this year, marking the first time since 2021 that returns have exceeded this level, although it remains below the historical peak of 20% from February 2021 [4]. - The current position of the Shanghai Composite Index is close to significant historical highs, with only a small distance from the October peak of 3674 points and the ten-year peak of 3731 points [5]. Valuation Insights - The current overall valuation of A-shares is at a historically moderate to high level, with the PE ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and Wind All A reaching 92.9%, 72.9%, and 84.3% of their respective five-year percentiles [6]. - As of August 8, the Shanghai Composite Index's PE ratio stands at 15.69 times, significantly lower than that of major US indices, indicating a relative valuation advantage for A-shares [6][8]. Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - The financing balance in the A-share market has increased for three consecutive months, surpassing the 2 trillion yuan mark, a level not seen since the last bull market a decade ago [10]. - The current leverage level in the market is less than half of the peak seen during the 2015 bull market, suggesting that there is still room for capital inflow without overheating [11]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a more nuanced approach to portfolio management, focusing on matching industry exposure with personal risk tolerance and aligning investment styles with market trends [18]. - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing offensive assets for growth with defensive assets to mitigate risks, with an emphasis on dividend strategies and bond funds as stabilizers [19]. Sector Opportunities - The article suggests focusing on structural rotation opportunities, particularly in sectors like banking and small-cap stocks, which have shown leadership in the current market rally [20]. - Upcoming mid-year earnings reports are expected to be pivotal, with sectors like non-ferrous metals and aerospace ETFs likely to perform well based on fundamental support [21]. Long-term Perspective - The article emphasizes the importance of patience and a long-term view in investing, as the market is expected to experience fluctuations rather than a straight upward trajectory [23]. - It highlights the need for investors to focus on understanding market dynamics, their own limitations, and the value of time in investment, rather than being swayed by short-term market noise [26][27].

Group 1 - Aerospace and defense stocks have weakened, with Aerospace Electronics down over 4%, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation down over 3%, and other companies like Guangqi Technology, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry, and AVIC High-Tech down over 2% [1] - The ETF tracking the National Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index has dropped approximately 2% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - Several ETFs related to aerospace and defense have reported declines, with the Tianhong Aerospace ETF at 1.210 down by 2.26%, and other ETFs like 159227 and 159267 also showing declines of 1.97% and 1.83% respectively [2] - Looking ahead to 2025, brokerages suggest that military trade and the transformation of military technology into new markets may present greater elasticity, highlighting the technological advantages of Chinese military enterprises in areas like drones and fighter jets as key growth drivers in military trade [2] - The aerospace and defense sector is identified as a core beneficiary direction, with a future focus on seizing "air supremacy" in military investments [2]

Group 1 - The market has remained above the 3600-point mark for 10 trading days since July 29, indicating a strong upward momentum [1][2] - The A-share market has shown resilience and cyclical behavior, moving from the explosive growth in 2022 to steady gains in recent months [3] - The mixed equity fund index has gained over 16% this year, marking the first time since 2021 that it has surpassed this threshold, although it remains below the historical high of 20% [5] Group 2 - The current position of the Shanghai Composite Index at 3600 points carries significant psychological and technical implications, being close to last year's high of 3674 points and the ten-year peak of 3731 points [6] - The overall valuation of A-shares is at a historically moderate to high level, with the index's PE ratio at 15.69 times and PB ratio at 1.42 times, which is lower than major US indices [9][11] Group 3 - The recent increase in market capitalization and the return of the financing balance to 2 trillion yuan indicates a growing market interest, reminiscent of the last bull market a decade ago [14] - The current leverage level in the market is still below half of the peak seen in 2015, suggesting that there is room for further capital inflow without overheating [16] Group 4 - Investors are showing varied responses at this market juncture, with some considering profit-taking while others are waiting for breakeven [17][18] - Investment strategies should focus on matching industry exposure with personal risk tolerance and aligning investment styles with market trends [20][21] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, and a long-term investment perspective is essential as the capital market's importance grows [27][29] - Investors should focus on understanding market dynamics and their own limitations, emphasizing the value of time in investment [30]

Market Overview - On August 4, major indices in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.66% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 1.55% [1] - Over 900 out of more than 1200 ETFs in the market recorded gains [1] ETF Performance - Gold stock ETFs led the market with significant gains, with the top five ETFs being gold-related [1][3] - The gold stock ETF (517400) achieved a 5.04% increase, marking it as the top performer in the ETF market [3] - Year-to-date, the five gold stock ETFs have all surpassed a 35% increase, with some funds experiencing a doubling of their circulation shares this year [4] Sector Highlights - The aerospace, satellite industry, and robotics ETFs also showed strong performance, with the aerospace ETF (159227) rising by 3.93% [5] - Among the aerospace ETF's 50 constituent stocks, 49 saw gains, with notable increases in stocks like Zhenxin Technology and Changcheng Military Industry, the latter hitting a daily limit up [5][6] Fund Flows - On August 1, the ETF market saw a net inflow of nearly 7 billion yuan, with the money market fund Silver Hua Daily ETF leading with over 2.8 billion yuan in net inflow [2][9] - The top ten ETFs by net inflow on August 1 included seven that closed higher on August 4, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment [9] New Fund Issuance - As of August 4, nearly 40 public funds were launched, including several index funds, indicating a recovery in equity fund issuance compared to the same period last year [12]

Group 1 - The article highlights significant fund performance in sectors such as gold and aerospace, with several gold-related ETFs showing gains exceeding 4% [1][2] - Specific funds mentioned include the Gold Stock ETF (517400) with a gain of 5.04%, and other gold ETFs like 159562 and 159315 with gains of 4.49% and 4.34% respectively [2] - Aerospace ETFs also performed well, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) and Satellite Industry ETF (159218) showing gains of 3.93% and 3.88% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting quality investment tools, with platforms like Sina Finance APP being highlighted for their comprehensive features and services [3][4] - Sina Finance APP covers 98% of market fund products and provides real-time monitoring of over 3000 funds, including ESG data for informed decision-making [3] - The app's "Target Fund Search" tool allows users to input expected annual returns and risk tolerance to find suitable funds, enhancing user experience [3] Group 3 - The trading experience on the Sina Finance APP is noted for its smoothness and convenience, with partnerships with 60 major fund companies to improve liquidity [4] - The app features a "three-tier content funnel" providing timely and rich professional information, including live broadcasts from fund managers sharing investment insights [4] - Community interaction is encouraged through real-time features and a clean environment for discussions, enhancing the overall investment experience [4][5]